TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald T1 - Effect of repair models on risk based optimal inspection strategies for support structures of offshore wind turbines N2 - Owners or operators of offshore wind farms perform inspections to collect information on the condition of the wind turbine support structures and perform repairs if required. These activities are costly and should be optimized. Risk-based methods can be applied to identify inspection and repair strategies that ensure an optimal balance between the expected total service life cost of inspection and repair, and the achieved risk reduction. Such an optimization requires explicit modeling of repairs. In this paper, the impact of different repair models on the results of a risk-based optimization of inspection and repair strategies is quantified in a numerical example considering a jacket-type steel frame subject to high-cycle fatigue. The example showed that, in this specific application, there is no need for detailed modeling of the behavior of repaired welded connections. T2 - 5th International Conference on Smart Monitoring, Assessment and Rehabilitation of Civil Structures (SMAR 2019) CY - Potsdam, Germany DA - 27.08.2019 KW - Risk KW - Reliability KW - Inspection planning KW - Offshore wind turbines PY - 2019 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-488297 UR - https://www.smar2019.org/Portals/smar2019/bb/Th.2.A.4.pdf SP - Paper Th.2.A.4, 1 EP - 8 AN - OPUS4-48829 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Straub, D. ED - Matos, J.C. ED - Lourenço, P.B. ED - Oliveira, D.V. ED - Branco, J. ED - Proske, D. ED - Silva, R.A. ED - Sousa, H.S. T1 - Cumulative Failure Probability of Deteriorating Structures: Can It Drop? N2 - The reliability of deteriorating structures at time t is quantified by the probability that failure occurs within the period leading up to time t. This probability is often referred to as cumulative failure probability and is equal to the cumulative distribution function of the time to failure. In structural reliability, an estimate of the cumulative failure probability is obtained based on probabilistic Engineering models of the deterioration processes and structural performance. Information on the condition and the loading contained in inspection and monitoring data can be included in the probability estimate through Bayesian updating. Conditioning the probability of failure on the inspection or monitoring outcomes available at time t (e.g. detections or no detection of damages) can lead to a reduction in that probability. Such a drop in the cumulative failure probability might seem counterintuitive since the cumulative failure probability is a non-decreasing function of time. In this paper, we illustrate—with the help of a numerical example—that such a drop is possible because the cumulative probability before and after the updating is not based on the same information, hence not on the same probabilistic model. T2 - 18th International Probabilistic Workshop (IPW 2020) CY - Online meeting DA - 12.05.2021 KW - Deterioration KW - Structural systems KW - Time-variant reliability KW - Bayesian updating KW - Inspection KW - Monitoring PY - 2021 DO - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73616-3_18 VL - 153 SP - 253 EP - 264 PB - Springer CY - Cham, Switzerland AN - OPUS4-52769 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -