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Enhancing energy system models using better load forecasts

  • Since energy system models require a large amount of technical and economic data, their quality significantly affects the reliability of the results. However, some publicly available data sets, such as the transmission system operators’ day-ahead load forecasts, are known to be biased and inaccurate, leading to lower energy system model performance. We propose a time series model that enhances the accuracy of transmission system operators’ load forecast data in real-time, using only the load forecast error’s history as input. We further present an energy system model developed specifically for price forecasts of the short-term day-ahead market. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the improved load data as input by applying it to this model, which shows a strong reduction in pricing errors, particularly during periods of high prices and tight markets. Our results highlight the potential of our method the enhance the accuracy of energy system models using improved input data.

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Metadaten
Author: Thomas Möbius, Mira Watermeyer, Oliver Grothe, Felix MüsgensORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-023-00590-3
ISSN:1868-3975
Title of the source (English):Energy Systems
Document Type:Scientific journal article peer-reviewed
Language:English
Year of publication:2023
Tag:Data pre-processing; Day-ahead electricity prices; Energy system modelling
First Page:1
Last Page:30
Way of publication:Open Access
Faculty/Chair:Fakultät 3 Maschinenbau, Elektro- und Energiesysteme / FG Energiewirtschaft
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