@misc{HuebenerHoffmannKeuleretal., author = {H{\"u}bener, Heike and Hoffmann, Peter and Keuler, Klaus and Pfeifer, Susanne and Ramthun, Hans and Spekat, Arne and Steger, Christian and Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten}, title = {Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results}, series = {Advances in Science and Research}, volume = {14}, journal = {Advances in Science and Research}, issn = {1992-0628}, doi = {10.5194/asr-14-261-2017}, pages = {261 -- 269}, language = {en} } @misc{BuelowHuebenerKeuleretal., author = {B{\"u}low, Katharina and H{\"u}bener, Heike and Keuler, Klaus and Menz, Christoph and Pfeifer, Susanne and Ramthun, Hans and Spekat, Arne and Steger, Christian and Teichmann, Claas and Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten}, title = {User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany}, series = {Advances in Science and Research}, volume = {16}, journal = {Advances in Science and Research}, issn = {1992-0636}, doi = {10.5194/asr-16-241-2019}, pages = {241 -- 249}, abstract = {In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De the existing EURO-CORDEX simulations have been systematically complemented by new simulations to derive more robust ranges of possible future climate change. The focus of the project lay on user tailored results, which are required for the planning of measures to adapt to the changing climate. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are calculated from a multi model ensemble for the end of the 21st century. The results for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are compared to the results of the "business as usual" scenario RCP8.5. Averaged over Germany the increase of mean annual temperature and of the number of summer days will be around 3 times higher for RCP8.5 than for RCP2.6. In summer, the increase of dry days could be twice as high in RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6.}, language = {en} } @misc{DavinRechidBreiletal., author = {Davin, Edouard and Rechid, Diana and Breil, Marcus and Cardoso, Rita M. and Coppola, Erika and Hoffmann, Peter and Jach, Lisa L. and Katragkou, Eleni and Noblet-Ducoudr{\´e}, Nathalie de and Radtke, Kai and Raffa, Mario and Soares, Pedro and Sofiadis, Giannis and Strada, Susanna and Strandberg, Gustav and T{\"o}lle, Merja H. and Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten and Wulfmeyer, Volker}, title = {Biogeophysical impacts of deforestation in Europe First results from the LUCAS Regional Climate Mode intercomparison}, series = {Earth System Dynamics}, volume = {11}, journal = {Earth System Dynamics}, number = {1}, issn = {2190-4995}, doi = {10.5194/esd-11-183-2020}, pages = {183 -- 200}, abstract = {The Land Use and Climate Across Scales Flagship Pilot Study (LUCAS FPS) is a coordinated community effort to improve the integration of land use change (LUC) in regional climate models (RCMs) and to quantify the biogeophysical effects of LUC on local to regional climate in Europe. In the first phase of LUCAS, nine RCMs are used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of re-/afforestation over Europe: two idealized experiments representing respectively a non-forested and a maximally forested Europe are compared in order to quantify spatial and temporal variations in the regional climate sensitivity to forestation. We find some robust features in the simulated response to forestation. In particular, all models indicate a year-round decrease in surface albedo, which is most pronounced in winter and spring at high latitudes. This results in a winter warming effect, with values ranging from +0.2 to +1 K on average over Scandinavia depending on models. However, there are also a number of strongly diverging responses. For instance, there is no agreement on the sign of temperature changes in summer with some RCMs predicting a widespread cooling from forestation (well below -2 K in most regions), a widespread warming (around +2 K or above in most regions) or a mixed response. A large part of the inter-model spread is attributed to the representation of land processes. In particular, differences in the partitioning of sensible and latent heat are identified as a key source of uncertainty in summer. Atmospheric processes, such as changes in incoming radiation due to cloud cover feedbacks, also influence the simulated response in most seasons. In conclusion, the multi-model approach we use here has the potential to deliver more robust and reliable information to stakeholders involved in land use planning, as compared to results based on single models. However, given the contradictory responses identified, our results also show that there are still fundamental uncertainties that need to be tackled to better anticipate the possible intended or unintended consequences of LUC on regional climates.}, language = {en} }