TY - CHAP A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Schaller, Eberhard ED - Bärring, Lars ED - Laprise, Rene T1 - Assessment of quality and uncertainty in regional climate simulations T2 - Extended abstracts of a WMO/WCRP-sponsored Regional-Scale Climate Modelling Workshop, high-resolution climate modelling, assessment, added value and applications, Lund, Sweden, 29 March-2 April 2004 Y1 - 2005 SP - 68 EP - 69 PB - Lund University CY - Lund, Sweden ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Radtke, Kai S. A1 - Keuler, Klaus ED - Rockel, Burkhardt ED - Bärring, Lars ED - Reckermann, Marcus T1 - Climate change in Europe simulated by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM T2 - 2nd International Lund RCM Workshop : 21st Century Challenges in Regional-scale Climate Modelling, Lund University, Sweden, 4-8 May 2008, workshop proceedings Y1 - 2009 SP - 56 EP - 57 PB - International BALTEX Secretariat CY - GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Radtke, Kai S. A1 - Schaller, Eberhard ED - Rockel, Burkhardt ED - Bärring, Lars ED - Reckermann, Marcus T1 - Effect of internal variability on regional climate change projections T2 - 2nd International Lund RCM Workshop : 21st Century Challenges in Regional-scale Climate Modelling, Lund University, Sweden, 4-8 May 2008, workshop proceedings Y1 - 2009 SP - 132 EP - 133 PB - International BALTEX Secretariat CY - GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht ER - TY - GEN A1 - Mohr, Susanna A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Keuler, Klaus T1 - Development and application of a logistic model to estimate the past and future hail potential in Germany T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres N2 - This study investigates to what extent the frequency of hail events in the summer months has changed during the past decades and which changes are expected to occur in the future. To improve the diagnostics of hail events by considering various factors relevant for the formation of hail, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. This statistical model is based on a combination of appropriate meteorological parameters (convective parameter, moisture content, etc.) and synoptic weather types. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index. Validations with independent data sets confirm the reliability of the model results. For Germany, the logistic hail model applied to reanalysis data over the past decades shows a markedly north‐to‐south gradient with most of the potential hail days occurring in the south. Applied to an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations, it is found that the potential for hail events will increase in the future (2021–2050) compared to the past (1971–2000), but only statistically significant in the northwest and south of Germany. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022959 SN - 2169-8996 VL - 120 IS - 9 SP - 3939 EP - 3956 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Brück, Yasemine A1 - Pohle, Ina A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Schaller, Eberhard A1 - Hinz, Christoph T1 - Do mining lakes in the Lusatian Lignite mining region (Eastern Germany) affect regional precipitation patterns? T2 - European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria N2 - Due to the flooding of former open-pit mines, Europe’s largest artificial lake district is created in Eastern Germany. Between 1990 and 2006 more than 80 km² of new lakes have already been formed. These large-scale land cover changes may impact regional meteorological characteristics, therefore it is of interest, whether effects of the mining lakes can already be observed. We especially focus on whether the evaporation from the mining pit lakes leads to a higher precipitation on their lee side. To detect changes in the precipitation patterns, we analysed daily precipitation data (1980-2014) of 25 stations in an area of 10 000 km² widely around the lake district. Under the assumption that the influences of the lakes should be detectable either directly as trends in the observed data or as a deviation from a general measure for precipitation we combined statistical tests and principal component analysis (PCA). We applied pre-whitening Mann-Kendall tests to detect precipitation trends and Mann-Whitney tests to detect differences between split samples (before and after the flooding of most of the lakes). The PCA was applied based on the correlation matrix of daily precipitation at the different stations. As the daily precipitation can sufficiently be explained by the first five principal components, the recombination of these five principal components was used as a general measure of precipitation in the region. By regression trees (random forests) a relation between the eigenvectors of the first five principal components and physiogeographic characteristics of the stations (e.g. altitude) was shown. Both the observed data and the deviations between the measurements and the recombination of the first five principal components showed divergent trends with high spatial variability and also