TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Thöns, S. A1 - Fischer, J. A1 - Bügler, M. A1 - Borrmann, A. A1 - Straub, D. T1 - A software prototype for assessing the reliability of a concrete bridge superstructure subjected to chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion N2 - A software prototype is developed for assessing and updating the reliability of single-cell prestressed concrete box girders subjected to chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion. The underlying system model consists of two integrated sub-models: a condition model for predicting the deterioration state of the box girder and a structural model for evaluating the overall system reliability. The condition model is based on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model which considers the spatial variation of the corrosion process. Inspection data are included in the calculation of the system reliability through Bayesian updating on the basis of the DBN model. To demonstrate the effect of partial inspections, the software prototype is applied to a case study of a typical highway bridge with six spans. The case study illustrates that it is possible to infer the condition of uninspected parts of the structure due to the spatial correlation of the corrosion process. T2 - IALCCE 2014 - 4th International symposium on life-cycle civil engineering CY - Tokyo, Japan DA - 16.11.2014 PY - 2015 SN - 978-1-138-00120-6 SP - 846 EP - 853 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London AN - OPUS4-32220 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Fischer, J. A1 - Bügler, M. A1 - Nowak, M. A1 - Thöns, S. A1 - Borrmann, A. A1 - Straub, D. T1 - Assessing and updating the reliability of concrete bridges subjected to spatial deterioration - principles and software implementation N2 - Inspection and maintenance of concrete bridges is a major cost factor in transportation infrastructure, and there is significant potential for using information gained during inspection to update predictive models of the performance and reliability of such structures. In this context, this paper presents an approach for assessing and updating the reliability of prestressed concrete bridges subjected to chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion. The system deterioration state is determined based on a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model that considers the spatial variability of the corrosion process. The overall system reliability is computed by means of a probabilistic structural model coupled with the deterioration model. Inspection data are included in the system reliability calculation through Bayesian updating on the basis of the DBN model. As proof of concept, a software prototype is developed to implement the method presented here. The software prototype is applied to a typical highway bridge and the influence of inspection information on the system deterioration state and the structural reliability is quantified taking into account the spatial correlation of the corrosion process. This work is a step towards developing a software tool that can be used by engineering practitioners to perform reliability assessments of ageing concrete bridges and update their reliability with inspection and monitoring data. KW - Structural reliability KW - Dynamic Bayesian Networks KW - Spatial deterioration KW - Inspection KW - Monitoring general KW - Analysis and design methods KW - Reinforcement KW - Corrosion KW - Prestressed concrete PY - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/suco.201500014 SN - 1464-4177 VL - 16 IS - 3 SP - 356 EP - 365 PB - Ernst & Sohn CY - Berlin AN - OPUS4-34336 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Thöns, S. A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Faber, M.H. ED - Haukaas, T. T1 - Quantification of the value of structural health monitoring information for fatigue deteriorating structural systems N2 - This paper addresses the quantification of the value of structural health monitoring (SHM) before its implementation for structural systems on the basis of its Value of Information (VoI). The value of SHM is calculated utilizing the Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis modelling the structural life cycle performance, the integrity management and the structural risks. The relevance and precision of SHM information for the reduction of the structural system risks and the expected cost of the structural integrity management throughout the life cycle constitutes the value of SHM and is quantified with this framework. The approach is focused on fatigue deteriorating structural steel systems for which a continuous resistance deterioration formulation is introduced. In a case study, the value of SHM for load monitoring is calculated for a Daniels system subjected to fatigue deterioration. The influence of and the value of SHM in regard to the structural system risks and the integrity management is explicated and explained. The results are pointing to the importance of the consideration of the structural system risks for the quantification of the value of SHM. T2 - ICASP 12 - 12th International conference on applications of statistics and probability in civil engineering CY - Vancouver, Canada DA - 12.07.2015 PY - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.14288/1.0076284 SP - Paper 605, 1 EP - 8 AN - OPUS4-34332 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Fischer, J. A1 - Straub, D. A1 - Thöns, S. A1 - Bügler, M. A1 - Borrmann, A. T1 - Intelligente Bauwerke - Prototyp zur Ermittlung der Schadens- und Zustandsentwicklung für Elemente des Brückenmodells N2 - Dieser Bericht beschreibt ein Systemmodell für eine integrale Ermittlung und Prognose der Schadens- und Zustandsentwicklung der Elemente eines Brückensystems unter Berücksichtigung von Ergebnissen aus Inspektionen und Überwachung. Das Systemmodell wurde anhand eines ausgesuchten Spannbetonüberbaus in einzelliger Kastenbauweise entwickelt. Es besteht aus zwei integralen Teilmodellen: ein Modell zur Beschreibung des Systemschädigungszustandes und ein Modell zur Beschreibung der Standsicherheit. Für die Modellierung des stochastischen Systemschädigungszustandes eines Brückensystems werden dynamische Bayes'sche Netze (DBN) vorgeschlagen. Dieser Ansatz ermöglicht es, alle relevanten Schädigungsprozesse und deren stochastische Abhängigkeiten zu berücksichtigen. Ein wesentlicher Vorteil dieses Ansatzes ist es, dass DBN ideal dafür geeignet sind, Bayes'sche Aktualisierungen auf Grundlage von Informationen aus Inspektionen und Überwachungsmaßnahme auf eine effiziente und robuste Art und Weise durchzuführen. Der DBN-Ansatz ist deshalb für die Entwicklung von Software für das Erhaltungsmanagement von alternden Brückenbauwerken, die vom Benutzer keine vertieften Kenntnisse der Zuverlässigkeitstheorie verlangt, ideal geeignet. Für die Modellierung der Standsicherheit eines alternden Kastenträgers wird vereinfachend Biegeversagen des globalen Längssystems betrachtet. Zur Berechnung der maximalen Traglast eines Kastenträgers infolge des Systemschädigungszustandes wird ein plastisch-plastisches Verfahren eingesetzt, wobei die Beanspruchungen mittels der Fließgelenktheorie unter Ausnutzung der plastischen Beanspruchbarkeit der Querschnitte des Kastenträgers ermittelt werden. Ein Kastenträger versagt, wenn sich durch die Ausbildung einer ausreichend großen Anzahl von Fließgelenken eine kinematische Kette ausbildet. Dieser Modellierungsansatz berücksichtigt Redundanzen, die sich aus der plastischen Beanspruchbarkeit der Querschnitte und der statischen Unbestimmtheit eines Kastenträgers ergeben. Zum Nachweis der praktischen Einsetzbarkeit des entwickelten Systemmodells wurde ein Software-Prototyp entwickelt, der eine intuitiv benutzbare graphische Benutzeroberfläche (Front-End) mit einem Berechnungskern (Back-End) koppelt. Die aktuelle Version des Software-Prototyps implementiert ein Modell der chloridinduzierten Bewehrungskorrosion und ein Tragwerksmodell, welches das Verfahrens der stetigen Laststeigerung zur Bestimmung der maximalen Traglast des Kastenträgers auf der Grundlage eines Finite-Elemente-Modells umsetzt. Zur Durchführung von Bayes'schen Aktualisierungen des Systemschädigungszustandes auf der Grundlage des DBN-Modells implementiert der Prototyp den Likelihood-Weighting-Algorithmus. Die entwickelte Architektur des Prototyps ermöglicht eine Erweiterung der Software um weitere Schädigungsprozesse. Der entwickelte Software-Prototyp ermöglicht Benutzern ohne vertiefte Kenntnisse der Zuverlässigkeitstheorie eine Berechnung des Einflusses von Bauwerksinformationen auf den Systemschädigungszustand und die Tragsicherheit eines Kastenträgers. Auf dieser Grundlage können effiziente Inspektions- und Überwachungsmaßnahmen identifiziert und das Erhaltungsmanagement optimiert werden. KW - Bridge KW - Condition survey KW - Damage KW - Deterioration KW - Development KW - Digital model KW - Durability KW - Engineering structure KW - Expert system KW - Forecast KW - Germany KW - Propability KW - Prototype KW - Reinforced concrete KW - Research report KW - Software KW - Stability KW - Stochastic process PY - 2015 UR - http://bast.opus.hbz-nrw.de/volltexte/2015/1615/ SN - 978-3-95606-190-5 SN - 0943-9293 VL - 117 SP - 1 EP - 74 PB - Carl Schünemann Verlag GmbH CY - Bergisch Gladbach AN - OPUS4-35193 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Berchtold, Florian A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Thöns, S. A1 - Rogge, Andreas T1 - Risk analysis in road tunnels – most important risk indicators N2 - Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to Support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following order: first, fire part (maximum heat release rate); second, evacuation part (maximum preevacuation time); and, third, frequency part (specific frequency of fire). The plausibility of These results is discussed with view to experiences from experimental studies and past fire incidents. Conclusively, further research can focus on these most important risk indicators with the aim to optimise risk analysis. T2 - Seventh International Symposium on Tunnel Safety and Security CY - Boras, Sweden DA - 16.03.2016 KW - Fire KW - Risk KW - Road KW - Tunnel KW - Analysis PY - 2016 SN - 978-91-88349-11-8 SN - 0284-5172 SP - 637 EP - 648 CY - Boras, Sweden AN - OPUS4-37689 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Long, Lijia A1 - Thöns, S. A1 - Döhler, M. T1 - The effects of deterioration models on the value of damage detection information N2 - This paper addresses the effects of the deterioration on the value of damage detection information. The quan-tification of the value of damage detection information for deteriorated structures is based on Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis, comprising structural system performance models, consequence, benefit and costs models and damage detection information models throughout the service life of a structural system. The value of damage detection information accounts for the relevance and precision of the information to ensure the structural integrity and to reduce the potential structural system risks and expected costs throughout the ser-vice life before implementing damage detection system. With the developed approach, the value of damage detection information for a statically determinate Pratt truss bridge girder subjected to different deterioration models is calculated. The analysis shows the impact of the deterioration model parameters on the value of damage detection information. The results can be used to develop optimal maintenance strategies before im-plementation of the damage detection system. T2 - Sixth International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering CY - Ghent, Belgium DA - 28.10.2018 KW - Value of information KW - Damage detection system KW - Deterioration model PY - 2018 SN - 978-1-138-62633-1 SN - 978-1-315-22891-4 SP - 2137 EP - 2144 PB - Taylor & Francis Group AN - OPUS4-46465 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Schneider, Ronald A1 - Rogge, Andreas A1 - Thöns, S. A1 - Bismut, E. A1 - Straub, D. ED - Caspeele, Robby ED - Taerwe, Luc ED - Frangopol, Dan M. T1 - A sampling-based approach to identifying optimal inspection and repair strategies for offshore jacket structures N2 - Identifying optimal inspection and repair strategies for offshore jacket structures is a challenging task. We pre-sent an approach, which is based on recent developments in the field of risk-based operation and maintenance planning at the structural system level. The approach utilizes heuristics to define inspection and repair strate-gies at the system level and to reduce the search space of possible strategies. For each defined strategy, the expected service life cost of inspection, repair and failure is evaluated based on simulated inspection and re-pair histories. Subset simulation is applied to compute the conditional repair and failure probabilities required for this analysis. It also forms the basis for simulating inspection and repair histories. The strategy that mini-mizes the expected service life cost is the optimal one in the set of pre-selected strategies. The underlying condition and performance model accounts for the stochastic dependence among the deterioration states of the different structural elements and the structural redundancy. The approach is demonstrated in a case study considering a jacket-type frame. In this study, we essentially vary the inspection interval, the minimum num-ber of inspected components and the target reliability, and identify the combination that minimizes the ex-pected total service life cost. T2 - The sixth international symposium on life-cycle civil engineering (IALCCE 2018) CY - Ghent, Belgien DA - 28.10.2018 KW - Offshore steel structures KW - Fatigue KW - Reliability KW - Risk KW - Inspection planning PY - 2019 SN - 978-1-138-62633-1 SN - 978-1-315-22891-4 SP - 1081 EP - 1088 PB - Taylor & Francis Group CY - London AN - OPUS4-46434 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Abraham, O. A1 - Niederleithinger, Ernst A1 - Schmidt, F. A1 - Sörensen, J.D. A1 - Thöns, S. A1 - Chapeleau, X. A1 - Ferria, H. T1 - Infrastar Training School on Fatigue and Reliability Analysis of Structures - Training for Assessment of Risk N2 - The Infrastar training school provides lectures and hands-on training to Master and PhD students, early-stage researchers and (young) professionals on all aspects of asset management of civil infrastructures with respect to fatigue of materials. It is organized yearly since 2019 and up to 20 profiles are selected to attend the 3.5-day training. A team of 7 teachers provides insight in multi-disciplinary and intersectoral basic concepts in three core fields, ranging from the design to the dismantling of the structures (bridges and wind turbines): 1. Monitoring and auscultation, 2. Structural and action models, 3. Reliability, risk and decision analyses. Each year, a recognized expert is invited to deliver a keynote lecture to raise interest in a specific aspect of one of the fields covered. The presentation is recorded and published on the training school website. T2 - NDT-CE 2022 CY - Zurich, Switzerland DA - 16.08.2022 KW - Doctoral School KW - Multidisciplinary KW - Fatigue KW - Reliability PY - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-563253 UR - https://www.ndt.net/article/ndtce2022/paper/61021_manuscript.pdf SP - 1 EP - 3 PB - NDT.net AN - OPUS4-56325 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -