TY - JOUR A1 - Farhan, Muhammad A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Predictive information and maintenance optimization based on decision theory: a case study considering a welded joint in an offshore wind turbine support structure N2 - Predictive information and maintenance optimization for deteriorating structures is concerned with scheduling (a) the collection of information by inspection and monitoring and (b) maintenance actions such as repair, replacement, and retrofitting based on updated predictions of the future condition of the structural system. In this article, we consider the problem of jointly identifying—at the beginning of the service life—the optimal inspection time and repair strategy for a generic welded joint in a generic offshore wind turbine structure subject to fatigue. The optimization is performed based on different types of decision analyses including value of information analyses to quantify the expected service life cost encompassing inspection, repair, and fatigue damage for all relevant combinations of inspection time, repair method, and repair time. Based on the analysis of the expected service life cost, the optimal inspection time, repair method, and repair time are identified. Possible repair methods for a welded joint in an offshore environment include welding and grinding, for which detailed models are formulated and utilized to update the joint’s fatigue performance. The decision analyses reveal that an inspection should be scheduled approximately at mid-service life of the welded joint. A repair should be performed in the same year after an indication and measurement of a fatigue crack given an optimal inspection scheduling. This article concludes with a discussion on the results obtained from the decision and value of information analyses. KW - Integrity management KW - Value of information KW - Decision theory KW - Structural reliability KW - Fracture mechanics KW - Fatigue KW - Predictive maintenance KW - Wind turbine support structure PY - 2021 DO - https://doi.org/10.1177/1475921720981833 SN - 1475-9217 SN - 1741-3168 PB - Sage Publications CY - London AN - OPUS4-52771 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Integrated monitoring of offshore wind turbines - requirements, concepts and experiences N2 - Wind turbines on offshore sites (OWECs) are subjected to combined loads from wind and waves. These dynamic loads, with a frequency content within the range of the natural frequencies of the structures, cause fatigue-effective stresses in the substructures of wind turbines. Therefore, the examination of natural frequencies is an important part within the design process of wind turbines. The quality of the numerical models for such calculations is of great importance, since the certification guidelines permit only small uncertainties in modal analysis results. The accuracy of the parameters of the numerical model can only be achieved through a comparison of simulation results with corresponding test results. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the dynamic behaviour of all components of the wind turbines simultaneously. This is true not only for the design verification, but also for monitoring the OWECs in operation. The potential of integrated systems for monitoring-based maintenance optimisation should thus be used. KW - Offshore wind turbines KW - Integrated monitoring system KW - Structural assessment KW - Damage indicators KW - Dynamic loads KW - Data management PY - 2010 DO - https://doi.org/10.1080/15732470903068706 SN - 1573-2479 SN - 1744-8980 VL - 6 IS - 5 SP - 575 EP - 591 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London AN - OPUS4-21452 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Stewart, M. G. T1 - On the cost-efficiency, significance and effectiveness of terrorism risk reduction strategies for buildings N2 - We analyse the performance of risk reduction strategies for Terrorist attacks with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) for large governmental building structures in terms of cost-efficiency, significance and effectiveness Accounting for life safety in conjunction with societal preferences and capabilities. The approach builds upon an extended Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis and the principles of the marginal lifesaving costs based on the Life Quality Index (LQI). The decision scenario is formulated for a decision maker responsible for the safety of governmental or large commercial buildings and consequently the direct risks, the indirect risks due to fatalities and economical importance of the building beside the expected cost for the individual risk reduction strategies are modelled, aggregated and optimised. The considered risk reduction strategies encompass an explicit consideration and distinction of information and actions such as (i) threat surveillance may trigger the temporary evacuation of the building, (ii) the implementation of protection provisions provided by codes and guidelines, (iii) a detailed progressive collapse assessment and specific protection measures and (iv) the combination of protection and surveillance. All considered strategies are found to contribute to risk reduction and can be costefficient, especially for higher threat probabilities. The risk reduction strategies comply with societal macroeconomic and demographical characteristics and societal preferences according to the LQI. The progressive collapse assessment with targeted protection measures is found to be the most cost-efficient, significant and effective counter-terrorism strategy. This finding points to the necessity for a comprehensive utilisation of scientific methods and sophisticated engineering for progressive collapse assessment to determine targeted protection measures. KW - Significance and effectiveness KW - Risk mitigation strategies KW - Terrorist attacks KW - Value of information KW - Bayesian probability KW - Reliability KW - Risk and decision analysis KW - Decision optimality PY - 2020 DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2020.101957 VL - 85 SP - 10195 PB - Elsevier Ltd. AN - OPUS4-50794 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hu, Wei-Hua A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Vibration-based structural health monitoring of a wind turbine system. Part II: Environmental/operational effects on dynamic properties N2 - The second part of these companion papers mainly researches environmental/operational influences on structural dynamic properties under normal operational conditions during two years, in order to extract a statistical based damage-sensitive indicator for health monitoring of a wind turbine system. The correlation analyses between experimental identified frequencies, damping values as well as mode shapes and environmental/operational factors such as rotation speed of blades, wind speed, pitch angle, temperature and nacelle direction are presented. It is observed that the frequency estimates are influenced by the nacelle position, the activation of rotor, the rotation speed of blades and the wind speed as well as the temperature. Regarding to the damping estimates, they are mainly associated with variation of the aerodynamic damping due to the increasing wind speed. Besides, the resonance phenomenon is also observed in higher modes. The harmonic frequencies due to blades passing by tower are found and the corresponding damping value decreases. Moreover, the mode shapes in some modes are strongly affected by the position of the nacelle. Subsequently, two types of simulated damage including the reduction of stiffness in both the rotor blade and the tubular tower are successfully detected by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based methods to these temperature-sensitive frequency estimates. Comparison of change of the extracted health features indicates that they are more sensitive with the tower damage. KW - Vibration KW - Structural health monitoring KW - Wind turbine KW - Environmental/operational effects KW - Modal properties KW - Principal Component Analysis KW - Novelty analysis KW - Damage detection KW - Sommerfeld effect KW - Automated operational modal analysis KW - Resonance PY - 2015 DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2014.12.035 SN - 0141-0296 VL - 89 SP - 273 EP - 290 PB - Elsevier Ltd. CY - Oxford AN - OPUS4-32879 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hu, Wei-Hua A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Rohrmann, Rolf A1 - Said, Samir A1 - Rücker, Werner T1 - Vibration-based structural health monitoring of a wind turbine system. Part I: Resonance phenomenon N2 - This paper is focused on a resonance phenomenon of a wind turbine system in 5 MW class, on the basis of dynamic signals acquired continuously from the tubular tower under normal operational conditions during two years. Firstly, technique specifications of the wind turbine system are introduced and a finite element model is developed to characterize the structural dynamic properties. The following part describes the continuous dynamic monitoring system integrated with an automated operational modal analysis procedure using the poly-reference Least Squares Complex Frequency domain (p-LSCF) method. Subsequently, variations and mutual relationships of environmental/operational factors such as vibration amplitude, temperature, wind speed, rotation speed of blades, pitch angle and nacelle direction are also presented. Finally, significant resonance is observed due to the fundamental frequency of the tower matching with the harmonic frequency induced by the rotation of three blades. As the rotation speed of rotor approaches to 8 rpm, the vibration amplitude of the tower increases significantly and the corresponding damping value decreases. With the further rising wind velocity, the rotation speed of blades stops increasing and the input energy just contribute to accumulate the vibration amplitude of tower. Such observation indicates the Sommerfeld effect that aggravates the resonance phenomenon. A vibration control device is necessary to minimize the excessive structural responses. A companion paper will further discuss the environmental/operational effects on dynamic properties of the wind turbine system under the operational conditions. KW - Vibration KW - Structural health monitoring KW - Wind turbine KW - Automated operational modal analysis KW - Resonance KW - Sommerfeld effect PY - 2015 DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2014.12.034 SN - 0141-0296 VL - 89 SP - 260 EP - 272 PB - Elsevier Ltd. CY - Oxford AN - OPUS4-32878 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - On the Value of Monitoring Information for the Structural Integrity and Risk Management N2 - This article introduces an approach and framework for the quantification of the value of structural health monitoring (SHM) in the context of the structural risk and integrity management for systems. The quantification of the value of SHM builds upon the Bayesian decision and utility theory, which facilitates the assessment of the value of information associated with SHM. The principal approach for the quantification of the value of SHM is formulated by modeling the fundamental decision of performing SHM or not in conjunction with their expected utilities. The expected utilities are calculated accounting for the probabilistic performance of a system in conjunction with the associated structural integrity and risk management actions throughout the life cycle, the associated benefits, structural risks, and costs and when performing SHM, the SHM information, their probabilistic outcomes, and costs. The calculation of the expected utilities necessitates a comprehensive and rigorous modeling, which is introduced close to the original formulations and for which analysis characteristics and simplifications are described and derived. The framework provides the basis for the optimization of the structural risk and integrity management based on utility gains including or excluding SHM and inspection information. Studies of fatigue deteriorating structural Systems and their characteristics (1) provide decision Support for the performance of SHM, (2) explicate the influence of the structural component and system characteristics on the value of SHM, and (3) demonstrate how an integral optimization of SHM and inspection strategies for an efficient structural risk and integrity management can be performed. KW - Monitoring KW - Structural Integrity and Risk Management KW - SHM PY - 2018 DO - https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12332 VL - 33 IS - 1 SP - 79 EP - 94 PB - John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CY - Hoboken, NJ, USA AN - OPUS4-44537 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zhang, W.-H. A1 - Qin, J. A1 - Lu, D.-G. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Havbro Faber, M. T1 - Vol-informed decision-making for SHM system arrangement N2 - Structural health monitoring systems have been widely implemented to provide real-time continuous data support and to ensure structural safety in the context of structural integrity management. However, the quantification of the potential benefits of structural health monitoring systems has not yet attracted widespread attention. At the same time, there is an urgent need to develop strategies, such as optimizing the monitoring period, monitoring variables, and other factors, to maximize the potential benefits of structural health monitoring systems. Considering the continuity of structural health monitoring information, a framework is developed in this article to support decision-making for structural Health monitoring systems arrangement in the context of structural integrity management, which integrates the concepts of value of information and risk-based inspection planning based on an approach which utilizes a conjugate prior probability distribution for updating of the probabilistic models of structural performances based on structural health Monitoring information. An example considering fatigue degradation of steel structures is investigated to illustrate the application of the proposed framework. The considered example shows that the choice of monitoring variables, the Monitoring period, and the monitoring quality may be consistently optimized by the application of the proposed framework and approach. Finally, discussions and conclusions are provided to clarify the potential benefits of the proposed Framework with a special view to practical applications of structural health monitoring systems. KW - Value of information KW - Structural health monitoring systems arrangement strategy KW - Structural integrity management KW - Rskbased inspection KW - Structural health monitoring information model PY - 2020 DO - https://doi.org/10.1177/1475921720962736 SN - 1475-9217 VL - 21 IS - 1 SP - 37 EP - 58 PB - SAGE Journals CY - USA AN - OPUS4-53064 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Brüske, H. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Value of pre‐construction proof loading information for structural design N2 - We introduce a new concept that enables a decision analyst to explore and quantify the benefits of decision alternatives that exceed the scope of a pre‐posterior decision or value of information analysis. This new concept, namely, the expected value of sample information and action analysis, facilitates to examine decision alternatives that become only possible with additional knowledge. The concept is introduced by taking basis in proof load testing as a source of (pre‐)posterior knowledge. Pre‐posterior decision analysis is necessary in order to optimize the structural design through proof loading information. The application of the common value of information Analysis and the new value of information and action analysis are demonstrated in a case study. KW - Value of information and action KW - Pre‐construction proof loading KW - Pre‐posterior decision analysis KW - Structural design optimization PY - 2019 DO - https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2398 SN - 1095-4244 SP - 1 EP - 17 PB - John Wiley & Sons AN - OPUS4-48804 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rastayesh, S. A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Sørensen, J. D. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian T1 - Risk Assessment and Value of Action Analysis for Icing Conditions of Wind Turbines Close to Highways N2 - The paper presents research results from the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network INFRASTAR in the field of reliability approaches for decision-making for wind turbines and bridges. This paper addresses the application of Bayesian decision analysis for installation of heating systems in wind turbine blades in cases where an ice detection system is already installed in order to allow wind turbines to be placed close to highways. Generally, application of ice detection and heating systems for wind turbines is very relevant in cases where the wind turbines are planned to be placed close to urban areas and highways, where risks need to be considered due to icing events, which may lead to consequences including human fatality, functional disruptions, and/or economic losses. The risk of people being killed in a car passing on highways near a wind turbine due to blades parts or ice pieces being thrown away in cases of overicing is considered in this paper. The probability of being killed per kilometer and per year is considered for three cases: blade parts thrown away as a result of a partial or total failure of a blade, ice thrown away in two cases, i.e., of stopped wind turbines and of wind turbines in operation. Risks due to blade parts being thrown away cannot be avoided, since low strengths of material, maintenance or manufacturing errors, mechanical or electrical failures may result in failure of a blade or blade part. The blade (parts) thrown away from wind turbines in operation imply possible consequences/fatalities for people near the wind turbines, including in areas close to highways. Similar consequences are relevant for ice being thrown away from wind turbine blades during icing situations. In this paper, we examine the question as to whether it is valuable to put a heating System on the blades in addition to ice detection systems. This is especially interesting in countries with limited space for placing wind turbines; in addition, it is considered if higher power production can be obtained due to less downtime if a heating system is installed. KW - Risk assessment KW - Value of action analysis KW - Icing conditions KW - Wind turbine KW - Blade PY - 2019 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-487805 DO - https://doi.org/10.3390/en12142653 VL - 12 IS - 14 SP - 2653-1 EP - 2653-15 PB - MDPI AN - OPUS4-48780 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Costa, Giancarlo A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Limongelli, Maria Pina A1 - Piscini, Andrea T1 - Value of information‐driven innovation in Gerber saddles monitoring N2 - AbstractInnovation plays a crucial role in shaping technological, economic, and social progress in modern societies. In the realm of bridge integrity management, the development and diffusion of technologies to acquire information can significantly enhance industries' safety and functionality capabilities. Among the most widely diffused bridge types in Europe and North America, Gerber bridges are particularly susceptible to deterioration over time. Gerber saddles are typically not instrumented and are checked only through visual inspections. This paper introduces the metric of the Value of Information for Innovation to estimate the benefit associated with introducing an established technology in a new market of application. Herein, the operational value of implementing microelectromechanical inclinometers in the integrity management of Gerber saddles is quantified for the specific case of a bridge in northern Italy. Microelectromechanical systems companies may use these results to optimally select the technology price, investigate diverse market strategies, and optimize sensor arrangement. KW - Gerber saddles KW - Innovation KW - MEMs KW - Sensor optimization KW - Value of Information PY - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-627853 DO - https://doi.org/10.1002/suco.202400951 SN - 1751-7648 VL - 674 SP - 230 EP - 240 PB - Wiley AN - OPUS4-62785 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -