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From Epidemic to Pandemic Modelling

  • We present a methodology for systematically extending epidemic models to multilevel and multiscale spatio-temporal pandemic ones. Our approach builds on the use of coloured stochastic and continuous Petri nets facilitating the sound component-based extension of basic SIR models to include population stratification and also spatio-geographic information and travel connections, represented as graphs, resulting in robust stratified pandemic metapopulation models. This method is inherently easy to use, producing scalable and reusable models with a high degree of clarity and accessibility which can be read either in a deterministic or stochastic paradigm. Our method is supported by a publicly available platform PetriNuts; it enables the visual construction and editing of models; deterministic, stochastic and hybrid simulation as well as structural and behavioural analysis. All the models are available as supplementary material, ensuring reproducibility.

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Metadaten
Author: Shannon Connolly, David Gilbert, Monika HeinerORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2107.00835
Publisher:Cornell University
Place of publication:arXiv
Document Type:Report
Language:English
Year of publication:2021
Contributing Corporation:Brandenburg University of Technology
Tag:ODEs; SIR model; coloured Petri nets; continuous Petri nets; geographic spatio-temporal 20 modelling; multiscale models; simulation; stochastic Petri nets
Number of pages:79
Faculty/Chair:Fakultät 1 MINT - Mathematik, Informatik, Physik, Elektro- und Informationstechnik / FG Datenstrukturen und Softwarezuverlässigkeit
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