@misc{PannhorstDost, author = {Pannhorst, Matthias and Dost, Florian}, title = {A Life-Course View on Ageing Consumers: Old-Age Trajectories and Gender Differences}, series = {Applied Research in Quality of Life}, volume = {17}, journal = {Applied Research in Quality of Life}, number = {2}, issn = {1871-2576}, doi = {10.1007/s11482-021-09934-6}, pages = {1157 -- 1180}, abstract = {This study presents a dynamic, model-based view of consumers' ageing developments, focused on gender differences, to uncover the pathways and socioeconomic transitions that female and male consumers take through old age. The analysis of longitudinal survey data spanning 15 years uses a latent Markov dynamic cluster model with transitions over time. The resulting life courses allow an exploration of lifestyle-related changes in multiple consumer well-being variables beyond age 50. Substantial well-being differences appear in the ageing paths of men and women. In both cases, a dominant chronological sequence through old age is complemented by less common transitions, rarely associated with advanced age. Although the model does not use chronological age as an independent variable, it outperforms purely agebased, or age- cohort-, and period-based models in predicting old-age consumer wellbeing. These results highlight the importance of considering within-cohort diversity when modelling the accompaniments of old age: while some older consumers enjoy active lifestyles, others of similar age succumb to depression and loneliness, rendering age an insufficient predictor of well-being states. In the future, the presented model could be matched with other, even cross-sectional, consumer survey data to help predict various dynamics in the ageing consumer population.}, language = {en} } @misc{RennieCleophasSykulskietal., author = {Rennie, Nicola and Cleophas, Catherine and Sykulski, Adam and Dost, Florian}, title = {Analysing and visualising bike-sharing demand with outliers}, series = {Discover Data}, journal = {Discover Data}, number = {1}, issn = {2731-6955}, doi = {10.1007/s44248-023-00001-z}, abstract = {Bike-sharing is a popular component of sustainable urban mobility. It requires anticipatory planning, e.g. of station locations and inventory, to balance expected demand and capacity. However, external factors such as extreme weather or glitches in public transport, can cause demand to deviate from baseline levels. Identifying such outliers keeps historic data reliable and improves forecasts. In this paper we show how outliers can be identified by clustering stations and applying a functional depth analysis. We apply our analysis techniques to the Washington D.C. Capital Bikeshare data set as the running example throughout the paper, but our methodology is general by design. Furthermore, we offer an array of meaningful visualisations to communicate findings and highlight patterns in demand. Last but not least, we formulate managerial recommendations on how to use both the demand forecast and the identified outliers in the bike-sharing planning process.}, language = {en} } @misc{BogodistovDost, author = {Bogodistov, Yevgen and Dost, Florian}, title = {Proximity Begins with a Smile, But Which One? Associating Non-duchenne Smiles with Higher Psychological Distance}, series = {Frontiers in Psychology}, journal = {Frontiers in Psychology}, number = {8}, issn = {1664-1078}, doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01374}, pages = {9}, language = {en} } @misc{ReichsteinBruschDostetal., author = {Reichstein, Thomas and Brusch, Ines and Dost, Florian and Brusch, Michael}, title = {Captivate Your Audience: Suggestions for Enhancing Social Media Engagement Through Captions}, series = {AMA Winter Academic Conference Proceedings, St. Pete Beach, Florida, on February 23-25, 2024}, journal = {AMA Winter Academic Conference Proceedings, St. Pete Beach, Florida, on February 23-25, 2024}, editor = {Cross, Samantha and Saboo, Alok}, publisher = {American Marketing Association}, address = {Chicago, IL}, isbn = {978-0-87757-018-9}, pages = {570 -- 572}, abstract = {Engagement is important for the success of social media offers. Accordingly, the goal of responsible social media managers is to generate the maximum engagement with their content. Extant research has already addressed the factors that are related to the creation of compelling content. However, very little attention has been paid to the caption, and thus to a part of the social media post that can be easily changed. Our aim is to measure the impact of caption characteristics on engagement. We use, text length, number of emojis, and hashtags as caption variables, as well as comments, likes, and shares as engagement variables. In two different datasets, one from a merchandise online store (Facebook, Study 1) and another from a travel influencer (Instagram, Study 2) we find a similar robust result: the analyses reveal s a non-linear relationship between caption text length and engagement that follows an inverted U-shape. It follows that, contrary to previous assumptions, longer captions of around 600 characters should be used to in¬crease engagement. Estimations show that an increase in engagement of about 20\% is possible.}, language = {en} } @misc{UrbigDostGeiger, author = {Urbig, Diemo and Dost, Florian and Geiger, Ingmar}, title = {Entrepreneurs misdiagnosing their ventures' innovativeness: The roles of causation and effectuation}, series = {26th Annual Interdisciplinary Conference on Entrepreneurship, Innovation and SMEs, 2023}, journal = {26th Annual Interdisciplinary Conference on Entrepreneurship, Innovation and SMEs, 2023}, abstract = {This text discusses the concept of misdiagnosis in entrepreneurial ventures, where managers' unrealistic optimism can lead to misaligned strategies and late pivots. The study explores the connection between misdiagnosis and decision logics (effectuation and causation) through motivated reasoning and beliefs. The researchers conducted a study with 266 ventures from innovative industries and measured misdiagnosis by comparing managers' judgments with external experts' assessments of venture innovativeness. The results show that causation logic positively influences misdiagnosis, but this effect is reduced when coupled with flexibility. The study highlights the importance of objective performance measures and suggests that motivated reasoning and beliefs explain the link between causation logic and misdiagnosis. Additionally, older and larger ventures with a prevalence of causation logic may experience more misdiagnosis and potential delays in innovation efforts. Flexibility is crucial for older ventures to remain innovative.