TY - CONF A1 - Berchtold, Florian A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Rogge, Andreas A1 - Arnold, L. A1 - Thöns, Sebastian ED - Lönnermark, Anders ED - Ingason, Haukur T1 - Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios N2 - Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and the microscopic evacuation model FDS+Evac. However, the high computational effort of complex models often limits the number of scenarios in practice. To balance this drawback, the scenarios are often simplified. Accordingly, there is a challenge to consider complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement on regions with high metamodel uncertainties; and the combination of two experimental designs for FDS and FDS+Evac. To scrutinise the metamodel, we analysed the effects of three sequential refinement steps on the metamodel itself and on the results of risk analysis. We observed convergence in both after the second step (ten scenarios in FDS, 192 scenarios in FDS+Evac). In comparison to ISTSS 2016, we then ran 20 scenarios in FDS and 800 scenarios in FDS+Evac. Thus, we reduced the number of scenarios remarkably with the improved metamodel. In conclusion, we can now efficiently integrate complex scenarios in risk analysis. We further emphasise that the metamodel is broadly applicable on various experimental or modelling issues in fire safety engineering. T2 - International Symposium on Tunnel Safety and Security CY - Boras, Sweden DA - 14.03.2018 KW - Risk KW - Metamodel KW - CFD KW - Evacuation KW - Uncertainty PY - 2018 SN - 978-91-88695-48-2 VL - 8 SP - 349 EP - 360 AN - OPUS4-44535 LA - eng AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER - TY - CONF A1 - Knaust, Christian A1 - Festag, S. A1 - Brüne, M. A1 - Dietrich, Matthes A1 - Amecke-Mönninghoff, Stephan A1 - Konrath, B. A1 - Arnold, L. T1 - Modellierung eines Brandes in einer U-Bahn-Station: Validierung von Rechenmodellen auf der Grundlage von Feldversuchen N2 - Mittels Propan-Brennern mit einer Brennerleistung 750 kW wurden in einer U-Bahn-Station Heißgasversuche durchgeführt und die zeitlichen und örtlichen Verteilungen der physikalischen Größen (Stoffkonzentration, Temperatur und Rauchgasdichte) erfasst. Laborversuche sowie die Feldversuche sind Validierungsgrundlage für ANSYS CFX und FDS und die später im Rechenmodell der U-Bahn-Station zur Untersuchung der Grundströmung und Rauchausbreitung verwendeten mathematisch-physikalischen Modelle. Der Aufsatz stellt das Projekt ORPHEUS vor und diskutiert die ersten Ergebnisse. T2 - Magdeburger Brand- und Explosionsschutztage 2017 CY - Magdeburg, Germany DA - 23.03.2017 KW - Rechenmodelle KW - Ansys CFX KW - FDS KW - Computational fluid dynamics KW - CFD KW - Rauchausbreitung KW - Validierung KW - U-Bahn KW - Brandszenarien KW - Modellierung von Bränden PY - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b43-396694 SN - 978-3-00-056201-3 SP - 1 EP - 12 PB - Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg CY - Magdeburg AN - OPUS4-39669 LA - deu AD - Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung (BAM), Berlin, Germany ER -