TY - JOUR A1 - Farhan, Muhammad A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Predictive information and maintenance optimization based on decision theory: a case study considering a welded joint in an offshore wind turbine support structure N2 - Predictive information and maintenance optimization for deteriorating structures is concerned with scheduling (a) the collection of information by inspection and monitoring and (b) maintenance actions such as repair, replacement, and retrofitting based on updated predictions of the future condition of the structural system. In this article, we consider the problem of jointly identifying—at the beginning of the service life—the optimal inspection time and repair strategy for a generic welded joint in a generic offshore wind turbine structure subject to fatigue. The optimization is performed based on different types of decision analyses including value of information analyses to quantify the expected service life cost encompassing inspection, repair, and fatigue damage for all relevant combinations of inspection time, repair method, and repair time. Based on the analysis of the expected service life cost, the optimal inspection time, repair method, and repair time are identified. Possible repair methods for a welded joint in an offshore environment include welding and grinding, for which detailed models are formulated and utilized to update the joint’s fatigue performance. The decision analyses reveal that an inspection should be scheduled approximately at mid-service life of the welded joint. A repair should be performed in the same year after an indication and measurement of a fatigue crack given an optimal inspection scheduling. This article concludes with a discussion on the results obtained from the decision and value of information analyses. KW - Integrity management KW - Value of information KW - Decision theory KW - Structural reliability KW - Fracture mechanics KW - Fatigue KW - Predictive maintenance KW - Wind turbine support structure PY - 2021 DO - https://doi.org/10.1177/1475921720981833 SN - 1475-9217 SN - 1741-3168 PB - Sage Publications CY - London AN - OPUS4-52771 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Faber, M.H. A1 - Rücker, Werner ED - Faber, M.H. ED - Köhler, J. ED - Nishijima, K. T1 - On the utilization of monitoring data in an ultimate limit state reliability analysis N2 - This paper describes a structural reliability analysis utilizing monitoring data in the ultimate limit state with consideration of the uncertainties of the monitoring procedure. For this purpose the uncertainties of the monitoring data are modeled utilizing a new framework for the determination of measurement uncertainties. The approach is based on a process equation and Statistical models of observations for the derivation of a posterior measurement uncertainty by Bayesian updating. This facilitates the quantification of a measurement uncertainty using all available data of the measurement process. For the reliability analysis in the ultimate limit state, monitoring data can be utilized as a loading model Information and as proof loading, i.e. resistance model Information. Both approaches are discussed with generic examples and it is shown that the modeling of monitoring data in a reliability analysis can result in a reduction of uncertainties and as a consequence in the reduction of the probability of failure. Furthermore, the proof loading concept is developed further to account for the uncertain characteristic of proof loading due to the measurement uncertainties which is consistent with the framework for the determination of measurement uncertainties. These approaches and findings can be utilized for the assessment of structures for life cycle extension and the design of monitoring Systems. T2 - ICASP 11 - 11th International conference on applications of statistics and probability in civil engineering CY - Zurich, Switzerland DA - 01.08.2011 PY - 2011 SN - 978-0-415-66986-3 SP - 1762 EP - 1769 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London AN - OPUS4-24292 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Bicker, S. A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang T1 - Structural investigations and monitoring results on a prototype of offshore wind turbines of multibrid M5000 series N2 - The concept and technical details of the implementation of the developed integrated monitoring system within the IMO-WIND project are presented. The tasks of the components of the system and its requirements are described. Selected results from the continuous monitoring during operation of the plant M5000_2 regarding the task design verification and dynamic structural analysis are given. T2 - DEWEK 2010 - 10th German wind energy conference CY - Bremen, Germany DA - 2010-11-17 KW - Integrated monitoring system KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Design verification KW - Structural assessment KW - Limit values KW - Load transfer KW - Data management KW - Dynamic analysis KW - Rotor blades KW - Embedded sensors PY - 2011 IS - S03 SP - 1 EP - 5 PB - DEWI GmbH AN - OPUS4-23712 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Integrated monitoring of offshore wind turbines - requirements, concepts and experiences N2 - Wind turbines on offshore sites (OWECs) are subjected to combined loads from wind and waves. These dynamic loads, with a frequency content within the range of the natural frequencies of the structures, cause fatigue-effective stresses in the substructures of wind turbines. Therefore, the examination of natural frequencies is an important part within the design process of wind turbines. The quality of the numerical models for such calculations is of great importance, since the certification guidelines permit only small uncertainties in modal analysis results. The accuracy of the parameters of the numerical model can only be achieved through a comparison of simulation results with corresponding test results. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the dynamic behaviour of all components of the wind turbines simultaneously. This is true not only for the design verification, but also for monitoring the OWECs in operation. The potential of integrated systems for monitoring-based maintenance optimisation should thus be used. KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Integrated monitoring system KW - Structural assessment KW - Damage indicators KW - Dynamic loads KW - Data management PY - 2010 DO - https://doi.org/10.1080/15732470903068706 SN - 1573-2479 SN - 1744-8980 VL - 6 IS - 5 SP - 575 EP - 591 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London AN - OPUS4-21452 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Stewart, M. G. T1 - On the cost-efficiency, significance and effectiveness of terrorism risk reduction strategies for buildings N2 - We analyse the performance of risk reduction strategies for Terrorist attacks with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) for large governmental building structures in terms of cost-efficiency, significance and effectiveness Accounting for life safety in conjunction with societal preferences and capabilities. The approach builds upon an extended Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis and the principles of the marginal lifesaving costs based on the Life Quality Index (LQI). The decision scenario is formulated for a decision maker responsible for the safety of governmental or large commercial buildings and consequently the direct risks, the indirect risks due to fatalities and economical importance of the building beside the expected cost for the individual risk reduction strategies are modelled, aggregated and optimised. The considered risk reduction strategies encompass an explicit consideration and distinction of information and actions such as (i) threat surveillance may trigger the temporary evacuation of the building, (ii) the implementation of protection provisions provided by codes and guidelines, (iii) a detailed progressive collapse assessment and specific protection measures and (iv) the combination of protection and surveillance. All considered strategies are found to contribute to risk reduction and can be costefficient, especially for higher threat probabilities. The risk reduction strategies comply with societal macroeconomic and demographical characteristics and societal preferences according to the LQI. The progressive collapse assessment with targeted protection measures is found to be the most cost-efficient, significant and effective counter-terrorism strategy. This finding points to the necessity for a comprehensive utilisation of scientific methods and sophisticated engineering for progressive collapse assessment to determine targeted protection measures. KW - Significance and effectiveness KW - Risk mitigation strategies KW - Terrorist attacks KW - Value of information KW - Bayesian probability KW - Reliability KW - Risk and decision analysis KW - Decision optimality PY - 2020 DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2020.101957 VL - 85 SP - 10195 PB - Elsevier Ltd. AN - OPUS4-50794 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Integrated Monitoring Systems for Offshore Wind Turbines T2 - 6th International Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring CY - Stanford, USA DA - 2007-09-11 KW - Integrated Monitoring System KW - Damage Identification KW - Load Monitoring KW - Wind turbines PY - 2007 SP - 1 EP - 8 AN - OPUS4-16280 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Döhler, M. ED - del Grosso, A. E. ED - Basso, P. T1 - Structural reliability updating with stochastic subspace damage detection information N2 - Damage detection algorithms as a part of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) are widely applied in research and industry and have shown their capabilities to efficiently detect structural damages. These algorithms usually compare a model front a safe reference state of a structure to Vibration data from a possibly damaged state. For such a comparison, special properties of real Vibration data introduce uncertainties, such as low signal-to-noise ratios, non-stationary or nonwhite ambient excitation, non-linear behavior and many more. Recently, Statistical damage detection algorithms based on stochastic subspace Identification have been proposed that take into account the uncertainties in the data. Building upon the uncertainty modeling, the next step in the view of the authors is to utilize damage detection algorithm information in the context of the structural reliability theory. Therefore, this paper introduces an approach for the updating of the structural reliability with damage detection algorithm information. Two steps are described namely the determination of a probability of detection (PoD) distribution function for damage detection algorithms accounting for the relevant uncertainties and the concept of Bayesian updating of the structural reliability. The introduced approaches are applied in generic examples. In this way the potential of the utilization of damage detection system information for more reliable structural systems are demonstrated. T2 - EACS 2012 - Smart Structures - 5th European Conference on Structural Control CY - Genoa, Italy DA - 18.06.2012 KW - Stochastic subspace KW - Structural reliability KW - Bayesian updating KW - Probability of detection PY - 2012 SN - 978-88-95023-13-7 IS - Paper #008 SP - 1 EP - 12 PB - Erredi Grafiche Editoriali CY - Genoa AN - OPUS4-26181 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rabe, Frederik A1 - Löhnert, Andrea A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Numerical quantification of fire smoke toxicity in tunnels N2 - Vehicle fires in tunnels can have catastrophic consequences for the road users, the property and traffic inffastructure. To support an evacuation planning, this study simulates the fire smoke toxicity and the smoke layer of a vehicle fire in a full-size test tunnel. The three dimensional prediction of the fire smoke toxicity in the test tunnel is realized by implementing the Fractional Effective Dose and the Fractional Summation concept in a CFD environment. The developed model facilitates to calculate fire scenarios for various types of tunnels and to quantify the hazard e.g. during an evacuation scenario. T2 - ISAVFT 15 - 15th International symposium on aerodynamics, ventilation and fire in tunnels CY - Barcelona, Spain DA - 18.09.2013 KW - Toxicity KW - Fire KW - Smoke KW - Tunnel KW - FED KW - Fractional effective dose PY - 2013 SN - 978-1-85598-137-9 SP - 203 EP - 215 AN - OPUS4-29719 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Berchtold, Florian A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Rogge, Andreas T1 - Review of road tunnel risk assessment - common aspects? N2 - Safety measures like tunnel emergency Ventilation Systems cause high financial costs. Hence, safety measures have to be chosen with the focus on the expected reduction of the consequences like fatalities or damage on structures and in conjunction with the investments. Since 2004, the European directive EU 2004/54/EC proposes therefore the application of risk assessments. Because the EU directive provides only few legal requirements on risk assessments, the methodologies developed on this basis have large differences. After one decade of intensive research, the comparative study now highlights common aspects and differences of several methodologies. T2 - 6th International symposium on tunnel safety and security CY - Marseille, France DA - 12.03.2014 KW - Tunnel KW - System KW - Risk assessment KW - Fire KW - Safety KW - Comparative study PY - 2014 SP - 669 EP - 670 AN - OPUS4-31256 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Rücker, Werner A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Schmid, Wolfgang ED - Zingoni, A. T1 - SHM strategies, application and measurements on tripod offshore wind energy converters within the German offshore park Alpha Ventus N2 - Prototypes of wind turbines of the megawatt dass are to be built and tested until 2008 within a German offshore wind energy test field in the North Sea (ALPHA VENTUS). To ensure a high operational reliability of offshore wind turbines with economically acceptable repair and maintenance efforts, comprehensive diagnosis and supervision concepts are required. Automatic monitoring Systems will be an essential part of such concepts. Because of the fact, that during Operation there will be static and dynamic interaction between the components ‘structure’, ‘machinery’ and ‘blades’ it is necessary to develop the monitoring techniques in an overall concept. These monitoring Systems are supposed to be applied for the design and testing as well as for the Operation and maintenance phases. In the paper the developed approaches for the measurement of actions and the condition monitoring of all components of an offshore wind energy plant will be shown. T2 - Research and applications in structural engineering, mechanics and computation - 5th International conference on structural engineering, mechanics and computation CY - Cape Town, South Africa DA - 02.09.2013 PY - 2013 SN - 978-1-138-00061-2 SN - 978-1-315-85078-8 SP - 977 EP - 982 PB - CRC Press AN - OPUS4-29104 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -