TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Rücker, Werner ED - Faber, M.H. ED - Köhler, J. ED - Nishijima, K. T1 - On the utilization of monitoring data in an ultimate limit state reliability analysis N2 - This paper describes a structural reliability analysis utilizing monitoring data in the ultimate limit state with consideration of the uncertainties of the monitoring procedure. For this purpose the uncertainties of the monitoring data are modeled utilizing a new framework for the determination of measurement uncertainties. The approach is based on a process equation and Statistical models of observations for the derivation of a posterior measurement uncertainty by Bayesian updating. This facilitates the quantification of a measurement uncertainty using all available data of the measurement process. For the reliability analysis in the ultimate limit state, monitoring data can be utilized as a loading model Information and as proof loading, i.e. resistance model Information. Both approaches are discussed with generic examples and it is shown that the modeling of monitoring data in a reliability analysis can result in a reduction of uncertainties and as a consequence in the reduction of the probability of failure. Furthermore, the proof loading concept is developed further to account for the uncertain characteristic of proof loading due to the measurement uncertainties which is consistent with the framework for the determination of measurement uncertainties. These approaches and findings can be utilized for the assessment of structures for life cycle extension and the design of monitoring Systems. T2 - ICASP 11 - 11th International conference on applications of statistics and probability in civil engineering CY - Zurich, Switzerland DA - 01.08.2011 PY - 2011 SN - 978-0-415-66986-3 SP - 1762 EP - 1769 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London AN - OPUS4-24292 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Bicker, S. A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang T1 - Structural investigations and monitoring results on a prototype of offshore wind turbines of multibrid M5000 series N2 - The concept and technical details of the implementation of the developed integrated monitoring system within the IMO-WIND project are presented. The tasks of the components of the system and its requirements are described. Selected results from the continuous monitoring during operation of the plant M5000_2 regarding the task design verification and dynamic structural analysis are given. T2 - DEWEK 2010 - 10th German wind energy conference CY - Bremen, Germany DA - 2010-11-17 KW - Integrated monitoring system KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Design verification KW - Structural assessment KW - Limit values KW - Load transfer KW - Data management KW - Dynamic analysis KW - Rotor blades KW - Embedded sensors PY - 2011 IS - S03 SP - 1 EP - 5 PB - DEWI GmbH AN - OPUS4-23712 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Integrated Monitoring Systems for Offshore Wind Turbines T2 - 6th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring CY - Stanford, USA DA - 2007-09-11 KW - Integrated Monitoring System KW - Damage Identification KW - Load Monitoring KW - Wind turbines PY - 2007 SP - 1 EP - 8 AN - OPUS4-16280 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Döhler, M. ED - del Grosso, A. E. ED - Basso, P. T1 - Structural reliability updating with stochastic subspace damage detection information N2 - Damage detection algorithms as a part of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) are widely applied in research and industry and have shown their capabilities to efficiently detect structural damages. These algorithms usually compare a model front a safe reference state of a structure to Vibration data from a possibly damaged state. For such a comparison, special properties of real Vibration data introduce uncertainties, such as low signal-to-noise ratios, non-stationary or nonwhite ambient excitation, non-linear behavior and many more. Recently, Statistical damage detection algorithms based on stochastic subspace Identification have been proposed that take into account the uncertainties in the data. Building upon the uncertainty modeling, the next step in the view of the authors is to utilize damage detection algorithm information in the context of the structural reliability theory. Therefore, this paper introduces an approach for the updating of the structural reliability with damage detection algorithm information. Two steps are described namely the determination of a probability of detection (PoD) distribution function for damage detection algorithms accounting for the relevant uncertainties and the concept of Bayesian updating of the structural reliability. The introduced approaches are applied in generic examples. In this way the potential of the utilization of damage detection system information for more reliable structural systems are demonstrated. T2 - EACS 2012 - Smart Structures - 5th European Conference on Structural Control CY - Genoa, Italy DA - 18.06.2012 KW - Stochastic subspace KW - Structural reliability KW - Bayesian updating KW - Probability of detection PY - 2012 SN - 978-88-95023-13-7 IS - Paper #008 SP - 1 EP - 12 PB - Erredi Grafiche Editoriali CY - Genoa AN - OPUS4-26181 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rabe, Frederik A1 - Löhnert, Andrea A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Numerical quantification of fire smoke toxicity in tunnels N2 - Vehicle fires in tunnels can have catastrophic consequences for the road users, the property and traffic inffastructure. To support an evacuation planning, this study simulates the fire smoke toxicity and the smoke layer of a vehicle fire in a full-size test tunnel. The three dimensional prediction of the fire smoke toxicity in the test tunnel is realized by implementing the Fractional Effective Dose and the Fractional Summation concept in a CFD environment. The developed model facilitates to calculate fire scenarios for various types of tunnels and to quantify the hazard e.g. during an evacuation scenario. T2 - ISAVFT 15 - 15th International symposium on aerodynamics, ventilation and fire in tunnels CY - Barcelona, Spain DA - 18.09.2013 KW - Toxicity KW - Fire KW - Smoke KW - Tunnel KW - FED KW - Fractional effective dose PY - 2013 SN - 978-1-85598-137-9 SP - 203 EP - 215 AN - OPUS4-29719 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Berchtold, Florian A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Rogge, Andreas T1 - Review of road tunnel risk assessment - common aspects? N2 - Safety measures like tunnel emergency Ventilation Systems cause high financial costs. Hence, safety measures have to be chosen with the focus on the expected reduction of the consequences like fatalities or damage on structures and in conjunction with the investments. Since 2004, the European directive EU 2004/54/EC proposes therefore the application of risk assessments. Because the EU directive provides only few legal requirements on risk assessments, the methodologies developed on this basis have large differences. After one decade of intensive research, the comparative study now highlights common aspects and differences of several methodologies. T2 - 6th International symposium on tunnel safety and security CY - Marseille, France DA - 12.03.2014 KW - Tunnel KW - System KW - Risk assessment KW - Fire KW - Safety KW - Comparative study PY - 2014 SP - 669 EP - 670 AN - OPUS4-31256 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang ED - Zingoni, A. T1 - SHM strategies, application and measurements on tripod offshore wind energy converters within the German offshore park Alpha Ventus N2 - Prototypes of wind turbines of the megawatt dass are to be built and tested until 2008 within a German offshore wind energy test field in the North Sea (ALPHA VENTUS). To ensure a high operational reliability of offshore wind turbines with economically acceptable repair and maintenance efforts, comprehensive diagnosis and supervision concepts are required. Automatic monitoring Systems will be an essential part of such concepts. Because of the fact, that during Operation there will be static and dynamic interaction between the components ‘structure’, ‘machinery’ and ‘blades’ it is necessary to develop the monitoring techniques in an overall concept. These monitoring Systems are supposed to be applied for the design and testing as well as for the Operation and maintenance phases. In the paper the developed approaches for the measurement of actions and the condition monitoring of all components of an offshore wind energy plant will be shown. T2 - Research and applications in structural engineering, mechanics and computation - 5th International conference on structural engineering, mechanics and computation CY - Cape Town, South Africa DA - 02.09.2013 PY - 2013 SN - 978-1-138-00061-2 SN - 978-1-315-85078-8 SP - 977 EP - 982 PB - CRC Press AN - OPUS4-29104 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir T1 - Design and operation of integrated monitoring systems for offshore wind turbines N2 - To ensure a high operational reliability of future generations of offshore wind conversion systems (OWEC) with economically acceptable repair and maintenance efforts, comprehensive diagnosis and supervision concepts are required. Automatic monitoring systems will be an essential part of such concepts. Because of the fact, that during operation there will be static and dynamic interaction between the components 'structure', 'machinery' and 'blades' it is necessary to develop the monitoring techniques in an overall concept. These monitoring systems are supposed to be applied for the design and testing as well as for the operation and maintenance phases. The used methods are focused on the design requirements for the structure, which are stated in the respective standards and certification guidelines. For the validation of the