TY - JOUR A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Straub, Daniel T1 - Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation N2 - An efficient approach to reliability analysis of deteriorating structural systems is presented, which considers stochastic dependence among element deterioration. Information on a deteriorating structure obtained through inspection or monitoring is included in the reliability assessment through Bayesian updating of the system deterioration model. The updated system reliability is then obtained through coupling the updated deterioration model with a probabilistic structural model. The underlying high-dimensional structural reliability problems are solved using subset simulation, which is an efficient and robust sampling-based algorithm suitable for such analyses. The approach is demonstrated in two case studies considering a steel frame structure and a Daniels system subjected to high-cycle fatigue. KW - Structural reliability KW - Deterioration KW - Bayesian analysis KW - Inspection KW - Monitoring KW - Subset simulation PY - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2016.09.002 SN - 0167-4730 SN - 1879-3355 VL - 64 SP - 20 EP - 36 PB - Elsevier AN - OPUS4-38218 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Döhler, M. T1 - Damage Detection and Deteriorating Structural Systems N2 - This paper addresses the quantification of the value of damage detection system and algorithm information on the basis of Value of Information (VoI) analysis to enhance the benefit of damage detection information by providing the basis for its optimization before it is performed and implemented. The approach of the quantification the value of damage detection information builds upon the Bayesian decision theory facilitating the utilization of damage detection performance models, which describe the information and its precision on structural system level, facilitating actions to ensure the structural integrity and facilitating to describe the structural system performance and its functionality throughout the service life. The structural system performance is described with its functionality, its deterioration and its behavior under extreme loading. The structural system reliability given the damage detection information is determined utilizing Bayesian updating. The damage detection performance is described with the probability of indication for different component and system damage states taking into account type 1 and type 2 errors. The value of damage detection information is then calculated as the difference between the expected benefits and risks utilizing the damage detection information or not. With an application example of the developed approach based on a deteriorating Pratt truss system, the value of damage detection information is determined,demonstrating the potential of risk reduction and expected cost reduction. T2 - International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring CY - Stanford, CA, USA DA - 12.09.2017 KW - Reliability updating KW - Structural reliability and risks KW - Damage detection KW - Value of information PY - 2017 SN - 978-1-60595-330-4 SP - 1276 EP - 1284 AN - OPUS4-43624 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rogge, Andreas ED - Bucher, Christian ED - Ellingwood, Bruce R. ED - Frangopol, Dan M. T1 - Simulating the service life performance of an inspected group of jacket-type structures N2 - A novel method for risk-based optimization of inspection and repair strategies for deteriorating structural systems has recently been proposed. The method defines heuristics at the system level to reduce the number of possible strategies. For each defined strategy, it computes the updated system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories, and evaluates the associated costs and risk. The expected total service life costs and risk for a strategy are finally determined using Monte Carlo simulation. The optimal strategy minimizes the expected total service life costs and risk. We intend to adopt this approach to optimize inspection, monitoring and repair activities for offshore wind park support structures. As a first step, we simulate – in analogy to an offshore wind park – the service life performance of an inspected group of jacket-type frames. The performance is quantified in terms of the group’s system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories. The underlying system model accounts for the structural redundancy of the frames and the interdependence among their failure events due to similar loading conditions. The model also captures stochastic dependence among the deterioration states of the frames. As part of the simulation process the a-priori unknown outcome of any planned inspection is generated conditional on the outcome of all previous inspections. T2 - 12th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 06.08.2017 KW - Reliability KW - Fatigue KW - Inspection KW - Service life performance KW - Inspection planning PY - 2017 SN - 978-3-903024-28-1 SP - 2738 EP - 2747 PB - TU-MV Media Verlag GmbH CY - Vienna, Austria AN - OPUS4-41344 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -