TY - CONF A1 - Titscher, Thomas A1 - Robens-Radermacher, Annika A1 - Unger, Jörg F. T1 - Model calibration and damage detection for a digital twin N2 - Numerical models are an essential tool in predicting and monitoring the behavior of civil structures. Inferring the model parameters is a challenging tasks as they are often measured indirectly and are affected by uncertainties. Digital twins couple those models with real-world data and can introduce additional, systematic sensor uncertainties related to the sensor calibration, i.e. uncertain offsets and calibration factors. In this work, the challenges of data processing, parameter identification, model selection and damage detection are explored using a lab-scale cable stayed bridge demonstrator. By combining force measurements in the cables with displacement measurements from both laser and stereo-photogrammetry systems, the elastic parameters of a three-dimensional finite element beam model are inferred. Depending on the number of sensors and the number of datasets used, parametrizing the sensor offsets and factors, leads to model with over 100 parameters. With a real-time solution of the problem in mind, a highly efficient analytical variational Bayesian approach is used to solve it within seconds. An analysis of the required assumptions and limitations of the approach, especially w.r.t. to the computed evidence, is provided by a comparison with dynamic nested sampling in a simplified problem. Finally, by inferring the value of additional damage parameters along the bridge, the method is successfully used to detect the location of an artificially introduced weak spot in the demonstrator bridge. T2 - ECCOMAS 2022 CY - Oslo, Norway DA - 05.06.2022 KW - Bayesian identification KW - Digital twin KW - Variational Bayesian KW - Damage detection PY - 2022 AN - OPUS4-55083 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Titscher, Thomas A1 - Coehlo Lima, Isabela A1 - Unger, Jörg F. T1 - Model selection and model calibration for a digital twin N2 - The quality of a model - and thus its predictive capabilities - is influenced by numerous uncertainties. They include possibly unknown boundary and initial conditions, noise in the data used for its calibration and uncertainties in the model itself. Here, the latter part is not only restricted to uncertain model parameters, but also refers to the choice of the model itself. Inferring these uncertainties in an automatic way allows for an adaption of the model to new data sets and for a reliable, reproducible model assessment. Note that similar concepts apply at the structural level, where a continuously updated digital twin allows virtual measurements at inaccessible positions of the structure and a simulation based lifetime prediction. This work presents an inference workflow that describes the difference of measured data and simulated model responses with a generic interface that is independent from the specific model or even the geometry and can easily incorporate multiple data sources. A variational Bayesian inference algorithm is then used to a) calibrate a set of models to given data and to b) identify the best fitting one. The developed concepts are applied to a bridge Demonstrator equipped with displacement sensors, force sensors and a stereophotogrammetry system to perform a system identification of the material parameters as well as a real-time identification of a moving load. T2 - 6th GAMM AG Data Workshop CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 20.10.2020 KW - Digital twin KW - Demonstrator PY - 2020 AN - OPUS4-51532 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Coelho Lima, Isabela A1 - Robens-Radermacher, Annika A1 - Titscher, Thomas A1 - Kadoke, Daniel A1 - Koutsourelakis, P.-S. A1 - Unger, Jörg F. T1 - Bayesian inference for random field parameters with a goal-oriented quality control of the PGD forwardmodel's accuracy N2 - Numerical models built as virtual-twins of a real structure (digital-twins) are considered the future ofmonitoring systems. Their setup requires the estimation of unknown parameters, which are not directly measurable. Stochastic model identification is then essential, which can be computationally costly and even unfeasible when it comes to real applications. Efficient surrogate models, such as reduced-order method, can be used to overcome this limitation and provide real time model identification. Since their numerical accuracy influences the identification process, the optimal surrogate not only has to be computationally efficient, but also accurate with respect to the identified parameters. This work aims at automatically controlling the Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) surrogate’s numerical accuracy for parameter identification. For this purpose, a sequence of Bayesian model identification problems, in which the surrogate’s accuracy is iteratively increased, is solved with a variational Bayesian inference procedure. The effect of the numerical accuracy on the resulting posteriors probability density functions is analyzed through two metrics, the Bayes Factor (BF) and a criterion based on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. The approach is demonstrated by a simple test example and by two structural problems. The latter aims to identify spatially distributed damage, modeled with a PGD surrogate extended for log-normal random fields, in two different structures: a truss with synthetic data and a small, reinforced bridge with real measurement data. For all examples, the evolution of the KL-based and BF criteria for increased accuracy is shown and their convergence indicates when model refinement no longer affects the identification results. KW - Variational inference KW - Proper generalized decomposition KW - Goal-oriented KW - Digital twin KW - Random field PY - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-555755 SN - 1432-0924 SP - 1 EP - 22 PB - Springer CY - Berlin AN - OPUS4-55575 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -