TY - CONF A1 - Berchtold, Florian A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Rogge, Andreas A1 - Arnold, L. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian ED - Lönnermark, Anders ED - Ingason, Haukur T1 - Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios N2 - Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and the microscopic evacuation model FDS+Evac. However, the high computational effort of complex models often limits the number of scenarios in practice. To balance this drawback, the scenarios are often simplified. Accordingly, there is a challenge to consider complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement on regions with high metamodel uncertainties; and the combination of two experimental designs for FDS and FDS+Evac. To scrutinise the metamodel, we analysed the effects of three sequential refinement steps on the metamodel itself and on the results of risk analysis. We observed convergence in both after the second step (ten scenarios in FDS, 192 scenarios in FDS+Evac). In comparison to ISTSS 2016, we then ran 20 scenarios in FDS and 800 scenarios in FDS+Evac. Thus, we reduced the number of scenarios remarkably with the improved metamodel. In conclusion, we can now efficiently integrate complex scenarios in risk analysis. We further emphasise that the metamodel is broadly applicable on various experimental or modelling issues in fire safety engineering. T2 - International Symposium on Tunnel Safety and Security CY - Boras, Sweden DA - 14.03.2018 KW - Risk KW - Metamodel KW - CFD KW - Evacuation KW - Uncertainty PY - 2018 SN - 978-91-88695-48-2 VL - 8 SP - 349 EP - 360 AN - OPUS4-44535 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Berchtold, Florian A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Thöns, S. A1 - Rogge, Andreas T1 - Risk analysis in road tunnels – most important risk indicators N2 - Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to Support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following order: first, fire part (maximum heat release rate); second, evacuation part (maximum preevacuation time); and, third, frequency part (specific frequency of fire). The plausibility of These results is discussed with view to experiences from experimental studies and past fire incidents. Conclusively, further research can focus on these most important risk indicators with the aim to optimise risk analysis. T2 - Seventh International Symposium on Tunnel Safety and Security CY - Boras, Sweden DA - 16.03.2016 KW - Fire KW - Risk KW - Road KW - Tunnel KW - Analysis PY - 2016 SN - 978-91-88349-11-8 SN - 0284-5172 SP - 637 EP - 648 CY - Boras, Sweden AN - OPUS4-37689 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Berchtold, Florian A1 - Thöns, Sebastian A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Rogge, Andreas T1 - Review of road tunnel risk assessment - common aspects? N2 - Safety measures like tunnel emergency Ventilation Systems cause high financial costs. Hence, safety measures have to be chosen with the focus on the expected reduction of the consequences like fatalities or damage on structures and in conjunction with the investments. Since 2004, the European directive EU 2004/54/EC proposes therefore the application of risk assessments. Because the EU directive provides only few legal requirements on risk assessments, the methodologies developed on this basis have large differences. After one decade of intensive research, the comparative study now highlights common aspects and differences of several methodologies. T2 - 6th International symposium on tunnel safety and security CY - Marseille, France DA - 12.03.2014 KW - Tunnel KW - System KW - Risk assessment KW - Fire KW - Safety KW - Comparative study PY - 2014 SP - 669 EP - 670 AN - OPUS4-31256 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Eberwein, Robert A1 - Rogge, Andreas A1 - Behrendt, F. A1 - Knaust, Christian T1 - Dispersion Modeling of LNG-Vapor on Land – A CFD-Model Evaluation Study N2 - Based on methane from renewable resources, LNG is an alternative fuel for heavy and long-distance traffic in land transport. Contrary to its positive properties, the fuel contains risks from an explosion and extremely low temperatures for personal and infrastructure safety. CFD-models are suitable for doing risk analyses for arbitrary scenarios. For examining how to model for risk research the dispersion of LNG-vapor, this paper contains a model variant study, with an evaluation by experiments. This paper describes the use of the CFD-code ANSYS Fluent for simulating experiments of the ‘LNG Safety Program Phase II‘. The content of the well-documented experiments was the research of the vaporization rate of LNG on land and the dispersion of LNG-vapor in the air. Based on the comparison to two experiments, overall 12 CFD-model variants with varying thermal and turbulence parameters were examined how they affect the transient LNG-vapor dispersion in air. The definition of turbulence-boundary-condition at the domain borders had the biggest impact on modeling, followed by the turbulence model. The most accurate model variant had been applied for observing the spreading behavior of LNG-vapor in the air after evaporation on land and analyzing the influence of the LNG-composition to the dispersion. The results show that the mixture of LNG-vapor and the air in the free field is cooler than the ambient air and spreads like a heavy gas on the ground. KW - LNG KW - CFD KW - Heavy gas KW - Model evaluation PY - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104116 VL - 65 SP - 104116 PB - Elsevier Ltd. AN - OPUS4-50697 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Rogge, Andreas ED - Lönnermark, A. ED - Ingason, H. T1 - Prediction of the temperature evolution in a tunnel construction in case of fire, by coupling the temperature-dependent heat transfer mechanisms inside the structural components and at their surface T2 - 5th International Symposium on tunnel safety and security CY - New York, USA DA - 2012-03-14 KW - Fire KW - High tmeperature fire loads KW - Component temperatures KW - Wall temperatures KW - Concrete KW - High temperature behavior KW - Thermal properties KW - Computational Fluid Dynamics KW - CFD PY - 2012 SN - 978-91-87017-26-1 SN - 0284-5172 VL - 2 SP - 753 EP - 756 AN - OPUS4-28067 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Rogge, Andreas T1 - CFD modeling of a tunnel fire by thermal coupling of fluid flow and structure T2 - International congress ' Fire computer modeling' CY - Cantabria, Spain DA - 2012-10-18 PY - 2012 SN - 978-84-86116-69-9 SP - 201 EP - 213 AN - OPUS4-27900 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -