TY - GEN A1 - Diancoumba, M. A1 - MacCarthy, Dilys Sefakor A1 - Webber, Heidi A1 - Akinseye, Folorunso M. A1 - Faye, Babacar A1 - Noulèkoun, Florent A1 - Whitbread, Anthony Michael A1 - Corbeels, Marc A1 - Worou, Nadine O. T1 - Scientific agenda for climate risk and impact assessment of West African cropping systems T2 - Global Food Security N2 - Rainfed agriculture is at the centre of many West African economies and a key livelihood strategy in the region. Highly variable rainfall patterns lead to a situation in which farmers’ investments to increase productivity are very risky and will become more risky with climate change. Process-based cropping system models are a key tool to assess the impact of weather variability and climate change, as well as the effect of crop management options on crop yields, soil fertility and farming system resilience and widely used by the West African scientific community. Challenges to use are related to their consideration of the prevailing systems and conditions of West African farms, as well as limited data availability for calibration. We outline here a number of factors need to be considered if they are to contribute to the scientific basis underlying transformation of farming systems towards sustainability. These include: capacity building, improved models, FAIR data, research partnerships and using models in co-development settings. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100710 SN - 2211-9124 VL - 38 PB - Elsevier BV ER - TY - GEN A1 - Adelesi, Opeyemi Obafemi A1 - Kim, Yean-Uk A1 - Schuler, Johannes A1 - Zander, Peter A1 - Njoroge, Michael Murithi A1 - Waithaka, Lilian A1 - Abdulai, Alhassan Lansah A1 - MacCarthy, Dilys Sefakor A1 - Webber, Heidi T1 - The potential for index-based crop insurance to stabilize smallholder farmers' gross margins in Northern Ghana T2 - Agricultural Systems N2 - Context Smallholder farmers in semi-arid West Africa face challenges such as weather variability, soil infertility, and inadequate market infrastructure, hindering their adoption of improved farming practices. Economic risks associated with uncertain weather, production and market conditions often result in measures such as selling assets and withdrawing children from school, resulting in long-term impoverishment. To break these poverty traps, there is a need for affordable and sustainable risk management approaches at the farm level. Proposed strategies include risk reduction through stress-resistant crop varieties and diversification, additional investments transfer options like crop insurance and contract farming. Despite experimentation with insurance products in sub-Saharan Africa, low adoption persists due to many factors including high premiums, imperfect indices, and cognitive factors. Objective The objective of this study is to assess the probability of two different index-based insurance products to stabilize smallholder farmers' income and limit asset losses in Northern Ghana using an integrated bio-economic modelling approach. Method We adapted an existing integrated bio-economic model comprising a process-based crop model, farm simulation model, and annual optimization model by including insurance contracts to assess their impacts on farmers' income and assets. We collaborated with an insurance service provider in sub–Saharan Africa to design and compare two weather index-based insurance contracts—one covering seeding costs and another addressing full input costs. Additionally, we considered the impact of management adaptations, such as replanting after crop establishment failure. Results The result from the study suggests that except for the most resource constrained, farmers would be better off purchasing seed insurance and replanting in the event of weather shocks, stabilizing their incomes and reducing the sale of their assets. These insurance options are less expensive than full weather index insurance for the resource-constrained farmers considering that extreme weather conditions do not occur regularly. Significance This study is significant for smallholder farmers in semi-arid West Africa, who are faced with economic and environmental challenges, challenging efforts to improve livelihoods. Focusing on Northern Ghana, the research assesses the viability of two index-based insurance products using an integrated bio-economic modelling approach. By presenting the probability of outcomes for income and farm assets, particularly through seed insurance incentivizing replanting after extreme weather shocks, the study offers a cost-effective solution for resource-constrained farmers. The results suggest the potential for weather-index insurance contracts to help smallholder farmers avoid bankruptcy or fall into poverty traps, especially after shock years. KW - Weather index-based insurance KW - Seed insurance KW - Bio-economic farm model KW - Integrated model KW - Weather risk KW - Northern Ghana Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104130 SN - 0308-521X VL - 221 PB - Elsevier BV ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi A1 - Webber, Heidi A1 - Asseng, Senthold A1 - Boote, Kenneth A1 - Durand, Jean Louis A1 - Ewert, Frank A1 - Martre, Pierre A1 - MacCarthy, Dilys Sefakor T1 - Climate change impacts on crop yields T2 - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00491-0 SN - 2662-138X VL - 4 IS - 12 SP - 831 EP - 846 PB - Springer Science and Business Media LLC ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nóia-Júnior, Rogério de S. A1 - Ruane, Alex C. A1 - Athanasiadis, Ioannis N. A1 - Ewert, Frank A1 - Harrison, Matthew Tom A1 - Jägermeyr, Jonas A1 - Martre, Pierre A1 - Müller, Christoph A1 - Palosuo, Taru A1 - Salmerón, Montserrat A1 - Webber, Heidi A1 - Maccarthy, Dilys Sefakor A1 - Asseng, Senthold T1 - Crop models for future food systems T2 - One earth N2 - Global food systems face intensifying pressure from climate change, resource scarcity, and rising demand, making their transformation toward resilience and sustainability urgent. Process-based crop growth models (CMs) are critical for understanding cropping system dynamics and supporting decisions from crop breeding to adaptive management across diverse environments. Yet, current CMs struggle to capture extreme events, novel production systems, and rapidly evolving data streams, limiting their ability to inform robust and timely decisions. Here, we outline CM structure, identify key knowledge gaps, and propose six priorities for next-generation CMs: (1) expand applications to extremes and to diverse systems; (2) support climate-resilient breeding; (3) integrate with machine learning for better inputs and forecasts; (4) link with standardized sensor and database networks; (5) promote modular, open-source architectures; and (6) build capacity in under-resourced regions. These priorities will substantially enhance CM robustness, comparability, and usability, reinforcing their role in guiding sustainable food system transformation. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101487 SN - 2590-3322 VL - 8 IS - 10 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - Elsevier BV CY - Amsterdam ER -