TY - CHAP A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - How to improve standard load profiles: Updating, regionalization and smart meter data T2 - 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017 Y1 - 2017 SN - 978-1-5090-5499-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2017.7981939 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Electricity Market Equilibria and Intermittent Renewables – A Stochastic Approach T2 - 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017 Y1 - 2017 SN - 978-1-5090-5499-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2017.7981988 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The German Energiewende and its Roll-Out of Renewable Energies: An Economic Perspective T2 - Frontiers in Energy KW - Energiewende KW - Renewable Energies Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-017-0467-5 SN - 2095-1698 VL - 11 IS - 2 SP - 126 EP - 134 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Seeliger, Andreas T1 - Der Shale Gas-Boom in den USA und die ökonomischen Auswirkungen auf Deutschland T2 - ifo Schnelldienst Y1 - 2013 SN - 0018-974X VL - 66 IS - 24 SP - 3 EP - 5 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix ED - Hipp, Christiane ED - Kaelber, Claus ED - Müller, Jens T1 - Energiewirtschaft – Veränderung und Wandel T2 - Kommunikation erneuerbarer Energieversorgung KW - Energiewende Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www.hs-augsburg.de/~jmueller/e-transform/downloads/booklet1.pdf SP - 30 EP - 37 PB - e-transform CY - Augsburg ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Seeliger, Andreas T1 - Unkonventionelle Erdgasvorkommen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Europa T2 - Energie für Deutschland 2013 : Fakten, Perspektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext KW - Fracking Y1 - 2013 UR - www.weltenergierat.de/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/30739_DNK_Energie_final_150dpi.pdf SP - 7 EP - 31 PB - Weltenergierat – Deutschland e.V. CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Lenzen, V. A1 - Lienert, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Effizientes Regime für den Ausbau der EE, Weiterentwicklung des Energy-Only-Marktes und Erhaltung des EU-ETS Y1 - 2013 PB - Frontier Economics [u.a.] CY - Brussels [u.a.] ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Ökonomische Besonderheiten des Energiemarktes T2 - EnWZ : Zeitschrift für das gesamte Recht der Energiewirtschaft KW - Energiewirtschaft Y1 - 2017 SN - 2195-2841 VL - 6 IS - 7 SP - 243 EP - 247 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Equilibrium prices and investment in electricity systems with CO₂-emission trading and high shares of renewable energies T2 - Energy Economics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.07.028 SN - 0140-9883 VL - 86 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuzberg, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Der Einfluss der Speicherkraftwerke in der Alpenregion auf die Strompreise in Deutschland - Eine modellgestützte Analyse T2 - 2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001, 21. bis 23. Februar 2001, Wien Y1 - 2001 PB - Institut für Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft CY - Wien ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Wissen, Ralf T1 - Abschätzung von Förderkosten der Bestandsanlagen erneuerbarer Energien bis zum Jahr 2030 Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/EEG-Differenzkosten_Working_Paper_final.pdf PB - Brandenburgische Technische Universität CY - Cottbus ; Senftenberg ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Neuhoff, Karsten T1 - Modelling Dynamic Constraints in Electricity Markets and the Costs of Uncertain Wind Output Y1 - 2006 UR - https://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/eprg0514.pdf PB - University of Cambridge, Electricity Policy Research Group CY - Cambridge ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Sektorziele verteuern den Klimaschutz und behindern die Sektorenkopplung KW - Energiewennde KW - Emissionshandel KW - Sektorziele Y1 - 2018 UR - https://energiesysteme-zukunft.de/themen/debatte/sektorziele/ N1 - ESYS-Debattenbeitrag zum Thema: Helfen Sektorziele, den Klimaschutz effizient voranzutreiben? PB - acatech – Deutsche Akademie der Technikwissenschaften CY - Berlin ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Integrated Electricity and Gas Market Modeling – Effects of Gas Demand Uncertainty T2 - 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland N2 - This paper develops an integrated fundamental investment model which considers both the gas and electricity sector. Furthermore, we adopt the theory of stochastic programming with recourse in the combined model to account for uncertainty in the gas market. This approach enables us to analyze how uncertain gas demand in other sectors affects decisions to invest in electricity generation capacities. We find an overall decrease and a reallocation of investments in gas-fired power plants. We also quantify the expected costs of ignoring uncertainty. KW - electricity market KW - integrated energy system modeling KW - natural gas market KW - stochastic modeling Y1 - 2018 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=8469790 SN - 978-1-5386-1488-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469790 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Riepin, Iegor T1 - Is Offshore Already Competitive? Analyzing German Offshore Wind Auctions T2 - 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland N2 - Two German offshore wind auctions in 2017 and 2018 saw more than 50% of winning capacity with “zero bids”. The nature of these surprisingly low bids is, however, not yet clear. In our paper, we discuss four hypotheses for possible causes for the auction results: (i) the bids are expected to be profitable due to market development and technological progress, (ii) bids can be perceived as “options to build” that can be realized if projects are profitable, (iii) bids are adjusted to secure grid access, and (iv) other long term reasons not primarily driven by the profitability of the winning bids. Our results suggest that there is evidence for all hypotheses to influence the decision making of auction bidders. In fact, we suggest to see the four hypothesis as cumulative value components, which reveal the true value of winning the auction at “zero cost” in aggregate. KW - renewable energy auction KW - offshore wind Y1 - 2018 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=8469851 SN - 978-1-5386-1488-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469851 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Measuring the cost of renewable energy in Germany T2 - The Electricity Journal N2 - Electricity generation from renewable energy is increasing globally. However, in most electricity systems this growth comes at a price in the form of increased costs. This paper quantifies the costs for renewable energy installations built in Germany between 2000 and 2011. Our analysis sheds light on the ‘Energiewende’ in Germany, which is a front runner in the worldwide renewables rollout. To evaluate cost, benefits and policy instruments, the methodology can also be applied to other countries. KW - energy modelling KW - electricity system KW - renewable energy KW - cost-benefit analysis Y1 - 2018 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2018.04.002 SN - 1040-6190 VL - 31 IS - 4 SP - 29 EP - 33 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Engelhorn, Thorsten A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - How to estimate wind-turbine infeed with incomplete stock data: A general framework with an application to turbine-specific market values in Germany T2 - Energy Economics N2 - This paper analyses market values of wind energy converters at the individual turbine level on a very large scale. Such an analysis is usually precluded by the lack of detailed public data on the stock of wind turbines. We therefore present a general method to estimate incomplete turbine stock data and generate hourly yields of individual turbines based on completed turbine stock data and highly disaggregated hourly wind speed data. On this basis, we calculate hourly infeed and annual market values of up to 25,700 wind turbines in Germany from 2005 to 2015. We show the spread in market values on turbine level, quantify regional differences and discuss the effect of turbine age on market values. We show that turbines in central Germany have, on average, lower market values than turbines in the north, south or far west of Germany. Furthermore, we show that modern turbines reach higher market values than older turbines. We also analyse the drivers of market values, differentiating between infeed-price correlation and standard deviation. KW - renewable energy sources KW - wind energy KW - bottom-up modeling KW - cost minimization KW - market value KW - power curves Y1 - 2018 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.04.022 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/WP_Engelhorn_Muesgens_2017.pdf UR - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX4x3kUQBlk&t=15s SN - 0140-9883 VL - 72 SP - 542 EP - 557 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Asymmetric Diesel Retail Pricing Strategies: Depending on Brands and Population Densities? N2 - Asymmetric cost pass-through between crude oil and retail fuel prices "Rockets and Feathers" has been analysed for different countries and time periods. However, few studies have been conducted for the German market. Furthermore, this study differentiates between company types and regions in this context. We compare price setting behaviour of independent and major brand stations following oil price changes. Furthermore, we differentiate between regions with higher and lower population densities. We establish an error correction model with a novel data set from the years 2011 to 2012. Our results confirm significant differences between price setting behaviour after oil price changes of major brand stations and other stations. KW - diesel price KW - error correc tion model KW - oil price KW - reta il fuel KW - rockets and feathers KW - spatial analysis Y1 - 2018 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/WorkingPaper/2018(1)_Working-Paper_Asymmetric%20Diesel%20Retail%20Pricing%20Strategies_12_2018.pdf PB - Brandenburgische Technische Universität CY - Cottbus ; Senftenberg ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Asymmetric Diesel Retail Pricing Strategies: Depending on Brands and Population Densities? T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft KW - Diesel price KW - Error correction model KW - Oil price KW - Retail fuel KW - Rockets and feathers KW - Spatial analysis Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-019-00252-x SN - 0343-5377 SN - 1866-2765 VL - 43 IS - 2 SP - 117 EP - 130 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Seasonal Flexibility in the European Natural Gas Market KW - European gas market KW - market modelling KW - seasonality Y1 - 2019 UR - https://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1931/ PB - University of Cambridge, Energy Policy Research Group CY - Cambridge ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Engelhorn, Thorsten A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Why is Germany’s energy transition so expensive? Quantifying costs from wind energy decentralisation KW - costs from wind energy KW - germany’s energy transition KW - wind power KW - energy policy KW - support scheme KW - market design KW - cost minimisation KW - efficiency Y1 - 2019 UR - https://www.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/publikationen/publikationsliste PB - Brandenburgische Technische Universität CY - Cottbus ; Senftenberg ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian T1 - Über eine CO2-Bepreisung zur Sektorenkopplung: Ein neues Marktdesign für die Energiewende N2 - Dieser Impuls stellt Zwischenergebnisse der ESYS Arbeitsgruppe „Strommarktdesign“ vor. Ein Schwerpunkt der Arbeitsgruppe ist ein verbessertes Marktdesign für die Sektorenkopplung, dessen wesentlicher Bestandteil eine wirksame CO2-Bepreisung ist. Aufgrund der aktuellen klimapolitischen Debatten und der damit verbundenen großen Dynamik hat die Arbeitsgruppe dieses Impuls mit besonderem Fokus auf dem CO2-Preis verfasst. Die Gesamtergebnisse werden 2020 in einer ausführlichen Studie veröffentlicht, die auch weitere Aspekte des Strommarktdesigns umfasst. KW - Energiesysteme der Zukunft KW - Energiewende KW - CO2-Bepreisung Y1 - 2019 UR - https://www.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/publikationen/publikationsliste ER - TY - GEN A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Zundel, Stefan A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Price and Employment Effects triggered by a German Coal Phase-Out – A Discourse Analysis T2 - 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) KW - Policy Brief zu Strompreis- und Arbeitsplatzeffekten eines Kohleausstiegs KW - Kohleausstieg KW - Strompreis KW - Arbeitsplatzeffekt Y1 - 2019 SN - 978-1-7281-1257-2 SN - 978-1-7281-1258-9 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2019.8916478 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 PB - IEEE ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - A first analysis of the photovoltaic auction program in Germany T2 - 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) KW - photovoltaic auction program KW - Auction KW - Competition KW - Germany KW - Photovoltaics KW - Project completion KW - Renewable energy Y1 - 2019 SN - 978-1-7281-1257-2 SN - 978-1-7281-1256-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2019.8916472 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Kitzing, Lena A1 - Quoilin, Sylvain A1 - Wiggelinkhuizen, Edwin A1 - Bulder, Bernard A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy T2 - Nature Energy Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0661-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0661-2 SN - 2058-7546 VL - 5 IS - 8 SP - 614 EP - 622 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Riepin, Iegor T1 - Offshore-Windenergie - subventionsfrei? T2 - e|m|w.Trends : das Innovationsmagazin von ener|gate KW - Offshore-Windenergie KW - Nature Energy KW - Offshore-Windtechnologien Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.emw-online.com/trends/artikel/205364/offshore-windenergie-subventionsfrei SN - 1611-2997 IS - 5 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The era of ‘negative-subsidy’ offshore wind power has almost arrived KW - offshore wind farms KW - Nature Energy KW - Offshore wind auctions KW - offshore wind Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-era-of-negative-subsidy-offshore-wind-power-has-almost-arrived ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Weyer, Hartmut A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Netzengpässe als Herausforderung für das Stromversorgungssystem. Regelungsfelder, Status quo und Handlungsoptionen KW - Energiesysteme KW - Schriftenreihe Energiesysteme der Zukunft KW - Stromversorgungssystem KW - Netzengpässe KW - erneuerbare Energien Y1 - 2020 UR - https://energiesysteme-zukunft.de/publikationen/analyse/analyse-netzengpaesse SN - 978-3-9820053-2-4 CY - München ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Evaluating the German PV auction program: The secrets of individual bids revealed T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Auctions have become the primary instrument for promoting renewable energy around the world. However, the data published on such auctions are typically limited to aggregated information (e.g., total awarded capacity, average payments). These data constraints hinder the evaluation of realisation rates and other relevant auction dynamics. In this study, we present an algorithm to overcome these data limitations in German renewable energy auction programme by combining publicly available information from four different databases. We apply it to the German solar auction programme and evaluate auctions using quantitative methods. We calculate realisation rates and—using correlation and regression analysis—explore the impact of PV module prices, competition, and project and developer characteristics on project realisation and bid values. Our results confirm that the German auctions were effective. We also found that project realisation took, on average, 1.5 years (with 28% of projects finished late and incurring a financial penalty), nearly half of projects changed location before completion (again, incurring a financial penalty) and small and inexperienced developers could successfully participate in auctions. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421521004845 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112618 SN - 0301-4215 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modelling uncertainty in coupled electricity and gas systems - is it worth the effort? T2 - Applied Energy N2 - The interdependence of electricity and natural gas markets is becoming a major topic in energy research. Integrated energy models are used to assist decision-making for businesses and policymakers addressing challenges of energy transition and climate change. The analysis of complex energy systems requires large-scale models, which are based on extensive databases, intertemporal dynamics and a multitude of decision variables. Integrating such energy system models results in increased system complexity. This complexity poses a challenge for energy modellers to address multiple uncertainties that affect both markets. Stochastic optimisation approaches enable an adequate consideration of uncertainties in investment and operation planning; however, stochastic modelling of integrated large-scale energy systems further scales the level of complexity. In this paper, we combine integrated and stochastic optimisation problems and parametrise our model for European electricity and gas markets. We analyse and compare the impact of uncertain input parameters, such as gas and electricity demand, renewable energy capacities and fuel and CO2 prices, on the quality of the solution obtained in the integrated optimisation problem. Our results quantify the value of encoding uncertainty as a part of a model. While the methodological contribution should be of interest for energy modellers, our findings are relevant for industry experts and stakeholders with an empirical interest in the European energy system. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261920317426?via%3Dihub U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116363 SN - 1872-9118 VL - 285 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Engelhorn, Thorsten A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Why is Germany’s energy transition so expensive? Quantifying costs from wind energy decentralisation T2 - Resource and Energy Economics N2 - This paper discusses the efficiency of promotion schemes for renewable energy sources using the example of onshore wind energy in Germany. We analyse whether the scheme incentivised a cost-minimal capacity build-up by developing a model to derive two cost-minimal benchmark scenarios, which are then compared to the historical capacity build-up between 1995 and 2015. The costs of the two cost-minimising benchmark scenarios are significantly lower than those of the historical build-up. The benchmark cost reduction largely stems from greater efficiency—fewer turbines are being constructed overall but they are being placed at better wind sites so the annual production of wind energy remains unchanged. Hence, aggregated turbine land use is also significantly down in these scenarios. Furthermore, we compare costs for consumers, as protecting consumers from price discrimination of producers is sometimes used to justify higher payments for low-wind sites. However, our results show that the efficiency gain from building at high wind sites outweighs the distributional effect, even from a consumer’s perspective. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928765521000269 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101241 SN - 1873-0221 VL - 65 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Antweiler, Werner A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - On the long-term merit order effect of renewable energies T2 - Energy Economics N2 - The merit order effect describes the lowering of the average wholesale electricity price due to increased capacity of renewable energies. This effect has been observed in many places. While it is beneficial for consumers, it has triggered concerns about the economic viability of legacy plants. Is this merit order effect a permanent feature of high shares of renewable energy, or merely a transitory phase? This article develops a simple theoretical model to shed light on this question. It introduces intermittent renewable energies into a conventional mix of base load and peak load and investigates the effect when base and peak load remain unchanged in the short-term, and when they fully adjust in the long-term. We find that the merit order effect is a temporary phenomenon that is caused by the slow pace of capacity adjustments. We also find that the introduction of renewables has a mild beneficial long-term effect when base load is provided monopolistically, as renewables compete with base load to a limited extent. Consequently, concerns about the adverse consequences for conventional power plants resulting from renewable capacity are only partially justified. While in the short-term the generation portfolio suffers from “stranded assets”, market forces will gradually reduce overcapacity. We also confirm that renewable expansion can be complemented by energy-only markets to incentivize efficient investment in conventional capacity. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321001808?via%3Dihub U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105275 SN - 0140-9883 SN - 1873-6181 VL - 99 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Seasonal flexibility in the European natural gas market T2 - The Energy Journal N2 - This paper focuses on seasonal demand swings in the European natural gas market. We quantify and compare the role of different flexibility options (domestic production, gas storage, and pipeline and LNG imports) to assess European demand fluctuations in monthly resolution. We contribute to the existing literature on seasonal flexibility by addressing the problem with a mathematical gas market optimization model. Our paper provides valuable empirical insights into the decline of gas production in northwestern Europe. Furthermore, we focus on how specific flexibility features differ between pipeline supplies and LNG supplies and between gas imports and storage dispatch. In terms of methodology, we construct a bottom-up market optimization model and publish the complete source code (which is uncommon for gas market models). Furthermore, we propose a new metric—the scaled coefficient of variation—to quantify the importance of supply sources for seasonal flexibility provision. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.iaee.org/energyjournal/article/3779 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.43.1.irie SN - 1944-9089 SN - 0195-6574 VL - 43 IS - 1 SP - 117 EP - 138 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nikodinoska, Dragana A1 - Käso, Mathias A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations T2 - Applied Energy N2 - Precise renewable energy feed-in forecasts are essential for an effective and efficient integration of renewables into energy systems, and research contributions that help to reduce the uncertainty related to renewables are in high demand. This importance will increase in the future, as renewable energies are the world’s fastest growing electricity generation capacities. Forecast combinations have been empirically proven to outperform individual forecasting models in many disciplines. Our work uses an elastic net method, with cross-validation and rolling window estimation, in the context of renewable energy forecasts. Namely, the forecast combinations are obtained using regional data from Germany for both solar photovoltaic and wind feed-in during the period 2010–2018, with quarter-hourly frequency. The dynamic elastic net estimation, preceded by dynamic data pre-processing, improves forecasting accuracy for both photovoltaic and wind power feed-in forecasts. Moreover, our forecasting framework outperforms benchmarks such as simple average and individual forecasts. Our forecasting framework can be applied widely to estimate renewable power in other countries, systems, or individual power plants. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117983 SN - 1872-9118 VL - 306, Part A ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Beiter, Philipp A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Guajardo-Fajardo, Victor Juarez A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Bulder, Bernard A1 - Kitzing, Lena T1 - Policy choices and outcomes for the competitive procurement of offshore wind energy globally T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of utilised auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most auction designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes. KW - Renewable energy KW - Tender design KW - Auction database KW - Support scheme KW - Policy analysis KW - Remuneration Mechanism KW - Revenue stabilisation Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113000 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 167 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nguyen, Thi Ngoc A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts? T2 - Applied Energy N2 - In this paper, 180 papers on photovoltaic (PV) output forecasting were reviewed and a database of forecast errors was extracted for statistical analysis. The paper shows that among the forecast models, hybrid models are most likely to become the primary form of PV output forecasting in the future. The use of data processing techniques is positively correlated with the forecast quality, while the lengths of the forecast horizons and out-of-sample test sets have negative effects on the forecast accuracy. The paper also found that the use of data normalization, the wavelet transform, and the inclusion of clear sky index and numerical weather prediction variables are the most effective data processing techniques. Furthermore, the paper found some evidence of “cherry picking” in the reporting of errors and we recommend that the test sets be at least one year long to avoid any distortion in the performance of the models. KW - Solar energy forecasting KW - Photovoltaics forecasting KW - Evaluating forecasts KW - Forecasting practice KW - Model selection KW - Statistical analysis Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119603 SN - 1872-9118 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 323 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Schmidt, Matthew A1 - Baringo, Luis A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Adaptive robust optimization for European strategic gas infrastructure planning T2 - Applied Energy N2 - An adaptive robust optimization model for a gas transmission expansion problem. Analysis of Projects of Common Interests’ value in maintaining gas system resilience. Endogenous realizations of cold-winter demand spikes and supply shortages. Publicly available source code for the entire project. KW - Adaptive robust optimization KW - Capacity planning KW - European gas market KW - Uncertainty Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119686 SN - 1872-9118 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 324 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jalbout, Eddy A1 - Genge, Lucien A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - What do we know about green hydrogen supply costs? T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - This paper is set up to answer the question: What do we know about future hydrogen import costs on the European border? Our work focuses on breaking down, structuring and analysing the body of literature on hydrogen supply chains. We provide a comprehensive analysis on (i) What ranges of costs exist in the literature for specific steps of hydrogen supply chains? (ii) Which assumptions show the highest uncertainty? (iii) Related, what assumption seems to have the most substantial effect on the resulting EUR/kgH2 import cost estimate? While we narrow our discussion focus on North Africa and Australia to Europe in 2050, we hope policymakers, research fellows and energy-sector stakeholders around the globe might be interested in our results. KW - Industries KW - Costs KW - Uncertainty KW - Hydrogen KW - Supply chains KW - Europe KW - IEEE Fellows Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921127 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bernecker, Maximilian A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modeling of Extreme Weather Events—Towards Resilient Transmission Expansion Planning T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - In this paper, we endogenously compute worst-case weather events in a transmission system expansion planning problem using the robust optimization approach. Mathematically, we formulate a three-level mixed-integer optimization problem, which we convert to a bi-level problem via the strong duality concept. We solve the problem using a constraint-and-column generation algorithm. We use cardinality-constrained uncertainty sets to model the effects of extreme weather realizations on supply from renewable generators. KW - Adaptation models KW - Renewable energy sources KW - Wind KW - Uncertainty KW - Mathematical models KW - Power systems KW - Planning Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921145 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nguyen, Thi Ngoc A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - A Meta-Analysis of Solar Forecasting Based on Skill Score T2 - arXiv N2 - We conduct the first comprehensive meta-analysis of deterministic solar forecasting based on skill score, screening 1,447 papers from Google Scholar and reviewing the full texts of 320 papers for data extraction. A database of 4,687 points was built and analyzed with multivariate adaptive regression spline modelling, partial dependence plots, and linear regression. The marginal impacts on skill score of ten factors were quantified. The analysis shows the non-linearity and complex interaction between variables in the database. Forecast horizon has a central impact and dominates other factors' impacts. Therefore, the analysis of solar forecasts should be done separately for each horizon. Climate zone variables have statistically significant correlation with skill score. Regarding inputs, historical data and spatial temporal information are highly helpful. For intra-day, sky and satellite images show the most importance. For day-ahead, numerical weather predictions and locally measured meteorological data are very efficient. All forecast models were compared. Ensemble-hybrid models achieve the most accurate forecasts for all horizons. Hybrid models show superiority for intra-hour while image-based methods are the most efficient for intra-day forecasts. More training data can enhance skill score. However, over-fitting is observed when there is too much training data (longer than 2000 days). There has been a substantial improvement in solar forecast accuracy, especially in recent years. More improvement is observed for intra-hour and intra-day than day-ahead forecasts. By controlling for the key differences between forecasts, including location variables, our findings can be applied globally. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2208.10536 SP - 1 EP - 55 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jalbout, Eddy A1 - Genge, Lucien A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - H2Europe: an analysis of long-term hydrogen import-potentials from the MENA region T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - Our paper assesses the economic viability of green hydrogen exports from the middle east and north Africa to the EU in the long-term (for the year 2050). For this purpose, we simulate a techno-economic hydrogen supply chain based on generation from renewable energy sources. The chain of production, conversion, and transportation costs, in combination with potentials, yields a merit order of hydrogen supply. The paper focuses on one low-cost option for imports from the middle east and north Africa region. In addition, it provides a classification of additional options. We find that due to proximity, retrofitting and potentially even installing new pipelines from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia could provide nearly half the expected European demand of 60 million tons p.a. by 2050. Based on our assumptions, the costs would be around 2 €/kgH 2 . KW - Renewable energy sources KW - Costs KW - Pipelines KW - Supply chains KW - Green products KW - Europe KW - Hydrogen Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921055 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Radke, Silvian T1 - Warmer Lichtsturm - Umgang mit Erzeugungsspitzen aus PV und Wind : Arbeitspaket 1 T2 - Warmer Lichtsturm - Umgang mit Erzeugungsspitzen aus PV und Wind N2 - Über das Scientific Advisory & Project Board Die vorliegende Kurzstudie wurde von einem Konsortium entwickelt, das sich aus Mitgliedern des 50Hertz Scientific Advisory and Project Boards (SAPB) zusammensetzt. Das SAPB ist ein Kreis von Professorinnen und Professoren, die 50Hertz darin unterstützen, neue Denk- und Lösungsansätze zu entwickeln und Erkenntnisse aus der Forschung – wo angemessen – in die Praxis von 50Hertz zu übernehmen. Disclaimer Im Kontext der durch 50Hertz beauftragten SAPB-Studien forschen die beteiligten Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler frei und ergebnisoffen. Alle durch das Konsortium entwickelten Handlungsempfehlungen werden von 50Hertz eingehend geprüft und diskutiert, letztendlich entsprechen aber nicht alle Positionen denen von 50Hertz. KW - Wind-Einspeisungsspitzen KW - PV-Zubau Y1 - 2024 UR - https://www.50hertz.com/xspProxy/api/staticfiles/50hertz-client/dokumente/unternehmen/partnerschaften/scientific%20advisory%20project%20board/berichte%20warmer%20lichtsturm/sapb_warmer-lichtsturm_langfassung.pdf VL - 2024 SP - 13 EP - 30 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Genge, Lucien T1 - European hydrogen infrastructure planning : insights from the TransHyDE project system analysis T2 - Flagship Project TransHyDE N2 - The white paper was developed by a selected authorship of the TransHyDE Project System Analysis. The contents of the TransHyDE publications are produced in the project independently of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/European%20Hydrogen%20Infrastructure%20Planning.pdf VL - 2024 ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Bade, Alexander T1 - Energy trading and risk management N2 - This book offers important insights into the intricacies of energy trading and risk management to students and professionals in the liberalized electricity and natural gas markets. In its opening chapter, the book delves into fundamental concepts, including price formation on wholesale markets. The various market places and trading products are presented, and the distinguishing characteristics of electricity and natural gas compared to other commodities are emphasised. Moving forward, the next chapter concentrates on portfolio management, offering insights into the trading process through the perspectives of various agents. It begins with proprietary traders and progresses to encompass the portfolio management activities of integrated companies responsible for both generation assets and a retail client base. The book then looks at risk management, explaining the diverse risks that impact the value of energy portfolios inthe market. It places emphasis on credit risk, price risk, quantity risk, and product liquidity risk as the most influential factors and presents effective practices for their management. Furthermore, readers will gain a comprehensive understanding of how to manage quantity risk and its interconnectedness with price risk. Additionally, the book addresses the measurement of product liquidity and its disparities across different energy market products. The book then looks at risk management, explaining the diverse risks that impact the value of energy portfolios inthe market. It places emphasis on credit risk, price risk, quantity risk, and product liquidity risk as the most influential factors and presents effective practices for their management. Furthermore, readers will gain a comprehensive understanding of how to manage quantity risk and its interconnectedness with price risk. Additionally, the book addresses the measurement of product liquidity and its disparities across different energy market products. In summary, this book is an accessible introduction and a concise reference for students and professionals across all fields of energy. KW - Energy Trading KW - Risk Management KW - Electricity KW - Portfolio Management KW - Commodity Trading KW - Options, Futures and Derivatives KW - Power Plant Real Optiononality KW - Power Trading Y1 - 2024 UR - https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-57238-8 SN - 978-3-031-57237-1 SN - 978-3-031-57238-8 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-57238-8 PB - Springer Link CY - Schweiz ET - 1. Auflage ER - TY - GEN A1 - Ben Amor, Souhir A1 - Akkal Devi, Prashanth A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Meta-forecasting for solar power generation: algorithm-based swarm intelligence T2 - 20th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) N2 - Our paper introduces a dynamic meta-forecasting approach that optimizes the weights of several available forecasts using a swarm intelligence algorithm, named Particle Swarm Optimization. This algorithm was chosen for its efficiency and convergence performance in solving optimization problems. We apply the methodology to solar photovoltaic day-ahead forecasts utilizing regional data from Germany. Our sample covers the period between 2019 and 2022 at a quarter-hourly frequency. We provide day-ahead forecasts using a rolling estimation window. Alongside benchmark models, Particle Swarm Optimization predictive accuracy is comparable to state-of-the-art models, particularly a dynamic elastic net benchmark model. However, there are slight differences. The investor can choose between Particle Swarm Optimization for its simple implementation and computational efficiency, or dynamic elastic net models for its parameters explainability. KW - Dynamic KW - Meta-forecast KW - Solar feed-in KW - Swarm intelligence optimization Y1 - 2024 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10608959/keywords#keywords U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM60825.2024.10608959 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 PB - IEEE ER - TY - GEN A1 - Grübler, Lene Marie A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Applying spatial decomposition in energy system models T2 - 20th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) N2 - The European energy transition requires the expansion of renewable generators and consequently, the expansion of grid infrastructure and flexibility options. When modelling complex energy systems, the application of decomposition techniques is reasonable to keep models computationally tractable. Our paper focuses on the efficient optimization of energy systems covering large geographic areas. To accelerate the solving process, we apply a variant of Benders decomposition, which does not only apply temporal but also spatial decomposition. We show that by applying our decomposition approach, the solving time decreases up to 75% compared to the runtime of the equivalent monolithic model solved by a commercial solver and the barrier algorithm. Furthermore, we show that additionally applying spatial decomposition results in time savings compared to an only temporally decomposed approach. KW - Benders decomposition KW - Complexity reduction energy systems modeling KW - Grid expansion planning KW - Spatial decomposition Y1 - 2024 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10608869 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM60825.2024.10608869 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 VL - 2024 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Ben Amor, Souhir A1 - Möbius, Thonas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Bridging an energy system model with an ensemble deep-learning approach for electricity price forecasting T2 - General Economics (econ.GN) N2 - This paper combines a techno-economic energy system model with an econometric model to maximise electricity price forecasting accuracy. The proposed combination model is tested on the German day-ahead wholesale electricity market. Our paper also benchmarks the results against several econometric alternatives. Lastly, we demonstrate the economic value of improved price estimators maximising the revenue from an electric storage resource. The results demonstrate that our integrated model improves overall forecasting accuracy by 18 %, compared to available literature benchmarks. Furthermore, our robustness checks reveal that a) the Ensemble Deep Neural Network model performs best in our dataset and b) adding output from the techno-economic energy systems model as econometric model input improves the performance of all econometric models. The empirical relevance of the forecast improvement is confirmed by the results of the exemplary storage optimisation, in which the integration of the techno-economic energy syst Y1 - 2024 UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.04880 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.04880 VL - 2024 SP - 1 EP - 49 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sgarciu, Smaranda A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Osorio, Sebastian A1 - Pahle, Michael T1 - Is Germany on track to achieve 2030 climate and energy targets? T2 - List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik N2 - The future development of CO2emissions in the German electricity sector by 2030 is unclear: On the one hand, the amendment to the Climate Protection Act (from August 2021) aims to tighten emission reduction targets in order to promote the path to a decarbonised energy system. On the other hand, the complex interplay between the main instruments for reducing carbon emissions, fuel prices and the current energy shortage as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine is creating pressure for an increase in emissions. In our study, we examine whether Germany is on track to achieve its climate protection targets for 2030 and which measures can increase the likelihood. To do this, we use an energy system model parameterized to reflect the situation in the energy market in 2021, i.e. before Russia's attack on Ukraine. In addition to the quantitative side, we provide a qualitative analysis of the energy market in the light of recent events. We stress the importance of introducing a carbon price floor that can be dynamically changed in response to the development of other market forces and policies. This instrument would institutionalize a more plausible path to decarbonization and provide reassurance to investors. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s41025-023-00255-0 SN - 2364-3943 VL - 49 SP - 93 EP - 107 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoffmann, Christin A1 - Byrukuri Gangadhar, Shanmukha Srinivas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Smells Like Green Energy - Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Impact of Bioenergy Production on Residential Property Values T2 - SSRN eLibrary N2 - Residents' acceptance of bioenergy is a prerequisite for its fast and efficient development but is ambiguously discussed in practice and research. We interpret a causal impact of bioenergy plant commissioning on housing prices in their vicinity as the average net external effects for residents. We utilize bioenergy plant construction data in Germany between 2007 and 2022 as a quasi-experiment with naturally occurring control groups in their vicinity and apply recently improved difference-in-difference estimation procedures to analyze instantaneous and heterogeneous treatment effects. We find a significant and negative impact on housing prices if plants use gaseous biofuel, generate electricity on-site, and are medium-sized. The magnitude of the effect is comparable to those for solar fields. In contrast, we find no impact for small and large bioenergy plants and those that use solid or liquid biofuels. KW - Bioenergy KW - Local acceptance KW - differences-in-differences KW - Hedonic pricing Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4760312 SN - 1556-5068 SP - 1 EP - 26 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sgarciu, Smaranda A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - How CO2 prices accelerate decarbonisation – The case of coal-fired generation in Germany T2 - Energy Policy N2 - This paper analyses the potential impact of the world's two main coal phase-out instruments: 1) direct regulatory intervention restricting the operation of existing coal-fired generation capacity and prohibiting investment in new capacity and 2) market-based CO2-pricing instruments that make emission-intensive coal-fired generation less competitive. We quantify these instruments' potential effects in the empirical setting of Germany, where both instruments are employed concurrently. However, this paper's approach and methodology can be applied in any jurisdiction or energy system worldwide. Our paper provides quantitative results with a pan-European partial-equilibrium electricity system model. The model applies an innovative three-step approach. Step 1 solves an investment and dispatch problem with reduced technical and temporal complexity for European countries. Step 2 computes the dispatch problem at a bihourly resolution and step 3 solves the investment and dispatch problem for Germany with increased technical complexity. Our results confirm that both a regulated phase-out as well as a price on CO2 emissions can reduce the amount of coal-fired generation in an electricity system. If CO2 prices remain at current levels, coal-fired power plants leave the market significantly before the regulated phase-out date, reducing demand for employees in the Lusatian lignite industry. Regions and federal governments should take this finding into account when planning and preparing for structural change. KW - Kohleausstieg KW - Coal phase-out KW - CO2 price KW - Employment KW - Decarbonisation KW - Energy systems modelling Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113375 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 173 ER -