TY - GEN A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - van der Weijde, Adriaan H. T1 - Risk aversion and flexibility options in electricity markets T2 - Energy Economics N2 - Investments in electricity transmission and generation capacity must be made despite significant uncertainty about the future developments. The sources of this uncertainty include, among others, the future levels and spatiotemporal distribution of electricity demand, fuel costs and future energy policy. In recent years, these uncertainties have increased due to the ongoing evolution of supply- and demand-side technologies and rapid policy changes designed to encourage a transition to low-carbon energy systems. Because transmission and generation investments have long lead times and are difficult to reverse, they are subject to a considerable – and arguably growing – amount of risk. KW - Flexibility KW - Storage KW - Demand response KW - Generation and transmission KW - expansion KW - Investment KW - Risk aversion KW - Stochastic programming Y1 - 2023 SN - 0140-9883 SN - 1873-6181 VL - 126 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jalbout, Eddy A1 - Genge, Lucien A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - What do we know about green hydrogen supply costs? T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - This paper is set up to answer the question: What do we know about future hydrogen import costs on the European border? Our work focuses on breaking down, structuring and analysing the body of literature on hydrogen supply chains. We provide a comprehensive analysis on (i) What ranges of costs exist in the literature for specific steps of hydrogen supply chains? (ii) Which assumptions show the highest uncertainty? (iii) Related, what assumption seems to have the most substantial effect on the resulting EUR/kgH2 import cost estimate? While we narrow our discussion focus on North Africa and Australia to Europe in 2050, we hope policymakers, research fellows and energy-sector stakeholders around the globe might be interested in our results. KW - Industries KW - Costs KW - Uncertainty KW - Hydrogen KW - Supply chains KW - Europe KW - IEEE Fellows Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921127 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bernecker, Maximilian A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modeling of Extreme Weather Events—Towards Resilient Transmission Expansion Planning T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - In this paper, we endogenously compute worst-case weather events in a transmission system expansion planning problem using the robust optimization approach. Mathematically, we formulate a three-level mixed-integer optimization problem, which we convert to a bi-level problem via the strong duality concept. We solve the problem using a constraint-and-column generation algorithm. We use cardinality-constrained uncertainty sets to model the effects of extreme weather realizations on supply from renewable generators. KW - Adaptation models KW - Renewable energy sources KW - Wind KW - Uncertainty KW - Mathematical models KW - Power systems KW - Planning Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921145 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Schmidt, Matthew A1 - Baringo, Luis A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Adaptive robust optimization for European strategic gas infrastructure planning T2 - Applied Energy N2 - An adaptive robust optimization model for a gas transmission expansion problem. Analysis of Projects of Common Interests’ value in maintaining gas system resilience. Endogenous realizations of cold-winter demand spikes and supply shortages. Publicly available source code for the entire project. KW - Adaptive robust optimization KW - Capacity planning KW - European gas market KW - Uncertainty Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119686 SN - 1872-9118 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 324 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoffmann, Christin A1 - Ziemann, Niklas A1 - Penske, Franziska A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The value of secure electricity supply for increasing acceptance of green hydrogen - First experimental evidence from the virtual reality lab T2 - 19th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 06-08 June 2023, Lappeenranta, Finland N2 - To unlock the high potential of green hydrogen in reaching the ambitious 1.5 °C goal declared by the Paris Agreement, enormous (public) investments are needed. Social acceptance of these investments is required in order to implement hydrogen technologies as fast and efficiently as possible. This study investigates which benefits associated with green hydrogen foster its social acceptance. Using a between-subject design, we implement two different treatments. Both treatments have in common that the participants experience the transformation into a hydrogen economy in a virtual reality scenario. In "Info Security of Supply", we provide the participants information about the benefits of green hydrogen regarding the security of energy supply and climate protection. In Control, we inform them only about the benefits of climate protection. Subsequently, the participants decide about the financial support of a hydrogen project. Our preliminary results show a higher support if the focus is solely on the positive impact of green hydrogen for climate protection. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10161844 SN - 979-8-3503-1258-4 SN - 979-8-3503-2452-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161844 SN - 2165-4093 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Beiter, Philipp A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Guajardo-Fajardo, Victor Juarez A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Bulder, Bernard A1 - Kitzing, Lena T1 - Policy choices and outcomes for the competitive procurement of offshore wind energy globally T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of utilised auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most auction designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes. KW - Renewable energy KW - Tender design KW - Auction database KW - Support scheme KW - Policy analysis KW - Remuneration Mechanism KW - Revenue stabilisation Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113000 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 167 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nguyen, Thi Ngoc A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts? T2 - Applied Energy N2 - In this paper, 180 papers on photovoltaic (PV) output forecasting were reviewed and a database of forecast errors was extracted for statistical analysis. The paper shows that among the forecast models, hybrid models are most likely to become the primary form of PV output forecasting in the future. The use of data processing techniques is positively correlated with the forecast quality, while the lengths of the forecast horizons and out-of-sample test sets have negative effects on the forecast accuracy. The paper also found that the use of data normalization, the wavelet transform, and the inclusion of clear sky index and numerical weather prediction variables are the most effective data processing techniques. Furthermore, the paper found some evidence of “cherry picking” in the reporting of errors and we recommend that the test sets be at least one year long to avoid any distortion in the performance of the models. KW - Solar energy forecasting KW - Photovoltaics forecasting KW - Evaluating forecasts KW - Forecasting practice KW - Model selection KW - Statistical analysis Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119603 SN - 1872-9118 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 323 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Riepin, Iegor T1 - Is Offshore Already Competitive? Analyzing German Offshore Wind Auctions T2 - 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland N2 - Two German offshore wind auctions in 2017 and 2018 saw more than 50% of winning capacity with “zero bids”. The nature of these surprisingly low bids is, however, not yet clear. In our paper, we discuss four hypotheses for possible causes for the auction results: (i) the bids are expected to be profitable due to market development and technological progress, (ii) bids can be perceived as “options to build” that can be realized if projects are profitable, (iii) bids are adjusted to secure grid access, and (iv) other long term reasons not primarily driven by the profitability of the winning bids. Our results suggest that there is evidence for all hypotheses to influence the decision making of auction bidders. In fact, we suggest to see the four hypothesis as cumulative value components, which reveal the true value of winning the auction at “zero cost” in aggregate. KW - renewable energy auction KW - offshore wind Y1 - 2018 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=8469851 SN - 978-1-5386-1488-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469851 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Integrated Electricity and Gas Market Modeling – Effects of Gas Demand Uncertainty T2 - 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland N2 - This paper develops an integrated fundamental investment model which considers both the gas and electricity sector. Furthermore, we adopt the theory of stochastic programming with recourse in the combined model to account for uncertainty in the gas market. This approach enables us to analyze how uncertain gas demand in other sectors affects decisions to invest in electricity generation capacities. We find an overall decrease and a reallocation of investments in gas-fired power plants. We also quantify the expected costs of ignoring uncertainty. KW - electricity market KW - integrated energy system modeling KW - natural gas market KW - stochastic modeling Y1 - 2018 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=8469790 SN - 978-1-5386-1488-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469790 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuzberg, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Der Einfluss der Speicherkraftwerke in der Alpenregion auf die Strompreise in Deutschland - Eine modellgestützte Analyse T2 - 2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001, 21. bis 23. Februar 2001, Wien Y1 - 2001 PB - Institut für Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft CY - Wien ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - How to improve standard load profiles: Updating, regionalization and smart meter data T2 - 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017 Y1 - 2017 SN - 978-1-5090-5499-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2017.7981939 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Electricity Market Equilibria and Intermittent Renewables – A Stochastic Approach T2 - 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017 Y1 - 2017 SN - 978-1-5090-5499-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2017.7981988 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Roads to Transition in German Energy Policy T2 - The road to Paris & multi-level carbon pricing: Getting the incentives right at the global, European & national level Y1 - 2015 UR - http://www.r2b-energy.com/uploads/media/Workshop_Report_Multi-level_Carbon_Pricing.pdf SP - 46 EP - 57 PB - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung CY - Potsdam, Cottbus ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Asymmetries in the German Diesel Retail Market T2 - IEEE Conference Proceeding EEM 2016 N2 - Economists often analyze asymmetric cost passthrough between retail fuel prices and oil prices (‘Rockets and Feathers’) as a proxy for market power. Such symmetries have been analyzed for different countries and time periods. However, few studies have been conducted for the German market. Furthermore, no study has differentiated between company types in this context. In this paper, we analyze market behavior in the German diesel market. We compare the pricing strategies of independent petrol stations with the general diesel market. Independent petrol stations have no connection with popular fuel brands and therefore might decrease market power of dominating brand stations. We use an error correction model for the period from 2011 to 2012 to evaluate the specific market behavior. We conclude that asymmetric pricing behavior is given for independent petrol stations as well as for the whole German market. Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-1-5090-1298-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2016.7521192 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuzberger, M. A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Der Einfluss der Speicherkrafftwerke in der Alpenregion auf die Strompreise in Deutschland T2 - 2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001 Wien Y1 - 2001 PB - Institut für Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft CY - Wien ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Käso, Mathias T1 - Auktionsdesign für Photovoltaikanlagen auf Freiflächen KW - optimales Auktionsdesign KW - Erneuerbare Energien Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/Gutachten_Auktionsdesign_BTU_r2b_2014.pdf PB - r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.] CY - Köln ; Cottbus ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Lienert, Martin T1 - Political Shocks and Efficient Investment in Electricity Markets T2 - European Energy Market (EEM), 2012 9th International Conference on the N2 - This paper presents a fundamental electricity market model capturing many essential features of investments in electricity markets - fuel price developments, investment and generation costs, demand and dynamic effects such as start-up costs and (pump) storage dispatch. The partial equilibrium model minimizes the total costs of the electricity system ensuring demand coverage. The model optimizes both long-run investment as well as short-run dispatch decisions. From the optimal solution, the optimal future generation technology mix and dispatch can be derived. Furthermore, using the concept of shadow prices in mathematical programming, we calculate electricity price predictions. The model is applied to analyze the effect of recent political shocks in German nuclear energy policy on the electricity market and the power plant portfolio. The effect is quantified using the example of a specific combined cycle gas turbine project. We find a significant impact on the future net revenues. Y1 - 2012 SN - 978-1-4673-0834-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6491508 SP - 1 EP - 9 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Wissen, Ralf T1 - Abschätzung von Förderkosten der Bestandsanlagen erneuerbarer Energien bis zum Jahr 2030 Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/EEG-Differenzkosten_Working_Paper_final.pdf PB - Brandenburgische Technische Universität CY - Cottbus ; Senftenberg ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Increasing flexibility of combined heat and power plants with Power-to-Heat T2 - Proceedings, 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lisbon, 19-22 May 2015 Y1 - 2015 SN - 978-1-4673-6692-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2015.7216771 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The Effect of Variable Renewable Energy Sources on the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Prices - A Stylized Full Cost Approach T2 - Proceedings, 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lisbon, 19-22 May 2015 Y1 - 2015 SN - 978-1-4673-6692-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2015.7216772 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Riepin, Iegor T1 - Offshore-Windenergie - subventionsfrei? T2 - e|m|w.Trends : das Innovationsmagazin von ener|gate KW - Offshore-Windenergie KW - Nature Energy KW - Offshore-Windtechnologien Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.emw-online.com/trends/artikel/205364/offshore-windenergie-subventionsfrei SN - 1611-2997 IS - 5 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian T1 - Über eine CO2-Bepreisung zur Sektorenkopplung: Ein neues Marktdesign für die Energiewende N2 - Dieser Impuls stellt Zwischenergebnisse der ESYS Arbeitsgruppe „Strommarktdesign“ vor. Ein Schwerpunkt der Arbeitsgruppe ist ein verbessertes Marktdesign für die Sektorenkopplung, dessen wesentlicher Bestandteil eine wirksame CO2-Bepreisung ist. Aufgrund der aktuellen klimapolitischen Debatten und der damit verbundenen großen Dynamik hat die Arbeitsgruppe dieses Impuls mit besonderem Fokus auf dem CO2-Preis verfasst. Die Gesamtergebnisse werden 2020 in einer ausführlichen Studie veröffentlicht, die auch weitere Aspekte des Strommarktdesigns umfasst. KW - Energiesysteme der Zukunft KW - Energiewende KW - CO2-Bepreisung Y1 - 2019 UR - https://www.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/publikationen/publikationsliste ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Seeliger, Andreas T1 - Unkonventionelle Erdgasvorkommen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Europa T2 - Energie für Deutschland 2013 : Fakten, Perspektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext KW - Fracking Y1 - 2013 UR - www.weltenergierat.de/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/30739_DNK_Energie_final_150dpi.pdf SP - 7 EP - 31 PB - Weltenergierat – Deutschland e.V. CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Lenzen, V. A1 - Lienert, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Effizientes Regime für den Ausbau der EE, Weiterentwicklung des Energy-Only-Marktes und Erhaltung des EU-ETS Y1 - 2013 PB - Frontier Economics [u.a.] CY - Brussels [u.a.] ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Seeliger, Andreas T1 - Der Shale Gas-Boom in den USA und die ökonomischen Auswirkungen auf Deutschland T2 - ifo Schnelldienst Y1 - 2013 SN - 0018-974X VL - 66 IS - 24 SP - 3 EP - 5 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Ökonomische Besonderheiten des Energiemarktes T2 - EnWZ : Zeitschrift für das gesamte Recht der Energiewirtschaft KW - Energiewirtschaft Y1 - 2017 SN - 2195-2841 VL - 6 IS - 7 SP - 243 EP - 247 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sgarciu, Smaranda A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Osorio, Sebastian A1 - Pahle, Michael T1 - Is Germany on track to achieve 2030 climate and energy targets? T2 - List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik N2 - The future development of CO2emissions in the German electricity sector by 2030 is unclear: On the one hand, the amendment to the Climate Protection Act (from August 2021) aims to tighten emission reduction targets in order to promote the path to a decarbonised energy system. On the other hand, the complex interplay between the main instruments for reducing carbon emissions, fuel prices and the current energy shortage as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine is creating pressure for an increase in emissions. In our study, we examine whether Germany is on track to achieve its climate protection targets for 2030 and which measures can increase the likelihood. To do this, we use an energy system model parameterized to reflect the situation in the energy market in 2021, i.e. before Russia's attack on Ukraine. In addition to the quantitative side, we provide a qualitative analysis of the energy market in the light of recent events. We stress the importance of introducing a carbon price floor that can be dynamically changed in response to the development of other market forces and policies. This instrument would institutionalize a more plausible path to decarbonization and provide reassurance to investors. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s41025-023-00255-0 SN - 2364-3943 VL - 49 SP - 93 EP - 107 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoffmann, Christin A1 - Jalbout, Eddy A1 - Villanueva, Monica A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Positive and Negative Externalities from Renewable and Conventional Power Plants in the Backyard: The Value of Participation T2 - SSRN eLibrary N2 - We quantify the net external effects of conventional and renewable electricity generators by analyzing housing prices in their vicinity. Using a Differences-in-Differences approach, we find that (1) wind turbines reduce prices significantly, (2) solar fields have no significant impact, and (3) conventional plants over 1 km away show positive net effects. We set out to explain this result by disentangling the positive local external effects of energy generation, which we measure in terms of local purchasing power and tax revenues. Our results show that the commissioning of conventional power stations results in a significant increase in both purchasing power and business tax income in the vicinity. We thus conclude that significant financial participation of the local public in the development of renewable energy projects, especially wind turbines, could be key to increasing their acceptance and accelerating their expansion. KW - Renewable energy KW - Conventional power plants KW - Hedonic valuation KW - Difference-in-Differences KW - Wind turbines KW - Solar fields KW - Financial participation KW - Acceptance Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4203184 SN - 1556-5068 SP - 1 EP - 33 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Evaluating the German onshore wind auction programme: An analysis based on individual bids T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Auctions are a highly demanded policy instrument for the promotion of renewable energy sources. Their flexible structure makes them adaptable to country-specific conditions and needs. However, their success depends greatly on how those needs are operationalised in the design elements. Disaggregating data from the German onshore wind auction programme into individual projects, we evaluated the contribution of auctions to the achievement of their primary (deployment at competitive prices) and secondary (diversity) objectives and have highlighted design elements that affect the policy's success or failure. We have shown that, in the German case, the auction scheme is unable to promote wind deployment at competitive prices, and that the design elements used to promote the secondary objectives not only fall short at achieving their intended goals, but create incentives for large actors to game the system. KW - Renewable energy KW - Auction KW - Wind KW - Onshore KW - Community energy KW - companies KW - Germany Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113317 SN - 1873-6777 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 172 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Zundel, Stefan A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Price and Employment Effects triggered by a German Coal Phase-Out – A Discourse Analysis T2 - 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) KW - Policy Brief zu Strompreis- und Arbeitsplatzeffekten eines Kohleausstiegs KW - Kohleausstieg KW - Strompreis KW - Arbeitsplatzeffekt Y1 - 2019 SN - 978-1-7281-1257-2 SN - 978-1-7281-1258-9 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2019.8916478 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 PB - IEEE ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoffmann, Christin A1 - Byrukuri Gangadhar, Shanmukha Srinivas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Smells Like Green Energy - Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Impact of Bioenergy Production on Residential Property Values T2 - SSRN eLibrary N2 - Residents' acceptance of bioenergy is a prerequisite for its fast and efficient development but is ambiguously discussed in practice and research. We interpret a causal impact of bioenergy plant commissioning on housing prices in their vicinity as the average net external effects for residents. We utilize bioenergy plant construction data in Germany between 2007 and 2022 as a quasi-experiment with naturally occurring control groups in their vicinity and apply recently improved difference-in-difference estimation procedures to analyze instantaneous and heterogeneous treatment effects. We find a significant and negative impact on housing prices if plants use gaseous biofuel, generate electricity on-site, and are medium-sized. The magnitude of the effect is comparable to those for solar fields. In contrast, we find no impact for small and large bioenergy plants and those that use solid or liquid biofuels. KW - Bioenergy KW - Local acceptance KW - differences-in-differences KW - Hedonic pricing Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4760312 SN - 1556-5068 SP - 1 EP - 26 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bade, Alexander A1 - Käso, Mathias A1 - Lienert, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Schmitz, Christoph A1 - Wissen, Ralf T1 - Ausgestaltung eines Auktionsmodells für EE-Anlagen in Deutschland KW - optimales Auktionsdesign KW - Erneuerbare Energien Y1 - 2015 UR - https://www.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/publikationen/publikationsliste UR - https://www.r2b-energy.com/uploads/media/20151001_r2b_BTU_Auktionsdesign_EE_01.pdf PB - r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.] CY - Köln ; Cottbus ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nikodinoska, Dragana A1 - Käso, Mathias A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations T2 - Applied Energy N2 - Precise renewable energy feed-in forecasts are essential for an effective and efficient integration of renewables into energy systems, and research contributions that help to reduce the uncertainty related to renewables are in high demand. This importance will increase in the future, as renewable energies are the world’s fastest growing electricity generation capacities. Forecast combinations have been empirically proven to outperform individual forecasting models in many disciplines. Our work uses an elastic net method, with cross-validation and rolling window estimation, in the context of renewable energy forecasts. Namely, the forecast combinations are obtained using regional data from Germany for both solar photovoltaic and wind feed-in during the period 2010–2018, with quarter-hourly frequency. The dynamic elastic net estimation, preceded by dynamic data pre-processing, improves forecasting accuracy for both photovoltaic and wind power feed-in forecasts. Moreover, our forecasting framework outperforms benchmarks such as simple average and individual forecasts. Our forecasting framework can be applied widely to estimate renewable power in other countries, systems, or individual power plants. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117983 SN - 1872-9118 VL - 306, Part A ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Ockenfels, Axel ED - Franz, Wolfgang ED - Ramser, Hans-Jürgen ED - Stadler, Manfred T1 - Marktdesign in der Energiewirtschaft T2 - Umwelt und Energie : Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Seminar Ottobeuren Y1 - 2006 SN - 978-3-16-149104-7 SP - 247 EP - 272 PB - Mohr Siebeck CY - Tübingen ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Schulz, Walter T1 - Energiereport IV: Die Entwicklung der Energiemärkte bis zum Jahr 2030 - Energiewirtschaftliche Referenzprognose Y1 - 2005 N1 - weitere Autoren PB - Vulkan Verlag CY - Essen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Kitzing, Lena A1 - Quoilin, Sylvain A1 - Wiggelinkhuizen, Edwin A1 - Bulder, Bernard A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy T2 - Nature Energy Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0661-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0661-2 SN - 2058-7546 VL - 5 IS - 8 SP - 614 EP - 622 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bade, Alexander A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Verteilungsaspekte einer Harmonisierung der europäischen Klimaschutzmaßnahmen T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-016-0170-y SN - 0343-5377 SN - 1866-2765 VL - 40 IS - 1 SP - 33 EP - 40 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bade, Alexander A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Auswirkungen eines ‘Wassertiefenbonus’ bei Ausschreibungen für Windenergieanlagen auf See T2 - ET Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen Y1 - 2016 SN - 0013-743X SN - 0720-6240 VL - 66 IS - 10 SP - 25 EP - 27 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bade, Alexander A1 - Growitsch, Christian A1 - Lienert, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Schmitz, Christoph A1 - Wolf, A. T1 - Aktionsprogramm Klimaschutz 2020: Konsequenzen potenzieller Kraftwerksstilllegungen Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/2014_11_19_r2b_HWWI_Gutachten_BDI_Klimaschutz.pdf PB - r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.] CY - Köln ; Hamburg ; Cottbus ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bade, Alexander A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Warum brauchen wir eine stärkere Harmonisierung der Energiepolitik in der EU? Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/20141022_Thesenpapier_EU_Harmonisierung.pdf PB - r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.] CY - Köln ; Cottbus ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nguyen, Thi Ngoc A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - A Meta-Analysis of Solar Forecasting Based on Skill Score T2 - arXiv N2 - We conduct the first comprehensive meta-analysis of deterministic solar forecasting based on skill score, screening 1,447 papers from Google Scholar and reviewing the full texts of 320 papers for data extraction. A database of 4,687 points was built and analyzed with multivariate adaptive regression spline modelling, partial dependence plots, and linear regression. The marginal impacts on skill score of ten factors were quantified. The analysis shows the non-linearity and complex interaction between variables in the database. Forecast horizon has a central impact and dominates other factors' impacts. Therefore, the analysis of solar forecasts should be done separately for each horizon. Climate zone variables have statistically significant correlation with skill score. Regarding inputs, historical data and spatial temporal information are highly helpful. For intra-day, sky and satellite images show the most importance. For day-ahead, numerical weather predictions and locally measured meteorological data are very efficient. All forecast models were compared. Ensemble-hybrid models achieve the most accurate forecasts for all horizons. Hybrid models show superiority for intra-hour while image-based methods are the most efficient for intra-day forecasts. More training data can enhance skill score. However, over-fitting is observed when there is too much training data (longer than 2000 days). There has been a substantial improvement in solar forecast accuracy, especially in recent years. More improvement is observed for intra-hour and intra-day than day-ahead forecasts. By controlling for the key differences between forecasts, including location variables, our findings can be applied globally. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2208.10536 SP - 1 EP - 55 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jalbout, Eddy A1 - Genge, Lucien A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - H2Europe: an analysis of long-term hydrogen import-potentials from the MENA region T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - Our paper assesses the economic viability of green hydrogen exports from the middle east and north Africa to the EU in the long-term (for the year 2050). For this purpose, we simulate a techno-economic hydrogen supply chain based on generation from renewable energy sources. The chain of production, conversion, and transportation costs, in combination with potentials, yields a merit order of hydrogen supply. The paper focuses on one low-cost option for imports from the middle east and north Africa region. In addition, it provides a classification of additional options. We find that due to proximity, retrofitting and potentially even installing new pipelines from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia could provide nearly half the expected European demand of 60 million tons p.a. by 2050. Based on our assumptions, the costs would be around 2 €/kgH 2 . KW - Renewable energy sources KW - Costs KW - Pipelines KW - Supply chains KW - Green products KW - Europe KW - Hydrogen Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921055 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Sgarciu, Smaranda A1 - Bernecker, Maximilian A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Grok It and Use It: Teaching Energy Systems Modeling T2 - SSRN eLibrary N2 - This article details our experience developing and teaching an “Energy Systems Modeling” course, which sought to introduce graduate-level students to operations research, energy economics, and system modeling using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). In this paper, we focus on (i) the mathematical problems discussed in the course, (ii) the energy-related empirical interpretations of these mathematical problems, and (iii) the best teaching practices (i.e., our experiences regarding how to make the content interesting and accessible for students). KW - Energy Systems KW - Mathematical Programming KW - Optimization KW - Teaching Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4320978 SN - 1556-5068 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Watermeyer, Mira A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Grothe, Oliver A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling T2 - arXiv N2 - The accurate prediction of short-term electricity prices is vital for effective trading strategies, power plant scheduling, profit maximisation and efficient system operation. However, uncertainties in supply and demand make such predictions challenging. We propose a hybrid model that combines a techno-economic energy system model with stochastic models to address this challenge. The techno-economic model in our hybrid approach provides a deep understanding of the market. It captures the underlying factors and their impacts on electricity prices, which is impossible with statistical models alone. The statistical models incorporate non-techno-economic aspects, such as the expectations and speculative behaviour of market participants, through the interpretation of prices. The hybrid model generates both conventional point predictions and probabilistic forecasts, providing a comprehensive understanding of the market landscape. Probabilistic forecasts are particularly valuable because they account for market uncertainty, facilitating informed decision-making and risk management. Our model delivers state-of-the-art results, helping market participants to make informed decisions and operate their systems more efficiently. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2304.09336 SP - 1 EP - 38 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Ockenfels, Axel T1 - Design von Informationsfeedback in Regelenergiemärkten T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft N2 - Auf vielen kontinentaleuropäischen Energiemärkten werden derzeit die Regeln für das Feedback auf Regelenergiemärkten diskutiert: welche Informationen zu vergangenen Auktionen sollen wann veröffentlicht werden? Dieser Artikel beleuchtet Vor- und Nachteile verschiedener Feedbackpolitiken am Beispiel der Schweizer Regelenergiemärkte. Die Veröffentlichung des Grenzleistungspreises ist in der Regel zu empfehlen. Dies gilt jedoch nicht für weitere Informationen (insbesondere extramarginale Gebote). Die optimale Feedbackpolitik hängt allerdings vom jeweiligen Marktdesign und von der Marktstruktur ab KW - Strommärkte KW - Regelenergie KW - Marktdesign Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-011-0062-0 SN - 1866-2765 VL - 35 IS - 4 SP - 249 EP - 256 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Asymmetric Diesel Retail Pricing Strategies: Depending on Brands and Population Densities? T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft KW - Diesel price KW - Error correction model KW - Oil price KW - Retail fuel KW - Rockets and feathers KW - Spatial analysis Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-019-00252-x SN - 0343-5377 SN - 1866-2765 VL - 43 IS - 2 SP - 117 EP - 130 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Engelhorn, Thorsten A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Why is Germany’s energy transition so expensive? Quantifying costs from wind energy decentralisation KW - costs from wind energy KW - germany’s energy transition KW - wind power KW - energy policy KW - support scheme KW - market design KW - cost minimisation KW - efficiency Y1 - 2019 UR - https://www.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/publikationen/publikationsliste PB - Brandenburgische Technische Universität CY - Cottbus ; Senftenberg ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Seasonal Flexibility in the European Natural Gas Market KW - European gas market KW - market modelling KW - seasonality Y1 - 2019 UR - https://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1931/ PB - University of Cambridge, Energy Policy Research Group CY - Cambridge ER - TY - THES A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The Economics of Wholesale Electricity Markets N2 - Die Dissertation analysiert die ökonomischen Zusammenhänge und Wechselwirkungen auf Großhandelsmärkten für Strom. KW - Energy Economics KW - Electricity Price KW - Competitive Benchmarking KW - Optimization Model KW - Market Power Y1 - 2005 PB - Universität CY - Köln ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Neuhoff, Karsten T1 - Modelling Dynamic Constraints in Electricity Markets and the Costs of Uncertain Wind Output Y1 - 2006 UR - https://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/eprg0514.pdf PB - University of Cambridge, Electricity Policy Research Group CY - Cambridge ER -