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Is Germany on track to achieve 2030 climate and energy targets?

  • The future development of CO2emissions in the German electricity sector by 2030 is unclear: On the one hand, the amendment to the Climate Protection Act (from August 2021) aims to tighten emission reduction targets in order to promote the path to a decarbonised energy system. On the other hand, the complex interplay between the main instruments for reducing carbon emissions, fuel prices and the current energy shortage as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine is creating pressure for an increase in emissions. In our study, we examine whether Germany is on track to achieve its climate protection targets for 2030 and which measures can increase the likelihood. To do this, we use an energy system model parameterized to reflect the situation in the energy market in 2021, i.e. before Russia's attack on Ukraine. In addition to the quantitative side, we provide a qualitative analysis of the energy market in the light of recent events. We stress the importance of introducing a carbon price floor that can be dynamically changed in responseThe future development of CO2emissions in the German electricity sector by 2030 is unclear: On the one hand, the amendment to the Climate Protection Act (from August 2021) aims to tighten emission reduction targets in order to promote the path to a decarbonised energy system. On the other hand, the complex interplay between the main instruments for reducing carbon emissions, fuel prices and the current energy shortage as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine is creating pressure for an increase in emissions. In our study, we examine whether Germany is on track to achieve its climate protection targets for 2030 and which measures can increase the likelihood. To do this, we use an energy system model parameterized to reflect the situation in the energy market in 2021, i.e. before Russia's attack on Ukraine. In addition to the quantitative side, we provide a qualitative analysis of the energy market in the light of recent events. We stress the importance of introducing a carbon price floor that can be dynamically changed in response to the development of other market forces and policies. This instrument would institutionalize a more plausible path to decarbonization and provide reassurance to investors.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author: Smaranda Sgarciu, Felix MüsgensORCiD, Sebastian Osorio, Michael Pahle
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s41025-023-00255-0
ISSN:2364-3943
Title of the source (German):List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik
Document Type:Scientific journal article peer-reviewed
Language:English
Year of publication:2024
Volume/Year:49
First Page:93
Last Page:107
Way of publication:Open Access
Faculty/Chair:Fakultät 3 Maschinenbau, Elektro- und Energiesysteme / FG Energiewirtschaft
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