design, methods are specified which would be also applicable for SHM in the operating condition, e.g. for the evaluation of the structural conditon possibly after the occurrence of damages or changes. The further task consists in the realization of condition monitoring for all components, aiming at early damage detection and the observation of the damage development and its evaluation. Here the task consists of determining with assessment procedures the optimum time for maintenance actions to be carried out. T2 - DEWEK 2008 - 9th German wind energy conference CY - Bremen, Germany DA - 2008-11-26 KW - Integrated monitoring system KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Assessment KW - Damage identification KW - Load monitoring PY - 2008 SP - 1 EP - 4(?) AN - OPUS4-19872 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Straub, D. ED - Deodatis, G. ED - Ellingwood, B.R. ED - Frangopol, D.M. T1 - Effect of different inspections strategies on the reliability of Daniels systems subjected to fatigue N2 - Inspections are an efficient means of enhancing the reliability of redundant structural Systems subjected to fatigue. To investigate the effect of such inspections, we represent the deterioration state of a Daniels System by means of a probabilistic fatigue crack growth model of all elements, which considers stochastic dependence among element fatigue behavior. We include inspection results in the calculation of the System collapse probability through Bayesian updating of the System deterioration state. Based on this approach, we calculate the collapse probability of a deteriorating Daniels System conditional on different inspection strategies in terms of inspection coverage and inspection times. The acceptability of an inspection strategy is verified by comparing the calculated collapse probabilities with maximum acceptable System failure probabilities. This study is a Step towards identifying optimal inspection strategies for redundant structural Systems subjected to fatigue. T2 - 11th International conference on structural safety and reliability - Safety, reliability, risk and life-cycle performance of structures and infrastructures CY - New York, USA DA - 16.06.2013 PY - 2013 SN - 978-1-138-00086-5 SN - 978-1-315-88488-2 SP - 1 EP - 8 PB - CRC Press CY - Leiden, The Netherlands AN - OPUS4-28984 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian ED - Miraglia, S. ED - Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M. ED - Steenbergen, R.D.J.M. ED - Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. T1 - On the value of structural health monitoring N2 - Health monitoring has, over the last 2-3 decades, become a topic of significant interest within the structural engineering research community, but also in the broader areas of civil and mechanical engineering. Whereas the merits of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) are generally appreciated in qualitative terms there has, as of yet, not been reported much fundamental research on the quantification of the benefit of SHM. The present paper addresses the quantification of SHM with basis in the Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis. The starting points are historical and recent developments in the fields of SHM and the quantification of value of information as well as the identification of typical situations in structural engineering in which SHM has the potential to provide value beyond its costs. Subsequently, the theoretical framework which allows for the quantification of the value of information collected through SHM Systems is developed and elaborated. It is shown how the value of information can be quantified to support the assessment and optimization of decisions on whether and how to implement SHM. To illustrate the use of the developed theoretical framework for evaiuating the benefit of SHM an example is provided. The example addresses the life-cycle benefit maximization for offshore jacket structures subject to fatigue crack growth utilizing monitoring of near field fatigue stresses as a means of optimizing risk based inspection and maintenance strategies. T2 - 22nd ESREL conference - Safety, reliability and risk analysis: Beyond the horizon CY - Amsterdam, The Netherlands DA - 29.09.2013 PY - 2014 SN - 978-1-138-00123-7 SP - 2535 EP - 2544 PB - Taylor & Francis AN - OPUS4-29894 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Hu, Wei-Hua A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Rücker, Werner ED - Cunha, A. ED - Caetano, E. ED - Ribeiro, P. ED - Müller, G. T1 - Resonance phenomenon in a wind turbine system under operational conditions N2 - A prototype of wind turbines in 5 megawatt dass was built and tested at the first German offshore wind energy test fteld in the North Sea. In order to investigate dynamic behaviors under a complex state of loads, a continuous dynamic monitoring System was implemented by Federal Institute for Material Research and Testing (BAM). It recorded structural