@inproceedings{MuesgensLienert, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Lienert, Martin}, title = {Political Shocks and Efficient Investment in Electricity Markets}, series = {European Energy Market (EEM), 2012 9th International Conference on the}, booktitle = {European Energy Market (EEM), 2012 9th International Conference on the}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-4673-0834-2}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2012.6491508}, pages = {1 -- 9}, abstract = {This paper presents a fundamental electricity market model capturing many essential features of investments in electricity markets - fuel price developments, investment and generation costs, demand and dynamic effects such as start-up costs and (pump) storage dispatch. The partial equilibrium model minimizes the total costs of the electricity system ensuring demand coverage. The model optimizes both long-run investment as well as short-run dispatch decisions. From the optimal solution, the optimal future generation technology mix and dispatch can be derived. Furthermore, using the concept of shadow prices in mathematical programming, we calculate electricity price predictions. The model is applied to analyze the effect of recent political shocks in German nuclear energy policy on the electricity market and the power plant portfolio. The effect is quantified using the example of a specific combined cycle gas turbine project. We find a significant impact on the future net revenues.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{BartelsMuesgens, author = {Bartels, Michael and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Do Technology Specific CO2-Allocations Distort Investments?}, series = {Securing energy in insecure times, 29th IAEE International Conference, 7-10 June 2006 in Potsdam}, booktitle = {Securing energy in insecure times, 29th IAEE International Conference, 7-10 June 2006 in Potsdam}, publisher = {IAEE}, address = {Cleveland}, pages = {367 -- 374}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{KreuzbergerMuesgens, author = {Kreuzberger, M. and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Der Einfluss der Speicherkrafftwerke in der Alpenregion auf die Strompreise in Deutschland}, series = {2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001 Wien}, booktitle = {2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001 Wien}, publisher = {Institut f{\"u}r Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft}, address = {Wien}, language = {de} } @inproceedings{ScholzMuesgens, author = {Scholz, Daniel and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Increasing flexibility of combined heat and power plants with Power-to-Heat}, series = {Proceedings, 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lisbon, 19-22 May 2015}, booktitle = {Proceedings, 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lisbon, 19-22 May 2015}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-4673-6692-2}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2015.7216771}, pages = {5}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MoebiusMuesgens, author = {M{\"o}bius, Thomas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {The Effect of Variable Renewable Energy Sources on the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Prices - A Stylized Full Cost Approach}, series = {Proceedings, 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lisbon, 19-22 May 2015}, booktitle = {Proceedings, 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lisbon, 19-22 May 2015}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-4673-6692-2}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2015.7216772}, pages = {5}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Asymmetries in the German Diesel Retail Market}, series = {IEEE Conference Proceeding EEM 2016}, booktitle = {IEEE Conference Proceeding EEM 2016}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5090-1298-5}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2016.7521192}, pages = {5}, abstract = {Economists often analyze asymmetric cost passthrough between retail fuel prices and oil prices ('Rockets and Feathers') as a proxy for market power. Such symmetries have been analyzed for different countries and time periods. However, few studies have been conducted for the German market. Furthermore, no study has differentiated between company types in this context. In this paper, we analyze market behavior in the German diesel market. We compare the pricing strategies of independent petrol stations with the general diesel market. Independent petrol stations have no connection with popular fuel brands and therefore might decrease market power of dominating brand stations. We use an error correction model for the period from 2011 to 2012 to evaluate the specific market behavior. We conclude that asymmetric pricing behavior is given for independent petrol stations as well as for the whole German market.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{KaesoMuesgensGrothe, author = {K{\"a}so, Mathias and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Grothe, Oliver}, title = {Dynamic Forecast Combinations of Improved Individual Forecasts for the Prediction of Wind Energy}, series = {IEEE Conference Proceedings EEM 2016}, booktitle = {IEEE Conference Proceedings EEM 2016}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5090-1298-5}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2016.7521228}, pages = {5}, abstract = {We study the prediction performance of different improved individual wind energy forecasts in various static and dynamic ombination processes. To this end, we develop a combined error minimization model (CEMM) based on nonlinear functions. This approach reflects the nonlinear nature of weather and especially of wind energy prediction problems. Based on the model, we construct significantly improved individual forecasts. The corresponding time dependent model coefficients are determined by dynamic OLS (ordinary least squares) regression and Kalman filter methods. The former method shows a slightly better performance than the Kalman filter based approaches. Further improvements can be achieved by a combination of these improved wind energy forecasts. In this case, the combination coefficients are calculated from a static and two dynamic OLS regressions. The resulting forecasts are characterized by a further increased prediction accuracy compared to the combination of the uncorrected forecast data and can outperform a given benchmark.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{Muesgens, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Roads to Transition in German Energy Policy}, series = {The road to Paris \& multi-level carbon pricing: Getting the incentives right at the global, European \& national level}, booktitle = {The road to Paris \& multi-level carbon pricing: Getting the incentives right at the global, European \& national level}, publisher = {Potsdam-Institut f{\"u}r Klimafolgenforschung}, address = {Potsdam, Cottbus}, pages = {46 -- 57}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{ScholzMuesgens, author = {Scholz, Daniel and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {How to improve standard load profiles: Updating, regionalization and smart meter data}, series = {14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017}, booktitle = {14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5090-5499-2}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2017.7981939}, pages = {6}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MoebiusMuesgens, author = {M{\"o}bius, Thomas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Electricity Market Equilibria and Intermittent Renewables - A Stochastic Approach}, series = {14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017}, booktitle = {14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Dresden Germany, 6-9 June 2017}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5090-5499-2}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2017.7981988}, pages = {5}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{KreuzbergMuesgens, author = {Kreuzberg, Martin and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Der Einfluss der Speicherkraftwerke in der Alpenregion auf die Strompreise in Deutschland - Eine modellgest{\"u}tzte Analyse}, series = {2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001, 21. bis 23. Februar 2001, Wien}, booktitle = {2. Internationale Energiewirtschaftstagung, IEWT 2001, 21. bis 23. Februar 2001, Wien}, publisher = {Institut f{\"u}r Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft}, address = {Wien}, language = {de} } @inproceedings{RiepinMoebiusMuesgens, author = {Riepin, Iegor and M{\"o}bius, Thomas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Integrated Electricity and Gas Market Modeling - Effects of Gas Demand Uncertainty}, series = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, booktitle = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5386-1488-4}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2018.8469790}, pages = {5}, abstract = {This paper develops an integrated fundamental investment model which considers both the gas and electricity sector. Furthermore, we adopt the theory of stochastic programming with recourse in the combined model to account for uncertainty in the gas market. This approach enables us to analyze how uncertain gas demand in other sectors affects decisions to invest in electricity generation capacities. We find an overall decrease and a reallocation of investments in gas-fired power plants. We also quantify the expected costs of ignoring uncertainty.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MuesgensRiepin, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Riepin, Iegor}, title = {Is Offshore Already Competitive? Analyzing German Offshore Wind Auctions}, series = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, booktitle = {15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 27-29 June 2018, Lodz, Poland}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-5386-1488-4}, doi = {10.1109/EEM.2018.8469851}, pages = {6}, abstract = {Two German offshore wind auctions in 2017 and 2018 saw more than 50\% of winning capacity with "zero bids". The nature of these surprisingly low bids is, however, not yet clear. In our paper, we discuss four hypotheses for possible causes for the auction results: (i) the bids are expected to be profitable due to market development and technological progress, (ii) bids can be perceived as "options to build" that can be realized if projects are profitable, (iii) bids are adjusted to secure grid access, and (iv) other long term reasons not primarily driven by the profitability of the winning bids. Our results suggest that there is evidence for all hypotheses to influence the decision making of auction bidders. In fact, we suggest to see the four hypothesis as cumulative value components, which reveal the true value of winning the auction at "zero cost" in aggregate.}, language = {en} }