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Institute
Most semi-arid regions face strong population growth. For example, with the actual growth rate in Jordan, population doubles every 25 years. Many countries in the desert belt experienced rapid modernisation during the last 50 years. Taking Jordan again as an example, modern western life styles are spreading quickly. They co-exist with traditional herding and farming in the rural areas, but urbanization is rapidly expanding.
According to the definition of sustainability, the achievements of past civilizations, e.g. the floodwater farming near the site of Umm el-Jimal, were sustainable since they did not rely on non-renewable resources. But they did not allow continuous settlement from antiquity until today. It is often assumed that breaks in settlement history were due to over-exploitation of the environment, e.g. overgrazing and soil erosion.
The overview of developments in the desert makes clear that Progressive Development is already implemented is many areas, although it is not acknowledged as such and a coordinating master plan is missing. International plans would be very desirable, since water is a transboundary issue. For example, exploitation of the Disi aquifer led to conflict between Jordan and Saudi Arabia [1]. Jordan, Syria, Israel and Palestine share the Yarmouk River as the primary freshwater resource, which is a very sensitive political issue.
It is a deeply entrenched belief that historic land use led to land degradation in the desert belts. Supposedly, overgrazing and farming caused erosion, and irrigation led to salinization. Considering the gaps in settlement history, mismanagement is considered a prime reason for abandonment [1–3]. If this is so, Progressive Development might be doomed to fail, because the soils are already degraded and will inevitably degrade further. Climate variations, however, can also lead to degradation, and might have caused the fluctuations of settlement history. The correct assessment of the past will be most important for evaluating the impact of Progressive Development. This and the geographic law of soil zonality allow predicting how soils and the environment will develop under irrigation and permanent vegetation.
Large-scale irrigation projects are theoretically beneficial; however there are examples of outstanding failures which partly led to ecological catastrophes. We think that irrigation per se does not necessarily lead to land degradation. Even in the famous case of the Mesopotamian plains, the idea that ancient Sumerian irrigation caused irreversible salinization [1] is far less evident than often assumed in the public discussion[2].
Discussion and Conclusion
(2010)
The current discussion of “sustainability” focuses on aspects of conserving the environmental status quo. However, the environmental history of the desert belts is characterized by strong environmental fluctuations, and modern technology started to irreversibly change societies living in arid regions, initiating a growth which long since crossed the limits that could be supported by renewable resources. Due to these conditions, it seems unlikely that “sustainability” in the conservative meaning of preserving the status quo will be feasible in the desert belts. In fact, Progressive Development is already implemented, though not recognised as such and without coordinating master plans.
Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is recognised by a vast number of countries worldwide as an important instrument for integrating environmental concerns into development strategies – policies, plans and programmes [1]. SEA is a planning and decision-aiding tool that informs decision-makers about potential effects of development strategies on the environment. In the EU it is legally defined by the EC SEA Directive.