TY - JOUR A1 - Veh, Georg A1 - Wang, Björn G. A1 - Zirzow, Anika A1 - Schmidt, Christoph A1 - Lützow, Natalie A1 - Steppat, Frederic A1 - Zhang, Guoqing A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Geertsema, Marten A1 - Clague, John J. A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Progressively smaller glacier lake outburst floods despite worldwide growth in lake area N2 - Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) may originate from larger lakes as these continue to grow with ongoing glacier retreat; however, this perception remains poorly supported in available GLOF databases. Here we mapped the areas of 1,686 glacier lakes, just before they drained, across 13 glaciated mountain regions outside polar regions and examined the trends in pre-GLOF lake areas between 1990 and 2023. We found that pre-GLOF lake areas barely changed, or even decreased, regionally through time, even as the total lake area, and thus hazard potential, grew overall. This counterintuitive finding reflects limits to growing GLOF magnitudes, such as the decoupling of lakes and parent glaciers, the development of wide, low-gradient outlets or human management. Across all regions, pre-GLOF lake areas depend on a few ice-dammed lakes, which have produced ten times more reported outbursts and ten times larger outbursts than moraineand bedrock-dammed lakes. The latter two dam types will continue to impound growing amounts of meltwater, thereby accounting for most of the overall GLOF hazard potential, while ice-dammed lakes will shrink with deglaciation. As these lake types will evolve differently in the twenty-first century, we call for customized simulations of GLOF outflows and impacts, given the growing exposure of critical infrastructure. KW - Climate change KW - Bayesian hierachical modelling KW - Outbursts flood PY - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-625709 DO - https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-025-00388-w SN - 2731-6084 SP - 1 EP - 25 AN - OPUS4-62570 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -