TY - JOUR A1 - Andrés Arcones, Daniel A1 - Weise, M. A1 - Koutsourelakis, P-S. A1 - Unger, Jörg F. T1 - Bias Identification Approaches for Model Updating of Simulation-based Digital Twins of Bridges N2 - Simulation-based digital twins of bridges have the potential not only to serve as monitoring devices of the current state of the structure but also to generate new knowledge through physical predictions that allow for better-informed decision-making. For an accurate representation of the bridge, the underlying models must be tuned to reproduce the real system. Nevertheless, the necessary assumptions and simplifications in these models irremediably introduce discrepancies between measurements and model response. We will show that quantifying the extent of the uncertainties introduced through the models that lead to such discrepancies provides a better understanding of the real system, enhances the model updating process, and creates more robust and trustworthy digital twins. The inclusion of an explicit bias term will be applied to a representative demonstrator case based on the thermal response of the Nibelungenbrücke of Worms. The findings from this work are englobed in the initiative SPP 100+, whose main aim is the extension of the service life of structures, especially through the implementation of digital twins. T2 - EWSHM 2024 11th European Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring CY - Potsdam, Germany DA - 10.06.2024 KW - Digital Twins KW - Model Bias KW - SPP100+ KW - Bridge Monitoring PY - 2024 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-622522 DO - https://doi.org/10.58286/30524 SN - 2941-4989 IS - 12 SP - 1 EP - 10 PB - NDT.net GmbH & Co. KG CY - Mayen, Germany AN - OPUS4-62252 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Andrés Arcones, Daniel A1 - Weiser, M. A1 - Koutsourelakis, F.-S. A1 - Unger, Jörg F. T1 - Evaluation of Model Bias Identification Approaches Based on Bayesian Inference and Applications to Digital Twins N2 - In recent years, the use of simulation-based digital twins for monitoring and assessment of complex mechanical systems has greatly expanded. Their potential to increase the information obtained from limited data makes them an invaluable tool for a broad range of real-world applications. Nonetheless, there usually exists a discrepancy between the predicted response and the measurements of the system once built. One of the main contributors to this difference in addition to miscalibrated model parameters is the model error. Quantifying this socalled model bias (as well as proper values for the model parameters) is critical for the reliable performance of digital twins. Model bias identification is ultimately an inverse problem where information from measurements is used to update the original model. Bayesian formulations can tackle this task. Including the model bias as a parameter to be inferred enables the use of a Bayesian framework to obtain a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty between the measurements and the model. Simultaneously, this procedure can be combined with a classic parameter updating scheme to account for the trainable parameters in the original model. This study evaluates the effectiveness of different model bias identification approaches based on Bayesian inference methods. This includes more classical approaches such as direct parameter estimation using MCMC in a Bayesian setup, as well as more recent proposals such as stat-FEM or orthogonal Gaussian Processes. Their potential use in digital twins, generalization capabilities, and computational cost is extensively analyzed. T2 - 5th ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Uncertainty Quantificationin Computational Sciences and Engineering CY - Athen, Greece DA - 12.06.2023 KW - Model bias KW - Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification KW - Digital Twins KW - Gaussian Processes KW - Statistical Finite Element Method PY - 2023 UR - https://2023.uncecomp.org/ SP - 1 EP - 15 AN - OPUS4-58227 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Andrés Arcones, Daniel A1 - Weiser, M. A1 - Koutsourelakis, P-S. A1 - Unger, Jörg F. T1 - Quantifying the uncertainty of predictive simulations in digital twins through the identification of model bias N2 - This work presents a novel approach to quantifying uncertainty in digital twin simulations by addressing model bias through embedded parameter distributions. Traditional Bayesian methods often underestimate uncertainty due to assumptions of model correctness. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian framework combined with Polynomial Chaos Expansion to better capture and propagate uncertainty. The methodology is validated on an analytical example and a real-world case involving thermal deformation predictions of the Nibelungen Bridge, demonstrating improved predictive accuracy and reliability. T2 - fib Symposium 2025 CY - Antibes, France DA - 16.06.2025 KW - Digital Twins KW - Model Bias KW - Predictive simulations KW - Quantifying the uncertainty PY - 2025 SP - 2867 EP - 2873 PB - The fib, Fédération international du béton CY - Antibes, France AN - OPUS4-63629 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -