@techreport{HuebenerBuelowFookenetal., author = {H{\"u}bener, Heike and B{\"u}low, Katharina and Fooken, Cornelia and Fr{\"u}h, Barbara and Hoffmann, Peter and H{\"o}pp, Simona and Keuler, Klaus and Menz, Christoph and Mohr, Viktoria and Radtke, Kai and Woldt, Michael}, title = {ReKliEs-De Ergebnisbericht}, publisher = {Eigenverlag des Hessischen Landesamtes HLNUG}, address = {Wiesbaden}, pages = {56}, language = {de} } @misc{KjellstroemNikulinStrandbergetal., author = {Kjellstr{\"o}m, Erik and Nikulin, Grigory and Strandberg, Gustav and B{\o}ssing Christensen, Ole and Jacob, Daniela and Keuler, Klaus and Lenderink, Geert and Meijgaard, Erik van and Sch{\"a}r, Christoph and Somot, Samuel}, title = {European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2°C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models}, series = {Earth System Dynamics}, journal = {Earth System Dynamics}, number = {9}, issn = {2190-4987}, doi = {10.5194/esd-9-459-2018}, pages = {459 -- 478}, language = {en} } @techreport{HuebenerSpekatBuelowetal., author = {H{\"u}bener, Heike and Spekat, Arne and B{\"u}low, Katharina and Fr{\"u}h, Barbara and Keuler, Klaus and Menz, Christoph and Radtke, Kai and Ramthun, Hans}, title = {ReKliEs-De Nutzerhandbuch}, publisher = {World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ}, address = {Hamburg}, doi = {10.2312/WDCC/ReKliEsDe_Nutzerhandbuch}, pages = {II, 86, XIV}, language = {de} } @misc{VautardKadygrovIlesetal., author = {Vautard, Robert and Kadygrov, Nikolay and Iles, Carley and Keuler, Klaus}, title = {Evaluation of the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble}, series = {J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.}, journal = {J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.}, issn = {2169-8996}, doi = {10.1029/2019JD032344}, pages = {47}, abstract = {The use of regional climate model-based projections for providing regional climate information in a research and climate service contexts is currently expanding very fast. This has been possible thanks to a considerable effort in developing comprehensive ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) projections, especially for Europe, in the EURO-CORDEX community (Jacob et al., 2014; Jacob et al., 2020). Currently, EURO-CORDEX has developed a set of 55 historical and scenario projections (RCP8.5) using 8 driving global climate models (GCMs) and 11 RCMs. This article presents the ensemble including its design. We target the analysis to better characterize the quality of the regional climate models by providing an evaluation of these RCM simulations over a number of classical climate variables and extreme and impact-oriented indices for the period 1981-2010. For the main variables, the model simulations generally agree with observations and reanalyses. However, several systematic biases are found as well, with shared responsibilities among RCMs and GCMs: simulations are overall too cold, too wet and too windy compared to available observations or reanalyses. Some simulations show strong systematic biases on temperature, others on precipitation or dynamical variables but none of the models/simulations can be defined as the best or the worst on all criteria. The article aims at supporting a proper use of these simulations within a climate services context.}, language = {en} } @misc{BuelowHuebenerKeuleretal., author = {B{\"u}low, Katharina and H{\"u}bener, Heike and Keuler, Klaus and Menz, Christoph and Pfeifer, Susanne and Ramthun, Hans and Spekat, Arne and Steger, Christian and Teichmann, Claas and Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten}, title = {User tailored results of a regional climate model ensemble to plan adaption to the changing climate in Germany}, series = {Advances in Science and Research}, volume = {16}, journal = {Advances in Science and Research}, issn = {1992-0636}, doi = {10.5194/asr-16-241-2019}, pages = {241 -- 249}, abstract = {In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De the existing EURO-CORDEX simulations have been systematically complemented by new simulations to derive more robust ranges of possible future climate change. The focus of the project lay on user tailored results, which are required for the planning of measures to adapt to the changing climate. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are calculated from a multi model ensemble for the end of the 21st century. The results for the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are compared to the results of the "business as usual" scenario RCP8.5. Averaged over Germany the increase of mean annual temperature and of the number of summer days will be around 3 times higher for RCP8.5 than for RCP2.6. In summer, the increase of dry days could be twice as high in RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6.}, language = {en} } @misc{VanderkelenZscheischlerGudmundssonetal., author = {Vanderkelen, Inne and Zscheischler, Jakob and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Keuler, Klaus and Rineau, Francois and Neenaerts, Natalie and Vangronsveld, Jaco and Vicca, Sara and Thiery, Wim}, title = {A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments}, series = {International Journal of Biometeorology}, volume = {64}, journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology}, number = {10}, issn = {0020-7128}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01951-8}, pages = {1709 -- 1727}, abstract = {Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change.}, language = {en} } @misc{JacobTeichmannKeuler, author = {Jacob, Daniela and Teichmann, Claas and Keuler, Klaus}, title = {Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community}, series = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {20}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, issn = {1436-378X}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9}, pages = {20}, abstract = {The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.}, language = {en} } @misc{BlockKeulerSchaller, author = {Block, Alexander and Keuler, Klaus and Schaller, Eberhard}, title = {Impacts of anthropogenic heat on regional climate patterns}, series = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {31}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, number = {12}, doi = {10.1029/2004GL019852}, pages = {4}, abstract = {[1] Four different simulations of a winter period in Central Europe are carried out to investigate the principle effect of anthropogenic heat release from the highly industrialized and populated Ruhrarea region (Germany) on regional climate conditions. The results reveal a permanent warming due to anthropogenic heat emissions over affected areas ranging from 0.15 K over land area with an additional 2 W m-2 anthropogenic heat flux up to 0.5 K over the Ruhrarea with additional 20 W m-2 anthropogenic heat flux. The temperature effects induced by anthropogenic heat not only depend on the amount of added heat but also on orographical factors. No significant variations are found for precipitation.}, language = {en} } @misc{BoehmKueckenHauffeetal., author = {B{\"o}hm, Uwe and K{\"u}cken, Martin and Hauffe, Detlef and Gerstengarbe, F.-W. and Werner, P. C. and Flechsig, Michael and Keuler, Klaus and Block, Alexander and Ahrens, Wilfried and Nocke, Th.}, title = {Reliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate}, series = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {4}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, number = {3}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-4-417-2004}, pages = {417 -- 431}, abstract = {We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Ni{\~n}o event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling.}, language = {en} } @techreport{HollwegBoehmFastetal., author = {Hollweg, Heinz-Dieter and B{\"o}hm, Uwe and Fast, Irina and Hennemuth, Barbara and Keuler, Klaus and Keup-Thiel, Elke and Lautenschlager, Michael and Legutke, Stephanie and Radtke, Kai and Rockel, Burkhardt and Schubert, Martina and Will, Andreas and Woldt, Michael and Wunram, Claudia}, title = {Ensemble Simulations over Europe with the Regional Climate Model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 Global Scenarios}, publisher = {Max-Planck-Institut f{\"u}r Meteorologie}, address = {Hamburg}, doi = {10.2312/WDCC/MaD_TeReport_No03}, pages = {152}, abstract = {Regional climate projections have been performed for Europe with the climate version CLM (version 3.1) of the 'Lokal-Modell' (LM) of the German Meteorological Service. CLM has been forced with output of the ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, which contributed to the fourth climate assessment report (AR4) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results of the global model for the IPCC A1B and B1 scenarios as well as the reconstruction of the last four decades of the 20th century (20C3M) for the AR4 are dynamically scaled down to the CLM grid cell size of about 18×18 km2. Climatological parameters including all model variables and additional quantities characterising the climate are available from the World Data Centre for Climate database run by the German climate service group Model and Data. They can be accessed by the general public at no costs with the help of M and D. In particular, the 'Service Group Adaptation' (SGA) has been established at M and D to assist adaptation projects funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) giving advice on the interpretation of the CLM model results.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KreienkampKeuler, author = {Kreienkamp, Frank and Keuler, Klaus}, title = {Umgang mit der Unsicherheit regionaler Klimaprojektionen - Bias-Korrekturen: Pro und Kontra}, series = {Regionale Klimamodelle - Potentiale, Grenzen und Perspektiven}, journal = {Regionale Klimamodelle - Potentiale, Grenzen und Perspektiven}, publisher = {Nationales Komitee f{\"u}r Global Change Forschung c/o Institut f{\"u}r Weltwirtschaft}, address = {Kiel}, isbn = {978-3-9813068-1-1}, pages = {2}, language = {de} } @techreport{WillKeulerBlock, author = {Will, Andreas and Keuler, Klaus and Block, Alexander}, title = {The Climate Local Model - Evaluation Results and Recent Developments}, number = {8}, publisher = {TerraFLOPS}, pages = {2 -- 3}, abstract = {A successful and overall evaluation of the CLM was a prerequisite for conduction of the consortial runs, which will be the data basis of the BMBF research program "Research for the climate protection and protection from climate impact". We present selected results showing the quality of the model and discuss open questions in regional climate modelling, which may be further addressed using the results of the consortial runs.}, language = {en} } @techreport{BoehmKueckenAhrensetal., author = {B{\"o}hm, Uwe and K{\"u}cken, Martin and Ahrens, Wilfried and Block, Alexander and Hauffe, Detlef and Keuler, Klaus and Rockel, Burkhardt and Will, Andreas}, title = {CLM - The Climate Version of LM: Brief Description and Long-Term Applications}, publisher = {COSMO Newsletter}, address = {Offenbach, Germany}, pages = {11}, language = {en} } @techreport{KeulerBlockAhrensetal., author = {Keuler, Klaus and Block, Alexander and Ahrens, Wilfried and Jacob, Daniela and Rechid, Diana and Kotova, Lola and Kotlarski, Sven and Heimann, Dietrich and Zemsch, Maria and Knoche, Richard and Dittmann, Ernst and Walter, Andreas and Berger, Franz and Sommer, Michael}, title = {Quantifizierung von Ungenauigkeiten regionaler Klima- und Klima{\"a}nderungssimulationen (QUIRCS). Zusammenfassung der wesentlichen Ergebnisse eines Projektes des deutschen Klimaforschungsprogramms DEKLIM}, pages = {153}, abstract = {Das Projekt QUIRCS ("Quantification of Uncertainties in Regional Climate and Climate-Change Simulations") ist eines von insgesamt37Verbundforschungsprojekten, die im Rahmen des Deutschen Klimaforschungsprogramms DEKLIM vom BMBF als Beitrag zum Teilbereich „Klima-forschung und Vorhersagbarkeit" gef{\"o}rdert worden sind [DEKLIM, 2005]. Unter der Koordination des Lehrstuhls Umweltmeteorologie der Brandenburgischen Technischen Universit{\"a}t (BTU) Cottbus waren 6 Institutionen mit insgesamt 13 Mitarbeitern {\"u}ber 4 Jahre an der Durchf{\"u}hrung des Projektes beteiligt. Der vorliegende Bericht gibt einen {\"U}berblick {\"u}ber die verschiedenen Aufgabenstellungen und fasst die wesentlichen Ergebnisse des Projektes zusammen.}, language = {de} } @techreport{KeulerBlockAhrensetal., author = {Keuler, Klaus and Block, Alexander and Ahrens, Wilfried and Jacob, Daniela and Rechid, Diana and Kotova, Lola and Kotlarski, Sven and Heimann, Dietrich and Zemsch, Maria and Knoche, Richard and Dittmann, Ernst and Walter, Andreas and Berger, Franz and Sommer, Michael}, title = {QUIRCS: Quantification of uncertainties in regional climate and climate change simulations. German Climate Research Programme (2001-2006), Final Symposium 2005}, publisher = {DLR}, address = {Bonn}, pages = {9}, abstract = {The comparison of multi model runs of the reference period 1979-1993 with different observational data sets for several climate parameters enables the quantification of the model uncertainties in representing present-day climate conditions for Central Europe. The quantification is based on a number of objective distance measures which detect differences in the spatial and temporal structures of the data sets being compared. Additional climate change simulations of two 30-year periods (control and scenario simulation) are performed for the SRES B2 global change scenario. They indicate a severe warming for Germany with values of up to 4 K in summer which is much higher than the quantified uncertainty range of the regional models for this climate parameter. For precipitation in Germany, a weak reduction during the summer months is overcompensated by an increase in winter and fall. However, the simulated changes are smaller than the quantified uncertainty range for the regional models so that in particular a significant reduction of the annual precipitation in Germany cannot be stated on basis of the current simulations for the B2 scenario. Aim of the research in the context of DEKLIM A reliable assessment of possible future climate developments requires an improved understanding of climate and its variability as well as a detailed knowledge of the uncertainties of climate simulations which provide the requested information about the potential degree of future changes. The project QUIRCS focuses on the climate patterns of Central Europe and investigates the quality of currently used regional climate models and regionalization techniques by a model inter-comparison, a substantial model evaluation, additional sensitivity studies and an extensive analysis of climate data. The major scientific aims are • to quantify the uncertainties of regional climate simulations and of observed climate data, • to provide a regional climate change scenario for Europe with a particular focus on Germany, • to assess the reliability of the produced climate change signals with respect to the Collapse.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KeulerKnocheJacob, author = {Keuler, Klaus and Knoche, Hans-Richard and Jacob, Daniela}, title = {M{\"o}glichkeiten und Grenzen regionaler Klimamodelle}, series = {Regionale Klimamodelle - Potentiale, Grenzen und Perspektiven}, journal = {Regionale Klimamodelle - Potentiale, Grenzen und Perspektiven}, publisher = {Nationales Komitee f{\"u}r Global Change Forschung c/o Institut f{\"u}r Weltwirtschaft}, address = {Kiel}, isbn = {978-3-9813068-1-1}, pages = {2}, language = {de} } @misc{GerlingDrechslerKeuleretal., author = {Gerling, Charlotte and Drechsler, Martin and Keuler, Klaus and Leins, Johannes A. and Radtke, Kai and Schulz, Bj{\"o}rn and Sturm, Astrid and W{\"a}tzold, Frank}, title = {Modelling the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in agricultural landscapes facing}, publisher = {ZBW-Leibnitz Information Centre for Economics}, address = {Kiel ; Hamburg}, pages = {22}, abstract = {Beitr{\"a}ge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins f{\"u}r Socialpolitik 2021: Climate Economics}, language = {en} } @misc{GerlingDrechslerKeuleretal., author = {Gerling, Charlotte and Drechsler, Martin and Keuler, Klaus and Leins, Johannes A. and Radtke, Kai and Schulz, Bj{\"o}rn and Sturm, Astrid and W{\"a}tzold, Frank}, title = {Cost-effective conservation in the face of climate change: combining ecological-economic modelling and climate science for the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in agricultural landscapes}, series = {MPRA paper}, journal = {MPRA paper}, pages = {21}, language = {en} } @misc{DrechslerGerlingKeuleretal., author = {Drechsler, Martin and Gerling, Charlotte and Keuler, Klaus and Leins, Johannes A. and Sturm, Astrid and W{\"a}tzold, Frank}, title = {A quantitative approach for the design of robust and cost-effective conservation policies under uncertain climate change: The case of grasshopper conservation in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany}, series = {Journal of Environmental Management}, volume = {296}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Management}, issn = {1095-8630}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113201}, pages = {7}, language = {en} } @misc{KuhnJenschFischeretal., author = {Kuhn, Ramona and Jensch, Robert and Fischer, Thomas and Keuler, Klaus and Bryant, Isaac Mbir and Martienssen, Marion}, title = {Sunlight Degradation of the Aminophosphonate Diethylenetriamine Penta-(Methylenephosphonic Acid)}, series = {Solar}, volume = {2}, journal = {Solar}, number = {2}, issn = {2673-9941}, doi = {10.3390/solar2020009}, pages = {141 -- 157}, abstract = {Aminophosphonate diethylenetriamine penta(methylenephosphonic acid) (DTPMP) is a scale inhibitor commonly used in several industries. DTPMP is suspected to cause anthropogenic pollution through discharge into the aquatic environment. DTPMP is assumed to be degraded by sunlight radiation. We recently predicted a preliminary degradation pathway of DTPMP applyingUV treatment. Currently, we have not yet evidenced that DTPMP shows the same degradation pattern with natural sunlight. One major reason leads to the fact that the light spectrum emitted by UV lamps does not completely represent the natural sunlight spectrum, and the emitted UVB and UVA irradiation flux is much higher than for solar light. For that reason, the degradation pattern and kinetics might be different between artificial UV treatment and natural sunlight treatment. Here, we investigated whether DTPMP is degradable under natural sunlight radiation, and whether the degradation mechanisms determined through UV treatment are transferable to sunlight. We investigated five different treatment conditions, i.e., DTPMP degradation in direct or diffuse sunlight, in diffuse sunlight with addition of Ca2+ or Mg2+, and in diffuse sunlight with local TW. Our experiment was carried out from March 2021 to October 2021. We performed LC/MS analyses and measured the release of o-PO4 3 . DTPMP was degraded with all five treatment conditions. The fastest DTPMP degradation occurred in direct and diffuse sunlight without addition of bivalent cations. The addition of Ca2+ and Mg2+ resulted in inhibited degradation. Similar effects occurred for sunlight treatment with local TW. We evidenced different degradation mechanisms for DTPMP depending on the presence of alkaline earth metals as we previously proposed for UV-treated DTPMP. However, both degradation mechanisms of DTPMP belong to the same degradation pathway determined with UV treatment. Therefore, we conclude that DTPMP undergoes a similar degradation pathway in sunlight as compared to UV light.