TY - GEN A1 - Hübener, Heike A1 - Hoffmann, Peter A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Pfeifer, Susanne A1 - Ramthun, Hans A1 - Spekat, Arne A1 - Steger, Christian A1 - Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten T1 - Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results T2 - Advances in Science and Research Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-261-2017 SN - 1992-0628 SN - 1992-0636 VL - 14 SP - 261 EP - 269 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Knoche, Richard A1 - Keuler, Klaus T1 - Dynamische Regionalisierung T2 - Promet : meteorologische Fortbildung Y1 - 2017 UR - http://www.dwd.de/promet SN - 0340-4552 SN - 2194-5950 IS - 99 SP - 29 EP - 40 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hübener, Heike A1 - Bülow, Katharina A1 - Fooken, Cornelia A1 - Früh, Barbara A1 - Hoffmann, Peter A1 - Höpp, Simona A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Menz, Christoph A1 - Mohr, Viktoria A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Woldt, Michael T1 - ReKliEs-De Ergebnisbericht Y1 - 2017 UR - reklies.hlnug.de/fileadmin/tmpl/reklies/dokumente/ReKliEs-De-Ergebnisbericht.pdf N1 - weitere Autoren PB - Eigenverlag des Hessischen Landesamtes HLNUG CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kjellström, Erik A1 - Nikulin, Grigory A1 - Strandberg, Gustav A1 - Bøssing Christensen, Ole A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Lenderink, Geert A1 - Meijgaard, Erik van A1 - Schär, Christoph A1 - Somot, Samuel T1 - European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2°C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models T2 - Earth System Dynamics Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018 SN - 2190-4987 N1 - viele weitere Autoren IS - 9 SP - 459 EP - 478 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hübener, Heike A1 - Spekat, Arne A1 - Bülow, Katharina A1 - Früh, Barbara A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Menz, Christoph A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Ramthun, Hans T1 - ReKliEs-De Nutzerhandbuch Y1 - 2017 UR - http://reklies.hlnug.de/fileadmin/tmpl/reklies/dokumente/ReKliEs-De-Nutzerhandbuch.pdf U6 - https://doi.org/10.2312/WDCC/ReKliEsDe_Nutzerhandbuch N1 - weitere Autoren PB - World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ CY - Hamburg ER - TY - GEN A1 - Vautard, Robert A1 - Kadygrov, Nikolay A1 - Iles, Carley A1 - Keuler, Klaus T1 - Evaluation of the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble T2 - J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. N2 - The use of regional climate model‐based projections for providing regional climate information in a research and climate service contexts is currently expanding very fast. This has been possible thanks to a considerable effort in developing comprehensive ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) projections, especially for Europe, in the EURO‐CORDEX community (Jacob et al., 2014; Jacob et al., 2020). Currently, EURO‐CORDEX has developed a set of 55 historical and scenario projections (RCP8.5) using 8 driving global climate models (GCMs) and 11 RCMs. This article presents the ensemble including its design. We target the analysis to better characterize the quality of the regional climate models by providing an evaluation of these RCM simulations over a number of classical climate variables and extreme and impact‐oriented indices for the period 1981‐2010. For the main variables, the model simulations generally agree with observations and reanalyses. However, several systematic biases are found as well, with shared responsibilities among RCMs and GCMs: simulations are overall too cold, too wet and too windy compared to available observations or reanalyses. Some simulations show strong systematic biases on temperature, others on precipitation or dynamical variables but none of the models/simulations can be defined as the best or the worst on all criteria. The article aims at supporting a proper use of these simulations within a climate services context. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032344 SN - 2169-8996 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bülow, Katharina A1 - Hübener, Heike A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Menz, Christoph A1 - Pfeifer, Susanne A1 - Ramthun, Hans A1 - Spekat, Arne A1 - Steger, Christian A1 - Teichmann, Claas A1 - Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten T1 - User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany T2 - Advances in Science and Research N2 - In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De the existing EURO-CORDEX simulations have been systematically complemented by new simulations to derive more robust ranges of possible future climate change. The focus of the project lay on user tailored results, which are required for the planning of measures to adapt to the changing climate. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are calculated from a multi model ensemble for the end of the 21st century. The results for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are compared to the results of the “business as usual” scenario RCP8.5. Averaged over Germany the increase of mean annual temperature and of the number of summer days will be around 3 times higher for RCP8.5 than for RCP2.6. In summer, the increase of dry days could be twice as high in RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-241-2019 SN - 1992-0636 SN - 1992-0628 VL - 16 SP - 241 EP - 249 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Vanderkelen, Inne A1 - Zscheischler, Jakob A1 - Gudmundsson, Lukas A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Rineau, Francois A1 - Neenaerts, Natalie A1 - Vangronsveld, Jaco A1 - Vicca, Sara A1 - Thiery, Wim T1 - A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments T2 - International Journal of Biometeorology N2 - Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change. KW - Regional climate model KW - Climate forcing KW - Controlled environment experiment KW - Global warming KW - Ecosystem response Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01951-8 SN - 0020-7128 SN - 1432-1254 VL - 64 IS - 10 SP - 1709 EP - 1727 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Teichmann, Claas A1 - Keuler, Klaus T1 - Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community T2 - Regional Environmental Change N2 - The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe. KW - EURO-CORDEX KW - CORDEX KW - Climate change KW - Regional climate models KW - Regional climate modelling Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9 SN - 1436-378X N1 - 36 weitere Autorinnen und Autoren VL - 20 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Schaller, Eberhard T1 - Impacts of anthropogenic heat on regional climate patterns T2 - Geophysical Research Letters N2 - [1] Four different simulations of a winter period in Central Europe are carried out to investigate the principle effect of anthropogenic heat release from the highly industrialized and populated Ruhrarea region (Germany) on regional climate conditions. The results reveal a permanent warming due to anthropogenic heat emissions over affected areas ranging from 0.15 K over land area with an additional 2 W m−2 anthropogenic heat flux up to 0.5 K over the Ruhrarea with additional 20 W m−2 anthropogenic heat flux. The temperature effects induced by anthropogenic heat not only depend on the amount of added heat but also on orographical factors. No significant variations are found for precipitation. Y1 - 2004 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019852 VL - 31 IS - 12 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Böhm, Uwe A1 - Kücken, Martin A1 - Hauffe, Detlef A1 - Gerstengarbe, F.-W. A1 - Werner, P. C. A1 - Flechsig, Michael A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried A1 - Nocke, Th. T1 - Reliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate T2 - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences N2 - We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Niño event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling. Y1 - 2004 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-417-2004 VL - 4 IS - 3 SP - 417 EP - 431 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hollweg, Heinz-Dieter A1 - Böhm, Uwe A1 - Fast, Irina A1 - Hennemuth, Barbara A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Keup-Thiel, Elke A1 - Lautenschlager, Michael A1 - Legutke, Stephanie A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Rockel, Burkhardt A1 - Schubert, Martina A1 - Will, Andreas A1 - Woldt, Michael A1 - Wunram, Claudia T1 - Ensemble Simulations over Europe with the Regional Climate Model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 Global Scenarios N2 - Regional climate projections have been performed for Europe with the climate version CLM (version 3.1) of the 'Lokal-Modell' (LM) of the German Meteorological Service. CLM has been forced with output of the ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, which contributed to the fourth climate assessment report (AR4) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of the global model for the IPCC A1B and B1 scenarios as well as the reconstruction of the last four decades of the 20th century (20C3M) for the AR4 are dynamically scaled down to the CLM grid cell size of about 18×18 km2. Climatological parameters including all model variables and additional quantities characterising the climate are available from the World Data Centre for Climate database run by the German climate service group Model and Data. They can be accessed by the general public at no costs with the help of M and D. In particular, the 'Service Group Adaptation' (SGA) has been established at M and D to assist adaptation projects funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) giving advice on the interpretation of the CLM model results. Y1 - 2008 UR - https://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/cerasearch/entry?acronym=MaD_TeReport_No03 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2312/WDCC/MaD_TeReport_No03 PB - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie CY - Hamburg ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kreienkamp, Frank A1 - Keuler, Klaus T1 - Umgang mit der Unsicherheit regionaler Klimaprojektionen – Bias-Korrekturen: Pro und Kontra T2 - Regionale Klimamodelle – Potentiale, Grenzen und Perspektiven Y1 - 2010 UR - https://www.dkn-future-earth.org/imperia/md/content/dkn/regionale_klimamodelle_low.pdf SN - 978-3-9813068-1-1 PB - Nationales Komitee für Global Change Forschung c/o Institut für Weltwirtschaft CY - Kiel ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Will, Andreas A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander T1 - The Climate Local Model - Evaluation Results and Recent Developments N2 - A successful and overall evaluation of the CLM was a prerequisite for conduction of the consortial runs, which will be the data basis of the BMBF research program “Research for the climate protection and protection from climate impact”. We present selected results showing the quality of the model and discuss open questions in regional climate modelling, which may be further addressed using the results of the consortial runs. Y1 - 2006 UR - https://www.dkrz.de/pdfs/downloads/terraflops-2002-2008/Terraflops_No08_2006_11_Mres.pdf?lang=de IS - 8 SP - 2 EP - 3 PB - TerraFLOPS ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Böhm, Uwe A1 - Kücken, Martin A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Hauffe, Detlef A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Rockel, Burkhardt A1 - Will, Andreas T1 - CLM - The Climate Version of LM: Brief Description and Long-Term Applications Y1 - 2006 UR - http://www.cosmo-model.org/content/model/documentation/newsLetters/newsLetter06/cnl6_clm.pdf PB - COSMO Newsletter CY - Offenbach, Germany ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Rechid, Diana A1 - Kotova, Lola A1 - Kotlarski, Sven A1 - Heimann, Dietrich A1 - Zemsch, Maria A1 - Knoche, Richard A1 - Dittmann, Ernst A1 - Walter, Andreas A1 - Berger, Franz A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - Quantifizierung von Ungenauigkeiten regionaler Klima- und Klimaänderungssimulationen (QUIRCS). Zusammenfassung der wesentlichen Ergebnisse eines Projektes des deutschen Klimaforschungsprogramms DEKLIM N2 - Das Projekt QUIRCS (“Quantification of Uncertainties in Regional Climate and Climate-Change Simulations“) ist eines von insgesamt37Verbundforschungsprojekten, die im Rahmen des Deutschen Klimaforschungsprogramms DEKLIM vom BMBF als Beitrag zum Teilbereich „Klima-forschung und Vorhersagbarkeit“ gefördert worden sind [DEKLIM, 2005]. Unter der Koordination des Lehrstuhls Umweltmeteorologie der Brandenburgischen Technischen Universität (BTU) Cottbus waren 6 Institutionen mit insgesamt 13 Mitarbeitern über 4 Jahre an der Durchführung des Projektes beteiligt. Der vorliegende Bericht gibt einen Überblick über die verschiedenen Aufgabenstellungen und fasst die wesentlichen Ergebnisse des Projektes zusammen. Y1 - 2006 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-meteorologie/public/publikationen/quircs_abschlussbericht.pdf ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Rechid, Diana A1 - Kotova, Lola A1 - Kotlarski, Sven A1 - Heimann, Dietrich A1 - Zemsch, Maria A1 - Knoche, Richard A1 - Dittmann, Ernst A1 - Walter, Andreas A1 - Berger, Franz A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - QUIRCS: Quantification of uncertainties in regional climate and climate change simulations. German Climate Research Programme (2001-2006), Final Symposium 2005 N2 - The comparison of multi model runs of the reference period 1979-1993 with different observational data sets for several climate parameters enables the quantification of the model uncertainties in representing present-day climate conditions for Central Europe. The quantification is based on a number of objective distance measures which detect differences in the spatial and temporal structures of the data sets being compared. Additional climate change simulations of two 30-year periods (control and scenario simulation) are performed for the SRES B2 global change scenario. They indicate a severe warming for Germany with values of up to 4 K in summer which is much higher than the quantified uncertainty range of the regional models for this climate parameter. For precipitation in Germany, a weak reduction during the summer months is overcompensated by an increase in winter and fall. However, the simulated changes are smaller than the quantified uncertainty range for the regional models so that in particular a significant reduction of the annual precipitation in Germany cannot be stated on basis of the current simulations for the B2 scenario. Aim of the research in the context of DEKLIM A reliable assessment of possible future climate developments requires an improved understanding of climate and its variability as well as a detailed knowledge of the uncertainties of climate simulations which provide the requested information about the potential degree of future changes. The project QUIRCS focuses on the climate patterns of Central Europe and investigates the quality of currently used regional climate models and regionalization techniques by a model inter-comparison, a substantial model evaluation, additional sensitivity studies and an extensive analysis of climate data. The major scientific aims are • to quantify the uncertainties of regional climate simulations and of observed climate data, • to provide a regional climate change scenario for Europe with a particular focus on Germany, • to assess the reliability of the produced climate change signals with respect to the Collapse. KW - regional climate simulation KW - model evaluation KW - uncertainty KW - climate change KW - climate data Y1 - 2005 UR - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.596.557&rep=rep1&type=pdf PB - DLR CY - Bonn ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Knoche, Hans-Richard A1 - Jacob, Daniela T1 - Möglichkeiten und Grenzen regionaler Klimamodelle T2 - Regionale Klimamodelle – Potentiale, Grenzen und Perspektiven Y1 - 2010 UR - https://www.dkn-future-earth.org/imperia/md/content/dkn/regionale_klimamodelle_low.pdf SN - 978-3-9813068-1-1 PB - Nationales Komitee für Global Change Forschung c/o Institut für Weltwirtschaft CY - Kiel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Schulz, Björn A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank T1 - Modelling the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in agricultural landscapes facing N2 - Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2021: Climate Economics Y1 - 2021 UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10419/242352 PB - ZBW-Leibnitz Information Centre for Economics CY - Kiel ; Hamburg ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Schulz, Björn A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank T1 - Cost-effective conservation in the face of climate change: combining ecological-economic modelling and climate science for the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in agricultural landscapes T2 - MPRA paper Y1 - 2021 UR - https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/105608/ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank T1 - A quantitative approach for the design of robust and cost-effective conservation policies under uncertain climate change: The case of grasshopper conservation in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany T2 - Journal of Environmental Management Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113201 SN - 1095-8630 SN - 0301-4797 VL - 296 ER -