TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf T1 - Assessment and monitoring of reliability and robustness of offshore wind energy converters T2 - ESREL 2008 CY - Valencia, Spain DA - 2008-09-22 PY - 2008 AN - OPUS4-18076 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Faber, M.H. T1 - Robustness of Offshore Wind Energy Converters T2 - ETH Zürich CY - Zurich, Switzerland DA - 2008-02-05 PY - 2008 AN - OPUS4-18077 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - GEN A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf ED - Martorell, S. ED - et al., T1 - Assessment and monitoring of reliability and robustness of offshore wind energy converters T2 - ESREL 2008 CY - Valencia, Spain DA - 2008-09-22 KW - Structural reliability KW - Robustness KW - Monitoring KW - Risk KW - Wind energy converter PY - 2008 SN - 978-0-415-48513-5 SP - 1567 EP - 1572 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London, UK AN - OPUS4-18565 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Straub, D. ED - Deodatis, G. ED - Ellingwood, B.R. ED - Frangopol, D.M. T1 - Effect of different inspections strategies on the reliability of Daniels systems subjected to fatigue N2 - Inspections are an efficient means of enhancing the reliability of redundant structural Systems subjected to fatigue. To investigate the effect of such inspections, we represent the deterioration state of a Daniels System by means of a probabilistic fatigue crack growth model of all elements, which considers stochastic dependence among element fatigue behavior. We include inspection results in the calculation of the System collapse probability through Bayesian updating of the System deterioration state. Based on this approach, we calculate the collapse probability of a deteriorating Daniels System conditional on different inspection strategies in terms of inspection coverage and inspection times. The acceptability of an inspection strategy is verified by comparing the calculated collapse probabilities with maximum acceptable System failure probabilities. This study is a Step towards identifying optimal inspection strategies for redundant structural Systems subjected to fatigue. T2 - 11th International conference on structural safety and reliability - Safety, reliability, risk and life-cycle performance of structures and infrastructures CY - New York, USA DA - 16.06.2013 PY - 2013 SN - 978-1-138-00086-5 SN - 978-1-315-88488-2 SP - 1 EP - 8 PB - CRC Press CY - Leiden, The Netherlands AN - OPUS4-28984 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Life cycle cost optimized monitoring systems for offshore wind turbine structures N2 - Monitoring information should be utilized to support optimal decisions. In this sense monitoring systems should be designed such as to optimize expected Life Cycle Costs. PY - 2013 SN - 978-3-200-03179-1 IS - Chapter 4 SP - 75 EP - 90 CY - Vienna, Austria AN - OPUS4-29103 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang ED - Zingoni, A. T1 - SHM strategies, application and measurements on tripod offshore wind energy converters within the German offshore park Alpha Ventus N2 - Prototypes of wind turbines of the megawatt dass are to be built and tested until 2008 within a German offshore wind energy test field in the North Sea (ALPHA VENTUS). To ensure a high operational reliability of offshore wind turbines with economically acceptable repair and maintenance efforts, comprehensive diagnosis and supervision concepts are required. Automatic monitoring Systems will be an essential part of such concepts. Because of the fact, that during Operation there will be static and dynamic interaction between the components ‘structure’, ‘machinery’ and ‘blades’ it is necessary to develop the monitoring techniques in an overall concept. These monitoring Systems are supposed to be applied for the design and testing as well as for the Operation and maintenance phases. In the paper the developed approaches for the measurement of actions and the condition monitoring of all components of an offshore wind energy plant will be shown. T2 - Research and applications in structural engineering, mechanics and computation - 5th International conference on structural engineering, mechanics and computation CY - Cape Town, South Africa DA - 02.09.2013 PY - 2013 SN - 978-1-138-00061-2 SN - 978-1-315-85078-8 SP - 977 EP - 982 PB - CRC Press AN - OPUS4-29104 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, Michael H. T1 - On the Value of Structural Health Monitoring T2 - ESREL 2013 Conference CY - Amsterdam, Netherlands DA - 2013-09-29 PY - 2013 AN - OPUS4-29490 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang T1 - Ergebnisse der Dauerüberwachung an einem Prototypen von Offshore-Windenergieanlagen T2 - 3. VDI-Fachtagung - Baudynamik CY - Kassel, Deutschland DA - 2009-05-14 KW - Integrated Monitoring System KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Assessment KW - Damage identification KW - Load monitoring PY - 2009 SN - 978-3-18-092063-4 SN - 0083-5560 VL - 2063 SP - 455 EP - 466 PB - VDI-Verl. CY - Düsseldorf AN - OPUS4-19795 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Hille, Falk A1 - Karabeliov, Krassimire A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Damage detection and risk estimation of bridge S101 T2 - IRIS Summer Academy CY - Zell am See, Austria DA - 2009-04-01 PY - 2009 AN - OPUS4-20495 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Faber, M.H. T1 - Support structure reliability of offshore wind turbines utilizing an adaptive response surface method T2 - OMAE 2010 - 29th International conference on ocean, offshore and arctic engineering CY - Shanghai, China DA - 2010-06-06 PY - 2010 IS - OMAE2010-20546 SP - 1 EP - 10 AN - OPUS4-21666 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Support Structure Reliability of Offshore Wind Turbines Utilizing an Adaptive Response Surface Method T2 - 29th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2010) CY - Shanghai, China DA - 2010-06-06 PY - 2010 AN - OPUS4-21650 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Narasimhan, H. A1 - Schubert, M. T1 - Risikobasierter Ansatz zur Bewertung der Robustheit von Bauwerken N2 - Ziel des vorliegenden Beitrages ist es, einen Überblick über die aktuellen Entwicklungen im Bereich der Bewertung und der Quantifizierung der Robustheit von Bauwerken zu geben. In diesem Sinne ist eine Zusammenstellung von Ansätzen und Ergebnissen aktueller Veröffentlichungen enthalten. Ein umfassender entscheidungstheoretischer Ansatz für die Berechnung und das Management der Robustheit wird vorgestellt. Dieser beinhaltet die Definition der Robustheit als eine Qualität eines Systems, welches das Bauwerk beinhaltet, d. h. eine Qualität, die auf der Grundlage einer Risikoanalyse bewertet werden kann. Um eine umfassende Risikoanalyse zu ermöglichen, wird ein szenarienbasierter Modellansatz eingeführt, welcher zwei Arten von Konsequenzen im System unterscheidet: direkte Konsequenzen (in Verbindung mit Schäden einzelner Komponenten des Systems) und indirekte Konsequenzen (in Verbindung mit einem Versagen des Systems). Die Definition des Systems spielt deshalb für die Risikoanalyse eine wichtige Rolle, und es wird diskutiert, wie die Robustheit für verschiedene Definitionen zu unterschiedlichen Ergebnissen und Erkenntnissen im Sinne des Managements der Integrität des Bauwerks im gesamten Lebenszyklus unter Berücksichtigung seiner Funktionalität führt. Weiterhin werden wichtige Aspekte der Standardisierung der Robustheitsanalyse, wie auch Anforderungen an die Robustheit, diskutiert und Vorschläge zum Umgang mit diesen Aspekten unterbreitet. Auf der Grundlage der vorgestellten Ansätze zur Berechnung der Robustheit eines Bauwerks wird beschrieben, wie Entscheidungen in Bezug auf den Entwurf, die Zustandsbewertung, auf Inspektionen und Wartung sowie in Bezug auf die Überwachung von Bauwerken, in Hinblick auf das Management der Risiken in allen Phasen des Lebenszyklus, optimiert werden können. KW - Qualität KW - Risikoanalyse KW - Modellansatz KW - Konsequenz KW - Direkt KW - Indirekt KW - Versagen KW - Schaden KW - Lebenszyklus KW - Hängebrücke KW - Quality KW - Risk assessment KW - Model approach KW - Consequence KW - Direct KW - Indirect KW - Failure KW - Damage KW - Life-cycle KW - Suspension bridge KW - Entwurf und Konstruktion KW - Berechnungs- und Bemessungsverfahren KW - Bestandssicherung und Erhaltung PY - 2010 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/stab.201001354 SN - 0038-9145 SN - 1437-1049 SN - 0932-6375 VL - 79 IS - 8 SP - 547 EP - 555 PB - Ernst CY - Berlin AN - OPUS4-21862 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Buckling reliability of steel shells utilising the Eurocode 3 methodology T2 - JCSS workshop on FEM and reliability code requirements, TU Delft CY - Delft, Netherlands DA - 2009-12-01 PY - 2009 AN - OPUS4-20910 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Straub, D. ED - Strauss, A. ED - Frangopol, D.M. ED - Bergmeister, K. T1 - Probalistic fatigue crack growth modeling for reliability-based inspection planning N2 - The fatigue deterioration modeling for welded steel structures subjected to high cycle fatigue is presented in the current document. The aim of this paper is to formulate approaches based on actual Research results for the phases fatigue crack initiation, fatigue propagation and fatigue failure. The physical characteristics of the approaches are discussed in combination with the associated uncertainties and the probabilistic modeling of this time variant reliability problem. The fatigue deterioration modeling documented here serve as a basis for a reliability-based approach to inspection planning. T2 - 3rd International symposium on life-cycle civil engineering CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 03.10.2012 PY - 2012 SN - 978-0-415-62126-7 SP - 319 EP - 326 PB - CRC Press AN - OPUS4-27067 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Straub, D. ED - Strauss, A. ED - Frangopol, D.M. ED - Bergmeister, K. T1 - Reliability-based inspection planning with application to orthotropic bridge deck structures subjected to fatigue N2 - A reliability-based approach to inspection planning for welded steel structures subjected to high cycle fatigue is presented in the current document. Inspections are an effective means to control the Progress of fatigue deterioration and the presented approach allows to determine the minimum required inspection effort so that the considered structure complies with the given risk acceptance criteria in terms of target reliability throughout its service life. T2 - 3rd International symposium on life-cycle civil engineering CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 03.10.2012 PY - 2012 SN - 978-0-415-62126-7 SP - 311 EP - 318 PB - CRC Press AN - OPUS4-27068 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Überwachungsverfahren und Tragwerkszuverlässigkeit T2 - Lehrveranstaltung der BTU Cottbus CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2012-01-12 PY - 2012 AN - OPUS4-25416 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - SHM for Infrastructures - Developments in Science and Industry in Europe T2 - Neostrain Workshop on the Design and Optimisation of Monitoring CY - Kraków, Poland DA - 2012-04-19 PY - 2012 AN - OPUS4-25784 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - McMillan, D. T1 - Condition monitoring benefit for offshore wind turbines T2 - PMAPS 2012 - 12th International conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems CY - Istanbul, Turkey DA - 2012-06-10 KW - Condition monitoring KW - Offshore wind KW - Operation KW - Risk KW - Life cycle KW - Cost KW - Cost benefit analysis KW - Offshore wind turbine KW - Operation management KW - Structural integrity management PY - 2012 SP - 37 EP - 42 AN - OPUS4-26117 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - McMillan, D. T1 - Condition Monitoring Benefit for Offshore Wind Turbines T2 - 12th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2012 CY - Istanbul, Turkey DA - 2012-06-10 PY - 2012 AN - OPUS4-26060 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Fatigue and serviceability limit state model basis for assessment of offshore wind energy converters N2 - This paper develops the models for the structural performance of the loading and probabilistic characterization for the fatigue and the serviceability limit states for the support structure of offshore wind energy converters. These models and a sensitivity study are part of a risk based assessment and monitoring framework and will be applied for establishing the 'as designed and constructed' reliability as prior information for the assessment and the design of monitoring systems. The constitutive physical equations are introduced in combination with the fatigue and serviceability limit state requirements as the starting point for the development of the structural performance and loading models. With these models introduced in detail, several modeling aspects for both limit states are analyzed. This includes analyses of the influence on the hot spot stresses by applying a contact formulation for the pile guide brace connection and the application of a finite element formulation using solid elements. Further, the comparison of the natural frequencies of a discrete rotor model with a continuous rotor model is documented. To account for uncertainties associated with the structural and loading models, a probabilistic model is derived on the basis of literature review and measurement data from a prototype Multibrid M5000 support structure. The sensitivity study is based on the calculation of a nonlinear coefficient of correlation in conjunction with predetermined designs of experiments. This is conducted by a systematic analysis of the influence of the random variables on limit state responses and hence on the structural reliability. Integrating the analyses and sensitivity studies of the fatigue and serviceability limit state models developed in this paper as well as the ultimate limit state models in Thöns et al. ('Ultimate Limit State Model Basis for Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Converters,' ASME J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng.), the model basis for the assessment is completed. The process of establishing and analyzing such a model basis contributes to a detailed understanding of the deterministic and probabilistic characteristics of the structure and provides valuable insights in regard to the significance of available data. KW - Fatigue KW - Finite element analysis KW - Rotors KW - Wind power PY - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4004514 SN - 0892-7219 VL - 134 IS - 3 SP - 031905-1 - 031905-10 CY - Fairfield, NJ AN - OPUS4-26437 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rabe, Frederik A1 - Löhnert, Andrea A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Numerical quantification of fire smoke toxicity in tunnels N2 - Vehicle fires in tunnels can have catastrophic consequences for the road users, the property and traffic inffastructure. To support an evacuation planning, this study simulates the fire smoke toxicity and the smoke layer of a vehicle fire in a full-size test tunnel. The three dimensional prediction of the fire smoke toxicity in the test tunnel is realized by implementing the Fractional Effective Dose and the Fractional Summation concept in a CFD environment. The developed model facilitates to calculate fire scenarios for various types of tunnels and to quantify the hazard e.g. during an evacuation scenario. T2 - ISAVFT 15 - 15th International symposium on aerodynamics, ventilation and fire in tunnels CY - Barcelona, Spain DA - 18.09.2013 KW - Toxicity KW - Fire KW - Smoke KW - Tunnel KW - FED KW - Fractional effective dose PY - 2013 SN - 978-1-85598-137-9 SP - 203 EP - 215 AN - OPUS4-29719 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian ED - Miraglia, S. ED - Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M. ED - Steenbergen, R.D.J.M. ED - Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. T1 - On the value of structural health monitoring T2 - 22nd ESREL conference - Safety, reliability and risk analysis: Beyond the horizon CY - Amsterdam, The Netherlands DA - 2013-09-29 PY - 2014 SN - 978-1-138-00123-7 SP - 2535 EP - 2544 PB - Taylor & Francis AN - OPUS4-29894 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Lanata, F. T1 - RISK AND OPERATION OPTIMIZED DAMAGE DETECTION AND INSPECTION SYSTEMS T2 - ICOSSAR 2013, 11 th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability CY - New York, NY, USA DA - 2013-06-16 PY - 2013 AN - OPUS4-28819 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, Michael H. T1 - Assessing the Value of Structural Health Monitoring T2 - ICOSSAR 2013, 11th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability CY - New York, NY, USA DA - 2013-06-16 PY - 2013 AN - OPUS4-28820 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - SHM for Life Cycle Benefits T2 - International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring 2013 (WSHM 2013) CY - Stanford, CA, USA DA - 2013-09-09 PY - 2013 AN - OPUS4-29181 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - SHM Standardisation Aspects T2 - International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring 2013 (WSHM 2013) CY - Stanford, CA, USA DA - 2013-09-09 PY - 2013 AN - OPUS4-29182 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang T1 - SHM Strategies, application and measurements on tripod offshore wind energy converters within the German Offshore Park Alpha Ventus T2 - The Fifth International Conference on Structural Engineering, Mechanics and Computation (SEMC 2013) CY - Cape Town, South Africa DA - 2013-09-01 PY - 2013 AN - OPUS4-29183 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - GEN A1 - Farhan, Muhammad A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Corrigendum to Predictive information and maintenance optimization based on decision theory: a case study considering a welded joint in an offshore wind turbine support structure N2 - This article has been revised and republished due to substantial changes to the text of the original article, as published Online First on January 31, 2021. Most of the change were minor grammatical changes. The following changes are more significant and will be highlighted below. KW - Integrity management KW - Decision theory KW - Value of information KW - Structural reliability KW - Fracture mechanics KW - Fatigue KW - Predictive maintenance KW - Wind turbine support structure PY - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/14759217211040385 SN - 1475-9217 VL - 21 IS - 4 SP - 1956 EP - 1956 PB - Sage Publications CY - London AN - OPUS4-55165 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zhang, W.-H. A1 - Qin, J. A1 - Lu, D.-G. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Havbro Faber, M. T1 - Vol-informed decision-making for SHM system arrangement N2 - Structural health monitoring systems have been widely implemented to provide real-time continuous data support and to ensure structural safety in the context of structural integrity management. However, the quantification of the potential benefits of structural health monitoring systems has not yet attracted widespread attention. At the same time, there is an urgent need to develop strategies, such as optimizing the monitoring period, monitoring variables, and other factors, to maximize the potential benefits of structural health monitoring systems. Considering the continuity of structural health monitoring information, a framework is developed in this article to support decision-making for structural Health monitoring systems arrangement in the context of structural integrity management, which integrates the concepts of value of information and risk-based inspection planning based on an approach which utilizes a conjugate prior probability distribution for updating of the probabilistic models of structural performances based on structural health Monitoring information. An example considering fatigue degradation of steel structures is investigated to illustrate the application of the proposed framework. The considered example shows that the choice of monitoring variables, the Monitoring period, and the monitoring quality may be consistently optimized by the application of the proposed framework and approach. Finally, discussions and conclusions are provided to clarify the potential benefits of the proposed Framework with a special view to practical applications of structural health monitoring systems. KW - Value of information KW - Structural health monitoring systems arrangement strategy KW - Structural integrity management KW - Rskbased inspection KW - Structural health monitoring information model PY - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/1475921720962736 SN - 1475-9217 VL - 21 IS - 1 SP - 37 EP - 58 PB - SAGE Journals CY - USA AN - OPUS4-53064 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Alcover, I. F. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Utility analysis for SHM durations and service life extension of welds on steel bridge deck N2 - Optimization of the duration of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) campaigns is rarely performed. This article provides a utility-based solution to posteriorly determine: i) optimal monitoring Durations and ii) the extension of the service life of the welds on a steel bridge deck. The approach is Illustrated with a case study focusing on remaining fatigue life estimation of the welds on the orthotropic steel deck of the Great Belt Bridge, in Denmark. The identification of the optimal monitoring duration and the decision about extending the service life of the welds are modelled by maximizing the expected benefits and minimizing the structural risks. The results are a parametric analysis, mainly on the effect of the target probability, benefit, cost of failure, cost of rehabilitation, cost of monitoring and Discount rate on the posterior utilities of monitoring strategies and the choice of service life considering the risk variability and the costs and benefits models. The results show that the decision on short-term monitoring, i.e., 1 week every six months, is overall the most valued SHM strategy. In addition, it is found that the target probability is the most sensitive parameter affecting the optimal SHM Durations and service life extension of the welds. KW - Fatigue KW - Monitoring strategy KW - Orthotropic steel deck KW - Structural health monitoring KW - Utility and decision theory PY - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-521719 SN - 1573-2479 VL - 18 IS - 4 SP - 492 EP - 504 PB - Taylor Francis Online AN - OPUS4-52171 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Farhan, Muhammad A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Predictive information and maintenance optimization based on decision theory: a case study considering a welded joint in an offshore wind turbine support structure N2 - Predictive information and maintenance optimization for deteriorating structures is concerned with scheduling (a) the collection of information by inspection and monitoring and (b) maintenance actions such as repair, replacement, and retrofitting based on updated predictions of the future condition of the structural system. In this article, we consider the problem of jointly identifying—at the beginning of the service life—the optimal inspection time and repair strategy for a generic welded joint in a generic offshore wind turbine structure subject to fatigue. The optimization is performed based on different types of decision analyses including value of information analyses to quantify the expected service life cost encompassing inspection, repair, and fatigue damage for all relevant combinations of inspection time, repair method, and repair time. Based on the analysis of the expected service life cost, the optimal inspection time, repair method, and repair time are identified. Possible repair methods for a welded joint in an offshore environment include welding and grinding, for which detailed models are formulated and utilized to update the joint’s fatigue performance. The decision analyses reveal that an inspection should be scheduled approximately at mid-service life of the welded joint. A repair should be performed in the same year after an indication and measurement of a fatigue crack given an optimal inspection scheduling. This article concludes with a discussion on the results obtained from the decision and value of information analyses. KW - Integrity management KW - Value of information KW - Decision theory KW - Structural reliability KW - Fracture mechanics KW - Fatigue KW - Predictive maintenance KW - Wind turbine support structure PY - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/1475921720981833 SN - 1475-9217 SN - 1741-3168 PB - Sage Publications CY - London AN - OPUS4-52771 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Kinne, Marko A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Reconstructing Stress Resultants in Wind Turbine Towers Based on Strain Measurements N2 - Support structures of offshore wind turbines are subject to cyclic stresses generated by different time-variant random loadings such as wind, waves, and currents in combinationwith the excitation by the rotor. In the design phase, the cyclic demand on wind turbine support structure is calculated and forecasted with semi or fully probabilistic engineering models. In some cases, additional cyclic stresses may be induced by construction deviations, unbalanced rotor masses and structural dynamic phenomena such as, for example, the Sommerfeld effect. Both, the significant uncertainties in the design and a validation of absence of unforeseen adverse dynamic phenomena necessitate the employment of measurement Systems on the support structures. The quality of the measurements of the cyclic demand on the support structures depends on (a) the precision of the measurement System consisting of sensors, amplifier and data normalization and (b) algorithms for analyzing and converting data to structural health information. This paper presents the probabilistic modelling and analysis of uncertainties in strain measurements performed for the purposes of reconstructing stress resultants in wind turbine towers. It is shown how the uncertainties in the strain measurements affect the uncertainty in the individual components of the reconstructed forces and moments. The analysis identifies the components of the vector of stress resultants that can be reconstructed with sufficient precision. T2 - International Conference on Uncertainty in Mechanical Engineering - ICUME CY - Online meeting DA - 07.06.2021 KW - Reconstruction of stress resultants KW - Strain measurements KW - Bayesian updating of measurement uncertainties PY - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-527987 SP - 224 EP - 235 PB - Springer AN - OPUS4-52798 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Fischer, J. A1 - Straub, D. A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Intelligente Brücke - Zuverlässigkeitsbasierte Bewertung von Brückenbauwerken unter Berücksichtigung von Inspektions- und Überwachungsergebnissen N2 - Der vorliegende Bericht beschreibt Konzepte für eine intelligente Brücke auf der Grundlage einer zuverlässigkeitsbasierten Zustandsbewertung unter Berücksichtigung von Bauwerksinformationen, welche aus Prüfungen, Inspektionen und Überwachung gewonnen werden. Das Brückensystem wird durch ein Modell beschrieben, welches den zentralen Teil des Konzeptes darstellt. Das Modell wird in Schädigungsmodelle und ein Tragwerkssystem-Modell unterteilt. Dieses Modell wird a-priori durch die Eingangsdaten (welche etwa die Geometrie, die Materialien und die Verwendung der Brücke beschreiben) charakterisiert. Aus diesen ergeben sich dann auch die Ausgangsmodelle. Um die signifikanten Streuungen und Unsicherheiten adäquat abzubilden sind diese Modelle probabilistisch. Das Modell liefert eine sich kontinuierlich ändernde probabilistische Zustandsbewertung. Die Zustandsbewertung gibt eine Aussage über den Zustand und die Zuverlässigkeit des Brückensystems und seiner Bauteile und dient als Grundlage für die Planung und die Optimierung von Maßnahmen. Die Verwendung von Resultaten aus Inspektionen, Prüfungen und Überwachungen erfolgt durch eine Aktualisierung der Modellparameter. Die Aktualisierung beruht auf der Methode der Bayes'schen Aktualisierung und wird auf der Grundlage der entwickelten Klassifizierung der Bauwerksinformationen mit entsprechenden Methoden durchgeführt. Dieses Verfahren erlaubt es, alle Informationen in konsistenter Weise in ein einziges Modell einfließen zu lassen. Dabei wird die Genauigkeit und Aussagekraft der gewonnenen Daten und Beobachtungen explizit berücksichtigt. Durch die Aktualisierung der Modellparameter unter Berücksichtigung von Systemeffekten wird die Zustandsbewertung der Bauteile und des Brückensystems aktualisiert. Das ermöglicht die Planung und die Optimierung von Maßnahmen unter Berücksichtigung der Bauwerksinformationen. Auf diese Weise wird die intelligente Brücke mit Inspektionen und Überwachungen zu einem adaptiven System, welches sich Veränderungen anpassen kann.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This report describes concepts for an intelligent bridge on the basis of a reliability-based condition assessment utilizing inspection and monitoring data. The central part of the concept is a model describing the bridge system. The overall bridge model is comprised of deterioration models and a mechanical system model of the structure. The model is a-priori characterized by the input data (such as the geometry, the materials, and the utilization of the bridge). Significant uncertainties in the deterioration modeling as well as the load conditions motivate a probabilistic modeling. The model enables a continuously updated probabilistic condition assessment. It provides information about the condition and the reliability of the bridge system and its components and serves as a basis for the planning and the optimization of maintenance actions. Inspection, measurement, and monitoring information are included by updating the model parameters. Bayesian updating is utilized for the updating of the model parameters and is performed on the basis of the developed classification of structural information and the corresponding procedures. These methodologies allow to consistently incorporate all available information into the model and the prediction. Thereby, the precision and the validity of the data and observations are explicitly accounted for. The condition assessment of the bridge system and its components is updated by updating the model parameters, and maintenance actions can be planned and optimized taking into account all available information in a rational and consistent manner. In this way, the intelligent bridge with inspections, measurements, and monitoring information becomes an adaptive system, which has the ability to adjust to changes. KW - Berechnung KW - Brücke KW - Dauerhaftigkeit KW - Deutschland KW - Echtzeit KW - Forschungsbericht KW - Kontinuierlich KW - Kontrolle KW - Messung KW - Prognose KW - Prüfverfahren KW - Rechenmodell KW - Sachschaden KW - Tragfähigkeit KW - Wahrscheinlichkeit KW - Zustandsbewertung PY - 2014 UR - http://bast.opus.hbz-nrw.de/volltexte/2014/768/pdf/BASt_B_99_ELBA_PDF.pdf SN - 978-3-95606-078-6 SN - 0943-9293 IS - B 99 SP - 1 EP - 111 PB - Fachverlag NW in der Carl Schünemann Verlag GmbH CY - Bremen AN - OPUS4-31300 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Berchtold, Florian A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Rogge, Andreas T1 - Review of road tunnel risk assessment - common aspects? N2 - Safety measures like tunnel emergency Ventilation Systems cause high financial costs. Hence, safety measures have to be chosen with the focus on the expected reduction of the consequences like fatalities or damage on structures and in conjunction with the investments. Since 2004, the European directive EU 2004/54/EC proposes therefore the application of risk assessments. Because the EU directive provides only few legal requirements on risk assessments, the methodologies developed on this basis have large differences. After one decade of intensive research, the comparative study now highlights common aspects and differences of several methodologies. T2 - 6th International symposium on tunnel safety and security CY - Marseille, France DA - 12.03.2014 KW - Tunnel KW - System KW - Risk assessment KW - Fire KW - Safety KW - Comparative study PY - 2014 SP - 669 EP - 670 AN - OPUS4-31256 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - GEN A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - McMillan, D. ED - Karki, R. ED - Billinton, R. ED - Vermar, A.K. T1 - Condition monitoring benefit for operation support of offshore wind turbines N2 - As more offshore wind parks are commissioned, the focus will inevitably shift from a planning, construction, and warranty focus to an operation, maintenance, and investment payback focus. In this latter case, both short-term risks associated with wind turbine component assemblies, and long-term risks related to integrity of the support structure, are highly important. This research focuses on the role of condition monitoring to lower costs and risks associated with short-term reliability and long-term asset integrity. This enables comparative estimates of the life cycle costs and reduction in uncertainty, both of which are of value to investors. KW - Condition monitoring KW - Offshore wind KW - OperationRisk KW - Life cycle cost PY - 2014 SN - 978-81-322-1797-8 SN - 978-81-322-1798-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-1798-5_11 N1 - Serientitel: Reliable and sustainable electric power and energy systems management – Series title: Reliable and sustainable electric power and energy systems management SP - 169 EP - 182 PB - Springer AN - OPUS4-31275 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir T1 - Design and operation of integrated monitoring systems for offshore wind turbines N2 - To ensure a high operational reliability of future generations of offshore wind conversion systems (OWEC) with economically acceptable repair and maintenance efforts, comprehensive diagnosis and supervision concepts are required. Automatic monitoring systems will be an essential part of such concepts. Because of the fact, that during operation there will be static and dynamic interaction between the components 'structure', 'machinery' and 'blades' it is necessary to develop the monitoring techniques in an overall concept. These monitoring systems are supposed to be applied for the design and testing as well as for the operation and maintenance phases. The used methods are focused on the design requirements for the structure, which are stated in the respective standards and certification guidelines. For the validation of the design, methods are specified which would be also applicable for SHM in the operating condition, e.g. for the evaluation of the structural conditon possibly after the occurrence of damages or changes. The further task consists in the realization of condition monitoring for all components, aiming at early damage detection and the observation of the damage development and its evaluation. Here the task consists of determining with assessment procedures the optimum time for maintenance actions to be carried out. T2 - DEWEK 2008 - 9th German wind energy conference CY - Bremen, Germany DA - 2008-11-26 KW - Integrated monitoring system KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Assessment KW - Damage identification KW - Load monitoring PY - 2008 SP - 1 EP - 4(?) AN - OPUS4-19872 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - IMO-WIND - Tragwerkszuverlässigkeit in einem industrienahen Forschungsprojekt T2 - Vortrag an der TU Berlin CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2007-01-29 PY - 2007 AN - OPUS4-18961 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Integral Monitoring System for Offshore Wind Turbines T2 - IRIS Summer Academy CY - Zell am See, Austria DA - 2009-04-01 PY - 2009 AN - OPUS4-20076 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Bicker, S. T1 - Design-Verifikation von Offshore-Windenergieanlagen mit Hilfe integraler Überwachungssysteme T2 - Finales Statusseminar zum Forschungsvorhaben IMO-WIND CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2009-10-01 PY - 2009 AN - OPUS4-20077 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Monitoring- und Risikoanalyseverfahren am Beispriel von Offshore-Windenergieanlagen T2 - BAM Kolloquium CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2009-09-30 PY - 2009 AN - OPUS4-20078 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf T1 - Probabilistische Zustandsbewertungsverfahren für Offshore-Windenergieanlagen T2 - IMO-WIND Statusseminar, BAM CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2009-10-01 PY - 2009 AN - OPUS4-20079 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Integrated monitoring of offshore wind turbines - requirements, concepts and experiences N2 - Wind turbines on offshore sites (OWECs) are subjected to combined loads from wind and waves. These dynamic loads, with a frequency content within the range of the natural frequencies of the structures, cause fatigue-effective stresses in the substructures of wind turbines. Therefore, the examination of natural frequencies is an important part within the design process of wind turbines. The quality of the numerical models for such calculations is of great importance, since the certification guidelines permit only small uncertainties in modal analysis results. The accuracy of the parameters of the numerical model can only be achieved through a comparison of simulation results with corresponding test results. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the dynamic behaviour of all components of the wind turbines simultaneously. This is true not only for the design verification, but also for monitoring the OWECs in operation. The potential of integrated systems for monitoring-based maintenance optimisation should thus be used. KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Integrated monitoring system KW - Structural assessment KW - Damage indicators KW - Dynamic loads KW - Data management PY - 2010 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/15732470903068706 SN - 1573-2479 SN - 1744-8980 VL - 6 IS - 5 SP - 575 EP - 591 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London AN - OPUS4-21452 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Integrated structural risk assessment for offshore wind turbines T2 - IRIS Summer Academy 2010 CY - Zell am See, Austria DA - 2010-09-12 PY - 2010 AN - OPUS4-22630 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Utilization of Monitoring and Damage Detection Procedures for Risk Optimization and Operation Support. T2 - IRIS Week 2010 CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 2010-11-10 PY - 2010 AN - OPUS4-22631 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Überwachung von Brückenbauwerken in Deutschland T2 - Seminar zu ausgewählten Problemstellungen beim Entwerfen, dem Bau und der Überwachung, aktueller Brückenbauprojekte. CY - Gdansk, Poland DA - 2011-06-14 PY - 2011 AN - OPUS4-23995 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - On the utilization of monitoring data in an ultimate limit state reliability analysis T2 - 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) CY - Zurich, Switzerland DA - 2011-08-01 PY - 2011 AN - OPUS4-24163 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf T1 - Messkonzept für die Strukturüberwachung der Multibrid M5000 T2 - InnoNet-Status-Seminar CY - Bremen, Germany DA - 2006-11-21 PY - 2006 AN - OPUS4-18628 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Risikobasierte Überwachungsverfahren zur Lebensdauerverlängerung von bestehenden und neuen Bauwerken. T2 - DVM-Tag 2011: Bauteilzuverlässigkeit - Schäden und ihre Vermeidung, BAM CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2011-05-04 PY - 2011 AN - OPUS4-23683 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Risikobasierte Überwachungsverfahren zur Lebensdauerverlängerung von bestehenden und neuen Bauwerken T1 - Risk based condition monitoring for life cycle extension of structures N2 - Diese Veröffentlichung enthält Konzepte zur Lebensdauerverlängerung von Bauwerken auf der Grundlage der Tragwerkszuverlässigkeitstheorie. Es werden aktuelle Forschungsergebnisse aus nationalen und europäischen Forschungsvorhaben vorgestellt. Den Schwerpunkt bildet die Verwendung von Bauwerksüberwachungsdaten unter Berücksichtigung von Messunsicherheiten zur Bestimmung der Tragwerkszuverlässigkeit. Dazu wird ein neuer Ansatz zur Bestimmung der A-posteriori Messunsicherheit vorgestellt. Es wird gezeigt, aufgrund welcher Eigenschaften der verwendeten probabilistischen Modelle die Zuverlässigkeit im Grenzzustand der Ermüdung in Bezug auf eine Lebensdauerverlängerung beeinflusst werden kann. N2 - This paper contains approaches aiming at the life cycle extension of structures on the basis of the structural reliability theory. Actual research results are presented with the focusing on the utilisation of monitoring data for the structural reliability analysis. In this context a framework for the determination of the posterior measurement uncertainty applying Bayesian Updating the process equation based measurement uncertainty with the Observation based measurement uncertainty is introduced. The general concepts for the utilisation of monitoring data and inspection data for updating the structural reliability in the view of life cycle extension are outlined. The characteristics of monitoring data in the context of the structural reliability theory are shown in detail on the basis of an example. T2 - DVM-Tag 2011 - Bauteilzuverlässigkeit - Schäden und ihre Vermeidung CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 04.05.2011 KW - Lebensdauerverlängerung KW - Tragwerkszuverlässigkeit KW - Messunsicherheit KW - Bauwerksüberwachung KW - Life cycle extension KW - Structural reliability KW - Measurement uncertainty KW - Structural monitoring PY - 2011 SN - 0946-5987 N1 - Serientitel: DVM-Bericht – Series title: DVM-Bericht IS - 678 SP - 1 EP - 10 AN - OPUS4-23720 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Bicker, S. A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang T1 - Structural investigations and monitoring results on a prototype of offshore wind turbines of multibrid M5000 series N2 - The concept and technical details of the implementation of the developed integrated monitoring system within the IMO-WIND project are presented. The tasks of the components of the system and its requirements are described. Selected results from the continuous monitoring during operation of the plant M5000_2 regarding the task design verification and dynamic structural analysis are given. T2 - DEWEK 2010 - 10th German wind energy conference CY - Bremen, Germany DA - 2010-11-17 KW - Integrated monitoring system KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Design verification KW - Structural assessment KW - Limit values KW - Load transfer KW - Data management KW - Dynamic analysis KW - Rotor blades KW - Embedded sensors PY - 2011 IS - S03 SP - 1 EP - 5 PB - DEWI GmbH AN - OPUS4-23712 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Rücker, Werner ED - Faber, M.H. ED - Köhler, J. ED - Nishijima, K. T1 - On the utilization of monitoring data in an ultimate limit state reliability analysis N2 - This paper describes a structural reliability analysis utilizing monitoring data in the ultimate limit state with consideration of the uncertainties of the monitoring procedure. For this purpose the uncertainties of the monitoring data are modeled utilizing a new framework for the determination of measurement uncertainties. The approach is based on a process equation and Statistical models of observations for the derivation of a posterior measurement uncertainty by Bayesian updating. This facilitates the quantification of a measurement uncertainty using all available data of the measurement process. For the reliability analysis in the ultimate limit state, monitoring data can be utilized as a loading model Information and as proof loading, i.e. resistance model Information. Both approaches are discussed with generic examples and it is shown that the modeling of monitoring data in a reliability analysis can result in a reduction of uncertainties and as a consequence in the reduction of the probability of failure. Furthermore, the proof loading concept is developed further to account for the uncertain characteristic of proof loading due to the measurement uncertainties which is consistent with the framework for the determination of measurement uncertainties. These approaches and findings can be utilized for the assessment of structures for life cycle extension and the design of monitoring Systems. T2 - ICASP 11 - 11th International conference on applications of statistics and probability in civil engineering CY - Zurich, Switzerland DA - 01.08.2011 PY - 2011 SN - 978-0-415-66986-3 SP - 1762 EP - 1769 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London AN - OPUS4-24292 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Bicker, S. A1 - Rücker, Werner ED - De Roeck, G. ED - Degrande, G. ED - Lombaert, G. ED - Müller, G. T1 - Results from monitoring and assessment of offshore wind turbines N2 - To ensure a high operational reliability of offshore wind turbines (OWEC) with economically acceptable repair and maintenance efforts, comprehensive diagnosis and supervision concepts are required. Automatic monitoring Systems will be an essential part of such concepts. Because of the fact, that during Operation there will be static and dynamic interaction between the components ‘structure’, ‘machinery’ and ‘blades’ it is