}, language = {en} } @misc{GerlingDrechslerKeuleretal., author = {Gerling, Charlotte and Drechsler, Martin and Keuler, Klaus and Sturm, Astrid and W{\"a}tzold, Frank}, title = {Time to consider the timing of conservation measures: designing cost-effective agri-environment schemes under climate change}, series = {MPRA paper}, journal = {MPRA paper}, pages = {38}, language = {en} } @misc{GerlingDrechslerKeuleretal., author = {Gerling, Charlotte and Drechsler, Martin and Keuler, Klaus and Leins, Johannes A. and Radtke, Kai and Schulz, Bj{\"o}rn and Sturm, Astrid and W{\"a}tzold, Frank}, title = {Climate-ecological-economic modelling for the cost-effective spatiotemporal allocation of conservation measures in cultural landscapes facing climate change}, series = {Q Open}, volume = {2}, journal = {Q Open}, number = {1}, issn = {2633-9048}, doi = {10.1093/qopen/qoac004}, pages = {1 -- 20}, language = {en} } @misc{GerlingSturmWaetzoldetal., author = {Gerling, Charlotte and Sturm, Astrid and W{\"a}tzold, Frank and Keuler, Klaus and Radtke, Kai and Drechsler, Martin and Leins, Johannes A.}, title = {{\"O}konomie der Klimaanpassung zum Schutz der biologischen Vielfalt ; Postervorstellung : BfN Statuskonferenz "Biodiversit{\"a}t und Klimawandel - Synergien erforschen" in Berlin, 7.12.2023}, doi = {10.13140/RG.2.2.16540.97923}, pages = {2}, language = {de} } @misc{HerrmannKeulerWoltersetal., author = {Herrmann, Frank and Keuler, Klaus and Wolters, Tim and Bergmann, Sabine and Eisele, Michael and Wendland, Frank}, title = {Mit der Modellkette RCP-GCM-RCM-mGROWA projizierte Grundwasserneubildung als Datenbasis f{\"u}r zuk{\"u}nftiges Grundwassermanagement in Nordrhein-Westfalen}, series = {Grundwasser}, volume = {26}, journal = {Grundwasser}, number = {1}, issn = {1430-483X}, doi = {10.1007/s00767-020-00471-x}, pages = {17 -- 31}, abstract = {Mit einem Multi-Modell-Ensemble wurde analysiert, wie sich der Klimawandel auf den Grundwasserhaushalt in Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) auswirkt. Hierzu wurden Projektionen der zuk{\"u}nftigen Grundwasserneubildung f{\"u}r insgesamt 36 Mitglieder der Modellkette RCP-GCM-RCM-mGROWA, bestehend aus 3 RCP-Szenarien zuk{\"u}nftiger globaler Erw{\"a}rmung, 6 globalen und 5 dynamischen regionalen Klimamodellen sowie dem Wasserhaushaltsmodell mGROWA, vorgenommen. Mit dem Ensemble wurden f{\"u}r die hydrogeologischen Großr{\"a}ume NRWs nur teilweise signifikante {\"A}nderungen der j{\"a}hrlichen Grundwasserneubildung in den Perioden 2011-2040, 2041-2070 und 2071-2100 projiziert. Ein Robustheitstest mit zwei Kriterien ({\"U}bereinstimmung und Signifikanz der {\"A}nderungssignale) liefert keine belastbare Begr{\"u}ndung daf{\"u}r, dass sich die Grundwasserneubildung bis 2100 systematisch und signifikant {\"a}ndern wird. Aus statistischer Perspektive wird deshalb die Schlussfolgerung gezogen, dass in NRW langfristig eine Grundwasserneubildung erwartet werden kann, die sich nicht grundlegend vom Niveau der Periode 1971-2000 unterscheidet. Hydro-meteorologisch befindet sich NRW in einer {\"U}bergangszone, in der eine Zunahme der Winterniederschl{\"a}ge die Wirkung der Erw{\"a}rmung auf die Grundwasserneubildung wahrscheinlich kompensiert.}, language = {de} } @misc{GerlingDrechslerKeuleretal., author = {Gerling, Charlotte and Drechsler, Martin and Keuler, Klaus and Sturm, Astrid and W{\"a}tzold, Frank}, title = {Time to consider the timing of conservation measures: Designing cost-effective agri-environment schemes under climate change}, series = {Agricultural and Resource Economics Review}, volume = {52}, journal = {Agricultural and Resource Economics Review}, number = {2}, issn = {2372-2614}, doi = {10.1017/age.2023.4}, pages = {231 -- 249}, language = {en} } @misc{GerlingDrechslerKeuleretal., author = {Gerling, Charlotte and Drechsler, Martin and Keuler, Klaus and Leins, Johannes and Schulz, Bj{\"o}rn and Sturm, Astrid and W{\"a}tzold, Frank}, title = {Effektivit{\"a}t und Kosteneffizienz von Artenschutzmaßnahmen unter Klimawandel - das Beispiel der Sumpfschrecke (Stethophyma grossum) in Schleswig-Holstein}, series = {Natur und Landschaft}, volume = {100. Jahrgang 2025}, journal = {Natur und Landschaft}, number = {1}, isbn = {0028-0615-202501}, pages = {2 -- 8}, language = {de} }