@misc{GeorgeWernerPreussetal., author = {George, Jan Frederick and Werner, Simon and Preuß, Sabine and Winkler, Jenny and Held, Anne and Ragwitz, Mario}, title = {The landlord-tenant dilemma: Distributional effects of carbon prices, redistribution and building modernisation policies in the German heating transition}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {339}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {0306-2619}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.120783}, pages = {1 -- 11}, abstract = {A carbon price on heating fuels aims to reduce the use of fossil energy in the heating sector. However, it has a greater effect on tenants than on landlords. The heating transition requires adequate building insulation for efficient use of low-temperature technologies. To encourage this particular kind of investment, German landlords are given the option to apply a modernisation levy of up to 8\% on top of rents. Similar to carbon pricing, rent increases cause distributional effects. The net effect of these measures on tenants has not been analysed so far. Using a micro-simulation integrating representative empirical data on tenant households in Germany from KOSMA and the detailed building database TABULA, we analyse direct distributional effects of a carbon price (€55/t and €250/t), a per-capita redistribution of carbon price revenues and the modernisation levy (8\% and 2\% rent increases). The analysis shows that carbon prices and modernisation levies have strong regressive effects. These can be mitigated by the per-capita redistribution. However, the effect on tenants within a given income decile varies largely due to the diversity of buildings. Thus, when designing and evaluating policies, looking at average effects is not sufficient to assess economic impacts for individual households.}, language = {en} } @misc{BillerbeckBreitschopfPreussetal., author = {Billerbeck, Anna and Breitschopf, Barbara and Preuß, Sabine and Winkler, Jenny and Ragwitz, Mario and Keles, Dogan}, title = {Perception of district heating in Europe: A deep dive into influencing factors and the role of regulation}, series = {Energy Policy}, volume = {184}, journal = {Energy Policy}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113860}, pages = {1 -- 17}, abstract = {To increase the deployment of district heating in line with European targets, there is a need to understand consumer perceptions and the role of regulations. Therefore, this paper focuses on consumer perceptions of district heating and analyses the influencing factors. The analysis uses data from an online survey with 4388 participants from nine European countries. In particular, the paper discusses the impact of socio-demographic factors, attitudes and regulations on the perception of district heating. Statistical analyses show that re-spondents from Denmark and Sweden have the most positive perception, while respondents from Lithuania and the Netherlands have a less positive perception of district heating. In addition, the results indicate that re-spondents from countries with no mandatory connection, liberalised price regulation and mainly public ownership seem to have a more positive perception of district heating, higher satisfaction when using district heating and a more positive rating of their heating price than those from countries with mandatory connection, regulated prices and a more mixed ownership structure. Overall, the paper provides a first overview of possible factors influencing the perception of district heating and indicates that the mix of appropriate regulations and, in particular, their combined impact, could play an important role in perception.}, language = {en} } @misc{RagwitzBillerbeckBernathetal., author = {Ragwitz, Mario and Billerbeck, Anna and Bernath, Christiane and Manz, Pia and Deac, Gerda and Held, Anne and Winkler, Jenny and K{\"o}k, Ali}, title = {Integrating district heating potentials into European energy system modelling : an assessment of cost advantages of renewable and excess heat}, series = {Smart Energy}, volume = {15}, journal = {Smart Energy}, publisher = {Elsevier}, doi = {10.1016/j.segy.2024.100150}, pages = {1 -- 13}, abstract = {This paper takes a novel modelling approach by considering high spatial resolution heat generation potentials for district heating and integrating them into a European energy system model. Subsequently, a modelling analysis of an integrated energy system including district heating, electricity and hydrogen supply for 25 EU Member States and the year 2050 is carried out. In contrast to existing approaches, the modelling approach captures the heterogeneous resource availability in district heating. The results show multivalent district heating networks based on a wide range of renewable and excess heat sources used directly or in combination with large-scale heat pumps. The high spatial resolution of the heat generation potentials allows a detailed cost comparison of different possible future technology mixes in district heating. The paper finds that the use of heat pumps, geothermal energy and industrial excess heat offer slight cost advantages for the energy system as a whole. Geothermal heat can also provide cost advantages for district heating generation.}, language = {en} } @misc{GeorgeHeldWinkleretal., author = {George, Jan Frederick and Held, Anne and Winkler, Jenny and Eichhammer, Wolfgang and Ragwitz, Mario}, title = {Unveiling the cost competitiveness of sector coupling technologies : policy impacts on levelised costs of heat pumps and battery electric vehicles in Germany}, series = {Smart Energy}, volume = {15}, journal = {Smart Energy}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, issn = {2666-9552}, doi = {10.1016/j.segy.2024.100149}, pages = {1 -- 15}, abstract = {Heat pumps and battery electric vehicles play a crucial role in achieving a climate-neutral economy and integrating the Energy Efficiency First Principle into the building and transport sectors, rendering the overall energy system more efficient. To achieve cost competitiveness of these new technologies compared to conventional ones, investments, operating costs and conversion efficiencies are important. We conducted micro-simulations of the development of levelised cost of heat and transport for these sector coupling technologies to assess the direct cost impact of these parameters. With a broad and in-depth analysis of economies of scale, we determine future bandwidths of investment development. Based on this data, we compared implications of two policy scenarios of taxes and levies on final energy prices using a German case study. The first scenario considers recently adjusted taxes and levies: the national emissions trading system in 2021 and the abolishment of the electricity levy to finance renewable energy support in 2022. A counterfactual scenario includes previous framework conditions. Our results show that rising carbon and lower electricity prices already economically favour heat pumps from 2020 onwards. In contrast, taxes and levies do not decisively impact the cost competitiveness of battery electric vehicles, but expected reductions in manufacturing cost do.}, language = {en} } @misc{BillerbeckKieferWinkleretal., author = {Billerbeck, Anna and Kiefer, Christoph P. and Winkler, Jenny and Bernath, Christiane and Sensfuß, Frank and Kranzl, Lukas and M{\"u}ller, Andreas and Ragwitz, Mario}, title = {The race between hydrogen and heat pumps for space and water heating: A model-based scenario analysis}, series = {Energy Conversion and Management}, volume = {299}, journal = {Energy Conversion and Management}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, issn = {0196-8904}, doi = {10.1016/j.enconman.2023.117850}, pages = {19}, abstract = {This paper analyses different levels and means of the electrification of space and hot water heating using an explorative modelling approach. The analysis provides guidance to the ongoing discussion on favourable pathways for heating buildings and the role of secondary energy carriers such as hydrogen or synthetic fuels. In total, 12 different scenarios were modelled with decarbonisation pathways until 2050, which cover all 27 member states of the European Union. Two highly detailed optimisation models were combined to cover the building stock and the upstream energy supply sector. The analysis shows that decarbonisation pathways for space and water heating based on large shares of heat pumps have at least 11\% lower system costs in 2050 than pathways with large shares of hydrogen or synthetic fuels. This translates into system cost savings of around €70 bn. Heat pumps are cost-efficient in decentralised systems and in centralised district heating systems. Hence, heat pumps should be the favoured option to achieve a cost-optimal solution for heating buildings. Accordingly, the paper makes a novel and significant contribution to understanding suitable and cost-efficient decarbonisation pathways for space and hot water heating via electrification. The results of the paper can provide robust guidance for policymakers.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GeorgeMarxHeldetal., author = {George, Jan Frederick and Marx, Alexander and Held, Anne and Winkler, Jenny and Bekk, Anke and Ragwitz, Mario}, title = {Balancing the books: unveiling the direct impact of an integrated energy system model on industries, households and government revenues}, series = {Energy, Sustainability and Society}, volume = {14 (2024)}, journal = {Energy, Sustainability and Society}, publisher = {Springer}, doi = {10.1186/s13705-024-00450-7}, pages = {29}, abstract = {Background The transition towards a sustainable energy system is reshaping the demand for final energy, driven by the diffusion of new end-use technologies. This shift not only impacts consumers' energy expenses, but also holds implications for the public budget. Building on data from a German energy transition scenario, we analyse the direct impact of energy costs on industries, low-income households, and changes in government revenues from the taxes and levies on final energy carriers. Our analysis considers the impact of current policies and explores a scenario introducing additional excise tax rates to offset potential revenue losses. Results We found that substantial carbon price increases could generate revenues that offset the losses from excise taxes on fossil fuels while enabling the financing of renewable support from the public budget by the end of this decade. Nevertheless, a decline in government revenues from taxes and levies is anticipated after 2030 until the middle of the century due to the declining use of fossil fuels. Maintaining current excise tax revenues during the transition could be achieved by introducing additional excise taxes on fossil fuels and electricity. Lastly, our analysis indicated a continuous decline in household energy expenditures until 2050, whereas energy-intensive industries face adverse impacts due to decarbonisation. Conclusions This research provides valuable insights into the fiscal implications of the energy transition, shedding light on different industrial sectors and households while considering the evolving impact on the public budget. Policymakers may need to consider systemic reforms or alternative financing mechanisms outside the energy system to balance the books.}, language = {en} }