TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Lienert, Martin T1 - Voraussetzungen einer optimalen Integration erneuerbarer Energien in das Stromversorgungssystem KW - Voraussetzungen einer optimalen erneuerbarer Energie, Stromversorgungssystem Y1 - 2010 UR - http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Navigation/Service/publikationen,did=349366.html CY - Köln [u.a.] ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Lienert, Martin T1 - Förderung der Direktvermarktung und der bedarfsgerechten Einspeisung von Strom aus Erneuerbaren Energien KW - Direktvermarktung KW - Einspeisung Strom KW - Erneuerbare Energien Y1 - 2010 CY - Köln [u.a.] ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Lienert, Martin A1 - Hildebrandt, Elmar T1 - Ökonomische Auswirkungen einer Laufzeitverlängerung deutscher Kernkraftwerke KW - Oekonomische Auswirkungen KW - Laufzeitverlängerung KW - Kernkraftwerk Y1 - 2010 PB - BDI CY - Köln [u.a.] ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Bade, Alexander T1 - Optimierungsstrategien im Portfoliomanagement von Gasversorgungsunternehmen T2 - GWF : das Gas- und Wasserfach KW - Optimierungsstrategien KW - Portfoliomanagement KW - Gasversorgungsunternehmen Y1 - 2010 SN - 0016-4909 VL - 151 IS - 11 SP - 732 EP - 736 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Peek, Markus T1 - Sind Kapazitätsmärkte in Deutschland erforderlich? - Eine kritische Analyse vor dem Hintergrund der ökonomischen Theorie T2 - Zeitschrift für neues Energierecht KW - Kapazitaetsmaerkte KW - Deutschland KW - ökonomischen Theorie Y1 - 2011 SN - 1434-3339 VL - 15 IS - 6 SP - 576 EP - 583 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Steinhaus, Burkhard T1 - Portfoliomanagement: Optimale Energiebeschaffung unter Beruecksichtigung von Risiken KW - Portfoliomanagement KW - Energiebeschaffung Y1 - 2010 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Wissen, Ralf T1 - Was kosten die EEG-Bestandsanlagen bis 2030? T2 - Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen : ET Y1 - 2014 VL - 64 IS - 9 SP - 60 EP - 63 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Peek, Markus T1 - Economics and Design of Balancing Power Markets in Germany T2 - International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems Y1 - 2014 SN - 2070-3767 IS - 55 SP - 392 EP - 401 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Grothe, Oliver T1 - The Influence of Spatial Effects on Wind Power Revenues under Direct Marketing Rules T2 - Energy Policy N2 - In many countries, investments in renewable technologies have been accelerated by fixed feed-in tariffs for electricity from renewable energy sources (RES). While fixed tariffs accomplish this purpose, they lack incentives to align the RES production with price signals. Today, the intermittency of most RES increases the volatility of electricity prices and makes balancing supply and demand more complicated. Therefore, support schemes for RES have to be modified. Recently, Germany launched a scheme which gives wind power operators the monthly choice to either receive a fixed tariff or to risk a – subsidized – access to the wholesale electricity market. This paper quantifies revenues of wind turbines under this new subsidy and analyzes whether, when and where producers may profit. We find that the position of the wind turbine within the country significantly influences revenues in terms of EUR/MWh. The results are important for wind farm operators deciding whether electricity should be sold in the fixed feed-in tariff or in the wholesale market. However, no location is persistently, i.e., in every calendar month of the year, above the average. This limits the effect of the new subsidy scheme on investment locations and long term improvements in the aggregated wind feed-in profile. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.004 SN - 0301-4215 IS - 58 SP - 237 EP - 247 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Ockenfels, Axel A1 - Peek, Markus T1 - Balancing Power Markets in Germany: Timing Matters T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft N2 - This paper analyzes timing issues on the German balancing power market. We focus the analysis on the length of the bidding period, i.e. the length of the time period a supplier has to provide balancing power capacities, and the question of how far before the beginning of a bidding period the auction should be carried out. We show that different load levels require different plants for the optimal provision of balancing power. In a longer bidding period, the power plants that have the lowest average cost in the bidding period are unlikely to be efficient in all hours of the bidding period. Hence, shortening bidding periods can increase efficiency. Furthermore, we show that an early commitment on a power plant’s mode of operation (when uncertainty about resulting spot prices is still relatively high) also reduces efficiency. This suggests that the auction should be held relatively close to the beginning of the bidding period. Furthermore, we discuss some advantages of a liquid real time market. KW - Balancing Power Markets KW - Germany Y1 - 2012 SN - 1866-2765 SN - 0343-5377 VL - 36 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 7 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Seeliger, Andreas T1 - Fracking in Deutschland und Europa – Hype oder Chance T2 - ifo Schnelldienst N2 - Welche Chancen und Risiken ergeben sich aus der Schiefergasförderung in Europa und speziell in Deutschland? Y1 - 2013 UR - http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/SD-24-2013.pdf VL - 66 IS - 24 SP - 3 EP - 10 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Peek, Markus A1 - Schulz, W. ED - Haubrich, Hans-Jürgen T1 - Investigation on the Demand for Transmission Capacity - Investigation for France-Italy based on a Generation Dispatch Model T2 - Analysis of Electricity Network Capacities and Identification of Congestion Y1 - 2001 PB - IAEW CY - Aachen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Grothe, Oliver A1 - Müller, Christoph A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modellierung von Energiepreisrisiken durch Bindefristen bei öffentlichen Ausschreibungen T2 - Zeitschrift für Energie, Markt und Wettbewerb Y1 - 2006 IS - 6 SP - 59 EP - 62 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Growitsch, Christian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Die Liberalisierung des deutschen Strommarktes - ein Erfolgsmodell? T2 - Wirtschaft im Wandel Y1 - 2005 SN - 0947-3211 IS - 12 SP - 383 EP - 387 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Quantifying Market power in the German Wholesale Electricity Market Using a Dynamic Multi-Regional Dispatch Model T2 - Journal of Industrial Economics N2 - This paper quantifies the degree of market power in the German wholesale electricity market. A dispatch model simulates competitive marginal costs. In addition to common input factors like plant capacities, fuel prices and load structures, the model also incorporates international power exchange and dynamic effects like start-up costs and hydro storage plant dispatch. The simulated prices are subsequently used as a benchmark for observed electricity prices. The analysis reveals significant market power in the German electricity market, mainly exhibited during peak periods. Producer surplus is also increased significantly due to strategic behavior. Y1 - 2006 UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-6451 SN - 1467-6451 VL - 54 IS - 4 SP - 471 EP - 498 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bartels, Michael A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Do Technology Specific CO2-Allocations Distort Investments? T2 - Securing energy in insecure times, 29th IAEE International Conference, 7-10 June 2006 in Potsdam Y1 - 2006 SP - 367 EP - 374 PB - IAEE CY - Cleveland ER - TY - GEN A1 - Growitsch, Christian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The Economics of Restructuring the German Electricity Sector T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft N2 - The debate about the development of German electricity prices after the liberalization of energy markets in 1998 raises the question of failures in market restructuring. However, a general statement would be misleading for two main reasons. Firstly, the price development, analyzed for the exemplary case of household prices, shows significant differences among the stages of the value chain. Secondly, the underlying cost structure might have changed from 1998 to 2004. While such effects can be expected to level out over time, they can distort the comparison of a small period of observation. For these reasons, we analyzed the different price components at a detailed level, finding a considerable price reduction of about 32% in generation and a much lower reduction of 13% in transmission and distribution tariffs. These decreases have been mostly compensated by a significant increase in taxes and subsidies (+56%). Y1 - 2005 SN - 0343-5377 VL - 29 IS - 3 SP - 221 EP - 230 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Peichert, Patrick A1 - Perner, Jens A1 - Riechmann, Christoph A1 - Wissen, Ralf T1 - Emissionshandel oder Förderung Erneuerbarer in Europa: Wer sollte langfristig das Steuer übernehmen? T2 - ET Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen Y1 - 2013 SN - 0720-6240 IS - 9 SP - 8 EP - 12 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Seeliger, Andreas T1 - Nicht-konventionelle Erdgasvorkommen in den USA und ihre Auswirkungen auf Europa T2 - Energie für Deutschland 2013 : Fakten, Perspektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext Y1 - 2013 SP - 1 EP - 31 PB - Weltenergierat – Deutschland e.V. CY - Berlin ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Bartels, Michael T1 - Is a Cap-and-Trade System always efficient? The Case of New Entrants in the Emission Trading System of the EU T2 - Journal of Energy Engineering Y1 - 2008 SN - 0733-9402 VL - 134 IS - 2 SP - 33 EP - 39 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kuntz, Ludwig A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modelling Start-Up Costs of Multiple Technologies in Electricity Markets T2 - Mathematical Methods of Operations Research KW - Electricity markets Energy modeling Y1 - 2007 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00186-007-0148-y SN - 1432-2994 VL - 66 IS - 1 SP - 21 EP - 32 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Käso, Mathias A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Grothe, Oliver T1 - Dynamic Forecast Combinations of Improved Individual Forecasts for the Prediction of Wind Energy T2 - IEEE Conference Proceedings EEM 2016 N2 - We study the prediction performance of different improved individual wind energy forecasts in various static and dynamic ombination processes. To this end, we develop a combined error minimization model (CEMM) based on nonlinear functions. This approach reflects the nonlinear nature of weather and especially of wind energy prediction problems. Based on the model, we construct significantly improved individual forecasts. The corresponding time dependent model coefficients are determined by dynamic OLS (ordinary least squares) regression and Kalman filter methods. The former method shows a slightly better performance than the Kalman filter based approaches. Further improvements can be achieved by a combination of these improved wind energy forecasts. In this case, the combination coefficients are calculated from a static and two dynamic OLS regressions. The resulting forecasts are characterized by a further increased prediction accuracy compared to the combination of the uncorrected forecast data and can outperform a given benchmark. Y1 - 2016 UR - http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7521228/ SN - 978-1-5090-1298-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2016.7521228 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Equilibrium prices and investment in electricity systems with CO₂-emission trading and high shares of renewable energies T2 - Energy Economics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.07.028 SN - 0140-9883 VL - 86 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The German Energiewende and its Roll-Out of Renewable Energies: An Economic Perspective T2 - Frontiers in Energy KW - Energiewende KW - Renewable Energies Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-017-0467-5 SN - 2095-1698 VL - 11 IS - 2 SP - 126 EP - 134 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix ED - Hipp, Christiane ED - Kaelber, Claus ED - Müller, Jens T1 - Energiewirtschaft – Veränderung und Wandel T2 - Kommunikation erneuerbarer Energieversorgung KW - Energiewende Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www.hs-augsburg.de/~jmueller/e-transform/downloads/booklet1.pdf SP - 30 EP - 37 PB - e-transform CY - Augsburg ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Sektorziele verteuern den Klimaschutz und behindern die Sektorenkopplung KW - Energiewennde KW - Emissionshandel KW - Sektorziele Y1 - 2018 UR - https://energiesysteme-zukunft.de/themen/debatte/sektorziele/ N1 - ESYS-Debattenbeitrag zum Thema: Helfen Sektorziele, den Klimaschutz effizient voranzutreiben? PB - acatech – Deutsche Akademie der Technikwissenschaften CY - Berlin ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Measuring the cost of renewable energy in Germany T2 - The Electricity Journal N2 - Electricity generation from renewable energy is increasing globally. However, in most electricity systems this growth comes at a price in the form of increased costs. This paper quantifies the costs for renewable energy installations built in Germany between 2000 and 2011. Our analysis sheds light on the ‘Energiewende’ in Germany, which is a front runner in the worldwide renewables rollout. To evaluate cost, benefits and policy instruments, the methodology can also be applied to other countries. KW - energy modelling KW - electricity system KW - renewable energy KW - cost-benefit analysis Y1 - 2018 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2018.04.002 SN - 1040-6190 VL - 31 IS - 4 SP - 29 EP - 33 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Engelhorn, Thorsten A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - How to estimate wind-turbine infeed with incomplete stock data: A general framework with an application to turbine-specific market values in Germany T2 - Energy Economics N2 - This paper analyses market values of wind energy converters at the individual turbine level on a very large scale. Such an analysis is usually precluded by the lack of detailed public data on the stock of wind turbines. We therefore present a general method to estimate incomplete turbine stock data and generate hourly yields of individual turbines based on completed turbine stock data and highly disaggregated hourly wind speed data. On this basis, we calculate hourly infeed and annual market values of up to 25,700 wind turbines in Germany from 2005 to 2015. We show the spread in market values on turbine level, quantify regional differences and discuss the effect of turbine age on market values. We show that turbines in central Germany have, on average, lower market values than turbines in the north, south or far west of Germany. Furthermore, we show that modern turbines reach higher market values than older turbines. We also analyse the drivers of market values, differentiating between infeed-price correlation and standard deviation. KW - renewable energy sources KW - wind energy KW - bottom-up modeling KW - cost minimization KW - market value KW - power curves Y1 - 2018 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.04.022 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/WP_Engelhorn_Muesgens_2017.pdf UR - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX4x3kUQBlk&t=15s SN - 0140-9883 VL - 72 SP - 542 EP - 557 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Asymmetric Diesel Retail Pricing Strategies: Depending on Brands and Population Densities? N2 - Asymmetric cost pass-through between crude oil and retail fuel prices "Rockets and Feathers" has been analysed for different countries and time periods. However, few studies have been conducted for the German market. Furthermore, this study differentiates between company types and regions in this context. We compare price setting behaviour of independent and major brand stations following oil price changes. Furthermore, we differentiate between regions with higher and lower population densities. We establish an error correction model with a novel data set from the years 2011 to 2012. Our results confirm significant differences between price setting behaviour after oil price changes of major brand stations and other stations. KW - diesel price KW - error correc tion model KW - oil price KW - reta il fuel KW - rockets and feathers KW - spatial analysis Y1 - 2018 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/WorkingPaper/2018(1)_Working-Paper_Asymmetric%20Diesel%20Retail%20Pricing%20Strategies_12_2018.pdf PB - Brandenburgische Technische Universität CY - Cottbus ; Senftenberg ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - A first analysis of the photovoltaic auction program in Germany T2 - 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) KW - photovoltaic auction program KW - Auction KW - Competition KW - Germany KW - Photovoltaics KW - Project completion KW - Renewable energy Y1 - 2019 SN - 978-1-7281-1257-2 SN - 978-1-7281-1256-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2019.8916472 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Weyer, Hartmut A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Netzengpässe als Herausforderung für das Stromversorgungssystem. Regelungsfelder, Status quo und Handlungsoptionen KW - Energiesysteme KW - Schriftenreihe Energiesysteme der Zukunft KW - Stromversorgungssystem KW - Netzengpässe KW - erneuerbare Energien Y1 - 2020 UR - https://energiesysteme-zukunft.de/publikationen/analyse/analyse-netzengpaesse SN - 978-3-9820053-2-4 CY - München ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The era of ‘negative-subsidy’ offshore wind power has almost arrived KW - offshore wind farms KW - Nature Energy KW - Offshore wind auctions KW - offshore wind Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-era-of-negative-subsidy-offshore-wind-power-has-almost-arrived ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Evaluating the German PV auction program: The secrets of individual bids revealed T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Auctions have become the primary instrument for promoting renewable energy around the world. However, the data published on such auctions are typically limited to aggregated information (e.g., total awarded capacity, average payments). These data constraints hinder the evaluation of realisation rates and other relevant auction dynamics. In this study, we present an algorithm to overcome these data limitations in German renewable energy auction programme by combining publicly available information from four different databases. We apply it to the German solar auction programme and evaluate auctions using quantitative methods. We calculate realisation rates and—using correlation and regression analysis—explore the impact of PV module prices, competition, and project and developer characteristics on project realisation and bid values. Our results confirm that the German auctions were effective. We also found that project realisation took, on average, 1.5 years (with 28% of projects finished late and incurring a financial penalty), nearly half of projects changed location before completion (again, incurring a financial penalty) and small and inexperienced developers could successfully participate in auctions. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421521004845 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112618 SN - 0301-4215 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modelling uncertainty in coupled electricity and gas systems - is it worth the effort? T2 - Applied Energy N2 - The interdependence of electricity and natural gas markets is becoming a major topic in energy research. Integrated energy models are used to assist decision-making for businesses and policymakers addressing challenges of energy transition and climate change. The analysis of complex energy systems requires large-scale models, which are based on extensive databases, intertemporal dynamics and a multitude of decision variables. Integrating such energy system models results in increased system complexity. This complexity poses a challenge for energy modellers to address multiple uncertainties that affect both markets. Stochastic optimisation approaches enable an adequate consideration of uncertainties in investment and operation planning; however, stochastic modelling of integrated large-scale energy systems further scales the level of complexity. In this paper, we combine integrated and stochastic optimisation problems and parametrise our model for European electricity and gas markets. We analyse and compare the impact of uncertain input parameters, such as gas and electricity demand, renewable energy capacities and fuel and CO2 prices, on the quality of the solution obtained in the integrated optimisation problem. Our results quantify the value of encoding uncertainty as a part of a model. While the methodological contribution should be of interest for energy modellers, our findings are relevant for industry experts and stakeholders with an empirical interest in the European energy system. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261920317426?via%3Dihub U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116363 SN - 1872-9118 VL - 285 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Engelhorn, Thorsten A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Why is Germany’s energy transition so expensive? Quantifying costs from wind energy decentralisation T2 - Resource and Energy Economics N2 - This paper discusses the efficiency of promotion schemes for renewable energy sources using the example of onshore wind energy in Germany. We analyse whether the scheme incentivised a cost-minimal capacity build-up by developing a model to derive two cost-minimal benchmark scenarios, which are then compared to the historical capacity build-up between 1995 and 2015. The costs of the two cost-minimising benchmark scenarios are significantly lower than those of the historical build-up. The benchmark cost reduction largely stems from greater efficiency—fewer turbines are being constructed overall but they are being placed at better wind sites so the annual production of wind energy remains unchanged. Hence, aggregated turbine land use is also significantly down in these scenarios. Furthermore, we compare costs for consumers, as protecting consumers from price discrimination of producers is sometimes used to justify higher payments for low-wind sites. However, our results show that the efficiency gain from building at high wind sites outweighs the distributional effect, even from a consumer’s perspective. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928765521000269 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101241 SN - 1873-0221 VL - 65 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Antweiler, Werner A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - On the long-term merit order effect of renewable energies T2 - Energy Economics N2 - The merit order effect describes the lowering of the average wholesale electricity price due to increased capacity of renewable energies. This effect has been observed in many places. While it is beneficial for consumers, it has triggered concerns about the economic viability of legacy plants. Is this merit order effect a permanent feature of high shares of renewable energy, or merely a transitory phase? This article develops a simple theoretical model to shed light on this question. It introduces intermittent renewable energies into a conventional mix of base load and peak load and investigates the effect when base and peak load remain unchanged in the short-term, and when they fully adjust in the long-term. We find that the merit order effect is a temporary phenomenon that is caused by the slow pace of capacity adjustments. We also find that the introduction of renewables has a mild beneficial long-term effect when base load is provided monopolistically, as renewables compete with base load to a limited extent. Consequently, concerns about the adverse consequences for conventional power plants resulting from renewable capacity are only partially justified. While in the short-term the generation portfolio suffers from “stranded assets”, market forces will gradually reduce overcapacity. We also confirm that renewable expansion can be complemented by energy-only markets to incentivize efficient investment in conventional capacity. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321001808?via%3Dihub U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105275 SN - 0140-9883 SN - 1873-6181 VL - 99 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Seasonal flexibility in the European natural gas market T2 - The Energy Journal N2 - This paper focuses on seasonal demand swings in the European natural gas market. We quantify and compare the role of different flexibility options (domestic production, gas storage, and pipeline and LNG imports) to assess European demand fluctuations in monthly resolution. We contribute to the existing literature on seasonal flexibility by addressing the problem with a mathematical gas market optimization model. Our paper provides valuable empirical insights into the decline of gas production in northwestern Europe. Furthermore, we focus on how specific flexibility features differ between pipeline supplies and LNG supplies and between gas imports and storage dispatch. In terms of methodology, we construct a bottom-up market optimization model and publish the complete source code (which is uncommon for gas market models). Furthermore, we propose a new metric—the scaled coefficient of variation—to quantify the importance of supply sources for seasonal flexibility provision. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.iaee.org/energyjournal/article/3779 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.43.1.irie SN - 1944-9089 SN - 0195-6574 VL - 43 IS - 1 SP - 117 EP - 138 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sgarciu, Smaranda A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - How CO2 prices accelerate decarbonisation – The case of coal-fired generation in Germany T2 - Energy Policy N2 - This paper analyses the potential impact of the world's two main coal phase-out instruments: 1) direct regulatory intervention restricting the operation of existing coal-fired generation capacity and prohibiting investment in new capacity and 2) market-based CO2-pricing instruments that make emission-intensive coal-fired generation less competitive. We quantify these instruments' potential effects in the empirical setting of Germany, where both instruments are employed concurrently. However, this paper's approach and methodology can be applied in any jurisdiction or energy system worldwide. Our paper provides quantitative results with a pan-European partial-equilibrium electricity system model. The model applies an innovative three-step approach. Step 1 solves an investment and dispatch problem with reduced technical and temporal complexity for European countries. Step 2 computes the dispatch problem at a bihourly resolution and step 3 solves the investment and dispatch problem for Germany with increased technical complexity. Our results confirm that both a regulated phase-out as well as a price on CO2 emissions can reduce the amount of coal-fired generation in an electricity system. If CO2 prices remain at current levels, coal-fired power plants leave the market significantly before the regulated phase-out date, reducing demand for employees in the Lusatian lignite industry. Regions and federal governments should take this finding into account when planning and preparing for structural change. KW - Kohleausstieg KW - Coal phase-out KW - CO2 price KW - Employment KW - Decarbonisation KW - Energy systems modelling Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113375 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 173 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Watermeyer, Mira A1 - Grothe, Oliver A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Enhancing energy system models using better load forecasts T2 - Energy Systems N2 - Since energy system models require a large amount of technical and economic data, their quality significantly affects the reliability of the results. However, some publicly available data sets, such as the transmission system operators’ day-ahead load forecasts, are known to be biased and inaccurate, leading to lower energy system model performance. We propose a time series model that enhances the accuracy of transmission system operators’ load forecast data in real-time, using only the load forecast error’s history as input. We further present an energy system model developed specifically for price forecasts of the short-term day-ahead market. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the improved load data as input by applying it to this model, which shows a strong reduction in pricing errors, particularly during periods of high prices and tight markets. Our results highlight the potential of our method the enhance the accuracy of energy system models using improved input data. KW - Data pre-processing KW - Day-ahead electricity prices KW - Energy system modelling Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-023-00590-3 SN - 1868-3975 SP - 1 EP - 30 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Genge, Lucien A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Supply costs of green chemical energy carriers at the European border: A meta-analysis T2 - International Journal of Hydrogen Energy N2 - Importing green chemical energy carriers is crucial for meeting European climate targets. However, estimating the costs of supplying these energy carriers to Europe remains challenging, leading to a wide range of reported supply-cost estimates. This study analyzes the estimated supply costs of green chemical energy carriers at the European border using a dataset of 1050 data points from 30 studies. The results reveal significant variations in supply costs, with a projected four-fold difference in 2030 and a five-fold difference in 2050 across all energy carriers. The main drivers of cost differences are varying production costs, particularly influenced by the weighted average costs of capital and capital expenditures of renewable energy sources, electrolyzers, and carrier-specific conversion processes. Transport costs also contribute to variations, mainly influenced by the choice of energy carrier and the weighted average costs of capital. To optimize cost-efficiency and sustainability in the chemical energy carrier sector, this paper recommends prioritizing transparency and sensitivity analyses of key input parameters, classifying energy carriers based on technological and economic status, and encouraging research and development to reduce production costs. KW - Green chemical energy carriers KW - Hydrogen derivates KW - Hydrogen supply costs KW - Hydrogen production costs KW - Hydrogen transportation costs KW - Meta-analysis Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.06.180 SN - 0360-3199 VL - 48 IS - 98 SP - 38766 EP - 38781 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - van der Weijde, Adriaan H. T1 - Risk aversion and flexibility options in electricity markets T2 - Energy Economics N2 - Investments in electricity transmission and generation capacity must be made despite significant uncertainty about the future developments. The sources of this uncertainty include, among others, the future levels and spatiotemporal distribution of electricity demand, fuel costs and future energy policy. In recent years, these uncertainties have increased due to the ongoing evolution of supply- and demand-side technologies and rapid policy changes designed to encourage a transition to low-carbon energy systems. Because transmission and generation investments have long lead times and are difficult to reverse, they are subject to a considerable – and arguably growing – amount of risk. KW - Flexibility KW - Storage KW - Demand response KW - Generation and transmission KW - expansion KW - Investment KW - Risk aversion KW - Stochastic programming Y1 - 2023 SN - 0140-9883 SN - 1873-6181 VL - 126 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jalbout, Eddy A1 - Genge, Lucien A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - What do we know about green hydrogen supply costs? T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - This paper is set up to answer the question: What do we know about future hydrogen import costs on the European border? Our work focuses on breaking down, structuring and analysing the body of literature on hydrogen supply chains. We provide a comprehensive analysis on (i) What ranges of costs exist in the literature for specific steps of hydrogen supply chains? (ii) Which assumptions show the highest uncertainty? (iii) Related, what assumption seems to have the most substantial effect on the resulting EUR/kgH2 import cost estimate? While we narrow our discussion focus on North Africa and Australia to Europe in 2050, we hope policymakers, research fellows and energy-sector stakeholders around the globe might be interested in our results. KW - Industries KW - Costs KW - Uncertainty KW - Hydrogen KW - Supply chains KW - Europe KW - IEEE Fellows Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921127 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bernecker, Maximilian A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modeling of Extreme Weather Events—Towards Resilient Transmission Expansion Planning T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - In this paper, we endogenously compute worst-case weather events in a transmission system expansion planning problem using the robust optimization approach. Mathematically, we formulate a three-level mixed-integer optimization problem, which we convert to a bi-level problem via the strong duality concept. We solve the problem using a constraint-and-column generation algorithm. We use cardinality-constrained uncertainty sets to model the effects of extreme weather realizations on supply from renewable generators. KW - Adaptation models KW - Renewable energy sources KW - Wind KW - Uncertainty KW - Mathematical models KW - Power systems KW - Planning Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921145 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Schmidt, Matthew A1 - Baringo, Luis A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Adaptive robust optimization for European strategic gas infrastructure planning T2 - Applied Energy N2 - An adaptive robust optimization model for a gas transmission expansion problem. Analysis of Projects of Common Interests’ value in maintaining gas system resilience. Endogenous realizations of cold-winter demand spikes and supply shortages. Publicly available source code for the entire project. KW - Adaptive robust optimization KW - Capacity planning KW - European gas market KW - Uncertainty Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119686 SN - 1872-9118 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 324 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoffmann, Christin A1 - Ziemann, Niklas A1 - Penske, Franziska A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The value of secure electricity supply for increasing acceptance of green hydrogen - First experimental evidence from the virtual reality lab T2 - 19th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 06-08 June 2023, Lappeenranta, Finland N2 - To unlock the high potential of green hydrogen in reaching the ambitious 1.5 °C goal declared by the Paris Agreement, enormous (public) investments are needed. Social acceptance of these investments is required in order to implement hydrogen technologies as fast and efficiently as possible. This study investigates which benefits associated with green hydrogen foster its social acceptance. Using a between-subject design, we implement two different treatments. Both treatments have in common that the participants experience the transformation into a hydrogen economy in a virtual reality scenario. In "Info Security of Supply", we provide the participants information about the benefits of green hydrogen regarding the security of energy supply and climate protection. In Control, we inform them only about the benefits of climate protection. Subsequently, the participants decide about the financial support of a hydrogen project. Our preliminary results show a higher support if the focus is solely on the positive impact of green hydrogen for climate protection. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10161844 SN - 979-8-3503-1258-4 SN - 979-8-3503-2452-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161844 SN - 2165-4093 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Beiter, Philipp A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Guajardo-Fajardo, Victor Juarez A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Bulder, Bernard A1 - Kitzing, Lena T1 - Policy choices and outcomes for the competitive procurement of offshore wind energy globally T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of utilised auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most auction designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes. KW - Renewable energy KW - Tender design KW - Auction database KW - Support scheme KW - Policy analysis KW - Remuneration Mechanism KW - Revenue stabilisation Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113000 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 167 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nguyen, Thi Ngoc A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts? T2 - Applied Energy N2 - In this paper, 180 papers on photovoltaic (PV) output forecasting were reviewed and a database of forecast errors was extracted for statistical analysis. The paper shows that among the forecast models, hybrid models are most likely to become the primary form of PV output forecasting in the future. The use of data processing techniques is positively correlated with the forecast quality, while the lengths of the forecast horizons and out-of-sample test sets have negative effects on the forecast accuracy. The paper also found that the use of data normalization, the wavelet transform, and the inclusion of clear sky index and numerical weather prediction variables are the most effective data processing techniques. Furthermore, the paper found some evidence of “cherry picking” in the reporting of errors and we recommend that the test sets be at least one year long to avoid any distortion in the performance of the models. KW - Solar energy forecasting KW - Photovoltaics forecasting KW - Evaluating forecasts KW - Forecasting practice KW - Model selection KW - Statistical analysis Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119603 SN - 1872-9118 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 323 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Riepin, Iegor T1 - Is Offshore Already Competitive? Analyzing German Offshore Wind Auctions T2 - 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland N2 - Two German offshore wind auctions in 2017 and 2018 saw more than 50% of winning capacity with “zero bids”. The nature of these surprisingly low bids is, however, not yet clear. In our paper, we discuss four hypotheses for possible causes for the auction results: (i) the bids are expected to be profitable due to market development and technological progress, (ii) bids can be perceived as “options to build” that can be realized if projects are profitable, (iii) bids are adjusted to secure grid access, and (iv) other long term reasons not primarily driven by the profitability of the winning bids. Our results suggest that there is evidence for all hypotheses to influence the decision making of auction bidders. In fact, we suggest to see the four hypothesis as cumulative value components, which reveal the true value of winning the auction at “zero cost” in aggregate. KW - renewable energy auction KW - offshore wind Y1 - 2018 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=8469851 SN - 978-1-5386-1488-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469851 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Integrated Electricity and Gas Market Modeling – Effects of Gas Demand Uncertainty T2 - 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland N2 - This paper develops an integrated fundamental investment model which considers both the gas and electricity sector. Furthermore, we adopt the theory of stochastic programming with recourse in the combined model to account for uncertainty in the gas market. This approach enables us to analyze how uncertain gas demand in other sectors affects decisions to invest in electricity generation capacities. We find an overall decrease and a reallocation of investments in gas-fired power plants. We also quantify the expected costs of ignoring uncertainty. KW - electricity market KW - integrated energy system modeling KW - natural gas market KW - stochastic modeling Y1 - 2018 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=8469790 SN - 978-1-5386-1488-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469790 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuzberg, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Der Einfluss der Speicherkraftwerke in der Alpenregion auf die Strompreise in Deutschland - Eine modellgestützte Analyse T2 - 2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001, 21. bis 23. Februar 2001, Wien Y1 - 2001 PB - Institut für Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft CY - Wien ER -