TY - JOUR A1 - Andrés Arcones, Daniel A1 - Weiser, M. A1 - Koutsourelakis, F. A1 - Unger, Jörg F. T1 - A Bayesian Framework for Simulation-based Digital Twins of Bridges JF - ce/papers Proceedings in civil engineering N2 - Simulation-based digital twins have emerged as a powerful tool for evaluating the mechanical response of bridges. As virtual representations of physical systems, digital twins can provide a wealth of information that complements traditional inspection and monitoring data. By incorporating virtual sensors and predictive maintenance strategies, they have the potential to improve our understanding of the behavior and performance of bridges over time. However, as bridges age and undergo regular loading and extreme events, their tructural characteristics change, often differing from the predictions of their initial design. Digital twins must be continuously adapted to reflect these changes. In this article, we present a Bayesian framework for updating simulation-based digital twins in the context of bridges. Our approach integrates information from measurements to account for inaccuracies in the simulation model and quantify uncertainties. Through its implementation and assessment, this work demonstrates the potential for digital twins to provide a reliable and up-to-date representation of bridge behavior, helping to inform decision-making for maintenance and management. T2 - Eurostruct 2023 CY - Vienna, Austria DA - 25.09.2023 KW - Digital Twins KW - Bayesian Inference KW - Bridge Monitoring KW - Uncertainty Quantification PY - 2023 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-586803 UR - https://eurostruct.org/eurostruct-2023/ DO - https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.2177 SN - 2509-7075 VL - 6 IS - 5 SP - 734 EP - 740 PB - Ernst & Sohn CY - Berlin AN - OPUS4-58680 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Andres Arcones, Daniel A1 - Weiser, M. A1 - Koutsourelakis, F.-S. A1 - Unger, Jörg F. T1 - Evaluation of Model Bias Identification Approaches Based on Bayesian Inference and Applications to Digital Twins N2 - In recent years, the use of simulation-based digital twins for monitoring and assessment of complex mechanical systems has greatly expanded. Their potential to increase the information obtained from limited data makes them an invaluable tool for a broad range of real-world applications. Nonetheless, there usually exists a discrepancy between the predicted response and the measurements of the system once built. One of the main contributors to this difference in addition to miscalibrated model parameters is the model error. Quantifying this socalled model bias (as well as proper values for the model parameters) is critical for the reliable performance of digital twins. Model bias identification is ultimately an inverse problem where information from measurements is used to update the original model. Bayesian formulations can tackle this task. Including the model bias as a parameter to be inferred enables the use of a Bayesian framework to obtain a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty between the measurements and the model. Simultaneously, this procedure can be combined with a classic parameter updating scheme to account for the trainable parameters in the original model. This study evaluates the effectiveness of different model bias identification approaches based on Bayesian inference methods. This includes more classical approaches such as direct parameter estimation using MCMC in a Bayesian setup, as well as more recent proposals such as stat-FEM or orthogonal Gaussian Processes. Their potential use in digital twins, generalization capabilities, and computational cost is extensively analyzed. T2 - 5th ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Uncertainty Quantificationin Computational Sciences and Engineering CY - Athen, Greece DA - 12.06.2023 KW - Model bias KW - Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification KW - Digital Twins KW - Gaussian Processes KW - Statistical Finite Element Method PY - 2023 UR - https://2023.uncecomp.org/ SP - 1 EP - 15 AN - OPUS4-58227 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -