TY - GEN A1 - George, Jan Frederick A1 - Werner, Simon A1 - Preuß, Sabine A1 - Winkler, Jenny A1 - Held, Anne A1 - Ragwitz, Mario T1 - The landlord-tenant dilemma: Distributional effects of carbon prices, redistribution and building modernisation policies in the German heating transition T2 - Applied Energy N2 - A carbon price on heating fuels aims to reduce the use of fossil energy in the heating sector. However, it has a greater effect on tenants than on landlords. The heating transition requires adequate building insulation for efficient use of low-temperature technologies. To encourage this particular kind of investment, German landlords are given the option to apply a modernisation levy of up to 8% on top of rents. Similar to carbon pricing, rent increases cause distributional effects. The net effect of these measures on tenants has not been analysed so far. Using a micro-simulation integrating representative empirical data on tenant households in Germany from KOSMA and the detailed building database TABULA, we analyse direct distributional effects of a carbon price (€55/t and €250/t), a per-capita redistribution of carbon price revenues and the modernisation levy (8% and 2% rent increases). The analysis shows that carbon prices and modernisation levies have strong regressive effects. These can be mitigated by the per-capita redistribution. However, the effect on tenants within a given income decile varies largely due to the diversity of buildings. Thus, when designing and evaluating policies, looking at average effects is not sufficient to assess economic impacts for individual households. KW - Horizontal and vertical distributional effects of carbon prices KW - Energy-efficient building modernisation KW - User-investor dilemma KW - Micro-simulation Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120783 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 339 SP - 1 EP - 11 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Ragwitz, Mario A1 - Billerbeck, Anna A1 - Bernath, Christiane A1 - Manz, Pia A1 - Deac, Gerda A1 - Held, Anne A1 - Winkler, Jenny A1 - Kök, Ali T1 - Integrating district heating potentials into European energy system modelling : an assessment of cost advantages of renewable and excess heat T2 - Smart Energy N2 - This paper takes a novel modelling approach by considering high spatial resolution heat generation potentials for district heating and integrating them into a European energy system model. Subsequently, a modelling analysis of an integrated energy system including district heating, electricity and hydrogen supply for 25 EU Member States and the year 2050 is carried out. In contrast to existing approaches, the modelling approach captures the heterogeneous resource availability in district heating. The results show multivalent district heating networks based on a wide range of renewable and excess heat sources used directly or in combination with large-scale heat pumps. The high spatial resolution of the heat generation potentials allows a detailed cost comparison of different possible future technology mixes in district heating. The paper finds that the use of heat pumps, geothermal energy and industrial excess heat offer slight cost advantages for the energy system as a whole. Geothermal heat can also provide cost advantages for district heating generation. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segy.2024.100150 VL - 15 SP - 1 EP - 13 PB - Elsevier ER - TY - GEN A1 - George, Jan Frederick A1 - Held, Anne A1 - Winkler, Jenny A1 - Eichhammer, Wolfgang A1 - Ragwitz, Mario T1 - Unveiling the cost competitiveness of sector coupling technologies : policy impacts on levelised costs of heat pumps and battery electric vehicles in Germany T2 - Smart Energy N2 - Heat pumps and battery electric vehicles play a crucial role in achieving a climate-neutral economy and integrating the Energy Efficiency First Principle into the building and transport sectors, rendering the overall energy system more efficient. To achieve cost competitiveness of these new technologies compared to conventional ones, investments, operating costs and conversion efficiencies are important. We conducted micro-simulations of the development of levelised cost of heat and transport for these sector coupling technologies to assess the direct cost impact of these parameters. With a broad and in-depth analysis of economies of scale, we determine future bandwidths of investment development. Based on this data, we compared implications of two policy scenarios of taxes and levies on final energy prices using a German case study. The first scenario considers recently adjusted taxes and levies: the national emissions trading system in 2021 and the abolishment of the electricity levy to finance renewable energy support in 2022. A counterfactual scenario includes previous framework conditions. Our results show that rising carbon and lower electricity prices already economically favour heat pumps from 2020 onwards. In contrast, taxes and levies do not decisively impact the cost competitiveness of battery electric vehicles, but expected reductions in manufacturing cost do. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segy.2024.100149 SN - 2666-9552 VL - 15 SP - 1 EP - 15 PB - Elsevier BV ER - TY - RPRT A1 - George, Jan Frederick A1 - Marx, Alexander A1 - Held, Anne A1 - Winkler, Jenny A1 - Bekk, Anke A1 - Ragwitz, Mario T1 - Balancing the books: unveiling the direct impact of an integrated energy system model on industries, households and government revenues T2 - Energy, Sustainability and Society N2 - Background The transition towards a sustainable energy system is reshaping the demand for final energy, driven by the diffusion of new end-use technologies. This shift not only impacts consumers’ energy expenses, but also holds implications for the public budget. Building on data from a German energy transition scenario, we analyse the direct impact of energy costs on industries, low-income households, and changes in government revenues from the taxes and levies on final energy carriers. Our analysis considers the impact of current policies and explores a scenario introducing additional excise tax rates to offset potential revenue losses. Results We found that substantial carbon price increases could generate revenues that offset the losses from excise taxes on fossil fuels while enabling the financing of renewable support from the public budget by the end of this decade. Nevertheless, a decline in government revenues from taxes and levies is anticipated after 2030 until the middle of the century due to the declining use of fossil fuels. Maintaining current excise tax revenues during the transition could be achieved by introducing additional excise taxes on fossil fuels and electricity. Lastly, our analysis indicated a continuous decline in household energy expenditures until 2050, whereas energy-intensive industries face adverse impacts due to decarbonisation. Conclusions This research provides valuable insights into the fiscal implications of the energy transition, shedding light on different industrial sectors and households while considering the evolving impact on the public budget. Policymakers may need to consider systemic reforms or alternative financing mechanisms outside the energy system to balance the books. KW - Government revenues and sectoral distribution KW - Carbon prices KW - Levies KW - Real unit energy costs KW - Taxes on final energy KW - Consumer impact KW - Industry decarbonisation Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-024-00450-7 VL - 14 (2024) PB - Springer ER -