TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Using comprehensive probability of detection curves to support determination of inspection intervals of railway axles N2 - Deutsche Bahn periodically inspects hollow railway axles for fatigue cracks on the outer surface with mechanized ultrasonic inspection systems. According to the current standard for the inspection of railway axles, the capability of the inspection system to detect these cracks has to be demonstrated on the saw-cut type artificial defects. However, the geometry and the ultrasonic response of the real cracks that can occur on the outer surface of the axle are different from the saw-cut. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the position and the orientation of the cracks are also important factors that influence the crack detectability. It is proposed to evaluate the influence of all factors on the detection of the cracks using the multi-parameter reliability model. The model uses numerical simulation and experiments to comprehensively address the influence of several factors on the probability of detection. T2 - 18th International Wheelset Congress CY - Chengdu, China DA - 07.11.2016 KW - Probability of detection KW - Ultrasonic inspection KW - Cracks KW - Hollow railway axles PY - 2016 AN - OPUS4-38280 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Investigations to Introduce the Probability of Detection Method for Ultrasonic Inspection of Hollow Axles at Deutsche Bahn N2 - Reliability investigation of the mechanised ultrasonic inspection system used to inspect hollow railway axles. T2 - ESIS TC24 Workshop "Integrity of Railway Structures" CY - Leoben, Austria DA - 24.10.2016 KW - POD KW - Ultrasonic KW - Reliability KW - NDT PY - 2016 AN - OPUS4-38460 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Reliability analysis of the ultrasonic inspection system for the inspection of hollow railway axles N2 - Axles are safety critical train components that are subjected to significant cyclic loading during operation. If the crack is initiated in the axle, cyclic loading will lead to crack propagation. To maintain structural integrity, axles must be periodically inspected for fatigue cracks in the material. Deutsche Bahn uses mechanized ultrasonic inspection system to inspect hollow railway axles. The inspections are performed from the bore surface, using several conventional transducers with different incident angles, inspecting the axle along the entire length. As with the every safety critical system, the reliability of these inspections must be determined with regard to their flaw detection capabilities. Traditionally this is done according to the relevant standards for railway vehicles. To investigate the capability of the NDT system more thoroughly, we want to evaluate the capability of the inspection system to detect flaws by means of probability of detection (POD) curves. It will be shown that other parameters, beside the size of the crack, for example crack position in the axle, influence the detection of the crack. The influence of these parameters was evaluated using ultrasonic simulation. The evaluation served as an input for the manufacturing of the flaws in the real scale axle. Once these axles are inspected and the data evaluated, using data from both measurement and simulation, we will express the POD of the crack as function of influencing parameters using the multiparameter POD model. T2 - Proceedings of the 19th World Conference on Nondestructive Testing CY - Munich, Germany DA - 13.06.2016 KW - Detection KW - Simulation KW - Ultrasonic KW - Railway KW - Reliability KW - POD KW - Crack PY - 2016 AN - OPUS4-36702 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Reliability Analysis of the Phased-Array Ultrasonic System used for the Inspection of Friction Stir Welds of Copper Canisters N2 - The canister for the permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel used by SKB in Sweden consists of a cast iron insert surrounded by a five centimetre thick shell of copper. It is a safety critical component and in order to secure long-term structural integrity non-destructive methods are used to inspect 100% of the volume of each canister, before it is disposed of in the repository. One of the critical components that requires inspection is a sealing weld, joining the copper tube and the lid. The friction stir weld is inspected using an ultrasonic phased array system. The area of the weld is inspected with several inspection channels with different angles and varying coverage. To make sure that no defects that might occur in the weld are overseen, the reliability of the inspection must be quantified. The reliability of NDT is usually quantified with the probability of detection curves. The influence of the parameters that might influence the POD of the flaws in the weld is investigated analysing the experimental results, as well as with a help of a numerical simulation of the inspection. T2 - Proceedings of the 19th World Conference on Nondestructive Testing CY - Munich, Germany DA - 13.06.2016 KW - Ultrasonic KW - Copper KW - NDT KW - FSW KW - JLH KW - Weld KW - POD KW - Reliability PY - 2016 AN - OPUS4-36703 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Achieving a more comprehensive POD using both simulation and measurements N2 - Today, it is an established fact that the capability of the non-destructive testing (NDT) to find flaws can be properly addressed only in terms of probability of detection (POD). The probabilistic, signal-response model, introduced in 1980s, was developed with experimental observation of eddy-current inspections of flat plate samples, containing surface breaking cracks. A linearity between the peak voltage measured by the testing system, and the crack depth was observed. The influence of the crack depth was therefore seen as the major influencing factor for the POD, whereas other factors merely caused the variability in the measurement. This model has proven itself valid for those inspection cases where there is only one main influencing factor on the POD (usually the flaw size) and other factors have a lesser influence. But with increasing requirements to quantify the capability of NDT systems in complex inspection situations, where several factors have a major influence on the POD, it has become clear that the applicability of this simple model has reached its limits. In disregard to its limitations, this model is regularly applied to those situations in which its fundamental assumptions are invalid, forcing evaluators and NDT researchers into attempts to fit the data to an unsuitable model, instead of fitting an appropriate model to the data. The multiparameter POD model, developed in the early 2010s, enables more factors that influence detection to be simultaneously analysed, making the POD a function of multiple factors. The model is based on the inspection’s physical model, to describe the influence of different factors on the response signal. Measurement variability is obtained from the experiment. Using this model assisted determination of the POD, the necessary number of flaws for evaluation is reduced and a more comprehensive understanding of the inspection is obtained. Several examples of the successful application of the multi-parameter POD model in different fields will be presented. T2 - 7th European-American Workshop on Reliability of NDE CY - Potsdam, Germany DA - 04.09.2017 KW - POD KW - Multi-parameter KW - Reliability KW - NDT PY - 2017 AN - OPUS4-42078 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - The importance of determining the POD of the NDT system when designing a safe component N2 - Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) is routinely used in aerospace, nuclear, railway and automotive industries. The most common use of NDT is to find flaws in components. In dynamically loaded components, flaws grow, and if they are not detected in time and no corrective measures are taken they can reach critical sizes. When a flaw reaches a critical size, it endangers the structural integrity of the component and will likely cause the component to fail. To detect flaws before they reach a critical size, components are inspected in fixed time intervals with non-destructive testing systems. In order to determine the amount of time between inspections, three variables are necessary: the critical size of the flaw, the flaw propagation speed and the size of the flaw that can be reliably detected by NDT. All three variables are, to a certain extent, stochastic. The critical size of the flaw and flaw propagation speed are questions of fracture mechanics. The size of the flaw that can be reliably detected by NDT is predicted by POD curves. The POD is determined for a given inspection scenario. The inspection scenario includes the NDT system, the component geometry and the type of the flaw. If one of these changes, the POD will also change and needs to be recalculated. As a result, the design of a dynamically loaded safety-relevant components is an iterative process in which a geometry is sought that provides an optimum between structural integrity and inspectability. A model that describes the iterative process for the design of the safe components with examples from praxis will be presented. T2 - 15th ASIA PACIFIC CONFERENCE FOR NON-DESTRUCTIVE TESTING (APCNDT) CY - Singapore DA - 13.11.2017 KW - Safety KW - Mechanical design KW - Fracture mechanics KW - Nondestructive testing KW - POD PY - 2017 AN - OPUS4-43134 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müller, Christina A1 - Heckel, Thomas A1 - Brömel, Philip A1 - Pavlovic, Mato A1 - Ronneteg, U. T1 - Attenuation dependent detectability at ultrasonic inspection of copper N2 - This report describes the progress in understanding and describing