TY - CHAP A1 - Pohle, Ina A1 - Koch, Hagen A1 - Gädeke, Anne A1 - Kaltofen, Michael A1 - Schramm, Michael A1 - Redetzky, Michael A1 - Müller, F. A1 - Grünewald, Uwe ED - Brebbia, Carlos A. T1 - Potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed discharges of the Rivers Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse, Central Europe T2 - Water and Society II N2 - The water balance of the Rivers Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse is profoundly disturbed due to large-scale open-cast lignite mining activities and water management. Together with continental climate conditions this affects water resources and water users in the region. Driven by scenarios of the regional climate model STAR which assume increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation, two hydrological models, the Soil and Water Integrated Model SWIM and the catchment model EGMO simulate declining natural discharges in the region. Thus, decreasing managed discharges are simulated with the long term water management model WBalMo. The refinement of the simulation time step of WBalMo from months to weeks improves the consideration of climate variability and is also associated with higher simulated managed discharges in early summer. Management scenarios in terms of a reduced outlet capacity of a mining lake reservoir result in higher releases from other reservoirs and slightly reduced summer discharges in downstream river sections. KW - water management modelling KW - hydrological modelling KW - climate change KW - mining Y1 - 2013 SN - 978-1-84564-742-1 SN - 978-1-84564-743-8 SP - 3 EP - 16 PB - WIT Press CY - Ashurst, Southampton, UK ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pohle, Ina A1 - Koch, Hagen A1 - Conradt, Tobias A1 - Gädeke, Anne A1 - Grünewald, Uwe T1 - Potential impacts of climate change and regional anthropogenic activities in Central European mesoscale catchments T2 - Hydrological Sciences Journal – Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques N2 - The Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) was used to assess potential climate and land-use change impacts in the Central European catchments of Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse which are heavily influenced by opencast lignite mining. To account for potential climate change, scenarios of two statistical regional climate models, STAR and WettReg, were used. Regional anthropogenic change was considered in terms of increasing cultivation of energy crops (oilseed rape, silage maize, sunflower and sorghum) and decreasing mining activities (decreasing groundwater depression cone). In the climate scenarios, decreased natural discharge, by up to 60% in the long-term average, was simulated. In simulations with climate scenarios and oilseed rape, this effect is halved; the other energy crops have a small additional impact on discharge. The decreasing groundwater depression cone slightly compensates for climate change impacts. Overall, potential impacts of regional anthropogenic activities are secondary to those of climate change. N2 - Le modèle intégré sol et eau (SWIM) a été utilisé pour évaluer les impacts potentiels des changements climatiques et d’utilisation du sol dans les bassins versants de l’Elster Noire, de la Spree et de la Neis-se de Lusace, qui sont fortement influencés par l’exploitation minière à ciel ouvert de lignite. Pour tenir compte des changements climatiques potentiels, on a utilisé les scénarios de deux modèles climatiques statistiques régionaux, STAR et WettReg. Les changements anthropiques régionaux ont été pris en compte en considérant une augmentation des cultures énergétiques (colza, tournesol, maïs ensilage et sorgho) et une diminution des activités minières (diminution du cône de dépression de la nappe). Dans les scénarios climatiques, une diminution du débit moyen naturel allant jusqu’à 60% a été simulée sur le long terme. Dans les simulations avec des scénarios climatiques et le colza, cet effet est réduit de moitié, les autres cultures énergétiques ayant peu d’impact supplémentaire sur les débits. La diminution du cône de dépression des eaux souterraines compense légèrement les impacts du changement climatique. Globalement, les impacts potentiels des activités anthropiques régionales sont secondaires par rapport à ceux des changements climatiques. KW - climate change KW - hydrology KW - SWIM KW - land-use change KW - bioenergy KW - mining KW - changement climatique KW - changement d’utilisation du sol KW - bioénergie KW - exploitation minière Y1 - 2015 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.968571 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.968571 SN - 0262-6667 SN - 2150-3435 N1 - Special issue: Evaluation of Water Resources with SWAT VL - 60 IS - 5 SP - 912 EP - 928 ER -