necessary to develop the monitoring techniques in an overall concept. These monitoring Systems are supposed to be applied for the design and testing as well as for the Operation and maintenance phases. The knowledge of the dynamic behavior of wind turbines is important both for the design and for a safe Operation. The available monitoring data from a period of three years, allow first conclusions on the long-term Operation of such Systems in terms of quality requirements to the instrumentation to the structure and the rotor blades T2 - EURODYN 2011 - 8th International conference on structural dynamics CY - Leuven, Belgium DA - 04.07.2011 KW - Integrated monitoring system KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Structural assessment KW - Limit values KW - Measurement hardware KW - Data management KW - Embedded FBG sensors KW - Data analysis KW - Damage detection KW - Rotor blades PY - 2011 SN - 978-90-760-1931-4 IS - MS25 SP - 3450 EP - 3456 AN - OPUS4-24293 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Schneider, Ronald T1 - The Influence of brittle Daniels system characteristics on the value of load monitoring information N2 - This paper addresses the influence of deteriorating brittle Daniels system characteristics on the value of structural health monitoring (SHM). The value of SHM is quantified as the difference between the life cycle benefits with and without SHM. A value of SHM analysis is performed within the framework of the Bayesian pre-posterior decision theory and requires (1) structural performance modelling and prediction, (2) structural integrity management models, (3) the (pre-posterior) modelling of SHM and (4) the coupling of SHM and the structural performance models. The pre-posterior decision theoretical framework facilitates that the value of SHM can be quantified before the SHM system is quantified and before data are acquired. The results of this study support decisions to select structural systems for which the SHM strategy load monitoring is optimal. T2 - 8th European Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring (EWSHM 2016) CY - Bilbao, Spain DA - 05.07.2016 KW - Value of information KW - Structural performance KW - Deterioration KW - Daniels systems PY - 2016 UR - http://www.ndt.net/?id=20186 SN - 1435-4934 VL - 21 IS - 8 SP - 1 EP - 9 PB - NDT.net CY - Kirchwald AN - OPUS4-38217 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Straub, Daniel T1 - Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation N2 - An efficient approach to reliability analysis of deteriorating structural systems is presented, which considers stochastic dependence among element deterioration. Information on a deteriorating structure obtained through inspection or monitoring is included in the reliability assessment through Bayesian updating of the system deterioration model. The updated system reliability is then obtained through coupling the updated deterioration model with a probabilistic structural model. The underlying high-dimensional structural reliability problems are solved using subset simulation, which is an efficient and robust sampling-based algorithm suitable for such analyses. The approach is demonstrated in two case studies considering a steel frame structure and a Daniels system subjected to high-cycle fatigue. KW - Structural reliability KW - Deterioration KW - Bayesian analysis KW - Inspection KW - Monitoring KW - Subset simulation PY - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2016.09.002 SN - 0167-4730 SN - 1879-3355 VL - 64 SP - 20 EP - 36 PB - Elsevier AN - OPUS4-38218 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hu, Wei-Hua A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Vibration-based structural health monitoring of a wind turbine system. Part I: Resonance phenomenon N2 - This paper is focused on a resonance phenomenon of a wind turbine system in 5 MW class, on the basis of dynamic signals acquired continuously from the tubular tower under normal operational conditions during two years. Firstly, technique specifications of the wind turbine system are introduced and a finite element model is developed to characterize the structural dynamic properties. The following part describes the continuous dynamic monitoring system integrated with an automated operational modal analysis procedure using the poly-reference Least Squares Complex Frequency domain (p-LSCF) method. Subsequently, variations and mutual relationships of environmental/operational factors such as vibration amplitude, temperature, wind speed, rotation speed of blades, pitch angle and nacelle direction are also presented. Finally, significant resonance is observed due to the fundamental frequency of the tower matching with the harmonic frequency induced by the rotation of three blades. As the rotation speed of rotor approaches to 8 rpm, the vibration amplitude of the tower increases significantly and the corresponding damping value decreases. With the further rising wind velocity, the rotation speed of blades stops increasing and the input energy just contribute to accumulate the vibration amplitude of tower. Such observation indicates the Sommerfeld effect that aggravates the resonance phenomenon. A vibration control device is necessary to minimize the excessive structural responses. A companion paper will further discuss the environmental/operational effects on dynamic properties of the wind turbine system under the operational conditions. KW - Vibration KW - Structural health monitoring KW - Wind turbine KW - Automated operational modal analysis KW - Resonance KW - Sommerfeld effect PY - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2014.12.034 SN - 0141-0296 VL - 89 SP - 260 EP - 272 PB - Elsevier Ltd. CY - Oxford AN - OPUS4-32878 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hu, Wei-Hua A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Vibration-based structural health monitoring of a wind turbine system. Part II: Environmental/operational effects on dynamic properties N2 - The second part of these companion papers mainly researches environmental/operational influences on structural dynamic properties under normal operational conditions during two years, in order to extract a statistical based damage-sensitive indicator for health monitoring of a wind turbine system. The correlation analyses between experimental identified frequencies, damping values as well as mode shapes and environmental/operational factors such as rotation speed of blades, wind speed, pitch angle, temperature and nacelle direction are presented. It is observed that the frequency estimates are influenced by the nacelle position, the activation of rotor, the rotation speed of blades and the wind speed as well as the temperature. Regarding to the damping estimates, they are mainly associated with variation of the aerodynamic damping due to the increasing wind speed. Besides, the resonance phenomenon is also observed in higher modes. The harmonic frequencies due to blades passing by tower are found and the corresponding damping value decreases. Moreover, the mode shapes in some modes are strongly affected by the position of the nacelle. Subsequently, two types of simulated damage including the reduction of stiffness in both the rotor blade and the tubular tower are successfully detected by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based methods to these temperature-sensitive frequency estimates. Comparison of change of the extracted health features indicates that they are more sensitive with the tower damage. KW - Vibration KW - Structural health monitoring KW - Wind turbine KW - Environmental/operational effects KW - Modal properties KW - Principal Component Analysis KW - Novelty analysis KW - Damage detection KW - Sommerfeld effect KW - Automated operational modal analysis KW - Resonance PY - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2014.12.035 SN - 0141-0296 VL - 89 SP - 273 EP - 290 PB - Elsevier Ltd. CY - Oxford AN - OPUS4-32879 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Berchtold, Florian A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Rogge, Andreas A1 - Arnold, L. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian ED - Lönnermark, Anders ED - Ingason, Haukur T1 - Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios N2 - Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and the microscopic evacuation model FDS+Evac. However, the high computational effort of complex models often limits the number of scenarios in practice. To balance this drawback, the scenarios are often simplified. Accordingly, there is a challenge to consider complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement on regions with high metamodel uncertainties; and the combination of two experimental designs for FDS and FDS+Evac. To scrutinise the metamodel, we analysed the effects of three sequential refinement steps on the metamodel itself and on the results of risk analysis. We observed convergence in both after the second step (ten scenarios in FDS, 192 scenarios in FDS+Evac). In comparison to ISTSS 2016, we then ran 20 scenarios in FDS and 800 scenarios in FDS+Evac. Thus, we reduced the number of scenarios remarkably with the improved metamodel. In conclusion, we can now efficiently integrate complex scenarios in risk analysis. We further emphasise that the metamodel is broadly applicable on various experimental or modelling issues in fire safety engineering. T2 - International Symposium on Tunnel Safety and Security CY - Boras, Sweden DA - 14.03.2018 KW - Risk KW - Metamodel KW - CFD KW - Evacuation KW - Uncertainty PY - 2018 SN - 978-91-88695-48-2 VL - 8 SP - 349 EP - 360 AN - OPUS4-44535 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - On the Value of Monitoring Information for the Structural Integrity and Risk Management N2 - This article introduces an approach and framework for the quantification of the value of structural health monitoring (SHM) in the context of the structural risk and integrity management for systems. The quantification of the value of SHM builds upon the Bayesian decision and utility theory, which facilitates the assessment of the value of information associated with SHM. The principal approach for the quantification of the value of SHM is formulated by modeling the fundamental decision of performing SHM or not in conjunction with their expected utilities. The expected utilities are calculated accounting for the probabilistic performance of a system in conjunction with the associated structural integrity and risk management actions throughout the life cycle, the associated benefits, structural risks, and costs and when performing SHM, the SHM information, their probabilistic outcomes, and costs. The calculation of the expected utilities necessitates a comprehensive and rigorous modeling, which is introduced close to the original formulations and for which analysis characteristics and simplifications are described and derived. The framework provides the basis for the optimization of the structural risk and integrity management based on utility gains including or excluding SHM and inspection information. Studies of fatigue deteriorating structural Systems and their characteristics (1) provide decision Support for the performance of SHM, (2) explicate the influence of the structural component and system characteristics on the value of SHM, and (3) demonstrate how an integral optimization of SHM and inspection strategies for an efficient structural risk and integrity management can be performed. KW - Monitoring KW - Structural Integrity and Risk Management KW - SHM PY - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12332 VL - 33 IS - 1 SP - 79 EP - 94 PB - John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CY - Hoboken, NJ, USA AN - OPUS4-44537 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Döhler, M. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Determination of structural and damage detection system influencing parameters on the value of information N2 - A method to determine the influencing parameters of a structural and damage detection system is proposed based on the value of Information analysis. The value of information analysis utilizes the Bayesian pre-posterior decision theory to quantify the value of damage detection system for the structural integrity management during service life. First, the influencing parameters of the structural system, such as deterioration type and rate are introduced for the performance of the prior probabilistic system model. Then the influencing parameters on the damage detection system performance, including number of sensors, sensor locations, measurement noise, and the Type-I error are investigated. The preposterior probabilistic model is computed utilizing the Bayes’ theorem to update the prior system model with the damage indication information. Finally, the value of damage detection system is quantified as the difference between the maximum utility obtained in pre-posterior and prior analysis based on the decision tree analysis, comprising structural probabilistic models, consequences, as well as benefit and costs analysis associated with and without monitoring. With the developed approach, a case study on a statically determinate Pratt truss bridge girder is carried out to validate the method. The analysis shows that the deterioration rate is the most sensitive parameter on the effect of relative value of information over the whole service life. Furthermore, it shows that more sensors do not necessarily lead to a higher relative value of information; only specific sensor locations near the highest utilized components lead to a high relative value of information; measurement noise and the Type-I error should be controlled and be as small as possible. An optimal sensor employment with highest relative value of information is found. Moreover, it is found that the proposed method can be a powerful tool to develop optimal service life maintenance strategies—before implementation—for similar bridges and to optimize the damage detection system settings and sensor configuration for minimum expected Costs and risks. KW - Damage detection systems KW - Value of information KW - Deteriorating structures KW - Probability of damage indication KW - Decision theory PY - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-508083 SN - 1475-9217 SN - 1741-3168 VL - 21 IS - 1 SP - 19 EP - 36 PB - Sage Publications CY - Thousand Oaks, Calif. AN - OPUS4-50808 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Bayane, I. A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Brühwiler, E. T1 - Quantification of the conditional value of SHM data for the fatigue safety evaluation of a road viaduct N2 - Fatigue safety verification of existing bridges that uses ‘‘re-calculation’’ based on codes, usually results in insufficient fatigue safety, triggering invasive interventions. Instead of “re-calculation”, Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) should be used for the assessment of the existing bridges. Monitoring systems provide data that can reduce uncertainties associated with the fatigue loading process and the structural resistance. The objective of this paper is to quantify the value of the SHM system implemented in a 60-years-old road viaduct to investigate its fatigue safety, through modeling of the fundamental decisions of performing monitoring in conjunction with its expected utility. The quantification of the conditional value of information is based on the decision tree analysis that considers the structural reliability, various decision scenarios as well as the cost-benefit assessments. This leads to a quantitative decision basis for the owner about how much time and money can be saved while the viaduct fulfills its function reliably and respects the safety requirements. The originality of this paper stands in the application of the value of information theory to an existing viaduct considering the fatigue failure of the system based on the monitoring data and the cost-benefit of monitoring method. T2 - 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering CY - Seoul, South Korea DA - 26.05.2019 KW - Fatigue safety KW - Value of information PY - 2019 SP - 275 EP - 288 CY - Seoul, South Korea AN - OPUS4-50809 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Stewart, M. G. T1 - On the cost-efficiency, significance and effectiveness of terrorism risk reduction strategies for buildings N2 - We analyse the performance of risk reduction strategies for Terrorist attacks with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) for large governmental building structures in terms of cost-efficiency, significance and effectiveness Accounting for life safety in conjunction with societal preferences and capabilities. The approach builds upon an extended Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis and the principles of the marginal lifesaving costs based on the Life Quality Index (LQI). The decision scenario is formulated for a decision maker responsible for the safety of governmental or large commercial buildings and consequently the direct risks, the indirect risks due to fatalities and economical importance of the building beside the expected cost for the individual risk reduction strategies are modelled, aggregated and optimised. The considered risk reduction strategies encompass an explicit consideration and distinction of information and actions such as (i) threat surveillance may trigger the temporary evacuation of the building, (ii) the implementation of protection provisions provided by codes and guidelines, (iii) a detailed progressive collapse assessment and specific protection measures and (iv) the combination of protection and surveillance. All considered strategies are found to contribute to risk reduction and can be costefficient, especially for higher threat probabilities. The risk reduction strategies comply with societal macroeconomic and demographical characteristics and societal preferences according to the LQI. The progressive collapse assessment with targeted protection measures is found to be the most cost-efficient, significant and effective counter-terrorism strategy. This finding points to the necessity for a comprehensive utilisation of scientific methods and sophisticated engineering for progressive collapse assessment to determine targeted protection measures. KW - Significance and effectiveness KW - Risk mitigation strategies KW - Terrorist attacks KW - Value of information KW - Bayesian probability KW - Reliability KW - Risk and decision analysis KW - Decision optimality PY - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2020.101957 VL - 85 SP - 10195 PB - Elsevier Ltd. AN - OPUS4-50794 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Anh Mai, Q. A1 - Morato, P. G. A1 - Dalsgaard Sorensen, J. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Information value-based optimization of structural and environmental monitoring for offshore wind turbines support structures N2 - The use of load and structural performance measurement information is vital for efficient structural integrity management and for the cost of energy production with Offshore Wind Turbines (OWTs). OWTs are dynamically sensitive structures subject to an interaction with a control unit exposed to repeated cyclic wind and wave loads causing deterioration and fatigue. This study focuses on the quantification of the value of structural and environmental information on the integrity management of OWT structures, with the focus on fatigue of welded joints. By utilizing decision analysis, structural reliability methods, measurement data, as well as the cost-benefit models, a Value of Information (VoI) analysis can be performed to quantify the most beneficial measurement strategy. The VoI assessment is demonstrated for the integrity management of a butt welded joint of a monopile support structure for a 3 MW OWT with a hub height of approximately 71m. The conditional value of three-year measured oceanographic information and one-year strain monitoring information is quantified posteriori in conjunction with an inspection and repair planning. This paper provides insights on how much benefits can be achieved through structural and environmental information, with practical relevance on reliability-based maintenance of OWT structures. KW - Structural health monitoring KW - Offshore wind turbine KW - Monopile support structure KW - Value of information KW - Weld fatigue KW - Decision tree KW - Dynamic Bayesian Network PY - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-514098 VL - 10 IS - 159 SP - 1036 EP - 1046 PB - Elsevier Ltd. AN - OPUS4-51409 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Hu, Wei-Hua A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Rücker, Werner ED - Cunha, A. ED - Caetano, E. ED - Ribeiro, P. ED - Müller, G. T1 - Resonance phenomenon in a wind turbine system under operational conditions N2 - A prototype of wind turbines in 5 megawatt dass was built and tested at the first German offshore wind energy test fteld in the North Sea. In order to investigate dynamic behaviors under a complex state of loads, a continuous dynamic monitoring System was implemented by Federal Institute for Material Research and Testing (BAM). It recorded structural responses and environmental/operational variables from November 2007 to October 2009. This paper presents significant resonance phenomenon due to the interaction in the tower-nacelle System under operational conditions. Modal parameters are automatically estimated by the poly reference Least Square Complex Frequency domain (p-LSCF) method. Campbell plot demonstrates that a three-blade passage frequency and its multiples f3n match with the natural frequencies of the wind turbine System in several modal Orders. The damping estimates decrease and the Vibration amplitude increase significantly. A control System is necessary to minimize the excessive vibrations. T2 - EURODYN 2014 - 9th International conference on structural dynamics CY - Porto, Portugal DA - 30.06.2014 KW - Wind turbine KW - Tower-nacelle system KW - Resonance KW - Continuous dynamic monitoring KW - Automated operational modal analysis PY - 2014 SN - 978-972-752-165-4 SN - 2311-9020 SP - 3619 EP - 3626 AN - OPUS4-32970 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Alcover, I. F. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Quantification of the posterior utilities of SHM campaigns on an orthotropic steel bridge deck N2 - This paper contains a quantification and decision theoretical optimization of the posterior utilities for several options for monitoring campaigns on the particular case of fatigue life predictions of an orthotropic steel deck. The monitoring campaigns are defined by varying monitoring durations and phases. The decision analysis is performed with real data from the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of the Great Belt Bridge (Denmark) which, among others, consist of measured strains, pavement temperatures and traffic intensities. The fatigue loading prediction model is based on regression models linking daily averaged pavement temperatures, daily aggregated heavy-traffic Counts and derived S-N fatigue damages, all of them derived from the outcomes of different monitoring campaigns. A probabilistic methodology is utilized to calculate the fatigue reliability profiles of selected instrumented welded joints. The posterior utilities of SHM campaigns are then quantified by considering the structural fatigue reliability, various monitoring campaigns and the corresponding cost-benefit models. The decisions of identifying the optimal monitoring campaign and of extending the service life or not in conjunction with monitoring results are modelled. The optimal monitoring campaign is identified - retrospectively - by maximizing the expected benefits and minimize risks in dependency of the monitoring duration and the monitoring associated costs. The results, despite relying on a number of simplistic assumptions, pave the way towards the use of pre-posterior decision support to optimise the design of monitoring campaigns for similar bridges, with an overall goal to proof the cost efficiency of SHM approaches to civil infrastructure management. T2 - The 12th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring CY - Stanford University, CA, USA DA - 10.09.2019 KW - SHM KW - Posterior utilities KW - Orthotropic steel bridge deck PY - 2019 SP - 265 EP - 274 AN - OPUS4-49174 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Alcover, I. F. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Quantification of the posterior utilities of SHM campaigns on an orthotropic steel bridge deck N2 - This paper contains a quantification and decision theoretical optimization of the posterior utilities for several options for monitoring campaigns on the particular case of fatigue life predictions of an orthotropic steel deck. The monitoring campaigns are defined by varying monitoring durations and phases. The decision analysis is performed with real data from the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of the Great Belt Bridge (Denmark) which, among others, consist of measured strains, pavement temperatures and traffic intensities. The fatigue loading prediction model is based on regression models linking daily averaged pavement temperatures, daily aggregated heavy-traffic Counts and derived S-N fatigue damages, all of them derived from the outcomes of different monitoring campaigns. A probabilistic methodology is utilized to calculate the fatigue reliability profiles of selected instrumented welded joints. The posterior utilities of SHM campaigns are then quantified by considering the structural fatigue reliability, various monitoring campaigns and the corresponding cost-benefit models. The decisions of identifying the optimal monitoring campaign and of extending the service life or not in conjunction with monitoring results are modelled. The optimal monitoring campaign is identified - retrospectively - by maximizing the expected benefits and minimize risks in dependency of the monitoring duration and the monitoring associated costs. The results, despite relying on a number of simplistic assumptions, pave the way towards the use of pre-posterior decision support to optimise the design of monitoring campaigns for similar bridges, with an overall goal to proof the cost efficiency of SHM approaches to civil infrastructure management. T2 - IWSHM 2019, The 12th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring, Stanford, California, USA CY - Stanford, California, USA DA - 10.09.2019 KW - Quantification KW - SHM information KW - Steel bridge deck PY - 2019 SP - 1 EP - 9 AN - OPUS4-48481 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Brüske, H. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Value of pre‐construction proof loading information for structural design N2 - We introduce a new concept that enables a decision analyst to explore and quantify the benefits of decision alternatives that exceed the scope of a pre‐posterior decision or value of information analysis. This new concept, namely, the expected value of sample information and action analysis, facilitates to examine decision alternatives that become only possible with additional knowledge. The concept is introduced by taking basis in proof load testing as a source of (pre‐)posterior knowledge. Pre‐posterior decision analysis is necessary in order to optimize the structural design through proof loading information. The application of the common value of information Analysis and the new value of information and action analysis are demonstrated in a case study. KW - Value of information and action KW - Pre‐construction proof loading KW - Pre‐posterior decision analysis KW - Structural design optimization PY - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2398 SN - 1095-4244 SP - 1 EP - 17 PB - John Wiley & Sons AN - OPUS4-48804 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rastayesh, S. A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Sørensen, J. D. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Risk Assessment and Value of Action Analysis for Icing Conditions of Wind Turbines Close to Highways N2 - The paper presents research results from the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network INFRASTAR in the field of reliability approaches for decision-making for wind turbines and bridges. This paper addresses the application of Bayesian decision analysis for installation of heating systems in wind turbine blades in cases where an ice detection system is already installed in order to allow wind turbines to be placed close to highways. Generally, application of ice detection and heating systems for wind turbines is very relevant in cases where the wind turbines are planned to be placed close to urban areas and highways, where risks need to be considered due to icing events, which may lead to consequences including human fatality, functional disruptions, and/or economic losses. The risk of people being killed in a car passing on highways near a wind turbine due to blades parts or ice pieces being thrown away in cases of overicing is considered in this paper. The probability of being killed per kilometer and per year is considered for three cases: blade parts thrown away as a result of a partial or total failure of a blade, ice thrown away in two cases, i.e., of stopped wind turbines and of wind turbines in operation. Risks due to blade parts being thrown away cannot be avoided, since low strengths of material, maintenance or manufacturing errors, mechanical or electrical failures may result in failure of a blade or blade part. The blade (parts) thrown away from wind turbines in operation imply possible consequences/fatalities for people near the wind turbines, including in areas close to highways. Similar consequences are relevant for ice being thrown away from wind turbine blades during icing situations. In this paper, we examine the question as to whether it is valuable to put a heating System on the blades in addition to ice detection systems. This is especially interesting in countries with limited space for placing wind turbines; in addition, it is considered if higher power production can be obtained due to less downtime if a heating system is installed. KW - Risk assessment KW - Value of action analysis KW - Icing conditions KW - Wind turbine KW - Blade PY - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-487805 VL - 12 IS - 14 SP - 2653-1 EP - 2653-15 PB - MDPI AN - OPUS4-48780 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Döhler, M. T1 - Damage Detection and Deteriorating Structural Systems N2 - This paper addresses the quantification of the value of damage detection system and algorithm information on the basis of Value of Information (VoI) analysis to enhance the benefit of damage detection information by providing the basis for its optimization before it is performed and implemented. The approach of the quantification the value of damage detection information builds upon the Bayesian decision theory facilitating the utilization of damage detection performance models, which describe the information and its precision on structural system level, facilitating actions to ensure the structural integrity and facilitating to describe the structural system performance and its functionality throughout the service life. The structural system performance is described with its functionality, its deterioration and its behavior under extreme loading. The structural system reliability given the damage detection information is determined utilizing Bayesian updating. The damage detection performance is described with the probability of indication for different component and system damage states taking into account type 1 and type 2 errors. The value of damage detection information is then calculated as the difference between the expected benefits and risks utilizing the damage detection information or not. With an application example of the developed approach based on a deteriorating Pratt truss system, the value of damage detection information is determined,demonstrating the potential of risk reduction and expected cost reduction. T2 - International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring CY - Stanford, CA, USA DA - 12.09.2017 KW - Reliability updating KW - Structural reliability and risks KW - Damage detection KW - Value of information PY - 2017 SN - 978-1-60595-330-4 SP - 1276 EP - 1284 AN - OPUS4-43624 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Döhler, M. A1 - Long, Lijia T1 - On Damage Detection System Information for Structural Systems N2 - Damage detection systems (DDS) provide information of the structural system integrity in contrast to e.g. local information by inspections or non-destructive testing techniques. In this paper, an approach is developed and demonstrated to utilize DDS information to update the structural system reliability and to integrate this information in structural system risk and utility analyses. For this aim, a novel performance modelling of DDS building upon their system characteristics and non-destructive testing reliability is introduced. The DDS performance modelling accounts for a measurement system in combination with a damage detection algorithm attached to a structural system in the reference and damage states and is modelled with the probability of indication accounting for type I and II errors. In this way, the basis for DDS performance comparison and assessment is provided accounting for the dependencies between the damage states in a structure. For updating of the structural system reliability, an approach is developed based on Bayesian updating facilitating the use of DDS information on structural system level and thus for a structural system risk analysis. The structural system risk analysis encompasses the static, dynamic, deterioration, reliability and consequence models, which provide the basis for the system model for calculating the direct risks due to component failure and the indirect risks due to system failure. Two case studies with the developed approach demonstrate a high Value of DDS Information due to risk and expected cost reduction. KW - Damage detection KW - Value of Information KW - Structural systems KW - Damage detection uncertainty PY - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/10168664.2018.1459222 VL - 28 IS - 3 SP - 255 EP - 268 PB - Taylor & Francis AN - OPUS4-46964 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rogge, Andreas ED - Bucher, Christian ED - Ellingwood, Bruce R. ED - Frangopol, Dan M. T1 - Simulating the service life performance of an inspected group of jacket-type structures N2 - A novel method for risk-based optimization of inspection and repair strategies for deteriorating structural systems has recently been proposed. The method defines heuristics at the system level to reduce the number of possible strategies. For each defined strategy, it computes the updated system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories, and evaluates the associated costs and risk. The expected total service life costs and risk for a strategy are finally determined using Monte Carlo simulation. The optimal strategy minimizes the expected total service life costs and risk. We intend to adopt this approach to optimize inspection, monitoring and repair activities for offshore wind park support structures. As a first step, we simulate – in analogy to an offshore wind park – the service life performance of an inspected group of jacket-type frames. The performance is quantified in terms of the group’s system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories. The underlying system model accounts for the structural redundancy of the frames and the interdependence among their failure events due to similar loading conditions. The model also captures stochastic dependence among the deterioration states of the frames. As part of the simulation process the a-priori unknown outcome of any planned inspection is generated conditional on the outcome of all previous inspections. T2 - 12th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 06.08.2017 KW - Reliability KW - Fatigue KW - Inspection KW - Service life performance KW - Inspection planning PY - 2017 SN - 978-3-903024-28-1 SP - 2738 EP - 2747 PB - TU-MV Media Verlag GmbH CY - Vienna, Austria AN - OPUS4-41344 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Döhler, M. T1 - The effects of SHM system parameters on the value of damage detection information N2 - This paper addresses how the value of damage detection Information depends on key Parameters of the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) system including number of sensors and sensor locations. The Damage Detection System (DDS) provides the information by comparing ambient vibration measurements of a (healthy) reference state with measurements of the current structural system. The performance of DDS method depends on the physical measurement properties such as the number of sensors, sensor positions, measuring length and sensor type, measurement noise, ambient excitation and sampling frequency, as well as on the data processing algorithm including the chosen type I error for the indication threshold. The quantification of the value of Information (VoI) is an expected utility based Bayesian decision analysis method for quantifying the difference of the expected economic benefits with and without information. The (pre-)posterior probability is computed utilizing the Bayesian updating theorem for all possible indications. If changing any key parameters of DDS, the updated probability of system failure given damage detection information will be varied due to different indication of probability of damage, which will result in changes of value of damage detection information. The DDS system is applied in a statically determinate Pratt truss bridge girder. Through the analysis of the value of information with different SHM system characteristics, the settings of DDS can be optimized for minimum expected costs and risks before implementation. T2 - 9th European Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring CY - Manchester, UK DA - 10.07.2018 KW - SHM KW - Damage detection system KW - Value of information PY - 2018 SP - 375 EP - 384 AN - OPUS4-46190 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Kapoor, M. A1 - Sørensen, J. D. A1 - Ghosh, S. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Decision theoretic approach for identification of optimal proof load with sparse resistance information N2 - Proof load testing may be performed to confirm the reliability of the bridge for an existing classification or to prove the reliability for a higher classification. In this paper, a probabilistic decision analysis approach is applied to the scenario for the evaluation of target proof load in the situation where information on the bridge resistance model is lacking. In this case, the resistance model is established by proof loading and taking very basic prior knowledge into account. The decision scenario is modelled in the context of the proof load test planner who shall choose the required load level for assessment of a bridge. The choice of the load level depends on the risks due to the testing and the expected benefit gain from the test. Information acquired about the loading response from monitoring during the proof load testing is modelled by taking basis in the model uncertainty formulation. The optimal proof load level for classification of a single lane, simply supported bridge of 8m span subjected to live load from very heavy (gross weight > 80 tons) transport vehicles was calculated. The optimal proof load level was identified as leading to a positive expected benefit gain to the decision maker while also satisfying target reliability criteria for remaining service life. The analysis was performed for the evaluation of bridge performance with respect to five classifications of very heavy transport vehicles with different vehicle weights and configurations. T2 - 10th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management (IABMAS) CY - Sapporo, Japan DA - 11.04.2021 KW - Proof load testing KW - Probabilistic decision analysis KW - Bridge resistance model PY - 2021 SN - 978-0-429-27911-9 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429279119-104 SP - 789 EP - 797 PB - CRC Press CY - Boca Raton, Florida AN - OPUS4-57879 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kinne, Marko A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Fatigue Reliability Based on Predicted Posterior Stress Ranges Determined from Strain Measurements of Wind Turbine Support Structures N2 - In the present paper, an approach for updating the continuous stress range distribution of a welded connection of a wind turbine support structure with predicted information from strain measurements is presented. Environmental conditions, such as wind or, in offshore fields, waves and currents, in combination with rotor excitations generate cyclic stresses affecting the reliability of welded joints of the support structure over the service life. Using strain measurements, these conditions can be monitored, and the resulting stress ranges, under consideration of measurement, mechanical and material uncertainties, can be reconstructed. These stress ranges can be used as an input for updating the prior probability density function (PDF) of the stress ranges predicted by the overall dynamics and a detailed design analysis. Applying Bayesian probability theory and decision theoretical implications, the predicted posterior probability density of the stress ranges is calculated based on the design information and uncertainties. This approach is exemplified, and it is shown how the predicted stress ranges and the design stress ranges are distributed. The prior and the predicted posterior stress ranges are used for a reliability calculation for potentially entering a pre-posterior decision analysis KW - Strain measurements of wind turbine support structures KW - Bayesian updating of stress ranges KW - Posterior fatigue reliability PY - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-572663 VL - 16 IS - 5 SP - 1 EP - 26 PB - MDPI AN - OPUS4-57266 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Kinne, Marko A1 - Farhan, Muhammad A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Influence of the structural integrity management on the levelized cost of energy of offshore wind: a parametric sensitivity analysis N2 - The levelized cost of energy (LCoE) is an important measure to quantify the macro-economic efficiency of an offshore wind farm and to enable a quantitative comparison with other types of energy production. The costs of the structural integrity management - which is required to ensure an adequate lifetime reliability of the turbine support structures - are part of the operational expenditures of an offshore wind farm. An optimization of the structural integrity management may reduce the operational expenditures and consequently the LCoE. However, the effect of the structural integrity management on the LCoE is hardly known. To investigate this effect, this paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the LCoE of a generic offshore wind farm. The probabilistic models of the parameters influencing the LCoE are based on a literature study including an explicit model for the structural integrity management. The analysis reveals that LCoE may potentially be reduced if an optimization of the structural integrity management enables a service life extension. T2 - International Probabilistic Workshop 2022 CY - Stellenbosch, South Africa DA - 08.09.2022 KW - Structural integrity management KW - Levelized cost of energy KW - Sensitivity analysis PY - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-572724 VL - 36 SP - 90 EP - 98 PB - Acta Polytechnica CTU Proceedings AN - OPUS4-57272 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kapoor, M. A1 - Overgaard Christensen, Ch. A1 - Wittrup Schmidt, J. A1 - Dalsgaard Sørensen, J. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Decision analytic approach for the reclassification of concrete bridges by using elastic limit information from proof loading N2 - Reclassification of bridges, i.e., a change in load rating, using reliability-based methods and a direct update with proof load information has been presented by many authors. However, bridge reclassification has hardly been studied from a decision analytic perspective, i.e., with quantification of the risks and benefits of different classification choices, and the expected benefit gain from proof loading. We derive, explain and exemplify a decision analytic approach for bridge reclassification along with models for (1) elastic and ultimate capacity and their adaptation with proof load information, (2) proof load information with classification outcomes accounting for target reliabilities and, (3) utilities including socio-economic benefits from reclassification. The approach and models are exemplified with a case study based on reclassification of bridges with a low existing classification. Decision rules, for practical use by a highway authority to find the optimal classification, are identified and documented based on: (1) the measurement of the capacity at elastic limit by proof loading, (2) the bridge reclassification benefits, and, (3) the required annual reliability level. From a Value of Information analysis, it is concluded that the proof load information is highly valuable for reclassification in cases of high socio-economic benefits and high reliability requirements. KW - Proof loading KW - Structural reliability KW - Value of information KW - Decision analysis PY - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-596845 SN - 0951-8320/ VL - 232 SP - 1 EP - 16 PB - Elsevier Ltd. AN - OPUS4-59684 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -