@misc{DonmezSahingozPauletal., author = {Donmez, Cenk and Sahingoz, Merve and Paul, Carsten and Cilek, Ahmet and Hoffmann, Carsten and Berberoglu, Suha and Webber, Heidi and Helming, Katharina}, title = {Climate change causes spatial shifts in the productivity of agricultural long-term field experiments}, series = {European Journal of Agronomy}, volume = {155}, journal = {European Journal of Agronomy}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, issn = {1161-0301}, doi = {10.1016/j.eja.2024.127121}, pages = {16}, abstract = {Long-term field experiments (LTE) are highly valuable infrastructures in agricultural- and soil sciences for understanding the long-term impacts of climate and management practices. While they are designed to run under constant conditions, climate change is expected to affect site conditions considerably. This needs to be quantified when interpreting experimental results and when redesigning the experimental setup. One way to achieve this is by utilizing vegetation growth and carbon dynamics, specifically the Net Primary Productivity (NPP), as a spatially explicit indicator. NPP facilitates the assessment and interpretation of yield performance in LTEs under future climatic conditions. Our study estimated the changes in NPP for 271 LTE sites in Germany, comparing a baseline (2000-2020) with two scenarios (2081-2100) that were based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP245) and SSP585) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We used the NASA-CASA biogeochemical model to calculate NPP in baseline and IPCC scenarios using Germany as a test case. LTEs were grouped by land use (crop types) and soil information (soil type, texture), drawing on the geodata infrastructure "BonaRes Repository". The total annual terrestrial NPP for the baseline was calculated as 202.4 Mt C (sum of forests, grasslands, and arable lands) in Germany, while total NPP was up to 56.0 Mt C for different land use types. For both scenarios, NPP was projected to increase in LTEs located in southern Germany, indicating increased crop productivity, while a decrease was projected for the central Germany. The decrease in NPP of numerous LTEs in central Germany was estimated to extend to the LTEs in the eastern part corresponding to the worst-case scenario SSP585. Explicitly, the use of the multi-model ensemble mean as the climate driver in modelling may overestimate projected NPP by reducing inter-annual variability, highlighting the importance of methodological choices for accurate future projections. Besides, the results indicated that poor soils are projected to experience a further decline in productivity, primarily attributed to escalating water scarcity. Conversely, soils with high quality are likely to witness enhanced productivity, largely driven by the extension of the growing seasons. The outcomes of this study provide a basis for considering the future conditions of German LTEs and facilitate distinguishing between the effects of climate change and the impact of agricultural management on productivity at the regional level. These outputs enable planning and developing research strategies for selecting future LTE sites and redesigning existing or newly planned experiments. Moreover, the integrated modelling framework presented here highlights the potential of LTE data for large-scale modelling studies of ecosystem functions.}, language = {en} } @misc{FayeMbayeWebberetal., author = {Faye, Babacar and Mbaye, Mamadou Lamine and Webber, Heidi and Dieye, Bounama and Diouf, Di{\´e}gane and Gaye, Amadou Thierno}, title = {Adaptation potential of alternate varieties and fertilization strategies for peanut and maize in Senegal under climate change}, series = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {25}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, address = {Berlin ; Heidelberg ; New York, NY}, issn = {1436-3798}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-025-02491-w}, pages = {1 -- 15}, abstract = {In Senegal, rising temperatures are projected to reduce maize yields due to a shortened growth duration, while elevated CO2 fertilization may increase peanut yields under climate change. However, there is limited evidence on climate change impacts if crop cultivars change and systems intensify, which is expected to occur in parallel with climate change. For climate-adapted agriculture, the performance of improved agronomy and varieties should be evaluated under current and future climate scenarios. This study assesses the impact of climate change on crop yields of two varieties of peanut and maize at each under current and intensified fertilization. Simulations were performed for mid-century (2045-2074) and end-century (2070-2099) relative to a baseline (1981-2010) using the SIMPLACE modeling framework at 0.5° resolution. Climate projections from nine global climate models (GCMs) were used under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Soil data was derived from the Harmonized World Soil Database. The results indicate that the impacts of climate change on crop yields differed by crop. Peanut showed an increase in yield of up to 45\% and a decrease for maize of up to 25\% by the end of the century. Peanut yield gains were higher under the intensification fertilization case compared to the current fertilization case, whereas for maize, losses were high in the intensification case. Furthermore, yield losses are more substantial in the southern and western parts of the country for both crops. Additionally, for maize, yield losses were higher for the short cycle variety than the long cycle variety; there was little difference between varieties for peanut.}, language = {en} }