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Daily precipitation statistics as simulated by the ERA-Interim-driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble are evaluated over two distinct regions of the European continent, namely the European Alps and Spain. The potential added value of the high-resolution 12 km experiments with respect to their 50 km resolution counterparts is investigated. The statistics considered consist of wet-day intensity and precipitation frequency as a measure of mean precipitation, and three precipitation-derived indicators (90th percentile on wet days—90pWET, contribution of the very wet days to total precipitation—R95pTOT and number of consecutive dry days—CDD). As reference for model evaluation high resolution gridded observational data over continental Spain (Spain011/044) and the Alpine region (EURO4M-APGD) are used. The assessment and comparison of the two resolutions is accomplished not only on their original horizontal grids (approximately 12 and 50 km), but the high-resolution RCMs are additionally regridded onto the coarse 50 km grid by grid cell aggregation for the direct comparison with the low resolution simulations. The direct application of RCMs e.g. in many impact modelling studies is hampered by model biases. Therefore bias correction (BC) techniques are needed at both resolutions to ensure a better agreement between models and observations. In this work, the added value of the high resolution (before and after the bias correction) is assessed and the suitability of these BC methods is also discussed. Three basic BC methods are applied to isolate the effect of biases in mean precipitation, wet-day intensity and wet-day frequency on the derived indicators. Daily precipitation percentiles are strongly affected by biases in the wet-day intensity, whereas the dry spells are better represented when the simulated precipitation frequency is adjusted to the observed one. This confirms that there is no single optimal way to correct for RCM biases, since correcting some distributional features typically leads to an improvement of some aspects but to a deterioration of others. Regarding mean seasonal biases before the BC, we find only limited evidence for an added value of the higher resolution in the precipitation intensity and frequency or in the derived indicators. Thereby, evaluation results considerably depend on the RCM, season and indicator considered. High resolution simulations better reproduce the indicators’ spatial patterns, especially in terms of spatial correlation. However, this improvement is not statistically significant after applying specific BC methods.
This study investigates to what extent the frequency of hail events in the summer months has changed during the past decades and which changes are expected to occur in the future. To improve the diagnostics of hail events by considering various factors relevant for the formation of hail, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. This statistical model is based on a combination of appropriate meteorological parameters (convective parameter, moisture content, etc.) and synoptic weather types. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index. Validations with independent data sets confirm the reliability of the model results. For Germany, the logistic hail model applied to reanalysis data over the past decades shows a markedly north‐to‐south gradient with most of the potential hail days occurring in the south. Applied to an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations, it is found that the potential for hail events will increase in the future (2021–2050) compared to the past (1971–2000), but only statistically significant in the northwest and south of Germany.
Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of inertial wave attractors have been carried out in a librating Taylor-Couette system with broken mirror symmetry in the radial-axial cross-section. The inertial wave excitation mechanism and its localisation at the edges was clarified by applying boundary layer theory. Additional resonance peaks in the simulated response spectra were found to agree with low-order wave attractors obtained by geometric ray tracing. Numerics and theory are in qualitative agreement with recent lab experiments.
Tropospheric Chemistry
(2002)
We used the regional climate model CCLM 4 to reconstruct the climate over the CADSES regions for the period 1961-2000. This most recent model version is currently still in a test phase. The simulation quality for this part of the entire simulation area is exemplarily analyzed by using a small but representative subset of model variables. Mean sea level pressure is chosen as an indicator for the behavior of the near-surface dynamics. Furthermore, the two regional variables 2 m temperature and precipitation are evaluated, which are of relevance for hydrological applications. For additional analyses to identify sources of uncertainty, we used soil moisture and cloudiness. Altogether, the accuracy of the simulation results can be judged as being in good agreement with the results of similar simulations by other regional climate models over Europe. Area-averaged monthly mean 2 m temperatures during winter show a cold bias of about -2 K. The simulated mean sea level pressure is with a bias of about 2 hPa slightly too high compared to the used reference data set. Although cloud cover evaluation hints at insufficiencies in the corresponding parameterization, further analyses are required to unambiguously identify the causes for this cold bias. During summer, higher 2 m temperatures linked to reduced precipitation are identified in nearly identical regions over southern and southeastern Europe. Further analyses of soil moisture evolution and cloud cover give evidence for a source of uncertainty in the surface hydrological scheme. Altogether, the detected differences do not exceed the typical ranges of uncertainty in comparable regional climate simulations over Europe. For input in hydrological applications, however, the uncertainties produced by the CCLM simulation described here have to be reduced in the medium term.
Erratum to: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research
(2014)
A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.
The mechanism of localized inertial wave excitation and its efficiency is investigated for an annular cavity rotating with Ω0 . Meridional symmetry is broken by replacing
the inner cylinder with a truncated cone (frustum). Waves are excited by individual longitudinal libration of the walls. The geometry is non-separable and exhibits wave
focusing and wave attractors. We investigated laboratory and numerical results for the Ekman number E ≈ 10−6. inclination α = 5.71◦ and libration amplitudes ε 0.2 within the inertial wave band 0 < ω < 2Ω0 . Under the assumption that the inertial waves do not essentially affect the boundary-layer structure, we use classical boundary-layer analysis to study oscillating Ekman layers over a librating wall that is at an angle α = 0 to the axis of rotation. The Ekman layer erupts at frequency ω = f∗, where f∗ ≡ 2Ω0 sin α is the effective Coriolis parameter in a plane tangential to the wall. For
the selected inclination this eruption occurs for the forcing frequency ω/Ω0 = 0.2. For the librating lids eruption occurs at ω/Ω0 = 2. The study reveals that the frequency dependence of the total kinetic energy Kω of the excited wave field is strongly connected to the square of the Ekman pumping velocity wE (ω) that, in the linear limit, becomes singular when the boundary layer erupts. This explains the frequency dependence of non-resonantly excited waves. By the localization of the forcing, the two configurations investigated, (i) frustum libration and (ii) lids together with outer cylinder in libration, can be clearly distinguished by their response spectra. Good agreement was found for the spatial structure of low-order wave attractors and periodic orbits (both characterized by a small number of reflections) in the frequency windows predicted by geometric ray tracing. For ‘resonant’ frequencies a significantly increased total bulk energy was found, while the energy in the boundary layer remained nearly constant. Inertial wave energy enters the bulk flow via corner beams, which are parallel to the characteristics of the underlying Poincaré problem. Numerical simulations revealed a mismatch between the wall-parallel mass fluxes
near the corners. This leads to boundary-layer eruption and the generation of inertial waves in the corners.
Inertial waves and wave attractors in a rotating annulus with inner or outer cylinder libration
(2013)
The multiple nested three-dimensional (3D) mesoscale Eulerian grid point model MM5 is directly coupled with a Lagrangian particle trajectory model in order to perform a four-dimensional source attribution for the area of Berlin based on the horizontal distribution of the import probability density (IPD).