@incollection{KochKaltofenKadenetal., author = {Koch, Hagen and Kaltofen, Michael and Kaden, Stephan and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Wasserverf{\"u}gbarkeit im tschechischen Elbegebiet}, series = {Die Elbe im globalen Wandel : eine integrative Betrachtung}, booktitle = {Die Elbe im globalen Wandel : eine integrative Betrachtung}, editor = {Wechsung, Frank and Hartje, Volkmar and Kaden, Stephan and Venohr, Markus and Hansj{\"u}rgens, Bernd and Gr{\"a}fe, Peggy}, publisher = {Weißensee Verlag}, address = {Berlin}, isbn = {978-3-89998-213-8}, pages = {405 -- 420}, language = {de} } @misc{KochVoegeleKaltofenetal., author = {Koch, Hagen and V{\"o}gele, Stefan and Kaltofen, Michael and Grossmann, M. and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Security of Water Supply and Electricity Production: Aspects of Integrated Management}, series = {Water Resources Management}, volume = {28}, journal = {Water Resources Management}, number = {6}, issn = {0920-4741}, doi = {10.1007/s11269-014-0589-z}, pages = {1767 -- 1780}, abstract = {The share of renewable resources in electricity generation, e.g. in Germany, is increasing. The power sector is thus becoming more dependent on climate/weather parameters. During the summer months of the last decade, numerous thermal power plants in Europe had to be throttled due to water shortages and high water temperatures. At the same time, Europe was confronted with a reduction in hydropower production. One method of securing a future electricity supply is to increase the reliability of the water supply for power plants. In this paper, scenarios are presented for future electricity production by hydropower and thermal power plants in the Elbe river basin. Electricity production in hydropower plants will decline by approximately 13 \% by 2050. This decline is due to climate change and it could be compensated for by optimizing and modernizing existing hydropower plants. Due to higher efficiencies and the conversion of plant cooling systems, no water shortages are expected in most thermal power plants. However, water shortages are expected to affect the plants in the city of Berlin. Inter- and intra-basin water transfers constitute a possible adaptation option. While the transfer of water from the river Oder would be the most cost-efficient solution from Berlin's perspective, the transfer of water from the river Elbe would have additional positive effects in the upstream Spree river sub-basin.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{GaedekeKochPohleetal., author = {G{\"a}deke, Anne and Koch, Hagen and Pohle, Ina and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?}, series = {European Geosciences Union (EGU), 11th General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 27 April - 02 May 2014}, booktitle = {European Geosciences Union (EGU), 11th General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 27 April - 02 May 2014}, language = {en} } @incollection{PohleGaedekeKochetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Koch, Hagen and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe and Schramm, Martina and Redetzky, Michael and M{\"u}ller, Fabian and Kaltofen, Michael}, title = {Auswirkungen potenzieller {\"A}nderungen des Klimas und der Braunkohlef{\"o}rderung und -verstromung auf nat{\"u}rliche und bewirtschaftete Abfl{\"u}sse in den Lausitzer Flusseinzugsgebieten}, series = {Wassermanagement im Klimawandel : M{\"o}glichkeiten und Grenzen von Anpassungsmaßnahmen}, booktitle = {Wassermanagement im Klimawandel : M{\"o}glichkeiten und Grenzen von Anpassungsmaßnahmen}, editor = {Kaden, Stephan and Dietrich, O. and Theobald, S.}, publisher = {oekom verlag}, address = {M{\"u}nchen}, isbn = {978-3-86581-480-7}, pages = {121 -- 140}, abstract = {In den Flusseinzugsgebieten von Schwarzer Elster, Dahme, Spree und Lausitzer Neiße wurden die Auswirkungen von klimatischen {\"A}nderungen auf nat{\"u}rliche und bewirtschaftete Abfl{\"u}sse mittels eines Modellensembles aus regionalen Klimamodellen, hydrologischen Modellen und einem Langfristbewirtschaftungsmodell untersucht. F{\"u}r Teileinzugsgebiete wurden unter Nutzung von Klimavariablen der Regionalen Klimamodelle STAR und WettReg mit den hydrologischen Modellen SWIM, EGMO, WaSiM-ETH und HBV-light abnehmende nat{\"u}rliche Abfl{\"u}sse simuliert. Die mit dem Klimaszenario verbundenen Unsicherheiten sind dabei gr{\"o}ßer als jene aufgrund der Wahl des hydrologischen Modells. Die Auswirkungen m{\"o}glicher Entwicklungen der Braunkohlef{\"o}rderung und -verstromung wurden im Sinne eines Szenarios der Entwicklung der Grundwasserabsenkungstrichter mit SWIM simuliert. Diese Auswirkungen sind denen der klimatischen {\"A}nderungen untergeordnet. Die hydrologischen Modelle SWIM und EGMO wurden f{\"u}r die Gesamteinzugsgebiete aufgebaut und parametrisiert. Die mit diesen Modellen unter STAR-Szenarien simulierten nat{\"u}rlichen Abfl{\"u}sse dienten als Eingangsdaten f{\"u}r die Wasserbewirtschaftungsmodellierung mit WBalMo. Aufgrund von abnehmenden nat{\"u}rlichen Abfl{\"u}ssen und unter der Annahme eines Szenarios zur Entwicklung der Braunkohlef{\"o}rderung und -verstromung, bei dem die Fl{\"a}che der Grundwasserabsenkungstrichter, aber auch die S{\"u}mpfungswassermengen zur{\"u}ckgehen, wurden abnehmende bewirtschaftete Abfl{\"u}sse simuliert. Auch bei diesen {\"u}berwiegen im Gesamtjahr die mit den Klimaszenarien verbundenen Unsicherheiten, wobei insbesondere im Jahresverlauf die Ergebnisse mit den hydrologischen Modellen deutlich unterschiedlich sind. Die Studie liefert im Ergebnis eine Bandbreite denkbarer Entwicklungsszenarien, welche als Grundlage f{\"u}r Klimawandelanpassungsmaßnahmen der regionalen Wasserbewirtschaftung dienen k{\"o}nnen.}, language = {de} } @misc{PohleKochGaedekeetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe and Kaltofen, Michael and Schramm, Martina and Redetzky, Michael and M{\"u}ller, Fabian}, title = {Auswirkungen von Unsicherheiten in Klimaszenarien auf die regionale Wassermengenbewirtschaftung}, series = {KW Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft}, volume = {7}, journal = {KW Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft}, number = {6}, issn = {1865-9926}, pages = {350 -- 354}, abstract = {In den Lausitzer Flusseinzugsgebieten von Schwarzer Elster, Dahme, Spree und Lausitzer Neiße zeigen sich durch Braunkohlebergbau und vielf{\"a}ltige Bewirtschaftungseinfl{\"u}sse deutliche Unterschiede zwischen nat{\"u}rlichem Abflussgeschehen und bewirtschafteten Abfl{\"u}ssen. Die m{\"o}glichen Auswirkungen klimatischer {\"A}nderungen werden durch eine Klimawandelimpaktstudie mit dem statistischen Regionalen Klimamodell STAR (3 Klimaszenarien), den hydrologischen Modellen SWIM und EGMO sowie dem Lang-fristbewirtschaftungsmodell WBalMo untersucht. Durch niedrigere nat{\"u}rliche Abfl{\"u}sse und den angenommenen R{\"u}ckgang der S{\"u}mpfungswassermengen aus dem Braunkohlebergbau werden mit WBalMo abnehmende bewirtschaftete Abfl{\"u}sse simuliert. Unsicherheiten bestehen dabei aufgrund der genutzten Klimaszenarien und hydrologischen Modelle, sowie hinsichtlich der Annahmen zur zuk{\"u}nftigen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (u. a. Braunkohlef{\"o}rderung und -verstromung).}, language = {de} } @misc{GaedekeHoelzelKochetal., author = {G{\"a}deke, Anne and H{\"o}lzel, Herwig and Koch, Hagen and Pohle, Ina and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model-based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River, Germany}, series = {Hydrological Processes}, volume = {28}, journal = {Hydrological Processes}, number = {12}, issn = {1099-1085}, doi = {10.1002/hyp.9933}, pages = {3978 -- 3998}, abstract = {Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario global circulation model downscaling approach (DA) bias correction impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerabil-ity of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Z{\"u}rich and HBV-light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long-term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{PohleZimmermannClausetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Zimmermann, Kai and Claus, Thomas and Koch, Hagen and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Uhlmann, Wilfried and Kaltofen, Michael and M{\"u}ller, Fabian and Redetzky, Michael and Schramm, Martina and Schoenheinz, Dagmar and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Long-term integrated river basin planning and management of water quantity and water quality in mining impacted catchments}, series = {European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria, 13 April - 17 May 2015}, booktitle = {European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria, 13 April - 17 May 2015}, publisher = {European Geophysical Society}, address = {Katlenburg-Lindau}, language = {en} } @misc{PohleKochConradtetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and Conradt, Tobias and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change and regional anthropogenic activities in Central European mesoscale catchments}, series = {Hydrological Sciences Journal - Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques}, volume = {60}, journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal - Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques}, number = {5}, issn = {0262-6667}, doi = {10.1080/02626667.2014.968571}, pages = {912 -- 928}, abstract = {The Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) was used to assess potential climate and land-use change impacts in the Central European catchments of Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse which are heavily influenced by opencast lignite mining. To account for potential climate change, scenarios of two statistical regional climate models, STAR and WettReg, were used. Regional anthropogenic change was considered in terms of increasing cultivation of energy crops (oilseed rape, silage maize, sunflower and sorghum) and decreasing mining activities (decreasing groundwater depression cone). In the climate scenarios, decreased natural discharge, by up to 60\% in the long-term average, was simulated. In simulations with climate scenarios and oilseed rape, this effect is halved; the other energy crops have a small additional impact on discharge. The decreasing groundwater depression cone slightly compensates for climate change impacts. Overall, potential impacts of regional anthropogenic activities are secondary to those of climate change.}, language = {en} } @misc{PohleKochGaedekeetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Hinz, Christoph and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Does water management reduce the uncertainty of projected climate change impacts on river discharge?}, publisher = {AGU Fall Meeting}, address = {San Francisco}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{PohleKochConradtetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and Conradt, Tobias and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Coping with challenges in the application of SWIM in a heavily managed lowland region in Central Europe}, series = {2014 International SWAT Conference, Porto de Galinhas, 30.7.-1.8.2014}, booktitle = {2014 International SWAT Conference, Porto de Galinhas, 30.7.-1.8.2014}, pages = {37}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{GaedekePohleKochetal., author = {G{\"a}deke, Anne and Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Comparing the eco-hydrological model SWIM to conceptually different hydrological models for climate change impact assessments on low flows}, series = {2014 International SWAT Conference, Porto de Galinhas, 30.7.-1.8.2014}, booktitle = {2014 International SWAT Conference, Porto de Galinhas, 30.7.-1.8.2014}, pages = {30}, language = {en} } @misc{PohleKochZimmermannetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and Zimmermann, Kai and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Claus, Thomas and Uhlmann, Wilfried and Kaltofen, Michael and Redetzky, Michael and Schramm, Martina and M{\"u}ller, Fabian and Schoenheinz, Dagmar and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Analyse von Wassermenge und Wasserbeschaffenheit f{\"u}r Klima- und Bewirtschaftungsszenarien: Aufbau und Nutzung einer Modellkaskade f{\"u}r das Spreeeinzugsgebiet}, series = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, volume = {60}, journal = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, number = {3}, doi = {10.5675/HyWa_2016,3_2}, pages = {176 -- 195}, abstract = {Klima{\"a}nderungen und sozio{\"o}konomische Entwicklungen k{\"o}nnen Konsequenzen f{\"u}r die Wassermengenbewirtschaftung und die Wasserbeschaffenheit nach sich ziehen. Zur Absch{\"a}tzung der Auswirkungen regionaler Entwicklungen wurde in dieser Studie eine Modellkaskade aus (i) den hydrologischen Modellen SWIM und EGMO, (ii) dem Langfristbewirtschaftungsmodell WBalMo und (iii) dem Wasserg{\"u}temodell GGM entwickelt, implementiert und angewandt. Die Modellkaskade bietet zudem die M{\"o}glichkeit,Anpassungsoptionen der Wassermengen- und -g{\"u}tebewirtschaftung einzubeziehen. Als Untersuchungsgebiet dient das Einzugsgebiet der Spree, in dem in Folge des jahrzehntelangen Braunkohlebergbaus und dessen R{\"u}ckgangs seit den 1990er Jahren vielf{\"a}ltige Herausforderungen hinsichtlich Wassermenge und -beschaffenheit bestehen (z. B. niedrige pH-Werte in den Tagebauseen, hohe Sulfatkonzentrationen in den Tagebauseen und Vorflutern). Die grundlegende Fragestellung ist, ob sich die bestehenden Wassermengen- und beschaffenheitsprobleme unter zuk{\"u}nftig potenziell trockeneren Bedingungen versch{\"a}rfen bzw. wie sie durch Anpassungsmaßnahmen gelindert werden k{\"o}nnen. Als klimatischer Antrieb der Modellkaskade werden stochastisch generierte Zeitreihen (Realisierungen) des Regionalen Klimamodells STAR genutzt. Die Realisierungen des Szenarios STAR 0K werden im Sinne einer Referenzvariante der rezenten klimatischen Bedingungen verwendet, um die Konsequenzen des R{\"u}ckgangs von Bergbauaktivit{\"a}ten separat zu betrachten. Zur Ermittlung der Sensitivit{\"a}t der Wasserressourcen gegen{\"u}ber einer potenziell trockeneren Zukunft dient das Szenario STAR 2K, bei dem eine weitere Erh{\"o}hung der Jahresmitteltemperatur um 2 K sowie im Mittel eine Abnahme des Jahresniederschlages projiziert wird. Die Betrachtung der sozio{\"o}konomischen Entwicklung der Region wird anhand eines Bewirtschaftungsszenarios betrachtet, welches von einem weiteren R{\"u}ckgang der Bergbauaktivit{\"a}ten in der Region ausgeht. Im Verlauf des Zeitraums 2018 2052 zeigen sich im Szenario STAR 0K nur geringe Auswirkungen auf das nat{\"u}rliche Wasserdargebot, die bewirtschafteten Abfl{\"u}sse gehen durch sinkende S{\"u}mpfungswassereinleitungen leicht zur{\"u}ck. Im Szenario STAR 2K geht das nat{\"u}rliche Wasserdargebot zur{\"u}ck und die wasserwirtschaftlichen Speicher werden st{\"a}rker in Anspruch genommen. Die bewirtschafteten Abfl{\"u}sse in der Region sinken, was negative Konsequenzen f{\"u}r die Erf{\"u}llung von Nutzeranspr{\"u}chen nach sich zieht. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Tagebauseen wiederversauern und die Sulfatkonzentrationen ansteigen, nimmt im Szenario STAR 2K im Vergleich zu STAR 0K zu. Wasserwirtschaftliche Anpassungsoptionen wurden hinsichtlich ihrer Konsequenzen f{\"u}r Wassermenge und beschaffenheit analysiert. Durch die {\"U}berleitung von Wasser aus der Elbe k{\"o}nnen die Wassermengen und beschaffenheitsprobleme gelindert werden. Die In Lake Neutralisation von Tagebauseen kann lokale Probleme der Wasserbeschaffenheit mindern.}, language = {de} } @misc{GaedekePohleKochetal., author = {G{\"a}deke, Anne and Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Trend analysis for integrated regional climate change impact assessments in the Lusatian river catchments (north-eastern Germany)}, series = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {17}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, number = {6}, issn = {1436-3798}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-017-1138-0}, pages = {1751 -- 1762}, abstract = {Trend analysis on observations and model-based climate change simulations are two commonly used methods for climate change detection and impact analysis. Here we propose an integrated assessment and interpretation of climate change impacts as a prerequisite for stakeholder outreach and planning of suitable climate change adaptation measures. The assessment includes (i) identifying trends in mete-orological and hydrological observations and their nature, (ii) analysing the relation between the mete-orological drivers and generated run-off as an integrated catchment response and (iii) analysing how hitherto changes agree with the simulations by regional climate models (RCMs). The Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster, characterised by high anthropogenic impact (e.g. mining activities) and low natural water yield, serve as study areas. The results of this study suggest that in-creases in observed temperature and potential evapotranspiration are robust while observed precipitation remained nearly unchanged (1963-2006). The RCMs agree on simulating a temperature increase but simulate opposing trends for precipitation for both past (1963-2006) and future (2018-2060) periods, the latter inducing differences in the hydrological response (actual evapotranspiration and run-off). For stakeholder outreach, we communicated a range of potential future climates and identified the statistical RCMs (STAR, WettReg) as warm and dry scenarios, and the dynamical RCMs (REMO, CCLM) as wet scenarios. Ultimately, the combined analysis of trends in observations and simulation models can be beneficial for stakeholder outreach and may increase their willingness to plan and implement suitable climate change adaptation strategies which are urgently needed within the Lusatian river catchments.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{PohleGaedekeKochetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Koch, Hagen and Sch{\"u}mberg, Sabine and Hinz, Christoph}, title = {Can water resources management alleviate the uncertainty of projected climate change impacts on river discharge? - A comparative study in two hydrologically similar catchments with different level of management}, series = {International Soil and Water Assessment Tool Conference. SWAT 2017, June 28 - 30, Warsaw, Poland, Book of Abstracts}, booktitle = {International Soil and Water Assessment Tool Conference. SWAT 2017, June 28 - 30, Warsaw, Poland, Book of Abstracts}, pages = {10 -- 11}, abstract = {Climate change impact studies are associated with error propagation and amplification of uncertainties through model chains from global climate models down to impact (e.g. hydrological) models. The effect of water management, which reduces discharge variability, is often not considered in climate change impact studies. Here, we investigated how water resources management influences discharge variability and uncertainty propagation of climate change scenarios by combining the analyses of observed flow records and model-based climate change impact simulations. Two neighbouring catchments, the Schwarze Elster River (Germany) and the Spree River (Germany and Czech Republic) which are similar in climate, topography and land use, but different in terms of water resources management were chosen as study area. The intense water resources management in the Spree River catchment includes a high reservoir capacity, water use in terms of mining discharges and water withdrawals by power plants as well as water transfers. The analysis of historical flow records focusses on variability indices (Parde index, Richards-Baker-Flashiness Index, Interquartile Ratio and Baseflow Index). The climate change impact simulations were carried out using a model cascade of (i) the statistical regional model STAR (100 stochastically generated realizations each for 3 scenarios with different prescribed temperature trend), (ii) the hydrological models SWIM and EGMO, and (iii) the water resources management model WBalMo. The analysis of the observed discharges reveals that the annual discharge variability in the Spree catchment is dominated by mining activities rather than natural rainfall-runoff processes. Due to the high reservoir capacity in the Spree catchment its discharge is characterised by less seasonality and short-term variability compared to the Schwarze Elster. Simulations with climate change scenarios assuming increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation result in pronounced reductions of discharge in both catchments. The differences in potential natural discharges between the Schwarze Elster and the Spree catchments as projected by the hydrological models SWIM and EGMO are marginal. The uncertainties related to the climate projection are propagated through the hydrological models. In the Schwarze Elster catchment, the managed discharges simulated by WBalMo are comparable to the potential natural discharges. In the Spree River however, the short-term variability is moderated by water resources management and managed discharge under climate change is less affected by amplification of uncertainties through model chains. The results of the study, which combines the analyses of observed flow records and model-based climate change impact simulations, imply that generally, effective water resources management reducing discharge variability hence also reduces uncertainty related to climate change impacts on river discharge. Catchments with a high storage ratio are thus less vulnerable to changing climate conditions. This underlines the role of water resources management in coping with climate change impacts. Yet, due to decreasing reservoir volumes in drought periods, reservoir management alone cannot compensate strong changes in climate conditions over long time periods.}, language = {en} }