interannual variability, but a pattern consistent with the lee side of the lake could not be detected. Therefore, it has been demonstrated that the emerging lakes had no influence on the daily precipitation at the stations considered in this study. This may be explained by the coarse spatial and also temporal resolution of precipitation measurements. Still, the approach presented here can be applied to (i) detect changes in the spatial pattern of climate variables by a combination of statistical tests and PCA and (ii) to analyse the relationships between such changes and physiogeographic characteristics by regression trees. Y1 - 2016 UR - http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2016/EGU2016-7663.pdf N1 - EGU2016-7663 PB - European Geophysical Society CY - Katlenburg-Lindau ER - TY - GEN A1 - Macias, Diego A1 - Garcia‑Gorriz, Elisa A1 - Dosio, Alessandro A1 - Stips, Adolf A1 - Keuler, Klaus T1 - Obtaining the correct sea surface temperature: Bias correction of regional climate model data for the Mediterranean Sea T2 - Climate Dynamics N2 - Here, the COSMO Climate Limited-area Modelling (CCLM) regional climate model (RCM) is used as external forcing for a Mediterranean basin-scale ocean model based on the general estuarine transport model (GETM). CCLM is forced by different global climate models (GCMs) (MPI and EcEarth) and by the ERA-interim (ERAin) reanalysis. Sea surface temperatures (SST) simulated by the different runs of the ocean model are compared with satellite measurements. As a substantial cold bias in simulated SST is found, a simple bias-correction methodology is applied to the RCM atmospheric variables, namely (1) air temperature (which is usually underestimated for the region by RCMs runs), (2) cloud cover (typically overestimated) and (3) wind intensity (as zonal wind intensity is usually overestimated). The performed analysis identifies wind velocity as the most important variable to correct in order to satisfactorily obtain Mediterranean SST. For many of the RCM realizations significant improvement in the simulated SST are only achieved when wind intensity values were bias-corrected towards observed values. Air temperature and cloud cover had a more marginal importance in reducing the SST bias observed in RCM-forced runs of the ocean model. By comparing the ERAin-driven run and the GCMs driven runs, our analyses suggest that the main source of observed bias is related with the GCMs being used as lateral boundary condition for the RCM realizations. However, a relative simple bias-correction methodology is sufficient to reduce a large part of the induced bias in SST and to improve the vertical water stratification characteristics within the Mediterranean basin that will allow to analyze current and future biogeochemical conditions of the studied basin. KW - Ocean modelling KW - Mediterranean Sea KW - Sea surface temperature KW - Bias correction Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3049-z SN - 0930-7575 SN - 1432-0894 VL - 51 IS - 3 SP - 1095 EP - 1117 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Kotlarski, Sven A1 - Lüthi, Daniel T1 - Regional climate change over Europe in COSMO-CLM: Influence of emission scenario and driving global model T2 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift N2 - The variability of climate change over Europe is analyzed in a new ensemble of eight high-resolution scenario simulations with the dynamically nested regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The simulations are a contribution of the CLM-Community to EURO-CORDEX – the European branch of the international CORDEX initiative. The study documents the influence of two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and four driving global climate models (MPI-ESM-LR, HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH) on the climate change signal of seasonal near-surface air temperature, seasonal precipitation amount and daily precipitation intensity in eight different regions of Europe. Both temperature and precipitation changes show comparable spatial patterns across the ensemble. The warming magnitude, however, strongly depends on the emission scenario and the driving GCM. The analysis demonstrates that the influence of the driving GCM on the temperature change signal can be of comparable magnitude as the influence of the emission scenario. For seasonal precipitation changes the influence of the driving GCM is even more important. All ensemble members show a consistent increase in the frequency of days with intense precipitation while the total number of precipitation days decreases. A further aspect is the comparison between the climate change signals in the regional and the driving global simulations. A critical intensity class is used to quantify the transition from decreasing to increasing precipitation frequencies. The analysis reveals that the variability of frequency changes is smaller in the regional than in the global model ensemble, which can be interpreted as an improved robustness and a possible added value of the regional projections. It is also shown that the regional simulations tend to reduce the seasonal mean temperature change of the driving global simulation. In some seasons and regions the damping of the warming signal can amount to more than 2K. Overall, the analysis reveals a strong influence of comparable magnitude of the choice of the emission scenario and the driving global model on regional climate change signals, and stresses the necessity of a large regional model ensemble for a reliable and robust assessment of regional climate change. KW - Regional climate change KW - COSMO-CLM KW - EURO-CORDEX KW - dynamical downscaling Y1 - 2016 UR - http://www.schweizerbart.de/content/papers/download/85532 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0662 SN - 0941-2948 SN - 1610-1227 VL - 25 IS - 2 SP - 121 EP - 136 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kotlarski, Sven A1 - Szabo, Peter A1 - Herrera, Sixto A1 - Räty, Olle A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Soares, Pedro A1 - Cardoso, Rita M. A1 - Bosshard, Thomas A1 - Pagé, Christian A1 - Boberg, Fredrik A1 - Gutiérrez, José A1 - Isotta, Francesco A1 - Jaczewski, Adam A1 - Kreienkamp, Frank A1 - Liniger, Mark A1 - Lussana, Cristian A1 - Pianko‐Kluczyńska, Krystyna T1 - Observational uncertainty and regional climate model evaluation: A pan-European perspective T2 - International journal of climatology Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5249 SN - 1097-0088 SN - 0196-1748 VL - 39 IS - 9 SP - 3730 EP - 3749 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hübener, Heike A1 - Hoffmann, Peter A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Pfeifer, Susanne A1 - Ramthun, Hans A1 - Spekat, Arne A1 - Steger, Christian A1 - Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten T1 - Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results T2 - Advances in Science and Research Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-261-2017 SN - 1992-0628 SN - 1992-0636 VL - 14 SP - 261 EP - 269 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Knoche, Richard A1 - Keuler, Klaus T1 - Dynamische Regionalisierung T2 - Promet : meteorologische Fortbildung Y1 - 2017 UR - http://www.dwd.de/promet SN - 0340-4552 SN - 2194-5950 IS - 99 SP - 29 EP - 40 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hübener, Heike A1 - Bülow, Katharina A1 - Fooken, Cornelia A1 - Früh, Barbara A1 - Hoffmann, Peter A1 - Höpp, Simona A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Menz, Christoph A1 - Mohr, Viktoria A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Woldt, Michael T1 - ReKliEs-De Ergebnisbericht Y1 - 2017 UR - reklies.hlnug.de/fileadmin/tmpl/reklies/dokumente/ReKliEs-De-Ergebnisbericht.pdf N1 - weitere Autoren PB - Eigenverlag des Hessischen Landesamtes HLNUG CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kjellström, Erik A1 - Nikulin, Grigory A1 - Strandberg, Gustav A1 - Bøssing Christensen, Ole A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Lenderink, Geert A1 - Meijgaard, Erik van A1 - Schär, Christoph A1 - Somot, Samuel T1 - European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2°C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models T2 - Earth System Dynamics Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018 SN - 2190-4987 N1 - viele weitere Autoren IS - 9 SP - 459 EP - 478 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hübener, Heike A1 - Spekat, Arne A1 - Bülow, Katharina A1 - Früh, Barbara A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Menz, Christoph A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Ramthun, Hans T1 - ReKliEs-De Nutzerhandbuch Y1 - 2017 UR - http://reklies.hlnug.de/fileadmin/tmpl/reklies/dokumente/ReKliEs-De-Nutzerhandbuch.pdf U6 - https://doi.org/10.2312/WDCC/ReKliEsDe_Nutzerhandbuch N1 - weitere Autoren PB - World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ CY - Hamburg ER - TY - GEN A1 - Vautard, Robert A1 - Kadygrov, Nikolay A1 - Iles, Carley A1 - Keuler, Klaus T1 - Evaluation of the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble T2 - J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. N2 - The use of regional climate model‐based projections for providing regional climate information in a research and climate service contexts is currently expanding very fast. This has been possible thanks to a considerable effort in developing comprehensive ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) projections, especially for Europe, in the EURO‐CORDEX community (Jacob et al., 2014; Jacob et al., 2020). Currently, EURO‐CORDEX has developed a set of 55 historical and scenario projections (RCP8.5) using 8 driving global climate models (GCMs) and 11 RCMs. This article presents the ensemble including its design. We target the analysis to better characterize the quality of the regional climate models by providing an evaluation of these RCM simulations over a number of classical climate variables and extreme and impact‐oriented indices for the period 1981‐2010. For the main variables, the model simulations generally agree with observations and reanalyses. However, several systematic biases are found as well, with shared responsibilities among RCMs and GCMs: simulations are overall too cold, too wet and too windy compared to available observations or reanalyses. Some simulations show strong systematic biases on temperature, others on precipitation or dynamical variables but none of the models/simulations can be defined as the best or the worst on all criteria. The article aims at supporting a proper use of these simulations within a climate services context. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032344 SN - 2169-8996 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bülow, Katharina A1 - Hübener, Heike A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Menz, Christoph A1 - Pfeifer, Susanne A1 - Ramthun, Hans A1 - Spekat, Arne A1 - Steger, Christian A1 - Teichmann, Claas A1 - Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten T1 - User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany T2 - Advances in Science and Research N2 - In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De the existing EURO-CORDEX simulations have been systematically complemented by new simulations to derive more robust ranges of possible future climate change. The focus of the project lay on user tailored results, which are required for the planning of measures to adapt to the changing climate. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are calculated from a multi model ensemble for the end of the 21st century. The results for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are compared to the results of the “business as usual” scenario RCP8.5. Averaged over Germany the increase of mean annual temperature and of the number of summer days will be around 3 times higher for RCP8.5 than for RCP2.6. In summer, the increase of dry days could be twice as high in RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-241-2019 SN - 1992-0636 SN - 1992-0628 VL - 16 SP - 241 EP - 249 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Vanderkelen, Inne A1 - Zscheischler, Jakob A1 - Gudmundsson, Lukas A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Rineau, Francois A1 - Neenaerts, Natalie A1 - Vangronsveld, Jaco A1 - Vicca, Sara A1 - Thiery, Wim T1 - A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments T2 - International Journal of Biometeorology N2 - Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change. KW - Regional climate model KW - Climate forcing KW - Controlled environment experiment KW - Global warming KW - Ecosystem response Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01951-8 SN - 0020-7128 SN - 1432-1254 VL - 64 IS - 10 SP - 1709 EP - 1727 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Teichmann, Claas A1 - Keuler, Klaus T1 - Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community T2 - Regional Environmental Change N2 - The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe. KW - EURO-CORDEX KW - CORDEX KW - Climate change KW - Regional climate models KW - Regional climate modelling Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9 SN - 1436-378X N1 - 36 weitere Autorinnen und Autoren VL - 20 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Schaller, Eberhard T1 - Impacts of anthropogenic heat on regional climate patterns T2 - Geophysical Research Letters N2 - [1] Four different simulations of a winter period in Central Europe are carried out to investigate the principle effect of anthropogenic heat release from the highly industrialized and populated Ruhrarea region (Germany) on regional climate conditions. The results reveal a permanent warming due to anthropogenic heat emissions over affected areas ranging from 0.15 K over land area with an additional 2 W m−2 anthropogenic heat flux up to 0.5 K over the Ruhrarea with additional 20 W m−2 anthropogenic heat flux. The temperature effects induced by anthropogenic heat not only depend on the amount of added heat but also on orographical factors. No significant variations are found for precipitation. Y1 - 2004 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019852 VL - 31 IS - 12 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Böhm, Uwe A1 - Kücken, Martin A1 - Hauffe, Detlef A1 - Gerstengarbe, F.-W. A1 - Werner, P. C. A1 - Flechsig, Michael A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried A1 - Nocke, Th. T1 - Reliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate T2 - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences N2 - We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Niño event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling. Y1 - 2004 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-417-2004 VL - 4 IS - 3 SP - 417 EP - 431 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hollweg, Heinz-Dieter A1 - Böhm, Uwe A1 - Fast, Irina A1 - Hennemuth, Barbara A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Keup-Thiel, Elke A1 - Lautenschlager, Michael A1 - Legutke, Stephanie A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Rockel, Burkhardt A1 - Schubert, Martina A1 - Will, Andreas A1 - Woldt, Michael A1 - Wunram, Claudia T1 - Ensemble Simulations over Europe with the Regional Climate Model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 Global Scenarios N2 - Regional climate projections have been performed for Europe with the climate version CLM (version 3.1) of the 'Lokal-Modell' (LM) of the German Meteorological Service. CLM has been forced with output of the ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, which contributed to the fourth climate assessment report (AR4) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of the global model for the IPCC A1B and B1 scenarios as well as the reconstruction of the last four decades of the 20th century (20C3M) for the AR4 are dynamically scaled down to the CLM grid cell size of about 18×18 km2. Climatological parameters including all model variables and additional quantities characterising the climate are available from the World Data Centre for Climate database run by the German climate service group Model and Data. They can be accessed by the general public at no costs with the help of M and D. In particular, the 'Service Group Adaptation' (SGA) has been established at M and D to assist adaptation projects funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) giving advice on the interpretation of the CLM model results. Y1 - 2008 UR - https://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/cerasearch/entry?acronym=MaD_TeReport_No03 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2312/WDCC/MaD_TeReport_No03 PB - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie CY - Hamburg ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kreienkamp, Frank A1 - Keuler, Klaus T1 - Umgang mit der Unsicherheit regionaler Klimaprojektionen – Bias-Korrekturen: Pro und Kontra T2 - Regionale Klimamodelle – Potentiale, Grenzen und Perspektiven Y1 - 2010 UR - https://www.dkn-future-earth.org/imperia/md/content/dkn/regionale_klimamodelle_low.pdf SN - 978-3-9813068-1-1 PB - Nationales Komitee für Global Change Forschung c/o Institut für Weltwirtschaft CY - Kiel ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Will, Andreas A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander T1 - The Climate Local Model - Evaluation Results and Recent Developments N2 - A successful and overall evaluation of the CLM was a prerequisite for conduction of the consortial runs, which will be the data basis of the BMBF research program “Research for the climate protection and protection from climate impact”. We present selected results showing the quality of the model and discuss open questions in regional climate modelling, which may be further addressed using the results of the consortial runs. Y1 - 2006 UR - https://www.dkrz.de/pdfs/downloads/terraflops-2002-2008/Terraflops_No08_2006_11_Mres.pdf?lang=de IS - 8 SP - 2 EP - 3 PB - TerraFLOPS ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Böhm, Uwe A1 - Kücken, Martin A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Hauffe, Detlef A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Rockel, Burkhardt A1 - Will, Andreas T1 - CLM - The Climate Version of LM: Brief Description and Long-Term Applications Y1 - 2006 UR - http://www.cosmo-model.org/content/model/documentation/newsLetters/newsLetter06/cnl6_clm.pdf PB - COSMO Newsletter CY - Offenbach, Germany ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Rechid, Diana A1 - Kotova, Lola A1 - Kotlarski, Sven A1 - Heimann, Dietrich A1 - Zemsch, Maria A1 - Knoche, Richard A1 - Dittmann, Ernst A1 - Walter, Andreas A1 - Berger, Franz A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - Quantifizierung von Ungenauigkeiten regionaler Klima- und Klimaänderungssimulationen (QUIRCS). Zusammenfassung der wesentlichen Ergebnisse eines Projektes des deutschen Klimaforschungsprogramms DEKLIM N2 - Das Projekt QUIRCS (“Quantification of Uncertainties in Regional Climate and Climate-Change Simulations“) ist eines von insgesamt37Verbundforschungsprojekten, die im Rahmen des Deutschen Klimaforschungsprogramms DEKLIM vom BMBF als Beitrag zum Teilbereich „Klima-forschung und Vorhersagbarkeit“ gefördert worden sind [DEKLIM, 2005]. Unter der Koordination des Lehrstuhls Umweltmeteorologie der Brandenburgischen Technischen Universität (BTU) Cottbus waren 6 Institutionen mit insgesamt 13 Mitarbeitern über 4 Jahre an der Durchführung des Projektes beteiligt. Der vorliegende Bericht gibt einen Überblick über die verschiedenen Aufgabenstellungen und fasst die wesentlichen Ergebnisse des Projektes zusammen. Y1 - 2006 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-meteorologie/public/publikationen/quircs_abschlussbericht.pdf ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Rechid, Diana A1 - Kotova, Lola A1 - Kotlarski, Sven A1 - Heimann, Dietrich A1 - Zemsch, Maria A1 - Knoche, Richard A1 - Dittmann, Ernst A1 - Walter, Andreas A1 - Berger, Franz A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - QUIRCS: Quantification of uncertainties in regional climate and climate change simulations. German Climate Research Programme (2001-2006), Final Symposium 2005 N2 - The comparison of multi model runs of the reference period 1979-1993 with different observational data sets for several climate parameters enables the quantification of the model uncertainties in representing present-day climate conditions for Central Europe. The quantification is based on a number of objective distance measures which detect differences in the spatial and temporal structures of the data sets being compared. Additional climate change simulations of two 30-year periods (control and scenario simulation) are performed for the SRES B2 global change scenario. They indicate a severe warming for Germany with values of up to 4 K in summer which is much higher than the quantified uncertainty range of the regional models for this climate parameter. For precipitation in Germany, a weak reduction during the summer months is overcompensated by an increase in winter and fall. However, the simulated changes are smaller than the quantified uncertainty range for the regional models so that in particular a significant reduction of the annual precipitation in Germany cannot be stated on basis of the current simulations for the B2 scenario. Aim of the research in the context of DEKLIM A reliable assessment of possible future climate developments requires an improved understanding of climate and its variability as well as a detailed knowledge of the uncertainties of climate simulations which provide the requested information about the potential degree of future changes. The project QUIRCS focuses on the climate patterns of Central Europe and investigates the quality of currently used regional climate models and regionalization techniques by a model inter-comparison, a substantial model evaluation, additional sensitivity studies and an extensive analysis of climate data. The major scientific aims are • to quantify the uncertainties of regional climate simulations and of observed climate data, • to provide a regional climate change scenario for Europe with a particular focus on Germany, • to assess the reliability of the produced climate change signals with respect to the Collapse. KW - regional climate simulation KW - model evaluation KW - uncertainty KW - climate change KW - climate data Y1 - 2005 UR - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.596.557&rep=rep1&type=pdf PB - DLR CY - Bonn ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Knoche, Hans-Richard A1 - Jacob, Daniela T1 - Möglichkeiten und Grenzen regionaler Klimamodelle T2 - Regionale Klimamodelle – Potentiale, Grenzen und Perspektiven Y1 - 2010 UR - https://www.dkn-future-earth.org/imperia/md/content/dkn/regionale_klimamodelle_low.pdf SN - 978-3-9813068-1-1 PB - Nationales Komitee für Global Change Forschung c/o Institut für Weltwirtschaft CY - Kiel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Schulz, Björn A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank T1 - Modelling the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in agricultural landscapes facing N2 - Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2021: Climate Economics Y1 - 2021 UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10419/242352 PB - ZBW-Leibnitz Information Centre for Economics CY - Kiel ; Hamburg ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Schulz, Björn A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank T1 - Cost-effective conservation in the face of climate change: combining ecological-economic modelling and climate science for the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in agricultural landscapes T2 - MPRA paper Y1 - 2021 UR - https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/105608/ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank T1 - A quantitative approach for the design of robust and cost-effective conservation policies under uncertain climate change: The case of grasshopper conservation in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany T2 - Journal of Environmental Management Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113201 SN - 1095-8630 SN - 0301-4797 VL - 296 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kuhn, Ramona A1 - Jensch, Robert A1 - Fischer, Thomas A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Bryant, Isaac Mbir A1 - Martienssen, Marion T1 - Sunlight Degradation of the Aminophosphonate Diethylenetriamine Penta-(Methylenephosphonic Acid) T2 - Solar N2 - Aminophosphonate diethylenetriamine penta(methylenephosphonic acid) (DTPMP) is a scale inhibitor commonly used in several industries. DTPMP is suspected to cause anthropogenic pollution through discharge into the aquatic environment. DTPMP is assumed to be degraded by sunlight radiation. We recently predicted a preliminary degradation pathway of DTPMP applyingUV treatment. Currently, we have not yet evidenced that DTPMP shows the same degradation pattern with natural sunlight. One major reason leads to the fact that the light spectrum emitted by UV lamps does not completely represent the natural sunlight spectrum, and the emitted UVB and UVA irradiation flux is much higher than for solar light. For that reason, the degradation pattern and kinetics might be different between artificial UV treatment and natural sunlight treatment. Here, we investigated whether DTPMP is degradable under natural sunlight radiation, and whether the degradation mechanisms determined through UV treatment are transferable to sunlight. We investigated five different treatment conditions, i.e., DTPMP degradation in direct or diffuse sunlight, in diffuse sunlight with addition of Ca2+ or Mg2+, and in diffuse sunlight with local TW. Our experiment was carried out from March 2021 to October 2021. We performed LC/MS analyses and measured the release of o-PO4 3  . DTPMP was degraded with all five treatment conditions. The fastest DTPMP degradation occurred in direct and diffuse sunlight without addition of bivalent cations. The addition of Ca2+ and Mg2+ resulted in inhibited degradation. Similar effects occurred for sunlight treatment with local TW. We evidenced different degradation mechanisms for DTPMP depending on the presence of alkaline earth metals as we previously proposed for UV-treated DTPMP. However, both degradation mechanisms of DTPMP belong to the same degradation pathway determined with UV treatment. Therefore, we conclude that DTPMP undergoes a similar degradation pathway in sunlight as compared to UV light. KW - Photochemistry Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/solar2020009 SN - 2673-9941 VL - 2 IS - 2 SP - 141 EP - 157 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank T1 - Time to consider the timing of conservation measures: designing cost-effective agri-environment schemes under climate change T2 - MPRA paper Y1 - 2022 UR - https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/113877/ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Schulz, Björn A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank T1 - Climate-ecological-economic modelling for the cost-effective spatiotemporal allocation of conservation measures in cultural landscapes facing climate change T2 - Q Open Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoac004 SN - 2633-9048 VL - 2 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 20 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Leins, Johannes A. T1 - Ökonomie der Klimaanpassung zum Schutz der biologischen Vielfalt ; Postervorstellung : BfN Statuskonferenz "Biodiversität und Klimawandel - Synergien erforschen" in Berlin, 7.12.2023 Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.16540.97923 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Herrmann, Frank A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Wolters, Tim A1 - Bergmann, Sabine A1 - Eisele, Michael A1 - Wendland, Frank T1 - Mit der Modellkette RCP-GCM-RCM-mGROWA projizierte Grundwasserneubildung als Datenbasis für zukünftiges Grundwassermanagement in Nordrhein-Westfalen T2 - Grundwasser N2 - Mit einem Multi-Modell-Ensemble wurde analysiert, wie sich der Klimawandel auf den Grundwasserhaushalt in Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) auswirkt. Hierzu wurden Projektionen der zukünftigen Grundwasserneubildung für insgesamt 36 Mitglieder der Modellkette RCP-GCM-RCM-mGROWA, bestehend aus 3 RCP-Szenarien zukünftiger globaler Erwärmung, 6 globalen und 5 dynamischen regionalen Klimamodellen sowie dem Wasserhaushaltsmodell mGROWA, vorgenommen. Mit dem Ensemble wurden für die hydrogeologischen Großräume NRWs nur teilweise signifikante Änderungen der jährlichen Grundwasserneubildung in den Perioden 2011–2040, 2041–2070 und 2071–2100 projiziert. Ein Robustheitstest mit zwei Kriterien (Übereinstimmung und Signifikanz der Änderungssignale) liefert keine belastbare Begründung dafür, dass sich die Grundwasserneubildung bis 2100 systematisch und signifikant ändern wird. Aus statistischer Perspektive wird deshalb die Schlussfolgerung gezogen, dass in NRW langfristig eine Grundwasserneubildung erwartet werden kann, die sich nicht grundlegend vom Niveau der Periode 1971–2000 unterscheidet. Hydro-meteorologisch befindet sich NRW in einer Übergangszone, in der eine Zunahme der Winterniederschläge die Wirkung der Erwärmung auf die Grundwasserneubildung wahrscheinlich kompensiert. KW - Grundwasserneubildung KW - Nordrhein-Westfalen KW - mGROWA KW - Klimawandel KW - Multi-Modell-Ensemble KW - Robustheit KW - Groundwater recharge KW - North Rhine-Westphalia KW - Climate change impact KW - Multi-model ensemble KW - Robustness Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00767-020-00471-x SN - 1430-483X SN - 1432-1165 VL - 26 IS - 1 SP - 17 EP - 31 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank T1 - Time to consider the timing of conservation measures: Designing cost-effective agri-environment schemes under climate change T2 - Agricultural and Resource Economics Review Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/age.2023.4 SN - 2372-2614 SN - 1068-2805 VL - 52 IS - 2 SP - 231 EP - 249 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gerling, Charlotte A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Leins, Johannes A1 - Schulz, Björn A1 - Sturm, Astrid A1 - Wätzold, Frank T1 - Effektivität und Kosteneffizienz von Artenschutzmaßnahmen unter Klimawandel - das Beispiel der Sumpfschrecke (Stethophyma grossum) in Schleswig-Holstein T2 - Natur und Landschaft Y1 - 2025 SN - 0028-0615-202501 VL - 100. Jahrgang 2025 IS - 1 SP - 2 EP - 8 ER -