responses and environmental/operational variables from November 2007 to October 2009. This paper presents significant resonance phenomenon due to the interaction in the tower-nacelle System under operational conditions. Modal parameters are automatically estimated by the poly reference Least Square Complex Frequency domain (p-LSCF) method. Campbell plot demonstrates that a three-blade passage frequency and its multiples f3n match with the natural frequencies of the wind turbine System in several modal Orders. The damping estimates decrease and the Vibration amplitude increase significantly. A control System is necessary to minimize the excessive vibrations. T2 - EURODYN 2014 - 9th International conference on structural dynamics CY - Porto, Portugal DA - 30.06.2014 KW - Wind turbine KW - Tower-nacelle system KW - Resonance KW - Continuous dynamic monitoring KW - Automated operational modal analysis PY - 2014 SN - 978-972-752-165-4 SN - 2311-9020 SP - 3619 EP - 3626 AN - OPUS4-32970 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - McMillan, D. T1 - Condition monitoring benefit for offshore wind turbines N2 - As more offshore wind parks are commissioned, the focus will inevitably shift from a planuing, construction and warranty focus to an Operation, maintenance and investment payback focus. In this latter case, both short-term risks associated with wind turbine component assemblies, and longterm risks related to structural integrity of the Support structure, are highly important. This research focuses on the role of condition monitoring to lower costs associated with short-term reliability and long-term asset integrity. This enables comparative estimates of life cycle costs and reduction in uncertainty, both of which are of value to Investors. T2 - PMAPS 2012 - 12th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems CY - Istanbul, Turkey DA - 10.06.2012 KW - Condition monitoring KW - Offshore wind KW - Operation KW - Risk KW - Life cycle KW - Cost KW - Cost benefit analysis KW - Offshore wind turbine KW - Operation management KW - Structural integrity management PY - 2012 SP - 37 EP - 42 PB - Istanbul Technical University CY - Instanbul, Turkey AN - OPUS4-26117 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Straub, D. ED - Strauss, A. ED - Frangopol, D.M. ED - Bergmeister, K. T1 - Probalistic fatigue crack growth modeling for reliability-based inspection planning N2 - The fatigue deterioration modeling for welded steel structures subjected to high cycle fatigue is presented in the current document. The aim of this paper is to formulate approaches based on actual Research results for the phases fatigue crack initiation, fatigue propagation and fatigue failure. The physical characteristics of the approaches are discussed in combination with the associated uncertainties and the probabilistic modeling of this time variant reliability problem. The fatigue deterioration modeling documented here serve as a basis for a reliability-based approach to inspection planning. T2 - 3rd International symposium on life-cycle civil engineering CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 03.10.2012 PY - 2012 SN - 978-0-415-62126-7 SP - 319 EP - 326 PB - CRC Press AN - OPUS4-27067 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Bicker, S. A1 - Rücker, Werner ED - De Roeck, G. ED - Degrande, G. ED - Lombaert, G. ED - Müller, G. T1 - Results from monitoring and assessment of offshore wind turbines N2 - To ensure a high operational reliability of offshore wind turbines (OWEC) with economically acceptable repair and maintenance efforts, comprehensive diagnosis and supervision concepts are required. Automatic monitoring Systems will be an essential part of such concepts. Because of the fact, that during Operation there will be static and dynamic interaction between the components ‘structure’, ‘machinery’ and ‘blades’ it is necessary to develop the monitoring techniques in an overall concept. These monitoring Systems are supposed to be applied for the design and testing as well as for the Operation and maintenance phases. The knowledge of the dynamic behavior of wind turbines is important both for the design and for a safe Operation. The available monitoring data from a period of three years, allow first conclusions on the long-term Operation of such Systems in terms of quality requirements to the instrumentation to the structure and the rotor blades T2 - EURODYN 2011 - 8th International conference on structural dynamics CY - Leuven, Belgium DA - 04.07.2011 KW - Integrated monitoring system KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Structural assessment KW - Limit values KW - Measurement hardware KW - Data management KW - Embedded FBG sensors KW - Data analysis KW - Damage detection KW - Rotor blades PY - 2011 SN - 978-90-760-1931-4 IS - MS25 SP - 3450 EP - 3456 AN - OPUS4-24293 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Grasse, Fabian A1 - Trappe, Volker A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir ED - De Roeck, G. ED - Degrande, G. ED - Lombaert, G. ED - Müller, G. T1 - Structural health monitoring of wind turbine blades by strain measurement and vibration analysis N2 - Wind turbine blades have to withstand a high number of load cycles in mostly hard weather conditions over 20 years. In a research project BAM and several partners have designed, evaluated and tested a condition monitoring system for all parts of a wind turbine. At a rotorblade with a length of 58 m fibre bragg grating sensors were applied for in-service strain measurement. Additionally a complex test rig was designed to enable real biaxial loading conditions at a representative test rotor blade to simulate the mechanical loading conditions in the lab. In this test blade with a length of 8 m also fibre bragg grating sensors were implemented to determine their influences for the structure and the condition monitoring system. Vibration measurements were carried out at different test phases. The results were compared with finite element strain and modal analysis. T2 - EURODYN 2011 - 8th International conference on structural dynamics CY - Leuven, Belgium DA - 04.07.2011 KW - Rotor blade KW - Test blade KW - Modal analysis KW - Condition monitoring PY - 2011 SN - 978-90-760-1931-4 IS - MS25 Tue SP - 3490 EP - 3497 AN - OPUS4-25076 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rogge, Andreas ED - Bucher, Christian ED - Ellingwood, Bruce R. ED - Frangopol, Dan M. T1 - Simulating the service life performance of an inspected group of jacket-type structures N2 - A novel method for risk-based optimization of inspection and repair strategies for deteriorating structural systems has recently been proposed. The method defines heuristics at the system level to reduce the number of possible strategies. For each defined strategy, it computes the updated system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories, and evaluates the associated costs and risk. The expected total service life costs and risk for a strategy are finally determined using Monte Carlo simulation. The optimal strategy minimizes the expected total service life costs and risk. We intend to adopt this approach to optimize inspection, monitoring and repair activities for offshore wind park support structures. As a first step, we simulate – in analogy to an offshore wind park – the service life performance of an inspected group of jacket-type frames. The performance is quantified in terms of the group’s system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories. The underlying system model accounts for the structural redundancy of the frames and the interdependence among their failure events due to similar loading conditions. The model also captures stochastic dependence among the deterioration states of the frames. As part of the simulation process the a-priori unknown outcome of any planned inspection is generated conditional on the outcome of all previous inspections. T2 - 12th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 06.08.2017 KW - Reliability KW - Fatigue KW - Inspection KW - Service life performance KW - Inspection planning PY - 2017 SN - 978-3-903024-28-1 SP - 2738 EP - 2747 PB - TU-MV Media Verlag GmbH CY - Vienna, Austria AN - OPUS4-41344 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Kapoor, M. A1 - Sørensen, J. D. A1 - Ghosh, S. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Decision theoretic approach for identification of optimal proof load with sparse resistance information N2 - Proof load testing may be performed to confirm the reliability of the bridge for an existing classification or to prove the reliability for a higher classification. In this paper, a probabilistic decision analysis approach is applied to the scenario for the evaluation of target proof load in the situation where information on the bridge resistance model is lacking. In this case, the resistance model is established by proof loading and taking very basic prior knowledge into account. The decision scenario is modelled in the context of the proof load test planner who shall choose the required load level for assessment of a bridge. The choice of the load level depends on the risks due to the testing and the expected benefit gain from the test. Information acquired about the loading response from monitoring during the proof load testing is modelled by taking basis in the model uncertainty formulation. The optimal proof load level for classification of a single lane, simply supported bridge of 8m span subjected to live load from very heavy (gross weight > 80 tons) transport vehicles was calculated. The optimal proof load level was identified as leading to a positive expected benefit gain to the decision maker while also satisfying target reliability criteria for remaining service life. The analysis was performed for the evaluation of bridge performance with respect to five classifications of very heavy transport vehicles with different vehicle weights and configurations. T2 - 10th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management (IABMAS) CY - Sapporo, Japan DA - 11.04.2021 KW - Proof load testing KW - Probabilistic decision analysis KW - Bridge resistance model PY - 2021 SN - 978-0-429-27911-9 DO - https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429279119-104 SP - 789 EP - 797 PB - CRC Press CY - Boca Raton, Florida AN - OPUS4-57879 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Straub, D. ED - Strauss, A. ED - Frangopol, D.M. ED - Bergmeister, K. T1 - Reliability-based inspection planning with application to orthotropic bridge deck structures subjected to fatigue N2 - A reliability-based approach to inspection planning for welded steel structures subjected to high cycle fatigue is presented in the current document. Inspections are an effective means to control the Progress of fatigue deterioration and the presented approach allows to determine the minimum required inspection effort so that the considered structure complies with the given risk acceptance criteria in terms of target reliability throughout its service life. T2 - 3rd International symposium on life-cycle civil engineering CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 03.10.2012 PY - 2012 SN - 978-0-415-62126-7 SP - 311 EP - 318 PB - CRC Press AN - OPUS4-27068 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Berchtold, Florian A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Rogge, Andreas A1 - Arnold, L. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian ED - Lönnermark, Anders ED - Ingason, Haukur T1 - Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios N2 - Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and the microscopic evacuation model FDS+Evac. However, the high computational effort of complex models often limits the number of scenarios in practice. To balance this drawback, the scenarios are often simplified. Accordingly, there is a challenge to consider complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement on regions with high metamodel uncertainties; and the combination of two experimental designs for FDS and FDS+Evac. To scrutinise the metamodel, we analysed the effects of three sequential refinement steps on the metamodel itself and on the results of risk analysis. We observed convergence in both after the second step (ten scenarios in FDS, 192 scenarios in FDS+Evac). In comparison to ISTSS 2016, we then ran 20 scenarios in FDS and 800 scenarios in FDS+Evac. Thus, we reduced the number of scenarios remarkably with the improved metamodel. In conclusion, we can now efficiently integrate complex scenarios in risk analysis. We further emphasise that the metamodel is broadly applicable on various experimental or modelling issues in fire safety engineering. T2 - International Symposium on Tunnel Safety and Security CY - Boras, Sweden DA - 14.03.2018 KW - Risk KW - Metamodel KW - CFD KW - Evacuation KW - Uncertainty PY - 2018 SN - 978-91-88695-48-2 VL - 8 SP - 349 EP - 360 AN - OPUS4-44535 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Döhler, M. T1 - The effects of SHM system parameters on the value of damage detection information N2 - This paper addresses how the value of damage detection Information depends on key Parameters of the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) system including number of sensors and sensor locations. The Damage Detection System (DDS) provides the information by comparing ambient vibration measurements of a (healthy) reference state with measurements of the current structural system. The performance of DDS method depends on the physical measurement properties such as the number of sensors, sensor positions, measuring length and sensor type, measurement noise, ambient excitation and sampling frequency, as well as on the data processing algorithm including the chosen type I error for the indication threshold. The quantification of the value of Information (VoI) is an expected utility based Bayesian decision analysis method for quantifying the difference of the expected economic benefits with and without information. The (pre-)posterior probability is computed utilizing the Bayesian updating theorem for all possible indications. If changing any key parameters of DDS, the updated probability of system failure given damage detection information will be varied due to different indication of probability of damage, which will result in changes of value of damage detection information. The DDS system is applied in a statically determinate Pratt truss bridge girder. Through the analysis of the value of information with different SHM system characteristics, the settings of DDS can be optimized for minimum expected costs and risks before implementation. T2 - 9th European Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring CY - Manchester, UK DA - 10.07.2018 KW - SHM KW - Damage detection system KW - Value of information PY - 2018 SP - 375 EP - 384 AN - OPUS4-46190 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -