@inproceedings{PohleKochGaedekeetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Assessment of the combined effects of climate and land use change in Lusatia, Central Europe}, series = {2013 International SWAT Conference, Toulouse, 2013}, booktitle = {2013 International SWAT Conference, Toulouse, 2013}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{PohleKochGaedekeetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Using catchment similarity for model parameter regionalization in highly anthropogenically impacted catchments in Lusatia}, series = {EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna, Austria, 07 - 12 April 2013}, booktitle = {EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna, Austria, 07 - 12 April 2013}, pages = {3822}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{PohleGaedekeKochetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Koch, Hagen and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Absch{\"a}tzung m{\"o}glicher Folgen des Klimawandels auf die regionalen Wasserressourcen der Lausitz}, series = {Wasserressourcen im globalen Wandel, Hydrologische Grundlagen - von der Messung zur Anwendung, Beitr{\"a}ge zum Tag der Hydrologie am 4.-6. April 2013 an der Universit{\"a}t Bern}, booktitle = {Wasserressourcen im globalen Wandel, Hydrologische Grundlagen - von der Messung zur Anwendung, Beitr{\"a}ge zum Tag der Hydrologie am 4.-6. April 2013 an der Universit{\"a}t Bern}, editor = {Weing{\"a}rtner, Rolf and Sch{\"a}dler, Bruno}, publisher = {Fachgemeinschaft Hydrologische Wissenschaften in der DWA}, address = {Hennef}, isbn = {978-3-942964-89-0}, pages = {113 -- 122}, abstract = {Das {\"o}kohydrologische Modell SWIM wurde f{\"u}r die Gesamteinzugsgebiete der Dahme, der Schwarzen Elster und die Einzugsgebiete der Spree bis zum Pegel Große Tr{\"a}nke und der Lausitzer Neiße bis zum Pegel Steinbach aufgebaut und parametrisiert. Aufgrund starker anthropogener Beeinflussung durch Braunkohlef{\"o}rderung und Wasserbewirtschaftung ist der klassische Ansatz der Kalibrierung hydrologischer Modelle an den Endpegeln der Einzugsgebiete nicht m{\"o}glich. Der in dieser Studie genutzte Ansatz ist daher, SWIM f{\"u}r Teileinzugsgebiete zu kalibrieren und zu validieren und die sensitivsten Modellparameter zu regionalisieren. Zur Verifizierung der Kalibrierung wurden f{\"u}r unbeeinflusste Teileinzugsgebiete Modellergebnisse von SWIM mit denen von WaSim-ETH und HBV light verglichen. Der Regionalisierungsansatz wurde durch Vergleich mit diesen Modellen in einem anthropogen st{\"a}rker beeinflussten Teileinzugsgebiet und unter Ber{\"u}cksichtigung langj{\"a}hriger nat{\"u}rlicher und naturalisierter Abfl{\"u}sse verifiziert. Zwischen den Simulationsergebnissen von SWIM, HBV light und WaSim-ETH zeigen sich unter Antrieb der Szenarien WettReg A1B und STAR 2K nur geringe Unterschiede. Hingegen wirkt sich die Wahl des Regionalen Klimamodells deutlich auf die Simulationsergebnisse aus. Simulationen f{\"u}r die Gesamteinzugsgebiete im Untersuchungsgebiet zeigen einen deutlichen R{\"u}ckgang von Abfluss und Grundwasserneubildung f{\"u}r WettReg A1B. Das Szenario STAR 0K f{\"u}hrt zu sehr geringen {\"A}nderungen dieser Wasserhaushaltskomponenten in den Einzugsgebieten der Dahme, der Schwarzen Elster und der Spree, w{\"a}hrend die Szenarien STAR 2K und STAR 3K zu deutlichen R{\"u}ckg{\"a}ngen beider Gr{\"o}ßen f{\"u}hren. Im Einzugsgebiet der Lausitzer Neiße wird f{\"u}r die STARSzenarien ein Anstieg des Abflusses bei Verringerung der Grundwasserneubildung simuliert.}, language = {de} } @inproceedings{GaedekePohleKochetal., author = {G{\"a}deke, Anne and Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Assessment of potential climate and land use change impacts on the regional water resources of Lusatia (Germany)}, series = {EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna, Austria, 07 - 12 April 2013}, booktitle = {EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna, Austria, 07 - 12 April 2013}, pages = {3450-1}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{PohleKochGaedekeetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Simulation von Auswirkungen potenzieller Klima{\"a}nderungen auf den Wasserhaushalt unter Ber{\"u}cksichtigung unterschiedlicher Datengrundlagen}, series = {Simulation hydrologischer Systeme - Wie nah kommen wir der Realit{\"a}t?, Beitr{\"a}ge zum 3. Trierer N-A-Workshop zur Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modellierung am 17. und 18. September 2012 in Trier}, booktitle = {Simulation hydrologischer Systeme - Wie nah kommen wir der Realit{\"a}t?, Beitr{\"a}ge zum 3. Trierer N-A-Workshop zur Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modellierung am 17. und 18. September 2012 in Trier}, editor = {Casper, Markus and Gronz, Oliver}, publisher = {DWA}, address = {Hennef}, isbn = {978-3-944328-02-7}, pages = {157 -- 166}, language = {de} } @inproceedings{PohleKochGaedekeetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Assessment of potential climate change impacts on the regional water resources of Lusatia}, series = {CCRR, Dresden, 2013}, booktitle = {CCRR, Dresden, 2013}, abstract = {Lusatia is one of the driest regions in Germany: already under current climate conditions the climatic water balance is negative. Due to excessive open-cast lignite mining activities the water balance of the catchments of the rivers Spree, Schwarze Elster, and Lusatian Neisse is profoundly disturbed. Potential changes of future climate and land use conditions will certainly impact the natural hydrologic conditions and consequently water management measures have to be adjusted in order to alleviate the water tense situation. Simulations of the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) for subcatchments without influence of lignite mining and water management driven by scenarios of the Statistical Analogue Resampling scheme (STAR) assuming a further temperature increase of 0 K, 2 K and 3 K, respectively, showed an aggravation of the situation: Due to higher potential evaporation natural discharge is decreased especially in the vegetation period. The objective of this study is to assess potential climate change impact for the catchments of the rivers Spree, Schwarze Elster, and Lusation Neisse. Due to the strong anthropogenic impact on the discharge, the traditional approach of calibrating hydrological models based on time series of observed discharges is constrained. In order to estimate potential climate and land use change impacts for the named river catchments SWIM was first calibrated for subcatchments without influence of mining activities and water management. In a second step, the model was set up for the all catchments using model parameter regionalization. Climate change impacts were estimated using climate scenarios STAR (3 scenarios, 100 realisations each) and WettReg (3 scenarios, 10 realisations each). Land use change was considered for several scenarios focusing on the reduction of the groundwater depression cone caused by lignite mining and on a potentially increased cultivation of agricultural energy crops. Both, changes in quasi-natural river discharges at certain gauge stations and temporally and spatially distributed changes of water balance components, were analyzed in order to estimate whether climate or land use changes will be the dominant reason for potential changes of water resources. The simulated discharges will later be used as input data for the long term water management model WBalMo in order to assess potential climate and land use change impacts on water users and managed discharges as a prerequisite for climate and land use change adaptation strategies.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{PohleKochGaedekeetal., author = {Pohle, Ina and Koch, Hagen and G{\"a}deke, Anne and Kaltofen, Michael and Schramm, Michael and Redetzky, Michael and M{\"u}ller, F. and Gr{\"u}newald, Uwe}, title = {Potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed discharges of the Rivers Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse, Central Europe}, series = {Water and Society II}, booktitle = {Water and Society II}, editor = {Brebbia, Carlos A.}, publisher = {WIT Press}, address = {Ashurst, Southampton, UK}, isbn = {978-1-84564-742-1}, pages = {3 -- 16}, abstract = {The water balance of the Rivers Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse is profoundly disturbed due to large-scale open-cast lignite mining activities and water management. Together with continental climate conditions this affects water resources and water users in the region. Driven by scenarios of the regional climate model STAR which assume increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation, two hydrological models, the Soil and Water Integrated Model SWIM and the catchment model EGMO simulate declining natural discharges in the region. Thus, decreasing managed discharges are simulated with the long term water management model WBalMo. The refinement of the simulation time step of WBalMo from months to weeks improves the consideration of climate variability and is also associated with higher simulated managed discharges in early summer. Management scenarios in terms of a reduced outlet capacity of a mining lake reservoir result in higher releases from other reservoirs and slightly reduced summer discharges in downstream river sections.}, language = {en} }