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The risk analysis of road tunnels faces a growing complexity in fire scenarios, e.g. caused by new energy carriers. Essentially, such complex scenarios involve many interactions between the tunnel users, the fire source and the safety measures. One example is the alarm of tunnel users either initiated by the perception of smoke or by the fire alarm system. To consider these interactions for the quantification of consequences, e.g. fatalities, risk analysis requires a complex model. However, the complex model can compute in practice only few discrete scenarios due to its high computational cost, whereas risk analysis generally needs the consequences of a high number of random scenarios. Metamodels can solve this contradiction. They are able to approximate the consequences of many random scenarios with low computational cost based on the consequences of few discrete scenarios computed with the complex model. The efficiency of metamodels depends on the required number of these discrete scenarios. In this sense, this dissertation proposes an efficient metamodel within an innovative methodology for risk analysis of road tunnels to allow to consider an increased complexity of scenarios. This metamodel applies the following methods or models: the projection array-based design method specifies the experimental design for the discrete scenarios; the combination of the fire model FDS and the microscopic evacuation model FDS+Evac constitutes the complex model; and moving least squares produces the response surface model. The response surface model approximates the consequences of the random scenarios and therewith introduces an uncertainty, called metamodel uncertainty, which is quantified with the prediction interval method. Additionally, stochastic individual characteristics of tunnel users in discrete scenarios computed with FDS+Evac attribute evacuation uncertainties to the consequences. An original development in this dissertation, the ’direct approach’, directly transfers the evacuation uncertainties of the discrete scenarios to any random scenario. The evaluation of the metamodel in this dissertation shows following results. Firstly, the response surface model sufficiently represents the consequences of the complex model. Secondly, the metamodel uncertainty is also essential for this representation, but the prediction interval method reveals a drawback in the risk analysis. Potential approaches to deal with this drawback are discussed. Finally, the direct approach reproduces the evacuation uncertainty of the complex model which then clearly affects the consequences of random scenarios. Therefore, the consideration of the evacuation uncertainty plays an important role for the risk analysis. Furthermore, the projection array-based design method was adapted in this dissertation with two approaches, namely the combination of the experimental designs for FDS and FDS+Evac as well as their sequential refinement. Both approaches contribute to the efficiency of the metamodel. These results lead to following conclusions. Firstly, the metamodel efficiently integrates the consequences of discrete scenarios into risk analysis and thus allows to consider an increased complexity. Secondly, the metamodel is an advancement for risk analysis not only for road tunnelsbutalsomoregeneralinfiresafetyengineering. Forthesetworeasons,themetamodel might be interesting for other methodologies for risk analysis. In addition, the metamodel is generic and is therefore widely applicable on other issues beside from risk analysis, e.g. to assess the safety of structures related to time-consuming experiments depending on multiple variables.
Water migration in one-side heated concrete: 4D in-situ CT monitoring of the moisture-clog-effect
(2019)
Explosive spalling due to fire exposure in concrete structures can lead severe damage and, in the worst case, to premature component failure. For this reason, an in situ investigation of water Migration in concrete due to surface heating was undertaken.
During these experiments, a miniaturized concrete specimen within a confining and insulating double-hull was subjected to surface heating during simultaneous X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning. Through the use of subtraction-based Image analysis techniques, it was possible to observe and quantify not only drying within areas of the concrete matrix close to the heated surface, but also the migration of moisture to both pore and matrix regions deeper within the specimen. It was also discovered that the correction of CT images for specimen deformation using DVC and variable detector performance using calibrated image filters significantly improved the quality of the results. This clearly demonstrates the potential of X-ray CT for evaluation of other rapid-density-change phenomena in concrete and other building materials.
Liquefied propane gas (LPG) tanks in a fully engulfing accidental fire experience a fast increase in internal pressure. The result is often a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) that can result in a large fireball and flying debris over a radius of more than 100 meters.
In the last 30 years BAM has carried out more than 30 real scale fire tests on propane storage vessels across three test sites. The primary research goal was to identify systems that can delay or prevent a BLEVE. Early studies started with water deluge systems, and have since moved on to consider alternative protection systems.
It has been shown that an unprotected vessel fails within 10 minutes or less. Tests with different oil and propane fueled fires have given an overview on possible real accidents involving full-engulfing scenarios. LPG tanks of various sizes (2.7 m³, 3.6 m³, 4.8 m³, 6.7 m³) were used with different filling levels. Numerous protection systems, ranging from active systems like water systems to passive thick- and thin-film layers. Also, the degree of thickness of these layers was variated. Pressure relief valves (PRV) have also been investigated, both alone and in combination with protection systems.
This paper gives an overview of the work performed by BAM in the field of BLEVE prevention of protecting system since the last 30 years. It has been shown that e.g. with a full applied coating degree on the tank with and without PRV can be reached an exposition in a test fire scenario a duration of more than 60min. For partly coated tanks with and without PRV the duration time is like an unprotected vessel. Furthermore, it could be shown that the active water system also protects with technically correct design.