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This presentation explains how the evaluation of technical requirements in regulations effects safety level. This shown by using the Monte-Carlo experiment consequently.
The first step is to explain how deterministic requirements and how probabilistic requirements work. Then the statistical behaviour of the generally unknown basic population can be described and that his behaviour is independent from the regulatory approach. Subsequently, the concept of evaluating sample test results with respect to deterministic requirements is explained. The item “acceptance rate” of the basic population that is behind each sample and behind each individuum in a sample is defined. On this collective understanding, the differences in evaluation between the probabilistic approach PA and the most important RC&S are discussed. Some areas are validated in contradictorily. Then the parameters for acceptance of burst strength in the UN-GTR#13 are varied and opens the door for an accurate improvement of acceptance criteria. Finally, the special aspects of degradation in load cycle testing are shown. There, two aspects must be differentiated, the current reliability and its degradation by ongoing load cycles. This is a convincing argument against the very common opinion, which means that the number of hydraulically tested load cycles pro-vides a figure for the number of acceptable filling cycles.
Safety aspects of the storage containments of hydrogen are independent from the kind of usage: The main criteria is the resistance against the pressure load. On the 2nd level there are aspects specific to the usage as e.g. crash loads etc.
Safety is achieved when the probability (frequency) of a failure during the service life is acceptable!
But an aspect common for all usages is the scatter of properties resulting from the material and the production. Therefore, it is worth to have a look on the current approach of minimum burst ratios from an unknown point of view: the basic populations of a product – based on exemplarily assessments.
According to this approach, several diagrams with Monte-Carlo generated basic populations in new and aged conditions have been shown. Thus, it has been demonstrated that not the conditions at the begin of life are the critical ones. No, the end of life properties are the critical ones.
This has been combined with the acceptance rate of borderline basic populations. The approach of minimum burst ratios leads to the acceptance rate of 40 % and higher for the approval of critical basic populations – critical due to their production scatter.
This problem becomes much more critical when taking into account the unknown effects of degradation and in-service ageing.
Therefore, we cannot support the proposed reduction of minimum burst ratio without having a stronger assessment of production scatter.
Based on the preliminary presentations in this task force it is repeated how a basic population scatters and its degradation influences properties statistically. There is a remainder on the issue of accepting borderline populations due to the minimum burst ratio requirement.
Then it is explained in detail how the analysis of minimum requirements by a Monte-Carlo-simulation works. The result with respect to the further reduced minimum burst ratio of 2.0 is summarised and means a two-step approach of two scatter levels requiring two different minimum burst ratios.
The methods for evaluating batch tests are analysed. A proposal for integration a statistical analysis is described in detail.
Finally, the positive effect of proof testing is shown and its dependence from the real ageing is shown.
This ends in the recommendation to have a stronger and quantitative look on real ageing and to follow the 2 proposed sets of criteria for a safe usage of hydrogen storage systems.