FG Datenstrukturen und Softwarezuverlässigkeit
We present a methodology for systematically extending epidemic models to multilevel and multiscale spatio-temporal pandemic ones. Our approach builds on the use of coloured stochastic and continuous Petri nets facilitating the sound component-based extension of basic SIR models to include population stratification and also spatio-geographic information and travel connections, represented as graphs, resulting in robust stratified pandemic metapopulation models. The epidemic components and the spatial and stratification data are combined together in these coloured models and built in to the underlying expanded models. As a consequence this method is inherently easy to use, producing scalable and reusable models with a high degree of clarity and accessibility which can be read either in a deterministic or stochastic paradigm. Our method is supported by a publicly available platform PetriNuts; it enables the visual construction and editing of models; deterministic, stochastic and hybrid simulation as well as structural and behavioural analysis. All models are available as Supplementary Material, ensuring reproducibility. All uncoloured Petri nets can be animated within a web browser at https://www-dssz.informatik.tu-cottbus.de/DSSZ/Research/ModellingEpidemics, assisting the comprehension of those models. We aim to enable modellers and planners to construct clear and robust models by themselves.
We present a methodology for systematically extending epidemic models to multilevel and multiscale spatio-temporal pandemic ones. Our approach builds on the use of coloured stochastic and continuous Petri nets facilitating the sound component-based extension of basic SIR models to include population stratification and also spatio-geographic information and travel connections, represented as graphs, resulting in robust stratified pandemic metapopulation models. This method is inherently easy to use, producing scalable and reusable models with a high degree of clarity and accessibility which can be read either in a deterministic or stochastic paradigm. Our method is supported by a publicly available platform PetriNuts; it enables the visual construction and editing of models; deterministic, stochastic and hybrid simulation as well as structural and behavioural analysis. All the models are available as supplementary material, ensuring reproducibility.
Over the last twenty years, Petri nets have been increasingly adopted for modelling and simulating biological systems, as they offer an intuitive and graphical approach for this purpose. Their usability convenience comes from the fact that they offer many types of elements to describe systems in a qualitative and quantitative way. Coloured Petri nets are particularly useful to model systems with repeated components in a compact fashion. Our tool Snoopy for modelling and simulating Petri nets is one of the most well-known tools supporting a family of related Petri net classes comprising stochastic, continuous and hybrid Petri nets, and covering uncoloured and coloured Petri nets alike. However, kinetic information of a biological system, i.e. kinetic parameters may be uncertain, due to many reasons, e.g. environmental factors. Besides, coloured Petri nets as they were previously supported in Snoopy suffered from some inconsistencies. Due to these inconsistencies, exploring the model behaviour using different sizes (scaleability) was not feasible. Both challenges call for a new and more powerful approach integrating the modelling of uncertainties together with modelling features supporting repeated structures in a compact and scalable way.
This thesis comprises two major contributions: Firstly, we introduce the definition and present the simulation algorithm for both uncoloured and coloured fuzzy Petri nets, by extending the existing quantitative uncoloured and coloured Petri nets in Snoopy. This includes discretising the uncertain kinetic parameters to crisp values by using sampling strategies. Secondly, we harmonise coloured Petri nets in Snoopy with their uncoloured counterparts and we extend the Snoopy’s coloured Petri nets by all the features, which are supported by the coloured abstract net description language - an exchange format of coloured Petri nets in our PetriNuts tool family.
By performing fuzzy simulation, one can obtain two kinds of output: fuzzy bands of each output variable and their corresponding timed-membership functions. Each fuzzy band describes the uncertainties associated with the input, whereas membership functions give more accurate information about the associated uncertainties. The most important features that we obtain by harmonising coloured Petri nets are to develop scaleable models, by defining scaling factors as constants and unifying the usage of coloured Petri nets with the other tools in our PetriNuts tool family.