TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Straub, D. T1 - Cumulative failure probability of deteriorating structures: Can it drop? N2 - The reliability of deteriorating structures at time t is quantified by the probability that failure occurs within the period leading up to time t. This probability is often referred to as cumulative failure probability and is equal to the cumulative distribution function of the time to failure. In structural reliability, an estimate of the cumulative failure probability is obtained based on probabilistic engineering models of the deterioration processes and structural performance. Information on the condition and the loading contained in inspection and monitoring data can be included in the probability estimate through Bayesian updating. Conditioning the probability of failure on the inspection or monitoring outcomes available at time t (e.g. detections or no detection of damages) can lead to a reduction in that probability. Such a drop in the cumulative failure probability might seem counterintuitive since the cumulative failure probability is a non-decreasing function of time. In this paper, we illustrate—with the help of a numerical example—that such a drop is possible because the cumulative probability before and after the updating is not based on the same information, hence not on the same probabilistic model. T2 - 18th Internatinoal Probabilistic Workshop (IPW 2020) CY - Online Meeting DA - 12.05.2021 KW - Deterioration KW - Structural systems KW - Time-variant reliability KW - Bayesian updating KW - Inspection KW - Monitoring PY - 2021 AN - OPUS4-52770 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Artinov, Antoni T1 - Modeling the Relationship between Weld Pool Dynamics and Centerline Solidification Cracking in High Power Laser Beam Welding N2 - The present work deals with the recently confirmed widening of the weld pool interface, known as a bulging effect, and its relevance in high power laser beam welding. A combined experimental and numerical approach is utilized to study the influence of the bulge on the hot cracking formation and the transport of alloying elements in the molten pool. A technique using a quartz glass, a direct-diode laser illumination, a high-speed camera, and two thermal imaging cameras is applied to visualize the weld pool geometry in the longitudinal section. The study examines the relevance of the bulging effect on both, partial and complete penetration, as well as for different sheet thicknesses ranging from 8 mm to 25 mm. The numerical analysis shows that the formation of a bulge region is highly dependent on the penetration depth and occurs above 10 mm penetration depth. The location of the bulge correlates strongly with the cracking location. The obtained experimental and numerical results reveal that the bulging effect increases the hot cracking susceptibility and limits the transfer of alloying elements from the top of the weld pool to the weld root. T2 - Gastvortrag an der Universität Innsbruck, Institut für Konstruktion und Materialwissenschaften CY - Innsbruck, Austria DA - 18.06.2023 KW - Laser beam welding KW - Centerline solidification cracking KW - Bulging KW - Numerical simulation PY - 2024 AN - OPUS4-60333 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald T1 - Bayes‘sche Analyse von Ingenieurmodellen N2 - Der Vortrag zeigt, dass Unsicherheiten in Ingenieurmodellen quantitativ mit Methoden der Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie modelliert werden können. Zusätzlich können durch eine Bayes‘sche Analyse probabilistische Ingenieurmodelle konsistent anhand von Daten „gelernt“ werden. T2 - Workshop "Digitaler Zwilling" des BAM Koptenzzentrums „Modellierung und Simulation“ CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 04.06.2018 KW - Probabilitische Ingenieurmodelle KW - Bayes'sche Analyse PY - 2018 AN - OPUS4-46437 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Simon, Patrick A1 - Hille, Falk A1 - Herrmann, Ralf A1 - Baeßler, Matthias T1 - Vibration-based system identification of a large steel box girder bridge N2 - The Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM) collaborates with TNO to develop a software framework for automated calibration of structural models based on monitoring data. The ultimate goal is to include such models in the asset management process of engineering structures. As a basis for developing the framework, a multi-span road bridge consisting of ten simply supported steel box girders was selected as a test case. Our group measured output-only vibration data from one box girder under ambient conditions. From the data, we determined eigenfrequencies and mode shapes. In parallel, we developed a preliminary structural model of the box girder for the purpose of predicting its modal properties. In this contribution, we provide an overview of the measurement campaign, the operational modal analysis, the structural modeling and qualitatively compare the identified with the predicted modes. As an outlook, we discuss the further steps in the calibration process and future applications of the calibrated model. T2 - XII International Conference on Structural Dynamics (EURODYN 2023) CY - Delft, Netherlands DA - 02.07.2023 KW - Bridge KW - Safety KW - Fatigue KW - Modal system identification KW - Model updating PY - 2023 AN - OPUS4-57863 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Baeßler, Matthias A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Hille, Falk A1 - Herrmann, Ralf A1 - Said, Samir T1 - Anwendung von kontinuierlichen sensor-basierten Monitoringverfahren zur Bewertung von Infrastrukturbauwerken N2 - Kontinuierliche Sensorbasierte Bauwerksmessungen leisten einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Sicherheit von Verkehrsbauwerken. Hierzu werden im Vorhaben AISTec Referenzbauwerke und Referenzverfahren untersucht. Der Vortrag stellt die Expertise des FB 7.2, Herangehensweisen und Projektziele vor´. T2 - Kick-Off AIStec CY - Weimar, Germany DA - 17.10.2018 KW - Zivile Sicherheit KW - Brücken KW - SHM PY - 2018 AN - OPUS4-46325 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Simon, Patrick A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Baeßler, Matthias A1 - Recknagel, Christoph T1 - Enhancing structural models with material tests and static response data - a case study considering a steel beam with asphalt layer subject to temperature variations N2 - Gradual or sudden changes in the state of structural systems caused, for example, by deterioration or accidental load events can influence their load-bearing capacity. Structural changes can be inferred from static and/or dynamic response data measured by structural health monitoring systems. However, they may be masked by variations in the structural response due to varying environmental conditions. Particularly, the interaction of nominally load-bearing components with nominally non-load bearing components exhibiting characteristics that vary as a function of the environmental conditions can significantly affect the monitored structural response. Ignoring these effects may hamper an inference of structural changes from the monitoring data. To address this issue, we adopt a probabilistic model-based framework as a basis for developing digital twins of structural systems that enable a prediction of the structural behavior under varying ambient condition. Within this framework, different types of data obtained from real the structural system can be applied to update the digital twin of the structural system using Bayesian methods and thus enhance predictions of the structural behavior. In this contribution, we implement the framework to develop a digital twin of a simply supported steel beam with an asphalt layer. It is formulated such that it can predict the static response of the beam in function of its temperature. In a climate chamber, the beam was subject to varying temperatures and its static response wass monitored. In addition, tests are performed to determine the temperature-dependent properties of the asphalt material. Bayesian system identification is applied to enhance the predictive capabilities of the digital twin based on the observed data. T2 - International Conference on Structural Health Monitoring of Intelligent Infrastructure (SHMII-10) CY - Online meeting DA - 30.06.2021 KW - Digital twin KW - Structural health monitoring KW - Material tests KW - Bayesian updating PY - 2021 AN - OPUS4-54130 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Zinas, Orestis A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Cuéllar, Pablo A1 - Schepers, Winfried A1 - Baeßler, Matthias A1 - Papaioannou, I. T1 - Potentials of probabilistic approaches in offshore foundation installation N2 - This presentation discusses the potentials of probabilistic methods in offshore foundation installation, from the perspective of probabilistic ground models and data-driven site characterization. We discuss about methodologies for utilizing site-specific geotechnical (CPT) and geological data, aiming to construct an integrated ground model that can predict stratigraphic profiles and useful for geotechnical design parameters at any location within a 3D domain. The predicted parameters and stratigraphy are then used to predict the probability of potential pile tip damage, upon collision with a boulder. T2 - Colloquium Buckling of Offshore Wind Energy Structures CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 14.02.2024 KW - Wind KW - Offshore KW - Buckling KW - Probabilistic KW - Ground PY - 2024 AN - OPUS4-59538 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald T1 - Überwachung von Brücken mit digitalen Methoden N2 - Brücken werden durch Inspektionen und teilweise durch Monitoring überwacht, um Daten und Informationen über den Zustand und die Einwirkungen zu sammeln. Auf deren Grundlage werden Entscheidungen hinsichtlich Maßnahmen zur Gewährleistung der Sicherheit und Verfügbarkeit getroffen. In diesem Vortrag werden die Potentiale der Digitalisierung zur Unterstützung und Verbesserung der Brückenüberwachung diskutiert. Insbesondere werden die Bereiche Datenmanagement, Brückenmodellierung und Entscheidungsfindung betrachtet. T2 - BVPI Arbeitstagung 2022 CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 16.09.2022 KW - Entscheidungsfindung KW - Brücken KW - Überwachung KW - Digitalisierung KW - Datenmanagement KW - Modellierung PY - 2022 AN - OPUS4-55770 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Simon, Patrick A1 - Herrmann, Ralf A1 - Hille, Falk A1 - Baeßler, Matthias T1 - Belastungsversuch und Methodenvalidierung an der Maintalbrücke Gemünden N2 - Im Projekt AISTEC wurden Methoden entwickelt, die der prädiktiven Instandhaltung von Ingenieurbauwerken dienen. Zur Validierung dieser Methoden wurden an einem Referenzbauwerk - der Maintalbrücke Gemünden - Belastungstests durchgeführt. T2 - Abschlussveranstaltung AISTEC CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 02.05.2022 KW - Belastungsfahrt KW - GNSS KW - Einflusslinien PY - 2022 AN - OPUS4-55496 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald T1 - Modeling in support of offshore wind farm end-of-life decision making N2 - The EU member states have set out ambitious long-term goals for deploying offshore wind energy. The installed offshore wind capacity is set to increase from 14.6 GW in 2021 to around 320 GW in 2050. This signifies the role of offshore wind energy as a major contributor to reaching the EU’s climate and energy goals. To ensure that the defined targets are met, a significant number of new wind farms has to be installed and existing wind farms reaching the end of their planned life need to be reused efficiently. Some of the relevant reuse alternatives are lifetime extension, repowering based on the existing support structures and repowering with new turbines. As a basis of the decision-making regarding the reuse of existing offshore wind farm, the expected utility of each relevant option should be determined based on the associated expected rewards, costs and risks. The optimal concept maximizes the utility of the decision-maker and fulfills the existing constraints and requirements. To facilitate such a quantitative decision-making, models and methods have to be developed. In particular, models are required that enable predictions of (a) the condition and performance of the turbines and support structures and (b) the renumeration, costs and consequences of adverse events. These predictions have to consider (a) the governing uncertainties, (b) the available information from the planning, construction, installation and operating phase, (b) potential repair, retrofitting and strengthening schemes and (c) possible monitoring, inspection and maintenance regimes for the future operating phase. Over the past years, several models, methods and tools have been developed at the Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM) to support the structural integrity management of offshore wind turbine substructures. These include: (a) a prototype for reliability-based, system-wide, adaptive planning of inspections of welded steel structures in offshore wind farms, (b) a method for monitoring and risk-informed optimization of inspection and maintenance strategies for jacket structures subject to fatigue, and (c) a probabilistic cost model of inspection and maintenance of welded steel structures in offshore wind farms. This contribution provides an overview on these works and discusses how they can be adapted and extended to support the decision-making regarding lifetime extensions and repowering of offshore wind farms. T2 - 12th International Forum on Engineering Decision Making (12th IFED) CY - Stoos, Switzerland DA - 05.12.2023 KW - Windenergie KW - Offshore Wind KW - Lifetime Extension KW - Repowering PY - 2023 AN - OPUS4-60430 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -