FG Statistische Physik und Nichtlineare Dynamik
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We study an epidemic model for a constant population by taking into account four compartments of the individuals characterizing their states of health. Each individual is in one of the following compartments: susceptible S; incubated, i.e., infected yet not infectious, C; infected and infectious I; and recovered, i.e., immune, R. An infection is visible only when an individual is in state I. Upon infection, an individual performs the transition pathway S→C→I→R→S, remaining in compartments C, I, and R for a certain random waiting time tC, tI, and tR, respectively. The waiting times for each compartment are independent and drawn from specific probability density functions (PDFs) introducing memory into the model. The first part of the paper is devoted to the macroscopic S−C−I−R−S model. We derive memory evolution equations involving convolutions (time derivatives of general fractional type). We consider several cases. The memoryless case is represented by exponentially distributed waiting times. Cases of long waiting times with fat-tailed waiting-time distributions are considered as well where the S−C−I−R−S evolution equations take the form of time-fractional ordinary differential equations. We obtain formulas for the endemic equilibrium and a condition of its existence for cases when the waiting-time PDFs have existing means. We analyze the stability of healthy and endemic equilibria and derive conditions for which the endemic state becomes oscillatory (Hopf) unstable. In the second part, we implement a simple multiple-random-walker approach (microscopic model of Brownian motion of Z independent walkers) with random S−C−I−R−S waiting times in computer simulations. Infections occur with a certain probability by collisions of walkers in compartments I and S. We compare the endemic states predicted in the macroscopic model with the numerical results of the simulations and find accordance of high accuracy. We conclude that a simple random-walker approach offers an appropriate microscopic description for the macroscopic model. The S−C−I−R−S–type models open a wide field of applications allowing the identification of pertinent parameters governing the phenomenology of epidemic dynamics such as extinction, convergence to a stable endemic equilibrium, or persistent oscillatory behavior.
Our study is based on an epidemiological compartmental model, the SIRS model. In the SIRS model, each individual is in one of the states susceptible (S), infected (I) or recovered (R), depending on its state of health. In compartment R, an individual is assumed to stay immune within a finite time interval only and then transfers back to the S compartment. We extend the model and allow for a feedback control of the infection rate by mitigation measures which are related to the number of infections. A finite response time of the feedback mechanism is supposed that changes the low-dimensional SIRS model into an infinite-dimensional set of integro-differential (delay-differential) equations. It turns out that the retarded feedback renders the originally stable endemic equilibrium of SIRS (stable focus) to an unstable focus if the delay exceeds a certain critical value. Nonlinear solutions show persistent regular oscillations of the number of infected and susceptible individuals. In the last part we include noise effects from the environment and allow for a fluctuating infection rate. This results in multiplicative noise terms and our model turns into a set of stochastic nonlinear integro-differential equations. Numerical solutions reveal an irregular behavior of repeated disease outbreaks in the form of infection waves with a variety of frequencies and amplitudes.
A thin liquid film located on the underside of a horizontal solid substrate can be stabilized by the Marangoni effect if the liquid is heated at its free surface. Applying long-wave approximation and projecting the velocity and temperature fields onto a basis of low-order polynomials, we derive a dimension-reduced set of three coupled evolution equations where nonlinearities of both the Navier–Stokes and the heat equation are included. We find that in a certain range of fluid parameters and layer depth, the first bifurcation from the motionless state is oscillatory which sets in with a finite but small wave number. The oscillatory branch is determined using a linear stability analysis of the long-wave model, but also by solving the linearized original hydrodynamic equations. Finally, numerical solutions of the reduced nonlinear model equations in three spatial dimensions are presented.
Surface wave resonance of a liquid (water) layer confined in a circular channel is studied both experimentally and numerically. For the experiment, eight unevenly distributed ultrasonic distance sensors measure the local height of the wave surface. The resonance curves show maxima only for odd multiples of the fundamental resonance frequency . We explained this behavior using a simple intuitive “ping-pong” like model. Collision of wave fronts can be observed for higher frequencies. Also, the wave reflection on the walls can be treated as wave collision with itself. The non-linearity seems to be weak in our study so the delay in the wave propagation before and after the collision is small. Time-space plots show localized propagating waves with high amplitudes for frequencies near resonance. Between the peaks low amplitude and harmonic patterns are observed. However, for higher frequencies, the frequency band for localized waves becomes wider. In the Fourier space-time plane, this can be observed as a point for the harmonic patterns or a superposition of two lines: one line parallel to wave-vector k axis corresponding to the excitation frequency and a second line with inclination given by wave propagation velocity . For planned future work, this result will help us to reconstruct the whole water surface elevation using time-series from only a few measurement points
The objective in the present paper is to study binary fluids with phase field modeling coupled with Navier-Stokes equations. An extended free energy is proposed to account for the continuous path from immiscible to miscible states. We consider fluid pairs that are immiscible for temperatures below the critical one (consolute temperature) and miscible above it. Our extended phase field equation permits us to move from the immiscible state (governed by the Cahn-Hilliard equation) to the miscible state (defined by the species diffusion equation). The scaling of interface tension and interface width with the distance to the critical point is highlighted. The whole system is mechanically excited showing Faraday instability of a flat interface. A linear stability analysis is performed for the stable case (interface waves) as well as for the unstable Faraday one. For the latter, a Floquet analysis shows the well-known Arnold's tongues as a function of the consolute temperature and depth layer. Moreover, two-dimensional finite difference simulations have been performed allowing us to model nonlinear flow patterns both in miscible and immiscible phases. Linear theory and nonlinear simulations show interesting results such as the diminishing of the wavelength of Faraday waves or a shift of the critical vibration amplitude when the consolute temperature is approached.
We introduce a compartment model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states S=susceptible, I=infected, or R=recovered (SIR model). In state R an individual is assumed to stay immune within a finite-time interval. In the first part, we introduce a random lifetime or duration of immunity which is drawn from a certain probability density function. Once the time of immunity is elapsed an individual makes an instantaneous transition to the susceptible state. By introducing a random duration of immunity a memory effect is introduced into the process which crucially determines the epidemic dynamics. In the second part, we investigate the influence of the memory effect on the space-time dynamics of the epidemic spreading by implementing this approach into computer simulations and employ a multiple random walker's model. If a susceptible walker meets an infectious one on the same site, then the susceptible one gets infected with a certain probability. The computer experiments allow us to identify relevant parameters for spread or extinction of an epidemic. In both parts, the finite duration of immunity causes persistent oscillations in the number of infected individuals with ongoing epidemic activity preventing the system from relaxation to a steady state solution. Such oscillatory behavior is supported by real-life observations and not captured by the classical standard SIR model.
A small drop of a heavier fluid may float on the surface of a lighter fluid supported by surface tension forces. In equilibrium, the drop assumes a radially symmetric shape with a circular triple-phase contact line. We show that such a floating liquid drop with a sufficiently small volume has two distinct equilibrium shapes at terrestrial gravity: one with a larger and one with a smaller radius of the triple-phase contact line. Static stability analysis reveals that both shapes could be stable if the drop volume is below a certain critical value. Experiments conducted with μL-sized water drops floating on commercial oil support the existence of multiple contact line radii for a drop with fixed volume. Next, we experimentally study the floatability of a less viscous water drop on the surface of a more viscous and less dense oil, subjected to a low-frequency (Hz-order) vertical vibration. We find that in a certain range of amplitudes, vibration helps heavy liquid drops to stay afloat. The physical mechanism of the increased floatability is explained by the horizontal elongation of the drop driven by subharmonic Faraday waves. The average length of the triple-phase contact line increases as the drop elongates that leads to a larger average lifting force produced by the surface tension.
A nonlinear Cauchy–Poisson problem with impulsive surface forcing is investigated analytically and numerically. An incompressible liquid with an initially horizontal surface is instantaneously put into motion by an impulsive surface pressure distribution turned on and off during an infinitesimal time interval. We consider symmetric, antisymmetric and asymmetric pressure impulses based on dipoles and quadrupoles. The subsequent inviscid free-surface flow is governed by fully nonlinear surface conditions, which are solved exactly to third order in a small-time expansion. The small-time expansion applies to flows dominated by inertia. Such flows are generated by relatively strong pressure impulses, measured in gravitational units. We solve the problem numerically and find that only relatively weak pressure impulses will lead to oscillatory waves. The free surface will break before a full gravitational oscillation is completed when the amplitude of the pressure impulse exceeds one gravitational unit.