TY - JOUR A1 - Andrés Arcones, Daniel A1 - Weise, M. A1 - Koutsourelakis, P-S. A1 - Unger, Jörg F. T1 - Bias Identification Approaches for Model Updating of Simulation-based Digital Twins of Bridges N2 - Simulation-based digital twins of bridges have the potential not only to serve as monitoring devices of the current state of the structure but also to generate new knowledge through physical predictions that allow for better-informed decision-making. For an accurate representation of the bridge, the underlying models must be tuned to reproduce the real system. Nevertheless, the necessary assumptions and simplifications in these models irremediably introduce discrepancies between measurements and model response. We will show that quantifying the extent of the uncertainties introduced through the models that lead to such discrepancies provides a better understanding of the real system, enhances the model updating process, and creates more robust and trustworthy digital twins. The inclusion of an explicit bias term will be applied to a representative demonstrator case based on the thermal response of the Nibelungenbrücke of Worms. The findings from this work are englobed in the initiative SPP 100+, whose main aim is the extension of the service life of structures, especially through the implementation of digital twins. T2 - EWSHM 2024 11th European Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring CY - Potsdam, Germany DA - 10.06.2024 KW - Digital Twins KW - Model Bias KW - SPP100+ KW - Bridge Monitoring PY - 2024 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-622522 DO - https://doi.org/10.58286/30524 SN - 2941-4989 IS - 12 SP - 1 EP - 10 PB - NDT.net GmbH & Co. KG CY - Mayen, Germany AN - OPUS4-62252 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Andrés Arcones, Daniel A1 - Weiser, M. A1 - Koutsourelakis, P-S. A1 - Unger, Jörg F. T1 - Quantifying the uncertainty of predictive simulations in digital twins through the identification of model bias N2 - This work presents a novel approach to quantifying uncertainty in digital twin simulations by addressing model bias through embedded parameter distributions. Traditional Bayesian methods often underestimate uncertainty due to assumptions of model correctness. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian framework combined with Polynomial Chaos Expansion to better capture and propagate uncertainty. The methodology is validated on an analytical example and a real-world case involving thermal deformation predictions of the Nibelungen Bridge, demonstrating improved predictive accuracy and reliability. T2 - fib Symposium 2025 CY - Antibes, France DA - 16.06.2025 KW - Digital Twins KW - Model Bias KW - Predictive simulations KW - Quantifying the uncertainty PY - 2025 SP - 2867 EP - 2873 PB - The fib, Fédération international du béton CY - Antibes, France AN - OPUS4-63629 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -