TY - CONF A1 - Hu, Wei-Hua A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Rücker, Werner ED - Cunha, A. ED - Caetano, E. ED - Ribeiro, P. ED - Müller, G. T1 - Resonance phenomenon in a wind turbine system under operational conditions N2 - A prototype of wind turbines in 5 megawatt dass was built and tested at the first German offshore wind energy test fteld in the North Sea. In order to investigate dynamic behaviors under a complex state of loads, a continuous dynamic monitoring System was implemented by Federal Institute for Material Research and Testing (BAM). It recorded structural responses and environmental/operational variables from November 2007 to October 2009. This paper presents significant resonance phenomenon due to the interaction in the tower-nacelle System under operational conditions. Modal parameters are automatically estimated by the poly reference Least Square Complex Frequency domain (p-LSCF) method. Campbell plot demonstrates that a three-blade passage frequency and its multiples f3n match with the natural frequencies of the wind turbine System in several modal Orders. The damping estimates decrease and the Vibration amplitude increase significantly. A control System is necessary to minimize the excessive vibrations. T2 - EURODYN 2014 - 9th International conference on structural dynamics CY - Porto, Portugal DA - 30.06.2014 KW - Wind turbine KW - Tower-nacelle system KW - Resonance KW - Continuous dynamic monitoring KW - Automated operational modal analysis PY - 2014 SN - 978-972-752-165-4 SN - 2311-9020 SP - 3619 EP - 3626 AN - OPUS4-32970 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Brüske, H. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Value of pre‐construction proof loading information for structural design N2 - We introduce a new concept that enables a decision analyst to explore and quantify the benefits of decision alternatives that exceed the scope of a pre‐posterior decision or value of information analysis. This new concept, namely, the expected value of sample information and action analysis, facilitates to examine decision alternatives that become only possible with additional knowledge. The concept is introduced by taking basis in proof load testing as a source of (pre‐)posterior knowledge. Pre‐posterior decision analysis is necessary in order to optimize the structural design through proof loading information. The application of the common value of information Analysis and the new value of information and action analysis are demonstrated in a case study. KW - Value of information and action KW - Pre‐construction proof loading KW - Pre‐posterior decision analysis KW - Structural design optimization PY - 2019 DO - https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2398 SN - 1095-4244 SP - 1 EP - 17 PB - John Wiley & Sons AN - OPUS4-48804 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rastayesh, S. A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Sørensen, J. D. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Risk Assessment and Value of Action Analysis for Icing Conditions of Wind Turbines Close to Highways N2 - The paper presents research results from the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network INFRASTAR in the field of reliability approaches for decision-making for wind turbines and bridges. This paper addresses the application of Bayesian decision analysis for installation of heating systems in wind turbine blades in cases where an ice detection system is already installed in order to allow wind turbines to be placed close to highways. Generally, application of ice detection and heating systems for wind turbines is very relevant in cases where the wind turbines are planned to be placed close to urban areas and highways, where risks need to be considered due to icing events, which may lead to consequences including human fatality, functional disruptions, and/or economic losses. The risk of people being killed in a car passing on highways near a wind turbine due to blades parts or ice pieces being thrown away in cases of overicing is considered in this paper. The probability of being killed per kilometer and per year is considered for three cases: blade parts thrown away as a result of a partial or total failure of a blade, ice thrown away in two cases, i.e., of stopped wind turbines and of wind turbines in operation. Risks due to blade parts being thrown away cannot be avoided, since low strengths of material, maintenance or manufacturing errors, mechanical or electrical failures may result in failure of a blade or blade part. The blade (parts) thrown away from wind turbines in operation imply possible consequences/fatalities for people near the wind turbines, including in areas close to highways. Similar consequences are relevant for ice being thrown away from wind turbine blades during icing situations. In this paper, we examine the question as to whether it is valuable to put a heating System on the blades in addition to ice detection systems. This is especially interesting in countries with limited space for placing wind turbines; in addition, it is considered if higher power production can be obtained due to less downtime if a heating system is installed. KW - Risk assessment KW - Value of action analysis KW - Icing conditions KW - Wind turbine KW - Blade PY - 2019 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-487805 DO - https://doi.org/10.3390/en12142653 VL - 12 IS - 14 SP - 2653-1 EP - 2653-15 PB - MDPI AN - OPUS4-48780 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Döhler, M. A1 - Long, Lijia T1 - On Damage Detection System Information for Structural Systems N2 - Damage detection systems (DDS) provide information of the structural system integrity in contrast to e.g. local information by inspections or non-destructive testing techniques. In this paper, an approach is developed and demonstrated to utilize DDS information to update the structural system reliability and to integrate this information in structural system risk and utility analyses. For this aim, a novel performance modelling of DDS building upon their system characteristics and non-destructive testing reliability is introduced. The DDS performance modelling accounts for a measurement system in combination with a damage detection algorithm attached to a structural system in the reference and damage states and is modelled with the probability of indication accounting for type I and II errors. In this way, the basis for DDS performance comparison and assessment is provided accounting for the dependencies between the damage states in a structure. For updating of the structural system reliability, an approach is developed based on Bayesian updating facilitating the use of DDS information on structural system level and thus for a structural system risk analysis. The structural system risk analysis encompasses the static, dynamic, deterioration, reliability and consequence models, which provide the basis for the system model for calculating the direct risks due to component failure and the indirect risks due to system failure. Two case studies with the developed approach demonstrate a high Value of DDS Information due to risk and expected cost reduction. KW - Damage detection KW - Value of Information KW - Structural systems KW - Damage detection uncertainty PY - 2018 DO - https://doi.org/10.1080/10168664.2018.1459222 VL - 28 IS - 3 SP - 255 EP - 268 PB - Taylor & Francis AN - OPUS4-46964 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kapoor, M. A1 - Overgaard Christensen, Ch. A1 - Wittrup Schmidt, J. A1 - Dalsgaard Sørensen, J. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Decision analytic approach for the reclassification of concrete bridges by using elastic limit information from proof loading N2 - Reclassification of bridges, i.e., a change in load rating, using reliability-based methods and a direct update with proof load information has been presented by many authors. However, bridge reclassification has hardly been studied from a decision analytic perspective, i.e., with quantification of the risks and benefits of different classification choices, and the expected benefit gain from proof loading. We derive, explain and exemplify a decision analytic approach for bridge reclassification along with models for (1) elastic and ultimate capacity and their adaptation with proof load information, (2) proof load information with classification outcomes accounting for target reliabilities and, (3) utilities including socio-economic benefits from reclassification. The approach and models are exemplified with a case study based on reclassification of bridges with a low existing classification. Decision rules, for practical use by a highway authority to find the optimal classification, are identified and documented based on: (1) the measurement of the capacity at elastic limit by proof loading, (2) the bridge reclassification benefits, and, (3) the required annual reliability level. From a Value of Information analysis, it is concluded that the proof load information is highly valuable for reclassification in cases of high socio-economic benefits and high reliability requirements. KW - Proof loading KW - Structural reliability KW - Value of information KW - Decision analysis PY - 2023 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-596845 DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.109049 SN - 0951-8320/ VL - 232 SP - 1 EP - 16 PB - Elsevier Ltd. AN - OPUS4-59684 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Kapoor, M. A1 - Sørensen, J. D. A1 - Ghosh, S. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Decision theoretic approach for identification of optimal proof load with sparse resistance information N2 - Proof load testing may be performed to confirm the reliability of the bridge for an existing classification or to prove the reliability for a higher classification. In this paper, a probabilistic decision analysis approach is applied to the scenario for the evaluation of target proof load in the situation where information on the bridge resistance model is lacking. In this case, the resistance model is established by proof loading and taking very basic prior knowledge into account. The decision scenario is modelled in the context of the proof load test planner who shall choose the required load level for assessment of a bridge. The choice of the load level depends on the risks due to the testing and the expected benefit gain from the test. Information acquired about the loading response from monitoring during the proof load testing is modelled by taking basis in the model uncertainty formulation. The optimal proof load level for classification of a single lane, simply supported bridge of 8m span subjected to live load from very heavy (gross weight > 80 tons) transport vehicles was calculated. The optimal proof load level was identified as leading to a positive expected benefit gain to the decision maker while also satisfying target reliability criteria for remaining service life. The analysis was performed for the evaluation of bridge performance with respect to five classifications of very heavy transport vehicles with different vehicle weights and configurations. T2 - 10th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management (IABMAS) CY - Sapporo, Japan DA - 11.04.2021 KW - Proof load testing KW - Probabilistic decision analysis KW - Bridge resistance model PY - 2021 SN - 978-0-429-27911-9 DO - https://doi.org/10.1201/9780429279119-104 SP - 789 EP - 797 PB - CRC Press CY - Boca Raton, Florida AN - OPUS4-57879 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kinne, Marko A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Fatigue Reliability Based on Predicted Posterior Stress Ranges Determined from Strain Measurements of Wind Turbine Support Structures N2 - In the present paper, an approach for updating the continuous stress range distribution of a welded connection of a wind turbine support structure with predicted information from strain measurements is presented. Environmental conditions, such as wind or, in offshore fields, waves and currents, in combination with rotor excitations generate cyclic stresses affecting the reliability of welded joints of the support structure over the service life. Using strain measurements, these conditions can be monitored, and the resulting stress ranges, under consideration of measurement, mechanical and material uncertainties, can be reconstructed. These stress ranges can be used as an input for updating the prior probability density function (PDF) of the stress ranges predicted by the overall dynamics and a detailed design analysis. Applying Bayesian probability theory and decision theoretical implications, the predicted posterior probability density of the stress ranges is calculated based on the design information and uncertainties. This approach is exemplified, and it is shown how the predicted stress ranges and the design stress ranges are distributed. The prior and the predicted posterior stress ranges are used for a reliability calculation for potentially entering a pre-posterior decision analysis KW - Strain measurements of wind turbine support structures KW - Bayesian updating of stress ranges KW - Posterior fatigue reliability PY - 2023 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-572663 DO - https://doi.org/10.3390/en16052225 VL - 16 IS - 5 SP - 1 EP - 26 PB - MDPI AN - OPUS4-57266 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Straub, D. ED - Strauss, A. ED - Frangopol, D.M. ED - Bergmeister, K. T1 - Reliability-based inspection planning with application to orthotropic bridge deck structures subjected to fatigue N2 - A reliability-based approach to inspection planning for welded steel structures subjected to high cycle fatigue is presented in the current document. Inspections are an effective means to control the Progress of fatigue deterioration and the presented approach allows to determine the minimum required inspection effort so that the considered structure complies with the given risk acceptance criteria in terms of target reliability throughout its service life. T2 - 3rd International symposium on life-cycle civil engineering CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 03.10.2012 PY - 2012 SN - 978-0-415-62126-7 SP - 311 EP - 318 PB - CRC Press AN - OPUS4-27068 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Straub, Daniel T1 - Reliability analysis and updating of deteriorating systems with subset simulation N2 - An efficient approach to reliability analysis of deteriorating structural systems is presented, which considers stochastic dependence among element deterioration. Information on a deteriorating structure obtained through inspection or monitoring is included in the reliability assessment through Bayesian updating of the system deterioration model. The updated system reliability is then obtained through coupling the updated deterioration model with a probabilistic structural model. The underlying high-dimensional structural reliability problems are solved using subset simulation, which is an efficient and robust sampling-based algorithm suitable for such analyses. The approach is demonstrated in two case studies considering a steel frame structure and a Daniels system subjected to high-cycle fatigue. KW - Structural reliability KW - Deterioration KW - Bayesian analysis KW - Inspection KW - Monitoring KW - Subset simulation PY - 2017 DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2016.09.002 SN - 0167-4730 SN - 1879-3355 VL - 64 SP - 20 EP - 36 PB - Elsevier AN - OPUS4-38218 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Farhan, Muhammad A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Predictive information and maintenance optimization based on decision theory: a case study considering a welded joint in an offshore wind turbine support structure N2 - Predictive information and maintenance optimization for deteriorating structures is concerned with scheduling (a) the collection of information by inspection and monitoring and (b) maintenance actions such as repair, replacement, and retrofitting based on updated predictions of the future condition of the structural system. In this article, we consider the problem of jointly identifying—at the beginning of the service life—the optimal inspection time and repair strategy for a generic welded joint in a generic offshore wind turbine structure subject to fatigue. The optimization is performed based on different types of decision analyses including value of information analyses to quantify the expected service life cost encompassing inspection, repair, and fatigue damage for all relevant combinations of inspection time, repair method, and repair time. Based on the analysis of the expected service life cost, the optimal inspection time, repair method, and repair time are identified. Possible repair methods for a welded joint in an offshore environment include welding and grinding, for which detailed models are formulated and utilized to update the joint’s fatigue performance. The decision analyses reveal that an inspection should be scheduled approximately at mid-service life of the welded joint. A repair should be performed in the same year after an indication and measurement of a fatigue crack given an optimal inspection scheduling. This article concludes with a discussion on the results obtained from the decision and value of information analyses. KW - Integrity management KW - Value of information KW - Decision theory KW - Structural reliability KW - Fracture mechanics KW - Fatigue KW - Predictive maintenance KW - Wind turbine support structure PY - 2021 DO - https://doi.org/10.1177/1475921720981833 SN - 1475-9217 SN - 1741-3168 PB - Sage Publications CY - London AN - OPUS4-52771 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -