TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Lienert, Martin T1 - Voraussetzungen einer optimalen Integration erneuerbarer Energien in das Stromversorgungssystem KW - Voraussetzungen einer optimalen erneuerbarer Energie, Stromversorgungssystem Y1 - 2010 UR - http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Navigation/Service/publikationen,did=349366.html CY - Köln [u.a.] ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Lienert, Martin T1 - Förderung der Direktvermarktung und der bedarfsgerechten Einspeisung von Strom aus Erneuerbaren Energien KW - Direktvermarktung KW - Einspeisung Strom KW - Erneuerbare Energien Y1 - 2010 CY - Köln [u.a.] ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Lienert, Martin A1 - Hildebrandt, Elmar T1 - Ökonomische Auswirkungen einer Laufzeitverlängerung deutscher Kernkraftwerke KW - Oekonomische Auswirkungen KW - Laufzeitverlängerung KW - Kernkraftwerk Y1 - 2010 PB - BDI CY - Köln [u.a.] ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Bade, Alexander T1 - Optimierungsstrategien im Portfoliomanagement von Gasversorgungsunternehmen T2 - GWF : das Gas- und Wasserfach KW - Optimierungsstrategien KW - Portfoliomanagement KW - Gasversorgungsunternehmen Y1 - 2010 SN - 0016-4909 VL - 151 IS - 11 SP - 732 EP - 736 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Peek, Markus T1 - Sind Kapazitätsmärkte in Deutschland erforderlich? - Eine kritische Analyse vor dem Hintergrund der ökonomischen Theorie T2 - Zeitschrift für neues Energierecht KW - Kapazitaetsmaerkte KW - Deutschland KW - ökonomischen Theorie Y1 - 2011 SN - 1434-3339 VL - 15 IS - 6 SP - 576 EP - 583 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Steinhaus, Burkhard T1 - Portfoliomanagement: Optimale Energiebeschaffung unter Beruecksichtigung von Risiken KW - Portfoliomanagement KW - Energiebeschaffung Y1 - 2010 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Wissen, Ralf T1 - Was kosten die EEG-Bestandsanlagen bis 2030? T2 - Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen : ET Y1 - 2014 VL - 64 IS - 9 SP - 60 EP - 63 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Peek, Markus T1 - Economics and Design of Balancing Power Markets in Germany T2 - International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems Y1 - 2014 SN - 2070-3767 IS - 55 SP - 392 EP - 401 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Grothe, Oliver T1 - The Influence of Spatial Effects on Wind Power Revenues under Direct Marketing Rules T2 - Energy Policy N2 - In many countries, investments in renewable technologies have been accelerated by fixed feed-in tariffs for electricity from renewable energy sources (RES). While fixed tariffs accomplish this purpose, they lack incentives to align the RES production with price signals. Today, the intermittency of most RES increases the volatility of electricity prices and makes balancing supply and demand more complicated. Therefore, support schemes for RES have to be modified. Recently, Germany launched a scheme which gives wind power operators the monthly choice to either receive a fixed tariff or to risk a – subsidized – access to the wholesale electricity market. This paper quantifies revenues of wind turbines under this new subsidy and analyzes whether, when and where producers may profit. We find that the position of the wind turbine within the country significantly influences revenues in terms of EUR/MWh. The results are important for wind farm operators deciding whether electricity should be sold in the fixed feed-in tariff or in the wholesale market. However, no location is persistently, i.e., in every calendar month of the year, above the average. This limits the effect of the new subsidy scheme on investment locations and long term improvements in the aggregated wind feed-in profile. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.004 SN - 0301-4215 IS - 58 SP - 237 EP - 247 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Ockenfels, Axel A1 - Peek, Markus T1 - Balancing Power Markets in Germany: Timing Matters T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft N2 - This paper analyzes timing issues on the German balancing power market. We focus the analysis on the length of the bidding period, i.e. the length of the time period a supplier has to provide balancing power capacities, and the question of how far before the beginning of a bidding period the auction should be carried out. We show that different load levels require different plants for the optimal provision of balancing power. In a longer bidding period, the power plants that have the lowest average cost in the bidding period are unlikely to be efficient in all hours of the bidding period. Hence, shortening bidding periods can increase efficiency. Furthermore, we show that an early commitment on a power plant’s mode of operation (when uncertainty about resulting spot prices is still relatively high) also reduces efficiency. This suggests that the auction should be held relatively close to the beginning of the bidding period. Furthermore, we discuss some advantages of a liquid real time market. KW - Balancing Power Markets KW - Germany Y1 - 2012 SN - 1866-2765 SN - 0343-5377 VL - 36 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 7 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Seeliger, Andreas T1 - Fracking in Deutschland und Europa – Hype oder Chance T2 - ifo Schnelldienst N2 - Welche Chancen und Risiken ergeben sich aus der Schiefergasförderung in Europa und speziell in Deutschland? Y1 - 2013 UR - http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/SD-24-2013.pdf VL - 66 IS - 24 SP - 3 EP - 10 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Peek, Markus A1 - Schulz, W. ED - Haubrich, Hans-Jürgen T1 - Investigation on the Demand for Transmission Capacity - Investigation for France-Italy based on a Generation Dispatch Model T2 - Analysis of Electricity Network Capacities and Identification of Congestion Y1 - 2001 PB - IAEW CY - Aachen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Grothe, Oliver A1 - Müller, Christoph A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modellierung von Energiepreisrisiken durch Bindefristen bei öffentlichen Ausschreibungen T2 - Zeitschrift für Energie, Markt und Wettbewerb Y1 - 2006 IS - 6 SP - 59 EP - 62 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Growitsch, Christian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Die Liberalisierung des deutschen Strommarktes - ein Erfolgsmodell? T2 - Wirtschaft im Wandel Y1 - 2005 SN - 0947-3211 IS - 12 SP - 383 EP - 387 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Quantifying Market power in the German Wholesale Electricity Market Using a Dynamic Multi-Regional Dispatch Model T2 - Journal of Industrial Economics N2 - This paper quantifies the degree of market power in the German wholesale electricity market. A dispatch model simulates competitive marginal costs. In addition to common input factors like plant capacities, fuel prices and load structures, the model also incorporates international power exchange and dynamic effects like start-up costs and hydro storage plant dispatch. The simulated prices are subsequently used as a benchmark for observed electricity prices. The analysis reveals significant market power in the German electricity market, mainly exhibited during peak periods. Producer surplus is also increased significantly due to strategic behavior. Y1 - 2006 UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-6451 SN - 1467-6451 VL - 54 IS - 4 SP - 471 EP - 498 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bartels, Michael A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Do Technology Specific CO2-Allocations Distort Investments? T2 - Securing energy in insecure times, 29th IAEE International Conference, 7-10 June 2006 in Potsdam Y1 - 2006 SP - 367 EP - 374 PB - IAEE CY - Cleveland ER - TY - GEN A1 - Growitsch, Christian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The Economics of Restructuring the German Electricity Sector T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft N2 - The debate about the development of German electricity prices after the liberalization of energy markets in 1998 raises the question of failures in market restructuring. However, a general statement would be misleading for two main reasons. Firstly, the price development, analyzed for the exemplary case of household prices, shows significant differences among the stages of the value chain. Secondly, the underlying cost structure might have changed from 1998 to 2004. While such effects can be expected to level out over time, they can distort the comparison of a small period of observation. For these reasons, we analyzed the different price components at a detailed level, finding a considerable price reduction of about 32% in generation and a much lower reduction of 13% in transmission and distribution tariffs. These decreases have been mostly compensated by a significant increase in taxes and subsidies (+56%). Y1 - 2005 SN - 0343-5377 VL - 29 IS - 3 SP - 221 EP - 230 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Peichert, Patrick A1 - Perner, Jens A1 - Riechmann, Christoph A1 - Wissen, Ralf T1 - Emissionshandel oder Förderung Erneuerbarer in Europa: Wer sollte langfristig das Steuer übernehmen? T2 - ET Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen Y1 - 2013 SN - 0720-6240 IS - 9 SP - 8 EP - 12 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Seeliger, Andreas T1 - Nicht-konventionelle Erdgasvorkommen in den USA und ihre Auswirkungen auf Europa T2 - Energie für Deutschland 2013 : Fakten, Perspektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext Y1 - 2013 SP - 1 EP - 31 PB - Weltenergierat – Deutschland e.V. CY - Berlin ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Bartels, Michael T1 - Is a Cap-and-Trade System always efficient? The Case of New Entrants in the Emission Trading System of the EU T2 - Journal of Energy Engineering Y1 - 2008 SN - 0733-9402 VL - 134 IS - 2 SP - 33 EP - 39 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kuntz, Ludwig A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modelling Start-Up Costs of Multiple Technologies in Electricity Markets T2 - Mathematical Methods of Operations Research KW - Electricity markets Energy modeling Y1 - 2007 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00186-007-0148-y SN - 1432-2994 VL - 66 IS - 1 SP - 21 EP - 32 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Käso, Mathias A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Grothe, Oliver T1 - Dynamic Forecast Combinations of Improved Individual Forecasts for the Prediction of Wind Energy T2 - IEEE Conference Proceedings EEM 2016 N2 - We study the prediction performance of different improved individual wind energy forecasts in various static and dynamic ombination processes. To this end, we develop a combined error minimization model (CEMM) based on nonlinear functions. This approach reflects the nonlinear nature of weather and especially of wind energy prediction problems. Based on the model, we construct significantly improved individual forecasts. The corresponding time dependent model coefficients are determined by dynamic OLS (ordinary least squares) regression and Kalman filter methods. The former method shows a slightly better performance than the Kalman filter based approaches. Further improvements can be achieved by a combination of these improved wind energy forecasts. In this case, the combination coefficients are calculated from a static and two dynamic OLS regressions. The resulting forecasts are characterized by a further increased prediction accuracy compared to the combination of the uncorrected forecast data and can outperform a given benchmark. Y1 - 2016 UR - http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7521228/ SN - 978-1-5090-1298-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2016.7521228 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Equilibrium prices and investment in electricity systems with CO₂-emission trading and high shares of renewable energies T2 - Energy Economics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.07.028 SN - 0140-9883 VL - 86 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The German Energiewende and its Roll-Out of Renewable Energies: An Economic Perspective T2 - Frontiers in Energy KW - Energiewende KW - Renewable Energies Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11708-017-0467-5 SN - 2095-1698 VL - 11 IS - 2 SP - 126 EP - 134 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix ED - Hipp, Christiane ED - Kaelber, Claus ED - Müller, Jens T1 - Energiewirtschaft – Veränderung und Wandel T2 - Kommunikation erneuerbarer Energieversorgung KW - Energiewende Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www.hs-augsburg.de/~jmueller/e-transform/downloads/booklet1.pdf SP - 30 EP - 37 PB - e-transform CY - Augsburg ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Sektorziele verteuern den Klimaschutz und behindern die Sektorenkopplung KW - Energiewennde KW - Emissionshandel KW - Sektorziele Y1 - 2018 UR - https://energiesysteme-zukunft.de/themen/debatte/sektorziele/ N1 - ESYS-Debattenbeitrag zum Thema: Helfen Sektorziele, den Klimaschutz effizient voranzutreiben? PB - acatech – Deutsche Akademie der Technikwissenschaften CY - Berlin ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Measuring the cost of renewable energy in Germany T2 - The Electricity Journal N2 - Electricity generation from renewable energy is increasing globally. However, in most electricity systems this growth comes at a price in the form of increased costs. This paper quantifies the costs for renewable energy installations built in Germany between 2000 and 2011. Our analysis sheds light on the ‘Energiewende’ in Germany, which is a front runner in the worldwide renewables rollout. To evaluate cost, benefits and policy instruments, the methodology can also be applied to other countries. KW - energy modelling KW - electricity system KW - renewable energy KW - cost-benefit analysis Y1 - 2018 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2018.04.002 SN - 1040-6190 VL - 31 IS - 4 SP - 29 EP - 33 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Engelhorn, Thorsten A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - How to estimate wind-turbine infeed with incomplete stock data: A general framework with an application to turbine-specific market values in Germany T2 - Energy Economics N2 - This paper analyses market values of wind energy converters at the individual turbine level on a very large scale. Such an analysis is usually precluded by the lack of detailed public data on the stock of wind turbines. We therefore present a general method to estimate incomplete turbine stock data and generate hourly yields of individual turbines based on completed turbine stock data and highly disaggregated hourly wind speed data. On this basis, we calculate hourly infeed and annual market values of up to 25,700 wind turbines in Germany from 2005 to 2015. We show the spread in market values on turbine level, quantify regional differences and discuss the effect of turbine age on market values. We show that turbines in central Germany have, on average, lower market values than turbines in the north, south or far west of Germany. Furthermore, we show that modern turbines reach higher market values than older turbines. We also analyse the drivers of market values, differentiating between infeed-price correlation and standard deviation. KW - renewable energy sources KW - wind energy KW - bottom-up modeling KW - cost minimization KW - market value KW - power curves Y1 - 2018 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.04.022 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/WP_Engelhorn_Muesgens_2017.pdf UR - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX4x3kUQBlk&t=15s SN - 0140-9883 VL - 72 SP - 542 EP - 557 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Asymmetric Diesel Retail Pricing Strategies: Depending on Brands and Population Densities? N2 - Asymmetric cost pass-through between crude oil and retail fuel prices "Rockets and Feathers" has been analysed for different countries and time periods. However, few studies have been conducted for the German market. Furthermore, this study differentiates between company types and regions in this context. We compare price setting behaviour of independent and major brand stations following oil price changes. Furthermore, we differentiate between regions with higher and lower population densities. We establish an error correction model with a novel data set from the years 2011 to 2012. Our results confirm significant differences between price setting behaviour after oil price changes of major brand stations and other stations. KW - diesel price KW - error correc tion model KW - oil price KW - reta il fuel KW - rockets and feathers KW - spatial analysis Y1 - 2018 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/WorkingPaper/2018(1)_Working-Paper_Asymmetric%20Diesel%20Retail%20Pricing%20Strategies_12_2018.pdf PB - Brandenburgische Technische Universität CY - Cottbus ; Senftenberg ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - A first analysis of the photovoltaic auction program in Germany T2 - 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) KW - photovoltaic auction program KW - Auction KW - Competition KW - Germany KW - Photovoltaics KW - Project completion KW - Renewable energy Y1 - 2019 SN - 978-1-7281-1257-2 SN - 978-1-7281-1256-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2019.8916472 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Weyer, Hartmut A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Netzengpässe als Herausforderung für das Stromversorgungssystem. Regelungsfelder, Status quo und Handlungsoptionen KW - Energiesysteme KW - Schriftenreihe Energiesysteme der Zukunft KW - Stromversorgungssystem KW - Netzengpässe KW - erneuerbare Energien Y1 - 2020 UR - https://energiesysteme-zukunft.de/publikationen/analyse/analyse-netzengpaesse SN - 978-3-9820053-2-4 CY - München ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The era of ‘negative-subsidy’ offshore wind power has almost arrived KW - offshore wind farms KW - Nature Energy KW - Offshore wind auctions KW - offshore wind Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the-era-of-negative-subsidy-offshore-wind-power-has-almost-arrived ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Evaluating the German PV auction program: The secrets of individual bids revealed T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Auctions have become the primary instrument for promoting renewable energy around the world. However, the data published on such auctions are typically limited to aggregated information (e.g., total awarded capacity, average payments). These data constraints hinder the evaluation of realisation rates and other relevant auction dynamics. In this study, we present an algorithm to overcome these data limitations in German renewable energy auction programme by combining publicly available information from four different databases. We apply it to the German solar auction programme and evaluate auctions using quantitative methods. We calculate realisation rates and—using correlation and regression analysis—explore the impact of PV module prices, competition, and project and developer characteristics on project realisation and bid values. Our results confirm that the German auctions were effective. We also found that project realisation took, on average, 1.5 years (with 28% of projects finished late and incurring a financial penalty), nearly half of projects changed location before completion (again, incurring a financial penalty) and small and inexperienced developers could successfully participate in auctions. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421521004845 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112618 SN - 0301-4215 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modelling uncertainty in coupled electricity and gas systems - is it worth the effort? T2 - Applied Energy N2 - The interdependence of electricity and natural gas markets is becoming a major topic in energy research. Integrated energy models are used to assist decision-making for businesses and policymakers addressing challenges of energy transition and climate change. The analysis of complex energy systems requires large-scale models, which are based on extensive databases, intertemporal dynamics and a multitude of decision variables. Integrating such energy system models results in increased system complexity. This complexity poses a challenge for energy modellers to address multiple uncertainties that affect both markets. Stochastic optimisation approaches enable an adequate consideration of uncertainties in investment and operation planning; however, stochastic modelling of integrated large-scale energy systems further scales the level of complexity. In this paper, we combine integrated and stochastic optimisation problems and parametrise our model for European electricity and gas markets. We analyse and compare the impact of uncertain input parameters, such as gas and electricity demand, renewable energy capacities and fuel and CO2 prices, on the quality of the solution obtained in the integrated optimisation problem. Our results quantify the value of encoding uncertainty as a part of a model. While the methodological contribution should be of interest for energy modellers, our findings are relevant for industry experts and stakeholders with an empirical interest in the European energy system. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261920317426?via%3Dihub U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116363 SN - 1872-9118 VL - 285 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Engelhorn, Thorsten A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Why is Germany’s energy transition so expensive? Quantifying costs from wind energy decentralisation T2 - Resource and Energy Economics N2 - This paper discusses the efficiency of promotion schemes for renewable energy sources using the example of onshore wind energy in Germany. We analyse whether the scheme incentivised a cost-minimal capacity build-up by developing a model to derive two cost-minimal benchmark scenarios, which are then compared to the historical capacity build-up between 1995 and 2015. The costs of the two cost-minimising benchmark scenarios are significantly lower than those of the historical build-up. The benchmark cost reduction largely stems from greater efficiency—fewer turbines are being constructed overall but they are being placed at better wind sites so the annual production of wind energy remains unchanged. Hence, aggregated turbine land use is also significantly down in these scenarios. Furthermore, we compare costs for consumers, as protecting consumers from price discrimination of producers is sometimes used to justify higher payments for low-wind sites. However, our results show that the efficiency gain from building at high wind sites outweighs the distributional effect, even from a consumer’s perspective. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928765521000269 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2021.101241 SN - 1873-0221 VL - 65 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Antweiler, Werner A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - On the long-term merit order effect of renewable energies T2 - Energy Economics N2 - The merit order effect describes the lowering of the average wholesale electricity price due to increased capacity of renewable energies. This effect has been observed in many places. While it is beneficial for consumers, it has triggered concerns about the economic viability of legacy plants. Is this merit order effect a permanent feature of high shares of renewable energy, or merely a transitory phase? This article develops a simple theoretical model to shed light on this question. It introduces intermittent renewable energies into a conventional mix of base load and peak load and investigates the effect when base and peak load remain unchanged in the short-term, and when they fully adjust in the long-term. We find that the merit order effect is a temporary phenomenon that is caused by the slow pace of capacity adjustments. We also find that the introduction of renewables has a mild beneficial long-term effect when base load is provided monopolistically, as renewables compete with base load to a limited extent. Consequently, concerns about the adverse consequences for conventional power plants resulting from renewable capacity are only partially justified. While in the short-term the generation portfolio suffers from “stranded assets”, market forces will gradually reduce overcapacity. We also confirm that renewable expansion can be complemented by energy-only markets to incentivize efficient investment in conventional capacity. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321001808?via%3Dihub U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105275 SN - 0140-9883 SN - 1873-6181 VL - 99 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Seasonal flexibility in the European natural gas market T2 - The Energy Journal N2 - This paper focuses on seasonal demand swings in the European natural gas market. We quantify and compare the role of different flexibility options (domestic production, gas storage, and pipeline and LNG imports) to assess European demand fluctuations in monthly resolution. We contribute to the existing literature on seasonal flexibility by addressing the problem with a mathematical gas market optimization model. Our paper provides valuable empirical insights into the decline of gas production in northwestern Europe. Furthermore, we focus on how specific flexibility features differ between pipeline supplies and LNG supplies and between gas imports and storage dispatch. In terms of methodology, we construct a bottom-up market optimization model and publish the complete source code (which is uncommon for gas market models). Furthermore, we propose a new metric—the scaled coefficient of variation—to quantify the importance of supply sources for seasonal flexibility provision. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.iaee.org/energyjournal/article/3779 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.43.1.irie SN - 1944-9089 SN - 0195-6574 VL - 43 IS - 1 SP - 117 EP - 138 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sgarciu, Smaranda A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - How CO2 prices accelerate decarbonisation – The case of coal-fired generation in Germany T2 - Energy Policy N2 - This paper analyses the potential impact of the world's two main coal phase-out instruments: 1) direct regulatory intervention restricting the operation of existing coal-fired generation capacity and prohibiting investment in new capacity and 2) market-based CO2-pricing instruments that make emission-intensive coal-fired generation less competitive. We quantify these instruments' potential effects in the empirical setting of Germany, where both instruments are employed concurrently. However, this paper's approach and methodology can be applied in any jurisdiction or energy system worldwide. Our paper provides quantitative results with a pan-European partial-equilibrium electricity system model. The model applies an innovative three-step approach. Step 1 solves an investment and dispatch problem with reduced technical and temporal complexity for European countries. Step 2 computes the dispatch problem at a bihourly resolution and step 3 solves the investment and dispatch problem for Germany with increased technical complexity. Our results confirm that both a regulated phase-out as well as a price on CO2 emissions can reduce the amount of coal-fired generation in an electricity system. If CO2 prices remain at current levels, coal-fired power plants leave the market significantly before the regulated phase-out date, reducing demand for employees in the Lusatian lignite industry. Regions and federal governments should take this finding into account when planning and preparing for structural change. KW - Kohleausstieg KW - Coal phase-out KW - CO2 price KW - Employment KW - Decarbonisation KW - Energy systems modelling Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113375 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 173 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Watermeyer, Mira A1 - Grothe, Oliver A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Enhancing energy system models using better load forecasts T2 - Energy Systems N2 - Since energy system models require a large amount of technical and economic data, their quality significantly affects the reliability of the results. However, some publicly available data sets, such as the transmission system operators’ day-ahead load forecasts, are known to be biased and inaccurate, leading to lower energy system model performance. We propose a time series model that enhances the accuracy of transmission system operators’ load forecast data in real-time, using only the load forecast error’s history as input. We further present an energy system model developed specifically for price forecasts of the short-term day-ahead market. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the improved load data as input by applying it to this model, which shows a strong reduction in pricing errors, particularly during periods of high prices and tight markets. Our results highlight the potential of our method the enhance the accuracy of energy system models using improved input data. KW - Data pre-processing KW - Day-ahead electricity prices KW - Energy system modelling Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-023-00590-3 SN - 1868-3975 SP - 1 EP - 30 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Genge, Lucien A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Supply costs of green chemical energy carriers at the European border: A meta-analysis T2 - International Journal of Hydrogen Energy N2 - Importing green chemical energy carriers is crucial for meeting European climate targets. However, estimating the costs of supplying these energy carriers to Europe remains challenging, leading to a wide range of reported supply-cost estimates. This study analyzes the estimated supply costs of green chemical energy carriers at the European border using a dataset of 1050 data points from 30 studies. The results reveal significant variations in supply costs, with a projected four-fold difference in 2030 and a five-fold difference in 2050 across all energy carriers. The main drivers of cost differences are varying production costs, particularly influenced by the weighted average costs of capital and capital expenditures of renewable energy sources, electrolyzers, and carrier-specific conversion processes. Transport costs also contribute to variations, mainly influenced by the choice of energy carrier and the weighted average costs of capital. To optimize cost-efficiency and sustainability in the chemical energy carrier sector, this paper recommends prioritizing transparency and sensitivity analyses of key input parameters, classifying energy carriers based on technological and economic status, and encouraging research and development to reduce production costs. KW - Green chemical energy carriers KW - Hydrogen derivates KW - Hydrogen supply costs KW - Hydrogen production costs KW - Hydrogen transportation costs KW - Meta-analysis Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.06.180 SN - 0360-3199 VL - 48 IS - 98 SP - 38766 EP - 38781 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - van der Weijde, Adriaan H. T1 - Risk aversion and flexibility options in electricity markets T2 - Energy Economics N2 - Investments in electricity transmission and generation capacity must be made despite significant uncertainty about the future developments. The sources of this uncertainty include, among others, the future levels and spatiotemporal distribution of electricity demand, fuel costs and future energy policy. In recent years, these uncertainties have increased due to the ongoing evolution of supply- and demand-side technologies and rapid policy changes designed to encourage a transition to low-carbon energy systems. Because transmission and generation investments have long lead times and are difficult to reverse, they are subject to a considerable – and arguably growing – amount of risk. KW - Flexibility KW - Storage KW - Demand response KW - Generation and transmission KW - expansion KW - Investment KW - Risk aversion KW - Stochastic programming Y1 - 2023 SN - 0140-9883 SN - 1873-6181 VL - 126 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jalbout, Eddy A1 - Genge, Lucien A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - What do we know about green hydrogen supply costs? T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - This paper is set up to answer the question: What do we know about future hydrogen import costs on the European border? Our work focuses on breaking down, structuring and analysing the body of literature on hydrogen supply chains. We provide a comprehensive analysis on (i) What ranges of costs exist in the literature for specific steps of hydrogen supply chains? (ii) Which assumptions show the highest uncertainty? (iii) Related, what assumption seems to have the most substantial effect on the resulting EUR/kgH2 import cost estimate? While we narrow our discussion focus on North Africa and Australia to Europe in 2050, we hope policymakers, research fellows and energy-sector stakeholders around the globe might be interested in our results. KW - Industries KW - Costs KW - Uncertainty KW - Hydrogen KW - Supply chains KW - Europe KW - IEEE Fellows Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921127 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bernecker, Maximilian A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Modeling of Extreme Weather Events—Towards Resilient Transmission Expansion Planning T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - In this paper, we endogenously compute worst-case weather events in a transmission system expansion planning problem using the robust optimization approach. Mathematically, we formulate a three-level mixed-integer optimization problem, which we convert to a bi-level problem via the strong duality concept. We solve the problem using a constraint-and-column generation algorithm. We use cardinality-constrained uncertainty sets to model the effects of extreme weather realizations on supply from renewable generators. KW - Adaptation models KW - Renewable energy sources KW - Wind KW - Uncertainty KW - Mathematical models KW - Power systems KW - Planning Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921145 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Schmidt, Matthew A1 - Baringo, Luis A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Adaptive robust optimization for European strategic gas infrastructure planning T2 - Applied Energy N2 - An adaptive robust optimization model for a gas transmission expansion problem. Analysis of Projects of Common Interests’ value in maintaining gas system resilience. Endogenous realizations of cold-winter demand spikes and supply shortages. Publicly available source code for the entire project. KW - Adaptive robust optimization KW - Capacity planning KW - European gas market KW - Uncertainty Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119686 SN - 1872-9118 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 324 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoffmann, Christin A1 - Ziemann, Niklas A1 - Penske, Franziska A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The value of secure electricity supply for increasing acceptance of green hydrogen - First experimental evidence from the virtual reality lab T2 - 19th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 06-08 June 2023, Lappeenranta, Finland N2 - To unlock the high potential of green hydrogen in reaching the ambitious 1.5 °C goal declared by the Paris Agreement, enormous (public) investments are needed. Social acceptance of these investments is required in order to implement hydrogen technologies as fast and efficiently as possible. This study investigates which benefits associated with green hydrogen foster its social acceptance. Using a between-subject design, we implement two different treatments. Both treatments have in common that the participants experience the transformation into a hydrogen economy in a virtual reality scenario. In "Info Security of Supply", we provide the participants information about the benefits of green hydrogen regarding the security of energy supply and climate protection. In Control, we inform them only about the benefits of climate protection. Subsequently, the participants decide about the financial support of a hydrogen project. Our preliminary results show a higher support if the focus is solely on the positive impact of green hydrogen for climate protection. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10161844 SN - 979-8-3503-1258-4 SN - 979-8-3503-2452-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161844 SN - 2165-4093 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Beiter, Philipp A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Guajardo-Fajardo, Victor Juarez A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Bulder, Bernard A1 - Kitzing, Lena T1 - Policy choices and outcomes for the competitive procurement of offshore wind energy globally T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of utilised auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most auction designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes. KW - Renewable energy KW - Tender design KW - Auction database KW - Support scheme KW - Policy analysis KW - Remuneration Mechanism KW - Revenue stabilisation Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113000 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 167 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nguyen, Thi Ngoc A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts? T2 - Applied Energy N2 - In this paper, 180 papers on photovoltaic (PV) output forecasting were reviewed and a database of forecast errors was extracted for statistical analysis. The paper shows that among the forecast models, hybrid models are most likely to become the primary form of PV output forecasting in the future. The use of data processing techniques is positively correlated with the forecast quality, while the lengths of the forecast horizons and out-of-sample test sets have negative effects on the forecast accuracy. The paper also found that the use of data normalization, the wavelet transform, and the inclusion of clear sky index and numerical weather prediction variables are the most effective data processing techniques. Furthermore, the paper found some evidence of “cherry picking” in the reporting of errors and we recommend that the test sets be at least one year long to avoid any distortion in the performance of the models. KW - Solar energy forecasting KW - Photovoltaics forecasting KW - Evaluating forecasts KW - Forecasting practice KW - Model selection KW - Statistical analysis Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119603 SN - 1872-9118 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 323 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Riepin, Iegor T1 - Is Offshore Already Competitive? Analyzing German Offshore Wind Auctions T2 - 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland N2 - Two German offshore wind auctions in 2017 and 2018 saw more than 50% of winning capacity with “zero bids”. The nature of these surprisingly low bids is, however, not yet clear. In our paper, we discuss four hypotheses for possible causes for the auction results: (i) the bids are expected to be profitable due to market development and technological progress, (ii) bids can be perceived as “options to build” that can be realized if projects are profitable, (iii) bids are adjusted to secure grid access, and (iv) other long term reasons not primarily driven by the profitability of the winning bids. Our results suggest that there is evidence for all hypotheses to influence the decision making of auction bidders. In fact, we suggest to see the four hypothesis as cumulative value components, which reveal the true value of winning the auction at “zero cost” in aggregate. KW - renewable energy auction KW - offshore wind Y1 - 2018 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=8469851 SN - 978-1-5386-1488-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469851 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Integrated Electricity and Gas Market Modeling – Effects of Gas Demand Uncertainty T2 - 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland N2 - This paper develops an integrated fundamental investment model which considers both the gas and electricity sector. Furthermore, we adopt the theory of stochastic programming with recourse in the combined model to account for uncertainty in the gas market. This approach enables us to analyze how uncertain gas demand in other sectors affects decisions to invest in electricity generation capacities. We find an overall decrease and a reallocation of investments in gas-fired power plants. We also quantify the expected costs of ignoring uncertainty. KW - electricity market KW - integrated energy system modeling KW - natural gas market KW - stochastic modeling Y1 - 2018 UR - https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=8469790 SN - 978-1-5386-1488-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469790 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuzberg, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Der Einfluss der Speicherkraftwerke in der Alpenregion auf die Strompreise in Deutschland - Eine modellgestützte Analyse T2 - 2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001, 21. bis 23. Februar 2001, Wien Y1 - 2001 PB - Institut für Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft CY - Wien ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - How to improve standard load profiles: Updating, regionalization and smart meter data T2 - 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017 Y1 - 2017 SN - 978-1-5090-5499-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2017.7981939 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Electricity Market Equilibria and Intermittent Renewables – A Stochastic Approach T2 - 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017 Y1 - 2017 SN - 978-1-5090-5499-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2017.7981988 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Roads to Transition in German Energy Policy T2 - The road to Paris & multi-level carbon pricing: Getting the incentives right at the global, European & national level Y1 - 2015 UR - http://www.r2b-energy.com/uploads/media/Workshop_Report_Multi-level_Carbon_Pricing.pdf SP - 46 EP - 57 PB - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung CY - Potsdam, Cottbus ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Asymmetries in the German Diesel Retail Market T2 - IEEE Conference Proceeding EEM 2016 N2 - Economists often analyze asymmetric cost passthrough between retail fuel prices and oil prices (‘Rockets and Feathers’) as a proxy for market power. Such symmetries have been analyzed for different countries and time periods. However, few studies have been conducted for the German market. Furthermore, no study has differentiated between company types in this context. In this paper, we analyze market behavior in the German diesel market. We compare the pricing strategies of independent petrol stations with the general diesel market. Independent petrol stations have no connection with popular fuel brands and therefore might decrease market power of dominating brand stations. We use an error correction model for the period from 2011 to 2012 to evaluate the specific market behavior. We conclude that asymmetric pricing behavior is given for independent petrol stations as well as for the whole German market. Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-1-5090-1298-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2016.7521192 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kreuzberger, M. A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Der Einfluss der Speicherkrafftwerke in der Alpenregion auf die Strompreise in Deutschland T2 - 2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001 Wien Y1 - 2001 PB - Institut für Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft CY - Wien ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Käso, Mathias T1 - Auktionsdesign für Photovoltaikanlagen auf Freiflächen KW - optimales Auktionsdesign KW - Erneuerbare Energien Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/Gutachten_Auktionsdesign_BTU_r2b_2014.pdf PB - r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.] CY - Köln ; Cottbus ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Lienert, Martin T1 - Political Shocks and Efficient Investment in Electricity Markets T2 - European Energy Market (EEM), 2012 9th International Conference on the N2 - This paper presents a fundamental electricity market model capturing many essential features of investments in electricity markets - fuel price developments, investment and generation costs, demand and dynamic effects such as start-up costs and (pump) storage dispatch. The partial equilibrium model minimizes the total costs of the electricity system ensuring demand coverage. The model optimizes both long-run investment as well as short-run dispatch decisions. From the optimal solution, the optimal future generation technology mix and dispatch can be derived. Furthermore, using the concept of shadow prices in mathematical programming, we calculate electricity price predictions. The model is applied to analyze the effect of recent political shocks in German nuclear energy policy on the electricity market and the power plant portfolio. The effect is quantified using the example of a specific combined cycle gas turbine project. We find a significant impact on the future net revenues. Y1 - 2012 SN - 978-1-4673-0834-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2012.6491508 SP - 1 EP - 9 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Wissen, Ralf T1 - Abschätzung von Förderkosten der Bestandsanlagen erneuerbarer Energien bis zum Jahr 2030 Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/EEG-Differenzkosten_Working_Paper_final.pdf PB - Brandenburgische Technische Universität CY - Cottbus ; Senftenberg ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Increasing flexibility of combined heat and power plants with Power-to-Heat T2 - Proceedings, 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lisbon, 19-22 May 2015 Y1 - 2015 SN - 978-1-4673-6692-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2015.7216771 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The Effect of Variable Renewable Energy Sources on the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Prices - A Stylized Full Cost Approach T2 - Proceedings, 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lisbon, 19-22 May 2015 Y1 - 2015 SN - 978-1-4673-6692-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2015.7216772 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Riepin, Iegor T1 - Offshore-Windenergie - subventionsfrei? T2 - e|m|w.Trends : das Innovationsmagazin von ener|gate KW - Offshore-Windenergie KW - Nature Energy KW - Offshore-Windtechnologien Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.emw-online.com/trends/artikel/205364/offshore-windenergie-subventionsfrei SN - 1611-2997 IS - 5 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian T1 - Über eine CO2-Bepreisung zur Sektorenkopplung: Ein neues Marktdesign für die Energiewende N2 - Dieser Impuls stellt Zwischenergebnisse der ESYS Arbeitsgruppe „Strommarktdesign“ vor. Ein Schwerpunkt der Arbeitsgruppe ist ein verbessertes Marktdesign für die Sektorenkopplung, dessen wesentlicher Bestandteil eine wirksame CO2-Bepreisung ist. Aufgrund der aktuellen klimapolitischen Debatten und der damit verbundenen großen Dynamik hat die Arbeitsgruppe dieses Impuls mit besonderem Fokus auf dem CO2-Preis verfasst. Die Gesamtergebnisse werden 2020 in einer ausführlichen Studie veröffentlicht, die auch weitere Aspekte des Strommarktdesigns umfasst. KW - Energiesysteme der Zukunft KW - Energiewende KW - CO2-Bepreisung Y1 - 2019 UR - https://www.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/publikationen/publikationsliste ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Seeliger, Andreas T1 - Unkonventionelle Erdgasvorkommen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Europa T2 - Energie für Deutschland 2013 : Fakten, Perspektiven und Positionen im globalen Kontext KW - Fracking Y1 - 2013 UR - www.weltenergierat.de/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/30739_DNK_Energie_final_150dpi.pdf SP - 7 EP - 31 PB - Weltenergierat – Deutschland e.V. CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Lenzen, V. A1 - Lienert, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Effizientes Regime für den Ausbau der EE, Weiterentwicklung des Energy-Only-Marktes und Erhaltung des EU-ETS Y1 - 2013 PB - Frontier Economics [u.a.] CY - Brussels [u.a.] ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Seeliger, Andreas T1 - Der Shale Gas-Boom in den USA und die ökonomischen Auswirkungen auf Deutschland T2 - ifo Schnelldienst Y1 - 2013 SN - 0018-974X VL - 66 IS - 24 SP - 3 EP - 5 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Ökonomische Besonderheiten des Energiemarktes T2 - EnWZ : Zeitschrift für das gesamte Recht der Energiewirtschaft KW - Energiewirtschaft Y1 - 2017 SN - 2195-2841 VL - 6 IS - 7 SP - 243 EP - 247 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sgarciu, Smaranda A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Osorio, Sebastian A1 - Pahle, Michael T1 - Is Germany on track to achieve 2030 climate and energy targets? T2 - List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik N2 - The future development of CO2emissions in the German electricity sector by 2030 is unclear: On the one hand, the amendment to the Climate Protection Act (from August 2021) aims to tighten emission reduction targets in order to promote the path to a decarbonised energy system. On the other hand, the complex interplay between the main instruments for reducing carbon emissions, fuel prices and the current energy shortage as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine is creating pressure for an increase in emissions. In our study, we examine whether Germany is on track to achieve its climate protection targets for 2030 and which measures can increase the likelihood. To do this, we use an energy system model parameterized to reflect the situation in the energy market in 2021, i.e. before Russia's attack on Ukraine. In addition to the quantitative side, we provide a qualitative analysis of the energy market in the light of recent events. We stress the importance of introducing a carbon price floor that can be dynamically changed in response to the development of other market forces and policies. This instrument would institutionalize a more plausible path to decarbonization and provide reassurance to investors. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s41025-023-00255-0 SN - 2364-3943 VL - 49 SP - 93 EP - 107 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoffmann, Christin A1 - Jalbout, Eddy A1 - Villanueva, Monica A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Positive and Negative Externalities from Renewable and Conventional Power Plants in the Backyard: The Value of Participation T2 - SSRN eLibrary N2 - We quantify the net external effects of conventional and renewable electricity generators by analyzing housing prices in their vicinity. Using a Differences-in-Differences approach, we find that (1) wind turbines reduce prices significantly, (2) solar fields have no significant impact, and (3) conventional plants over 1 km away show positive net effects. We set out to explain this result by disentangling the positive local external effects of energy generation, which we measure in terms of local purchasing power and tax revenues. Our results show that the commissioning of conventional power stations results in a significant increase in both purchasing power and business tax income in the vicinity. We thus conclude that significant financial participation of the local public in the development of renewable energy projects, especially wind turbines, could be key to increasing their acceptance and accelerating their expansion. KW - Renewable energy KW - Conventional power plants KW - Hedonic valuation KW - Difference-in-Differences KW - Wind turbines KW - Solar fields KW - Financial participation KW - Acceptance Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4203184 SN - 1556-5068 SP - 1 EP - 33 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Evaluating the German onshore wind auction programme: An analysis based on individual bids T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Auctions are a highly demanded policy instrument for the promotion of renewable energy sources. Their flexible structure makes them adaptable to country-specific conditions and needs. However, their success depends greatly on how those needs are operationalised in the design elements. Disaggregating data from the German onshore wind auction programme into individual projects, we evaluated the contribution of auctions to the achievement of their primary (deployment at competitive prices) and secondary (diversity) objectives and have highlighted design elements that affect the policy's success or failure. We have shown that, in the German case, the auction scheme is unable to promote wind deployment at competitive prices, and that the design elements used to promote the secondary objectives not only fall short at achieving their intended goals, but create incentives for large actors to game the system. KW - Renewable energy KW - Auction KW - Wind KW - Onshore KW - Community energy KW - companies KW - Germany Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113317 SN - 1873-6777 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 172 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Scholz, Daniel A1 - Zundel, Stefan A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Price and Employment Effects triggered by a German Coal Phase-Out – A Discourse Analysis T2 - 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) KW - Policy Brief zu Strompreis- und Arbeitsplatzeffekten eines Kohleausstiegs KW - Kohleausstieg KW - Strompreis KW - Arbeitsplatzeffekt Y1 - 2019 SN - 978-1-7281-1257-2 SN - 978-1-7281-1258-9 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2019.8916478 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 PB - IEEE ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoffmann, Christin A1 - Byrukuri Gangadhar, Shanmukha Srinivas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Smells Like Green Energy - Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Impact of Bioenergy Production on Residential Property Values T2 - SSRN eLibrary N2 - Residents' acceptance of bioenergy is a prerequisite for its fast and efficient development but is ambiguously discussed in practice and research. We interpret a causal impact of bioenergy plant commissioning on housing prices in their vicinity as the average net external effects for residents. We utilize bioenergy plant construction data in Germany between 2007 and 2022 as a quasi-experiment with naturally occurring control groups in their vicinity and apply recently improved difference-in-difference estimation procedures to analyze instantaneous and heterogeneous treatment effects. We find a significant and negative impact on housing prices if plants use gaseous biofuel, generate electricity on-site, and are medium-sized. The magnitude of the effect is comparable to those for solar fields. In contrast, we find no impact for small and large bioenergy plants and those that use solid or liquid biofuels. KW - Bioenergy KW - Local acceptance KW - differences-in-differences KW - Hedonic pricing Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4760312 SN - 1556-5068 SP - 1 EP - 26 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bade, Alexander A1 - Käso, Mathias A1 - Lienert, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Schmitz, Christoph A1 - Wissen, Ralf T1 - Ausgestaltung eines Auktionsmodells für EE-Anlagen in Deutschland KW - optimales Auktionsdesign KW - Erneuerbare Energien Y1 - 2015 UR - https://www.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/publikationen/publikationsliste UR - https://www.r2b-energy.com/uploads/media/20151001_r2b_BTU_Auktionsdesign_EE_01.pdf PB - r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.] CY - Köln ; Cottbus ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nikodinoska, Dragana A1 - Käso, Mathias A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations T2 - Applied Energy N2 - Precise renewable energy feed-in forecasts are essential for an effective and efficient integration of renewables into energy systems, and research contributions that help to reduce the uncertainty related to renewables are in high demand. This importance will increase in the future, as renewable energies are the world’s fastest growing electricity generation capacities. Forecast combinations have been empirically proven to outperform individual forecasting models in many disciplines. Our work uses an elastic net method, with cross-validation and rolling window estimation, in the context of renewable energy forecasts. Namely, the forecast combinations are obtained using regional data from Germany for both solar photovoltaic and wind feed-in during the period 2010–2018, with quarter-hourly frequency. The dynamic elastic net estimation, preceded by dynamic data pre-processing, improves forecasting accuracy for both photovoltaic and wind power feed-in forecasts. Moreover, our forecasting framework outperforms benchmarks such as simple average and individual forecasts. Our forecasting framework can be applied widely to estimate renewable power in other countries, systems, or individual power plants. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117983 SN - 1872-9118 VL - 306, Part A ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Ockenfels, Axel ED - Franz, Wolfgang ED - Ramser, Hans-Jürgen ED - Stadler, Manfred T1 - Marktdesign in der Energiewirtschaft T2 - Umwelt und Energie : Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Seminar Ottobeuren Y1 - 2006 SN - 978-3-16-149104-7 SP - 247 EP - 272 PB - Mohr Siebeck CY - Tübingen ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Schulz, Walter T1 - Energiereport IV: Die Entwicklung der Energiemärkte bis zum Jahr 2030 - Energiewirtschaftliche Referenzprognose Y1 - 2005 N1 - weitere Autoren PB - Vulkan Verlag CY - Essen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Kitzing, Lena A1 - Quoilin, Sylvain A1 - Wiggelinkhuizen, Edwin A1 - Bulder, Bernard A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy T2 - Nature Energy Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0661-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0661-2 SN - 2058-7546 VL - 5 IS - 8 SP - 614 EP - 622 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bade, Alexander A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Verteilungsaspekte einer Harmonisierung der europäischen Klimaschutzmaßnahmen T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-016-0170-y SN - 0343-5377 SN - 1866-2765 VL - 40 IS - 1 SP - 33 EP - 40 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bade, Alexander A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Auswirkungen eines ‘Wassertiefenbonus’ bei Ausschreibungen für Windenergieanlagen auf See T2 - ET Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen Y1 - 2016 SN - 0013-743X SN - 0720-6240 VL - 66 IS - 10 SP - 25 EP - 27 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bade, Alexander A1 - Growitsch, Christian A1 - Lienert, Martin A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Schmitz, Christoph A1 - Wolf, A. T1 - Aktionsprogramm Klimaschutz 2020: Konsequenzen potenzieller Kraftwerksstilllegungen Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/2014_11_19_r2b_HWWI_Gutachten_BDI_Klimaschutz.pdf PB - r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.] CY - Köln ; Hamburg ; Cottbus ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bade, Alexander A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Warum brauchen wir eine stärkere Harmonisierung der Energiepolitik in der EU? Y1 - 2014 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/20141022_Thesenpapier_EU_Harmonisierung.pdf PB - r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.] CY - Köln ; Cottbus ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nguyen, Thi Ngoc A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - A Meta-Analysis of Solar Forecasting Based on Skill Score T2 - arXiv N2 - We conduct the first comprehensive meta-analysis of deterministic solar forecasting based on skill score, screening 1,447 papers from Google Scholar and reviewing the full texts of 320 papers for data extraction. A database of 4,687 points was built and analyzed with multivariate adaptive regression spline modelling, partial dependence plots, and linear regression. The marginal impacts on skill score of ten factors were quantified. The analysis shows the non-linearity and complex interaction between variables in the database. Forecast horizon has a central impact and dominates other factors' impacts. Therefore, the analysis of solar forecasts should be done separately for each horizon. Climate zone variables have statistically significant correlation with skill score. Regarding inputs, historical data and spatial temporal information are highly helpful. For intra-day, sky and satellite images show the most importance. For day-ahead, numerical weather predictions and locally measured meteorological data are very efficient. All forecast models were compared. Ensemble-hybrid models achieve the most accurate forecasts for all horizons. Hybrid models show superiority for intra-hour while image-based methods are the most efficient for intra-day forecasts. More training data can enhance skill score. However, over-fitting is observed when there is too much training data (longer than 2000 days). There has been a substantial improvement in solar forecast accuracy, especially in recent years. More improvement is observed for intra-hour and intra-day than day-ahead forecasts. By controlling for the key differences between forecasts, including location variables, our findings can be applied globally. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2208.10536 SP - 1 EP - 55 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jalbout, Eddy A1 - Genge, Lucien A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - H2Europe: an analysis of long-term hydrogen import-potentials from the MENA region T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia N2 - Our paper assesses the economic viability of green hydrogen exports from the middle east and north Africa to the EU in the long-term (for the year 2050). For this purpose, we simulate a techno-economic hydrogen supply chain based on generation from renewable energy sources. The chain of production, conversion, and transportation costs, in combination with potentials, yields a merit order of hydrogen supply. The paper focuses on one low-cost option for imports from the middle east and north Africa region. In addition, it provides a classification of additional options. We find that due to proximity, retrofitting and potentially even installing new pipelines from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia could provide nearly half the expected European demand of 60 million tons p.a. by 2050. Based on our assumptions, the costs would be around 2 €/kgH 2 . KW - Renewable energy sources KW - Costs KW - Pipelines KW - Supply chains KW - Green products KW - Europe KW - Hydrogen Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 SN - 978-1-6654-0897-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921055 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 SP - 1 EP - 7 PB - IEEE CY - Piscataway, NJ ER - TY - GEN A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Sgarciu, Smaranda A1 - Bernecker, Maximilian A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Grok It and Use It: Teaching Energy Systems Modeling T2 - SSRN eLibrary N2 - This article details our experience developing and teaching an “Energy Systems Modeling” course, which sought to introduce graduate-level students to operations research, energy economics, and system modeling using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). In this paper, we focus on (i) the mathematical problems discussed in the course, (ii) the energy-related empirical interpretations of these mathematical problems, and (iii) the best teaching practices (i.e., our experiences regarding how to make the content interesting and accessible for students). KW - Energy Systems KW - Mathematical Programming KW - Optimization KW - Teaching Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4320978 SN - 1556-5068 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Watermeyer, Mira A1 - Möbius, Thomas A1 - Grothe, Oliver A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling T2 - arXiv N2 - The accurate prediction of short-term electricity prices is vital for effective trading strategies, power plant scheduling, profit maximisation and efficient system operation. However, uncertainties in supply and demand make such predictions challenging. We propose a hybrid model that combines a techno-economic energy system model with stochastic models to address this challenge. The techno-economic model in our hybrid approach provides a deep understanding of the market. It captures the underlying factors and their impacts on electricity prices, which is impossible with statistical models alone. The statistical models incorporate non-techno-economic aspects, such as the expectations and speculative behaviour of market participants, through the interpretation of prices. The hybrid model generates both conventional point predictions and probabilistic forecasts, providing a comprehensive understanding of the market landscape. Probabilistic forecasts are particularly valuable because they account for market uncertainty, facilitating informed decision-making and risk management. Our model delivers state-of-the-art results, helping market participants to make informed decisions and operate their systems more efficiently. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2304.09336 SP - 1 EP - 38 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Ockenfels, Axel T1 - Design von Informationsfeedback in Regelenergiemärkten T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft N2 - Auf vielen kontinentaleuropäischen Energiemärkten werden derzeit die Regeln für das Feedback auf Regelenergiemärkten diskutiert: welche Informationen zu vergangenen Auktionen sollen wann veröffentlicht werden? Dieser Artikel beleuchtet Vor- und Nachteile verschiedener Feedbackpolitiken am Beispiel der Schweizer Regelenergiemärkte. Die Veröffentlichung des Grenzleistungspreises ist in der Regel zu empfehlen. Dies gilt jedoch nicht für weitere Informationen (insbesondere extramarginale Gebote). Die optimale Feedbackpolitik hängt allerdings vom jeweiligen Marktdesign und von der Marktstruktur ab KW - Strommärkte KW - Regelenergie KW - Marktdesign Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-011-0062-0 SN - 1866-2765 VL - 35 IS - 4 SP - 249 EP - 256 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreuz, Sebastian A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Asymmetric Diesel Retail Pricing Strategies: Depending on Brands and Population Densities? T2 - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft KW - Diesel price KW - Error correction model KW - Oil price KW - Retail fuel KW - Rockets and feathers KW - Spatial analysis Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-019-00252-x SN - 0343-5377 SN - 1866-2765 VL - 43 IS - 2 SP - 117 EP - 130 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Engelhorn, Thorsten A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Why is Germany’s energy transition so expensive? Quantifying costs from wind energy decentralisation KW - costs from wind energy KW - germany’s energy transition KW - wind power KW - energy policy KW - support scheme KW - market design KW - cost minimisation KW - efficiency Y1 - 2019 UR - https://www.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/publikationen/publikationsliste PB - Brandenburgische Technische Universität CY - Cottbus ; Senftenberg ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Seasonal Flexibility in the European Natural Gas Market KW - European gas market KW - market modelling KW - seasonality Y1 - 2019 UR - https://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/eprg-working-paper-1931/ PB - University of Cambridge, Energy Policy Research Group CY - Cambridge ER - TY - THES A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - The Economics of Wholesale Electricity Markets N2 - Die Dissertation analysiert die ökonomischen Zusammenhänge und Wechselwirkungen auf Großhandelsmärkten für Strom. KW - Energy Economics KW - Electricity Price KW - Competitive Benchmarking KW - Optimization Model KW - Market Power Y1 - 2005 PB - Universität CY - Köln ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Neuhoff, Karsten T1 - Modelling Dynamic Constraints in Electricity Markets and the Costs of Uncertain Wind Output Y1 - 2006 UR - https://www.eprg.group.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/eprg0514.pdf PB - University of Cambridge, Electricity Policy Research Group CY - Cambridge ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Müsgens, Felix A1 - Riepin, Iegor A1 - Poudineh, Rahmat T1 - A Note on Climate Policy Negotiations at the Threshold of COP-21 in Paris KW - climate change KW - global warming KW - carbon price KW - cap-and-trade Y1 - 2015 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-energiewirtschaft/public/Veroeffentlichungen/A_Note_on_Climate_Policy_Negotiations.pdf ER -