the detectability of the ultrasonic inspection technique developed by SKB for the inspection of copper tubes used for the final disposal of the Swedish spent nuclear fuel. In former research activities dedicated to the different parts of the canister, the probability of detection (POD) evaluation technique, as developed for thin aircraft components, was further developed for the application on complex hick-walled components. The result of this development was the introduction of a “multi-parameter” POD framework. In contrast to taking only the defect size into consideration (as for aircraft components) additional influencing factors, relevant for thick components, such as depth position, orientation and part geometry, were included. Furthermore, the variation of ultrasonic attenuation due to various material properties was included. PY - 2014 SP - ID 1411328, 1 EP - 54 AN - OPUS4-32522 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bertovic, Marija A1 - Calmon, P. A1 - Carter, L. A1 - Fischer, J. A1 - Forsyth, D. A1 - Holstein, R. A1 - McGrath, B. A1 - Müller, Christina A1 - Pavlovic, Mato A1 - Ronneteg, U. A1 - Rummel, W. A1 - Schubert, F. A1 - Selby, G. T1 - Summary of the "open space technology discussions" on reliability of NDE N2 - Since the beginnings of the European American Workshops (EAW) in 1997, the aim was to gather the experts in NDE reliability and discuss burning topics with the aim of identifying crucial problems and suggesting ways to move forward. This was usually achieved during the so-called break-out sessions, in which predetermined topics were discussed. During the 5th EAW, held in Berlin in 2013, this approach was replaced by an Open Space Technology (OST) approach. The benefit of this approach is seen in the freedom of topic choices, i. e., the topics are not predetermined but rather arise at that moment in that space and by the participants’ choice. The following topics arose: new reliability methods (Bayesian, MAPOD, …), structural health monitoring, definition of requirements of NDE by customer versus provider, what value of POD is good enough?, human factors, manual versus automated inspection, and basic concepts of reliability of NDE. The participants were encouraged to walk from one session to another and openly express their opinions. These were in the end summarized by a chosen group of moderators and presented in this paper. N2 - Seit den Anfängen der europäischen amerikanischen Workshops (EAW) im Jahr 1997 war es das Ziel, Experten auf dem Gebiet der ZfP-Zuverlässigkeit zusammenzuführen und aktuelle Themen zu diskutieren, um wichtige Probleme zu identifizieren und Wege für deren Lösung vorzuschlagen. Dies wurde in der Regel während der sogenannten „Break-out Sessions“ erreicht, in denen vorgegebene Themen diskutiert wurden. Während des 5. EAW, der in Berlin im Jahr 2013 stattfand, wurde dieser Ansatz durch einen Open Space Technology (OST) Ansatz ersetzt. Open Space ist eine Methode der Gruppenmoderation, die sehr gut geeignet ist, um neue Ideen zu entwickeln und selbstständiges Arbeiten zu fördern, d. h. die Themen werden nicht vorgegeben, sondern ergeben sich in diesem Moment in diesem Raum und durch die Wahl der Teilnehmer. Die folgenden Themen wurden herausgearbeitet: neue Zuverlässigkeitsmethoden (Bayes, MAPOD, ...…), Structural Health Monitoring, Definition von Anforderungen der Kunden gegenüber den ZfP-Anbietern, Welcher Wert der POD ist gut genug?, der Einfluss menschlicher Faktoren, manuelle gegenüber automatisierte Prüfung, sowie Grundkonzepte der ZfP-Zuverlässigkeit. Die Teilnehmer wurden aufgefordert, von einer Sitzung zur anderen zu wechseln und offen ihre Meinung zu äußern. Diese Meinungen wurden am Ende von einer ausgewählten Gruppe von Moderatoren zusammengefasst und werden in diesem Beitrag vorgestellt. KW - NDE reliability KW - POD KW - Bayesian approach KW - Structural health monitoring KW - Human factors KW - Open space technology PY - 2014 UR - http://www.hanser-elibrary.com/doi/pdf/10.3139/120.110604 DO - https://doi.org/10.3139/120.110604 SN - 0025-5300 VL - 56 IS - 7-8 SP - 602 EP - 606 PB - Hanser CY - München AN - OPUS4-31269 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Bertovic, Marija A1 - Calmon, P. A1 - Carter, L. A1 - Fisher, J. A1 - Forsyth, D. A1 - Holstein, R. A1 - McGrath, B. A1 - Müller, Christina A1 - Pavlovic, Mato A1 - Ronneteg, U. A1 - Rummel, W. A1 - Schubert, F. A1 - Selby, G. T1 - Summary of the open space technology discussions N2 - The highlight of 5th European American Workshop on Reliability of NDE (5th EAW) was the “Open Space Technology“(OST) discussion. The aim of the 5thEAW and, in particular, of the OST discussion - was to shed light on the reasons, which create a “deltcT between all the qualifications and reliability models and the real reliability in the field. In the previous 4 Workshops, the different topics of interest were discussed in the so-called break-out sessions, in which a specific goal for each working group was defined beforehand. In order not to move on “the old rails” in search for an answer, the break-out sessions were this year replaced by an open space approach. The reason for this was not to restrict the participants to a certain number of topics, but rather to allow the topics to arisefrom the interests of the participants and the needs of both the researchers and the NDT practitioners. This was achieved through setting up a wall of ideas. Each of the participantswas asked to write down as many questions or topics as they wanted, and pin them up on the wall throughout the duration of the entire Workshop. Finally, when the participants gathered for the discussion, those ideas were organized into 6 main topics: A. New reliability methods: Multiparameter POD, MAPOD, Bayesian B. Structural health monitoring C. Applications in industry D. Human factors E. Integrated Solutions and “delta" F. Basic concepts of reliability of NDE As in the spirit of the OST, in which the participants themselves determine the topics and decide how the discussion will flow, the participants from the topics C, D and E joined their forces and disused together. The groups separated and, under the moderation of several experts in different NDT reliability fields, the different issues have been discussed. At the end of the day the Groups were asked to present the content and the results of their work. Every group wrote a summary of the discussion. The purpose of this paper is to present the summaries of the held discussions and, therewith, share with the NDT community the main conclusions. T2 - 5th European-American workshop on reliability of NDE CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 07.10.2013 PY - 2013 SN - 978-3-940283-53-5 IS - DGZfP-BB 144 SP - 1 EP - 7 CY - Berlin AN - OPUS4-31271 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Determining probability of detection curves using experimental data and simulation N2 - Nondestructive testing (NDT) is routinely used in the nuclear, rail, aerospace and automotive industries to search for flaws in components. A signal from the flaw, recorded by the NDT device, will vary from measurement to measurement. The sources of this innate signal variation can be categorized into intrinsic, human and application factors. This variation, especially when searching for flaws that are at the limits of the NDT detection capabilities, can result in a failure to detect a flaw. If the inspected components are safety critical, the capability of NDT system to find flaws must be determined in order to avoid the catastrophic consequences of a missed flaw. The NDT system capability to detect flaws is expressed in terms of reliability. The probability of detection (POD) curve is a widespread tool to quantify the reliability of NDT. The POD is determined by series of experiments on specimens containing a range of flaws with known characteristics. The production of a sufficient number of these flaws is time consuming and expensive. In this paper, a multi-parameter POD model that uses both simulation and experimental measurements to calculate the POD curves will be presented. Simulation is used to assess the intrinsic capability of the NDT system and the variability in the system is estimated from experimental measurements. The POD calculated with the multi-parameter model is more comprehensive than the one calculated with the traditional model and the number of costly experiments needed is reduced. T2 - InnoTesting Conference 2017 CY - Wildau, Germany DA - 23.02.2017 KW - POD KW - Probability of detection KW - Reliability KW - Ultrasonics KW - Nuclear KW - Railway PY - 2017 AN - OPUS4-39280 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müller, Christina A1 - Pavlovic, Mato A1 - Takahashi, Kazunori A1 - Ewert, Uwe A1 - Rosenthal, Martina A1 - Brekow, Gerhard A1 - Böhm, R. A1 - Ronneteg, U. A1 - Pitkänen, J. T1 - POD Evaluation of NDE Techniques for Canister-Components for Risk Assessment of Nuclear Waste Encapsulation T2 - 6th International Conference on NDE in Relation to Structural Integrity for Nuclear and Pressurised Components CY - Budapest, Hungary DA - 2007-10-08 KW - Zerstörungsfreie Prüfung KW - Zuverlässigkeit KW - POD PY - 2008 SN - 978-92-79-08897-1 DO - https://doi.org/10.2790/1274 SN - 1018-5593 SP - 168 EP - 179 AN - OPUS4-18589 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Influence of Flaw Parameters on the POD of the UT NDT System T2 - 17th Annual Research Symposium CY - Anaheim, CA, USA DA - 2008-03-31 PY - 2008 AN - OPUS4-18534 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Investigation of the Influence Material Attenuation on the POD of the Flaws as a Part of Multi-Parameter Analysis T2 - 8th International Conference on NDE in Relation to Structural for Nuclear an Pressurised Components CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2010-09-29 PY - 2010 AN - OPUS4-22453 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Investigation of the Influence of the Material Attenuation on the POD of the Flaws as a Part of Multi-parameter Analysis T2 - ASNT 19th Annual Research Symposium and Spring Conference 2010 CY - Williamsburg, VA, USA DA - 2010-03-22 PY - 2010 AN - OPUS4-22454 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Multiparameter-POD Analyse T2 - 3. GMA-Expertenforum "Neue Entwicklungen in der Messdatenauswertung und Messunsicherheitsbestimmung" CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 2010-03-10 PY - 2010 AN - OPUS4-22427 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Multi-Parameter Influence on the Response of the Flaw to the Phased Array Ultrasonic NDT System. The Volume POD. T2 - 4th European-American Workshop on Reliability CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2009-06-24 PY - 2009 AN - OPUS4-20553 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - The Total Reliability of NDT Methods Used for Inspection of the EB Weld of the Copper Canister used for a Long-term Storage of Spent Nuclear Fuel T2 - 7th international Conference on NDE CY - Yokohama, Japan DA - 2009-05-12 PY - 2009 AN - OPUS4-20548 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - The Total Reliability of Different NDT Methods Used for an Inspection of the Electronic Beam Weld T2 - ASNT Research Symposium CY - St. Louis, MO, USA DA - 2009-03-16 PY - 2009 AN - OPUS4-20550 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Pavlovic, Mato T1 - Influence of Flaw Parameters on the POD of the UT NDT System T2 - ASNT 17th Annual Research Symposium & Conference CY - Anaheim, CA, USA DA - 2009-03-31 PY - 2009 AN - OPUS4-20551 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müller, Christina A1 - Bertovic, Marija A1 - Gaal, Mate A1 - Heidt, Heinrich A1 - Pavlovic, Mato A1 - Rosenthal, Martina A1 - Takahashi, K. A1 - Pitkänen, J. A1 - Ronneteg, U. T1 - Progress in evaluating the reliability of NDE systems - Paradigm shift N2 - The paper will give an overview of new methodology for evaluating the reliability of NDE systems accurately, reliably and efficiently in accordance with the specific requirements of industrial application. After a review of the substantive issues from the previous workshops, the go forward guidance from these interactions is considered. At the beginning of the reliability analysis, the actual safety demands have to be defined in order to fit the investigation to the level of risk when the component would fail. Next, all the essential influencing parameters need to be documented and transferred to an appropriate design of experiments (DOE) to determine the reliability in terms of a qualitative assessment for lower risk or in terms of a quantitative probability of detection (POD) or ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curves for higher safety demands. A new paradigm is offered to consider the POD or reliability of the system as a function of the configuration of input variables and use it for optimisation rather than for a final judgement. An advantage for the end user is also to sample all single PODs to an integral 'Volume POD' of a part. Among the influencing parameters, the human factor is the most important one. A systematic psychological approach shall help to find out where the bottlenecks are but most importantly to provide best possible working conditions for the human inspectors. T2 - 4th European-American workshop on reliability of NDE CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2009-06-24 KW - Zuverlässigkeit von ZfP-Systemen KW - Multiparameter POD PY - 2009 UR - http://www.ndt.net/article/reliability2009/Inhalt/we1a2.pdf SN - 978-3-940283-17-7 IS - DGZfP-BB 116 SP - 1 EP - 13 AN - OPUS4-20616 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - GEN A1 - Takahashi, K. A1 - Pavlovic, Mato A1 - Ronneteg, U. A1 - Pitkänen, J. A1 - Müller, Christina T1 - Probability of detection from C-scan data for reliability analysis of ultrasonic non-destructive testing T2 - 4th European-American workshop on reliability of NDE CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2009-06-24 KW - POD KW - UT KW - Reliability KW - C-scan PY - 2009 SN - 978-3-940283-17-7 IS - DGZfP-BB 116 SP - 1 EP - 7 AN - OPUS4-20617 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pavlovic, Mato A1 - Takahashi, K. A1 - Ronneteg, U. A1 - Pitkänen, J. A1 - Müller, Christina T1 - Multi-parameter influence on the response of the flaw to the phased array ultrasonic NDT system. The volume POD. T2 - 4th European-American workshop on reliability of NDE CY - Berlin, Germany DA - 2009-06-24 KW - POD KW - Reliability KW - Multi-parameter signal response PY - 2009 SN - 978-3-940283-17-7 IS - DGZfP-BB 116 SP - 1 EP - 6 AN - OPUS4-20618 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -