• search hit 6 of 12
Back to Result List

QUIRCS: Quantification of uncertainties in regional climate and climate change simulations. German Climate Research Programme (2001-2006), Final Symposium 2005

  • The comparison of multi model runs of the reference period 1979-1993 with different observational data sets for several climate parameters enables the quantification of the model uncertainties in representing present-day climate conditions for Central Europe. The quantification is based on a number of objective distance measures which detect differences in the spatial and temporal structures of the data sets being compared. Additional climate change simulations of two 30-year periods (control and scenario simulation) are performed for the SRES B2 global change scenario. They indicate a severe warming for Germany with values of up to 4 K in summer which is much higher than the quantified uncertainty range of the regional models for this climate parameter. For precipitation in Germany, a weak reduction during the summer months is overcompensated by an increase in winter and fall. However, the simulated changes are smaller than the quantified uncertainty range for the regional models so that in particular a significant reduction of theThe comparison of multi model runs of the reference period 1979-1993 with different observational data sets for several climate parameters enables the quantification of the model uncertainties in representing present-day climate conditions for Central Europe. The quantification is based on a number of objective distance measures which detect differences in the spatial and temporal structures of the data sets being compared. Additional climate change simulations of two 30-year periods (control and scenario simulation) are performed for the SRES B2 global change scenario. They indicate a severe warming for Germany with values of up to 4 K in summer which is much higher than the quantified uncertainty range of the regional models for this climate parameter. For precipitation in Germany, a weak reduction during the summer months is overcompensated by an increase in winter and fall. However, the simulated changes are smaller than the quantified uncertainty range for the regional models so that in particular a significant reduction of the annual precipitation in Germany cannot be stated on basis of the current simulations for the B2 scenario. Aim of the research in the context of DEKLIM A reliable assessment of possible future climate developments requires an improved understanding of climate and its variability as well as a detailed knowledge of the uncertainties of climate simulations which provide the requested information about the potential degree of future changes. The project QUIRCS focuses on the climate patterns of Central Europe and investigates the quality of currently used regional climate models and regionalization techniques by a model inter-comparison, a substantial model evaluation, additional sensitivity studies and an extensive analysis of climate data. The major scientific aims are • to quantify the uncertainties of regional climate simulations and of observed climate data, • to provide a regional climate change scenario for Europe with a particular focus on Germany, • to assess the reliability of the produced climate change signals with respect to the Collapse.show moreshow less

Export metadata

Additional Services

Search Google Scholar
Metadaten
Author: Klaus KeulerORCiD, Alexander Block, Wilfried Ahrens, Daniela Jacob, Diana Rechid, Lola Kotova, Sven Kotlarski, Dietrich Heimann, Maria Zemsch, Richard Knoche, Ernst Dittmann, Andreas Walter, Franz Berger, Michael Sommer
URL:http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.596.557&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Publisher:DLR
Place of publication:Bonn
Document Type:Report
Language:English
Year of publication:2005
Tag:climate change; climate data; model evaluation; regional climate simulation; uncertainty
Number of pages:9
Faculty/Chair:Fakultät 2 Umwelt und Naturwissenschaften / FG Atmosphärische Prozesse
Einverstanden ✔
Diese Webseite verwendet technisch erforderliche Session-Cookies. Durch die weitere Nutzung der Webseite stimmen Sie diesem zu. Unsere Datenschutzerklärung finden Sie hier.