TY - GEN A1 - Ben Amor, Souhir A1 - Sgarciu, Smaranda A1 - Batz Lineiro, Taimyra BatzLineiro A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Advanced models for hourly marginal CO2 emission factor estimation : a synergy between fundamental and statistical approaches T2 - Applied energy N2 - Global warming is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions is thus an energy policy priority. A metric to quantify the change in CO2 emissions is the marginal emission factor. Marginal emission factors are needed for various purposes, for example to analyze the emission impact of electric vehicle charging. This paper presents two methodologies to estimate the marginal emission factor in electricity systems with high temporal resolution. The first is an energy systems model that incrementally calculates the marginal emission factors. This calculation is computationally intensive when the time resolution is high, but is very accurate because it considers relevant market factors on both the supply and demand sides and emulates the electricity market dynamics. The second is a Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model, a statistical model designed to estimate marginal emission factors faster, and it is benchmarked against the dynamic linear regression model widely used in the marginal emission factor estimation literature. For the German electricity market, we estimate the marginal emission factor time series both historically (2019, 2020) using Agora Energiewende and for the future (2025, 2030, and 2040) using estimated energy system data. The results indicate that the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model outperforms benchmark models. Hence, the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model is a simpler alternative to the computationally intensive incremental marginal emission factor, especially when short-term marginal emission factor estimation is needed. The results of the marginal emission factor estimation are applied to an exemplary low-emission vehicle charging scenario to estimate CO2 savings by shifting the charge hours to those corresponding to the lower marginal emission factor. We implemented the emission-minimized charging approach using both marginal emission factors. Over a 5-year period, the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression model appears to save 47.9 % of emissions on average, compared to 6.5 % real-world saving. The maximal value possible with incremental MEFs would be 37.6 %. KW - Marginal emission factor KW - Energy system model KW - CO2 emissions KW - Electricity generation KW - Markov switching dynamic regression model KW - Emission-minimized vehicle charging Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126265 SN - 1872-9118 VL - 397 SP - 1 EP - 25 PB - Elsevier BV CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - A first analysis of the photovoltaic auction program in Germany T2 - 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) KW - photovoltaic auction program KW - Auction KW - Competition KW - Germany KW - Photovoltaics KW - Project completion KW - Renewable energy Y1 - 2019 SN - 978-1-7281-1257-2 SN - 978-1-7281-1256-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2019.8916472 SN - 2165-4093 SN - 2165-4077 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Evaluating the German PV auction program: The secrets of individual bids revealed T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Auctions have become the primary instrument for promoting renewable energy around the world. However, the data published on such auctions are typically limited to aggregated information (e.g., total awarded capacity, average payments). These data constraints hinder the evaluation of realisation rates and other relevant auction dynamics. In this study, we present an algorithm to overcome these data limitations in German renewable energy auction programme by combining publicly available information from four different databases. We apply it to the German solar auction programme and evaluate auctions using quantitative methods. We calculate realisation rates and—using correlation and regression analysis—explore the impact of PV module prices, competition, and project and developer characteristics on project realisation and bid values. Our results confirm that the German auctions were effective. We also found that project realisation took, on average, 1.5 years (with 28% of projects finished late and incurring a financial penalty), nearly half of projects changed location before completion (again, incurring a financial penalty) and small and inexperienced developers could successfully participate in auctions. KW - Energy markets and pricing Y1 - 2021 UR - https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421521004845 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112618 SN - 0301-4215 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Evaluating the German onshore wind auction programme: An analysis based on individual bids T2 - Energy Policy N2 - Auctions are a highly demanded policy instrument for the promotion of renewable energy sources. Their flexible structure makes them adaptable to country-specific conditions and needs. However, their success depends greatly on how those needs are operationalised in the design elements. Disaggregating data from the German onshore wind auction programme into individual projects, we evaluated the contribution of auctions to the achievement of their primary (deployment at competitive prices) and secondary (diversity) objectives and have highlighted design elements that affect the policy's success or failure. We have shown that, in the German case, the auction scheme is unable to promote wind deployment at competitive prices, and that the design elements used to promote the secondary objectives not only fall short at achieving their intended goals, but create incentives for large actors to game the system. KW - Renewable energy KW - Auction KW - Wind KW - Onshore KW - Community energy KW - companies KW - Germany Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113317 SN - 1873-6777 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 172 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoffmann, Christin A1 - Jalbout, Eddy A1 - Villanueva, Monica A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Positive and Negative Externalities from Renewable and Conventional Power Plants in the Backyard: The Value of Participation T2 - SSRN eLibrary N2 - We quantify the net external effects of conventional and renewable electricity generators by analyzing housing prices in their vicinity. Using a Differences-in-Differences approach, we find that (1) wind turbines reduce prices significantly, (2) solar fields have no significant impact, and (3) conventional plants over 1 km away show positive net effects. We set out to explain this result by disentangling the positive local external effects of energy generation, which we measure in terms of local purchasing power and tax revenues. Our results show that the commissioning of conventional power stations results in a significant increase in both purchasing power and business tax income in the vicinity. We thus conclude that significant financial participation of the local public in the development of renewable energy projects, especially wind turbines, could be key to increasing their acceptance and accelerating their expansion. KW - Renewable energy KW - Conventional power plants KW - Hedonic valuation KW - Difference-in-Differences KW - Wind turbines KW - Solar fields KW - Financial participation KW - Acceptance Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4203184 SN - 1556-5068 SP - 1 EP - 33 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra A1 - Müsgens, Felix T1 - Pay-back time : increasing electricity prices and decreasing costs make renewable energy competitive T2 - Energy policy N2 - The global energy transition needs a large-scale rollout of electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES). Leading nations such as Spain, Japan, and Germany have invested early and substantially in RES. This leadership has been associated with high expenditures, but the trend is reversing as RES become more competitive. First, levelized costs of electricity for RES have decreased significantly and second, wholesale prices for electricity have increased, due to more ambitious climate protection and rising fuel prices. Despite favorable developments indicating a decline in the financial support needed for renewable deployment—and the fact that many countries still need to significantly increase their renewable capacities to meet climate objectives—renewable support has once again come under criticism. This paper demonstrates that cost-related criticism and concern is often unwarranted. By quantifying the aggregated subsidies of all RES units in Germany, which arguably are among the highest in the world, our findings reveal that: i) the net support costs of RES have been high in the past, ii) most net subsidies have already been paid and iii) newer installations of wind offshore, wind onshore and ground mounted PV are economically profitable. In addition, we show that wind onshore has been the most cost-efficient technology over time and explore the remarkable evolution of solar technologies, transitioning from one of the costliest to one of the most cost-effective options. KW - Energy transition KW - Renewable energy KW - RES act KW - Germany Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114523 SN - 1873-6777 VL - 199 SP - 1 EP - 14 PB - Elsevier BV CY - Amsterdam ER -