TY - GEN A1 - Walter, Andreas A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Knoche, Richard A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Kotlarski, Sven A1 - Müller-Westermeier, Gerhard A1 - Rechid, Diana A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried T1 - A high resolution reference data set of german wind velocity 1951-2001 and comparison with regional climate model results T2 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift Y1 - 2006 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0162 SN - 1610-1227 VL - 15 IS - 6 SP - 585 EP - 596 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kotlarski, Sven A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Böhm, Ursula A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Knoche, Richard A1 - Rechid, Diana A1 - Walter, Artur T1 - Regional Climate Model Simulations as Input for Hydrological Applications: Evaluation of Uncertainties T2 - Advances in Geoscience Y1 - 2005 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-5-119-2005 IS - 5 SP - 119 EP - 125 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Rechid, Diana A1 - Kotova, Lola A1 - Kotlarski, Sven A1 - Heimann, Dietrich A1 - Zemsch, Maria A1 - Knoche, Richard A1 - Dittmann, Ernst A1 - Walter, Andreas A1 - Berger, Franz A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - QUIRCS: Quantification of uncertainties in regional climate and climate change simulations. German Climate Research Programme (2001-2006), Final Symposium 2005 N2 - The comparison of multi model runs of the reference period 1979-1993 with different observational data sets for several climate parameters enables the quantification of the model uncertainties in representing present-day climate conditions for Central Europe. The quantification is based on a number of objective distance measures which detect differences in the spatial and temporal structures of the data sets being compared. Additional climate change simulations of two 30-year periods (control and scenario simulation) are performed for the SRES B2 global change scenario. They indicate a severe warming for Germany with values of up to 4 K in summer which is much higher than the quantified uncertainty range of the regional models for this climate parameter. For precipitation in Germany, a weak reduction during the summer months is overcompensated by an increase in winter and fall. However, the simulated changes are smaller than the quantified uncertainty range for the regional models so that in particular a significant reduction of the annual precipitation in Germany cannot be stated on basis of the current simulations for the B2 scenario. Aim of the research in the context of DEKLIM A reliable assessment of possible future climate developments requires an improved understanding of climate and its variability as well as a detailed knowledge of the uncertainties of climate simulations which provide the requested information about the potential degree of future changes. The project QUIRCS focuses on the climate patterns of Central Europe and investigates the quality of currently used regional climate models and regionalization techniques by a model inter-comparison, a substantial model evaluation, additional sensitivity studies and an extensive analysis of climate data. The major scientific aims are • to quantify the uncertainties of regional climate simulations and of observed climate data, • to provide a regional climate change scenario for Europe with a particular focus on Germany, • to assess the reliability of the produced climate change signals with respect to the Collapse. KW - regional climate simulation KW - model evaluation KW - uncertainty KW - climate change KW - climate data Y1 - 2005 UR - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.596.557&rep=rep1&type=pdf PB - DLR CY - Bonn ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Keuler, Klaus A1 - Block, Alexander A1 - Ahrens, Wilfried A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Rechid, Diana A1 - Kotova, Lola A1 - Kotlarski, Sven A1 - Heimann, Dietrich A1 - Zemsch, Maria A1 - Knoche, Richard A1 - Dittmann, Ernst A1 - Walter, Andreas A1 - Berger, Franz A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - Quantifizierung von Ungenauigkeiten regionaler Klima- und Klimaänderungssimulationen (QUIRCS). Zusammenfassung der wesentlichen Ergebnisse eines Projektes des deutschen Klimaforschungsprogramms DEKLIM N2 - Das Projekt QUIRCS (“Quantification of Uncertainties in Regional Climate and Climate-Change Simulations“) ist eines von insgesamt37Verbundforschungsprojekten, die im Rahmen des Deutschen Klimaforschungsprogramms DEKLIM vom BMBF als Beitrag zum Teilbereich „Klima-forschung und Vorhersagbarkeit“ gefördert worden sind [DEKLIM, 2005]. Unter der Koordination des Lehrstuhls Umweltmeteorologie der Brandenburgischen Technischen Universität (BTU) Cottbus waren 6 Institutionen mit insgesamt 13 Mitarbeitern über 4 Jahre an der Durchführung des Projektes beteiligt. Der vorliegende Bericht gibt einen Überblick über die verschiedenen Aufgabenstellungen und fasst die wesentlichen Ergebnisse des Projektes zusammen. Y1 - 2006 UR - https://www-docs.b-tu.de/fg-meteorologie/public/publikationen/quircs_abschlussbericht.pdf ER - TY - GEN A1 - Davin, Edouard A1 - Rechid, Diana A1 - Breil, Marcus A1 - Cardoso, Rita M. A1 - Coppola, Erika A1 - Hoffmann, Peter A1 - Jach, Lisa L. A1 - Katragkou, Eleni A1 - Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie de A1 - Radtke, Kai A1 - Raffa, Mario A1 - Soares, Pedro A1 - Sofiadis, Giannis A1 - Strada, Susanna A1 - Strandberg, Gustav A1 - Tölle, Merja H. A1 - Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten A1 - Wulfmeyer, Volker T1 - Biogeophysical impacts of deforestation in Europe First results from the LUCAS Regional Climate Mode intercomparison T2 - Earth System Dynamics N2 - The Land Use and Climate Across Scales Flagship Pilot Study (LUCAS FPS) is a coordinated community effort to improve the integration of land use change (LUC) in regional climate models (RCMs) and to quantify the biogeophysical effects of LUC on local to regional climate in Europe. In the first phase of LUCAS, nine RCMs are used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of re-/afforestation over Europe: two idealized experiments representing respectively a non-forested and a maximally forested Europe are compared in order to quantify spatial and temporal variations in the regional climate sensitivity to forestation. We find some robust features in the simulated response to forestation. In particular, all models indicate a year-round decrease in surface albedo, which is most pronounced in winter and spring at high latitudes. This results in a winter warming effect, with values ranging from +0.2 to +1 K on average over Scandinavia depending on models. However, there are also a number of strongly diverging responses. For instance, there is no agreement on the sign of temperature changes in summer with some RCMs predicting a widespread cooling from forestation (well below −2 K in most regions), a widespread warming (around +2 K or above in most regions) or a mixed response. A large part of the inter-model spread is attributed to the representation of land processes. In particular, differences in the partitioning of sensible and latent heat are identified as a key source of uncertainty in summer. Atmospheric processes, such as changes in incoming radiation due to cloud cover feedbacks, also influence the simulated response in most seasons. In conclusion, the multi-model approach we use here has the potential to deliver more robust and reliable information to stakeholders involved in land use planning, as compared to results based on single models. However, given the contradictory responses identified, our results also show that there are still fundamental uncertainties that need to be tackled to better anticipate the possible intended or unintended consequences of LUC on regional climates. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020 SN - 2190-4995 VL - 11 IS - 1 SP - 183 EP - 200 ER -