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The main challenge using numerical models as digital twins in real applications is the calibration and validation of the model based on uncertain measurement data. Therefore, model updating approaches which are inverse optimization processes are applied. This requires a huge number of computations of the same numerical model with slightly different model parameters. For that reason, model updating becomes computationally very expensive for real applications.
Model reduction, e.g. the proper generalized decomposition method, is a popular concept to decrease the computational effort of complex numerical simulations. Therefore, a reduced model of the structure of interest is derived and will be used as surrogate model in a Variational Bayesian procedure to create a very efficient digital twin of the structure.
An efficient model updating approach by means of a PGD reduced model with random field material stiffness parameters is shown. The random field allows, to calibrate the model considering parameter changes over the spatial direction. These changes can be caused by local damages as well as by production. As an exemplary application a demonstrator bridge is used. Digital twins can reduce the costs for maintenance and inspections especially for the costly civil infrastructure with high requirements at their performance over the whole lifetime. Currently, the current state of the structure is determined by regular manual and visual inspections within constant intervals. However, the critical sections are often not directly accessible or impossible to be instrumented at all. In this case, model-based approaches where a digital twin is set up can improve the process. Based on this digital twin, a prognosis of the future performance of the structure, e.g. the failure probability, can be computed.
The influences of the reduction degree, the mesh discretization as well as the correlation length in the PGD Bayesian approach are studied by means of the digital twin of a simple pre-stressed concrete two field bridge.
The main challenge in using numerical models as digital twins in real applications for prognosis purposes, such as reliability analysis, is the calibration and validation of the models based on uncertain measurement data. Uncertainties are not limited to the measurement data, but the numerical model itself will not be perfect due to the modelling assumptions.
In this contribution, a probabilistic inference method for model calibration, based on the Bayes’ Theorem, is used to face that issue. Such inference approaches include uncertainties on the data as well as on the model parameters, allowing to compute an a posteriori distribution for the model parameters as well as a noise term reflecting the measured data. However, such probabilistic inference methods require a lot of evaluations of the numerical forward model for different model parameters. An improvement of the efficiency is obtained by replacing the forward model with a reduced model. Model reduction, e.g. the proper generalized decomposition (PGD) method, is a popular concept to decrease the computational effort, where each evaluation of the reduced forward model is a pure less costly function evaluation.
The heterogeneous spatial distribution of material parameters in the forward model is described by a lognormal random field. This allows identifying a variable stiffness over the spatial directions by identifying the random field variables with given measurement data. These changes can e.g. be caused by damage. The lognormal field is approximated as series expansion for the PGD problem.
The derived efficient model identification procedure is shown using a real reinforced prestress demonstrator bridge and stereophotogrammetry measurement data. A digital twin for that demonstrator bridge is build up using a set of measurement data and verified by testing additional measurement data. PGD model error against the FEM model is discussed based on an importance sampling analysis computing the Bayes Factor.