TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Straub, D. ED - Matos, J.C. ED - Lourenço, P.B. ED - Oliveira, D.V. ED - Branco, J. ED - Proske, D. ED - Silva, R.A. ED - Sousa, H.S. T1 - Cumulative Failure Probability of Deteriorating Structures: Can It Drop? N2 - The reliability of deteriorating structures at time t is quantified by the probability that failure occurs within the period leading up to time t. This probability is often referred to as cumulative failure probability and is equal to the cumulative distribution function of the time to failure. In structural reliability, an estimate of the cumulative failure probability is obtained based on probabilistic Engineering models of the deterioration processes and structural performance. Information on the condition and the loading contained in inspection and monitoring data can be included in the probability estimate through Bayesian updating. Conditioning the probability of failure on the inspection or monitoring outcomes available at time t (e.g. detections or no detection of damages) can lead to a reduction in that probability. Such a drop in the cumulative failure probability might seem counterintuitive since the cumulative failure probability is a non-decreasing function of time. In this paper, we illustrate—with the help of a numerical example—that such a drop is possible because the cumulative probability before and after the updating is not based on the same information, hence not on the same probabilistic model. T2 - 18th International Probabilistic Workshop (IPW 2020) CY - Online meeting DA - 12.05.2021 KW - Deterioration KW - Structural systems KW - Time-variant reliability KW - Bayesian updating KW - Inspection KW - Monitoring PY - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73616-3_18 VL - 153 SP - 253 EP - 264 PB - Springer CY - Cham, Switzerland AN - OPUS4-52769 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Rogge, Andreas A1 - Thöns, S. A1 - Bismut, E. A1 - Straub, D. ED - Caspeele, Robby ED - Taerwe, Luc ED - Frangopol, Dan M. T1 - A sampling-based approach to identifying optimal inspection and repair strategies for offshore jacket structures N2 - Identifying optimal inspection and repair strategies for offshore jacket structures is a challenging task. We pre-sent an approach, which is based on recent developments in the field of risk-based operation and maintenance planning at the structural system level. The approach utilizes heuristics to define inspection and repair strate-gies at the system level and to reduce the search space of possible strategies. For each defined strategy, the expected service life cost of inspection, repair and failure is evaluated based on simulated inspection and re-pair histories. Subset simulation is applied to compute the conditional repair and failure probabilities required for this analysis. It also forms the basis for simulating inspection and repair histories. The strategy that mini-mizes the expected service life cost is the optimal one in the set of pre-selected strategies. The underlying condition and performance model accounts for the stochastic dependence among the deterioration states of the different structural elements and the structural redundancy. The approach is demonstrated in a case study considering a jacket-type frame. In this study, we essentially vary the inspection interval, the minimum num-ber of inspected components and the target reliability, and identify the combination that minimizes the ex-pected total service life cost. T2 - The sixth international symposium on life-cycle civil engineering (IALCCE 2018) CY - Ghent, Belgien DA - 28.10.2018 KW - Offshore steel structures KW - Fatigue KW - Reliability KW - Risk KW - Inspection planning PY - 2019 SN - 978-1-138-62633-1 SN - 978-1-315-22891-4 SP - 1081 EP - 1088 PB - Taylor & Francis Group CY - London AN - OPUS4-46434 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -