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The risk analysis of road tunnels faces a growing complexity in fire scenarios, e.g. caused by new energy carriers. Essentially, such complex scenarios involve many interactions between the tunnel users, the fire source and the safety measures. One example is the alarm of tunnel users either initiated by the perception of smoke or by the fire alarm system. To consider these interactions for the quantification of consequences, e.g. fatalities, risk analysis requires a complex model. However, the complex model can compute in practice only few discrete scenarios due to its high computational cost, whereas risk analysis generally needs the consequences of a high number of random scenarios. Metamodels can solve this contradiction. They are able to approximate the consequences of many random scenarios with low computational cost based on the consequences of few discrete scenarios computed with the complex model. The efficiency of metamodels depends on the required number of these discrete scenarios. In this sense, this dissertation proposes an efficient metamodel within an innovative methodology for risk analysis of road tunnels to allow to consider an increased complexity of scenarios. This metamodel applies the following methods or models: the projection array-based design method specifies the experimental design for the discrete scenarios; the combination of the fire model FDS and the microscopic evacuation model FDS+Evac constitutes the complex model; and moving least squares produces the response surface model. The response surface model approximates the consequences of the random scenarios and therewith introduces an uncertainty, called metamodel uncertainty, which is quantified with the prediction interval method. Additionally, stochastic individual characteristics of tunnel users in discrete scenarios computed with FDS+Evac attribute evacuation uncertainties to the consequences. An original development in this dissertation, the ’direct approach’, directly transfers the evacuation uncertainties of the discrete scenarios to any random scenario. The evaluation of the metamodel in this dissertation shows following results. Firstly, the response surface model sufficiently represents the consequences of the complex model. Secondly, the metamodel uncertainty is also essential for this representation, but the prediction interval method reveals a drawback in the risk analysis. Potential approaches to deal with this drawback are discussed. Finally, the direct approach reproduces the evacuation uncertainty of the complex model which then clearly affects the consequences of random scenarios. Therefore, the consideration of the evacuation uncertainty plays an important role for the risk analysis. Furthermore, the projection array-based design method was adapted in this dissertation with two approaches, namely the combination of the experimental designs for FDS and FDS+Evac as well as their sequential refinement. Both approaches contribute to the efficiency of the metamodel. These results lead to following conclusions. Firstly, the metamodel efficiently integrates the consequences of discrete scenarios into risk analysis and thus allows to consider an increased complexity. Secondly, the metamodel is an advancement for risk analysis not only for road tunnelsbutalsomoregeneralinfiresafetyengineering. Forthesetworeasons,themetamodel might be interesting for other methodologies for risk analysis. In addition, the metamodel is generic and is therefore widely applicable on other issues beside from risk analysis, e.g. to assess the safety of structures related to time-consuming experiments depending on multiple variables.
The simulation of the structural response for impact scenarios strongly requires an accurate simulation of both the impact event as well as the subsequent wave propagation. The numerical modeling of the impact event is intrinsically ill-posed due to the instantaneous changes of velocities in the contact area, leading to unbounded accelerations for decreasing time steps which causes oscillations in the contact stresses. These oscillations then propagate into the bulk material. Using a rate dependent material model, like concrete, they might lead to significant errors and a wrong prediction of the structural response. A regularization is thus required to avoid oscillations in the contact stresses. Another issue is related to the numerical computation of the contact conditions. In impact simulations, the nonlinear contact computation needs to be evaluated in every time step. A segmentation technique of the contact area is accurate but time consuming and may result in a bottleneck for the simulation and implementation, especially for 3D problems. The modeling of the subsequent wave propagation requires small time steps, which is primarily due to accuracy reasons. Implicit schemes are thus not affordable. Explicit time integration schemes are efficient only for diagonal mass matrices, as in this case no solution of a linear system is required. In this work, a coupled finite element - Non-Uniform Rational B-Spline (FE-NURBS) approach is applied to impact problems. The coupled approach uses an intermediate NURBS layer to compute the contact forces between the contacting bodies discretized by FEs. The advantages of a smooth isogeometric contact formulation are used to compute the contact forces. A segmentation of the contact area is avoided and an efficient element-based integration is used. The impact event is regularized using a mesh dependent nonlinear penalty approach. The penalty function is a polynomial which ensures a smooth transition between the noncontact and the contact state during the impact. For finer meshes, the penalty regularization becomes stiffer while still avoiding artificial oscillations in the contact stresses. Efficient higher order space and time discretizations are used to model the wave propagation. Explicit time integration is combined with higher order spectral element spatial discretization.
Concrete is a complex material and can be modeled on various spatial and temporal scales. While simulations on coarse scales are practical for engineering applications, a deeper understanding of the material is gained on finer scales. This is at the cost of an increased numerical effort that can be reduced by the three methods developed and used in this work, each corresponding to one publication.
The coarse spatial scale is related to fully homogenized models. The material is described in a phenomenological approach and the numerous parameters sometimes lack a physical meaning. Resolving the three-phase mesoscopic structure consisting of aggregates, the mortar matrix and the interfaces between them allow to describe similar effects with simpler models.
Zur Bedarfsplanung von Feuerwehren in Städten in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland wurden im Jahr 1998 die Qualitätskriterien Hilfsfrist, Funktionsstärke und Erreichungsgrad für ein standardisiertes Schadensereignis erarbeitet. Das standardisierte Schadensereignis basiert auf Ergebnissen der O.R.B.I.T.-Studie aus dem Jahr 1978. Der dort dargestellte Rauchgas-temperaturverlauf für einen standardisierten Wohnungsbrand stellt Ergebnisse von Brandversuchen in einer Wohnung aus dem Jahr 1939 dar. Die zur Untersuchung herangezogenen Einrichtungsgegenstände bestanden dabei überwiegend aus cellulosehaltigen Materialien wie Holz und Papier. Die zunehmende Verwendung von Werkstoffen auf der Basis von Holz und Polymeren führt jedoch zu einer veränderten stofflichen Zusammensetzung von Einrichtungsgegenständen in Wohnungen. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Dissertation wurde der Einfluss dieser veränderten stofflichen Zusammensetzung von gegenwärtigen Einrichtungsgegenständen auf den Verlauf von Raumbränden sowie auf die damit verbundene Stoff- und Energiefreisetzung während der Brandentstehungs- und Brandausbreitungsphase untersucht. Im Fokus der Untersuchung stand der Raum der Brandentstehung sowie ein angrenzender Raum.
Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass gegenwärtige Einrichtungsgegenstände sowohl im Raum der Brandentstehung als auch in dem angrenzenden Raum zu höheren Rauchgastemperaturen und -konzentrationen führen. Grund hierfür sind neben den höheren Wärmefreisetzungsraten auch die höheren Stoffausbeuten der in den gegenwärtige Einrichtungsgegenständen verwendeten Materialzusammensetzungen. Vor diesem Hintergrund zeigt sich, dass sich die auf Basis der O.R.B.I.T.-Studie definierten Standards nicht mehr als Grundlage zur Bedarfsplanung von Feuerwehren eignen. Diese können mit Hilfe der vorliegenden Ergebnisse einer Prüfung unterzogen werden, um den veränderten Brandverläufen im Rahmen einer zukünftigen Bedarfsplanung gerecht zu werden.