FG Energiewirtschaft
Economists often analyze asymmetric cost passthrough
between retail fuel prices and oil prices (‘Rockets and
Feathers’) as a proxy for market power. Such symmetries have been analyzed for different countries and time periods. However, few studies have been conducted for the German market. Furthermore, no study has differentiated between
company types in this context. In this paper, we analyze market behavior in the German diesel market. We compare the pricing strategies of independent petrol stations with the general diesel market. Independent petrol stations have no connection with popular fuel brands and therefore might decrease market power of dominating brand stations. We use an error correction model for the period from 2011 to 2012 to evaluate the specific market behavior. We conclude that asymmetric pricing behavior is given for independent petrol stations as well as for the whole German market.
Dynamic Forecast Combinations of Improved Individual Forecasts for the Prediction of Wind Energy
(2016)
We study the prediction performance of different improved individual wind energy forecasts in various static and dynamic ombination processes. To this end, we develop a combined error minimization model (CEMM) based on nonlinear functions. This approach reflects the nonlinear nature of weather and especially of wind energy prediction problems. Based on the model, we construct significantly improved individual forecasts. The corresponding time dependent model coefficients are determined by dynamic OLS (ordinary least squares) regression and Kalman filter methods. The former method shows a slightly better performance than the Kalman filter based approaches. Further improvements can be achieved by a combination of these improved wind energy forecasts. In this case, the combination coefficients are calculated from a static and two dynamic OLS regressions. The resulting forecasts are characterized by a further increased prediction accuracy compared to the combination of the uncorrected forecast data and can outperform a given benchmark.