}, language = {en} } @misc{ReichsteinBruschDostetal., author = {Reichstein, Thomas and Brusch, Ines and Dost, Florian and Brusch, Michael}, title = {How To Optimize Your Social Media Caption To Generate More Engagement :) \#Captionize \#SocialMedia}, series = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy, EMAC 2023 Annual, Odense, Denmark, May 24, 2023}, journal = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy, EMAC 2023 Annual, Odense, Denmark, May 24, 2023}, publisher = {European Marketing Academy}, abstract = {Maximizing engagement is an important issue for social media managers. Science has already provided guidance on how to make content more engaging. However, one easy-to-edit part of the social media post has received little attention: The caption. We show that the caption has an underestimated impact on engagement and we specifically address text length. The relationship between text length and engagement is not linear as described in previous literature but follows an inverted U-shape. Using field data, we estimate the optimal length of captions and provide surprising results. We show that captions are mostly too short instead of too long and that an optimal length can increase the engagement rate by up to 17\%.}, language = {en} } @misc{ReichsteinBruschDostetal., author = {Reichstein, Thomas and Brusch, Ines and Dost, Florian and Brusch, Michael}, title = {Maximizing Engagement Through Caption Optimization: Insights from Social Media Field Data}, series = {2023 ISMS Marketing Science Conference Proceedings}, journal = {2023 ISMS Marketing Science Conference Proceedings}, abstract = {Social media managers are constantly seeking ways to maximize engagement with their content. While prior research has shed light on strategies for creating engaging content, the impact of captions on engagement has been under-explored. Our study focuses specifically on the relationship between caption length and engagement in social media posts. Contrary to previous literature, we find that the relationship between caption length and engagement follows an inverted U-shape. Using field data from an omnichannel retailer (Facebook) and a travel influencer (Instagram), we determine the optimal caption length for maximizing engagement and present surprising results. Our results are robust for different model and identification specifications, indicating that captions are often too short, rather than too long, and that optimizing caption length in our case can increase engagement by up to 25\%. These findings have important implications for social media managers and influencers seeking to enhance the impact of their posts.}, language = {en} } @misc{PhielerDost, author = {Phieler, Ulrike and Dost, Florian}, title = {Does It Pay to Increase Public Messages in Nano-Influencer Campaigns? Investigating the Optimal Public Message Share for Sales and Return-On-Investment}, series = {2023 ISMS Marketing Science Conference Proceedings}, journal = {2023 ISMS Marketing Science Conference Proceedings}, publisher = {INFORMS}, pages = {3}, abstract = {Online influencer marketing has matured, and many managers now seek better performance with nano-influencers in seeding campaigns. Compared to macro-influencers, nano-influencers create more private (direct online or offline) brand messages that supposedly deliver more "persuasive punch". But such private messages lack the usual online tracking per message, forcing managers to ask nano-influencers for self-reports, or to estimate sales at a campaign level if they want to assess their own decisions. Therefore, little is known about how to set up effective nano-influencer campaigns: does it pay to increase the public message share in nano-influencer activity, in order to benefit from private and public influencer activity? Or does it defeat its purpose, diminishing nano-influencers' persuasiveness and total campaign results? This study analyses a unique campaign-level data set of various seeded marketing campaigns comprising the activity of 700,000 nano-influencers. We model the impact of nano-influencers' activity on incremental sales and return-on-investment (ROI) at the campaign level. To answer our questions, we include effects of public message share and optimal public message share and their interaction with activity; instrumenting both for identification, and controlling for campaign, marketing, and brand context. We find conditional optimal public message shares for both sales and ROI. The average campaign benefits most when increasing influencer activity (through design or incentives) at public message shares between 4\% and 5\%. This shows the importance of striking the right balance between nano� influencers' online and offline activity, and suggests a similar balance for combining nano- and macro-influencers in future campaign formats}, language = {en} } @misc{PhielerDost, author = {Phieler, Ulrike and Dost, Florian}, title = {Does It Pay to Increase Public Messages in Nano-Influencer Campaigns? Investigating the Optimal Public Message Share for Sales and Return-On-Investment}, series = {2023 ISMS Marketing Science Conference Proceedings}, journal = {2023 ISMS Marketing Science Conference Proceedings}, pages = {3}, abstract = {Online influencer marketing has matured, and many managers now seek better performance with nano-influencers in seeding campaigns. Compared to macro-influencers, nano-influencers create more private (direct online or offline) brand messages that supposedly deliver more "persuasive punch". But such private messages lack the usual online tracking per message, forcing managers to ask nano-influencers for self-reports, or to estimate sales at a campaign level if they want to assess their own decisions. Therefore, little is known about how to set up effective nano-influencer campaigns: does it pay to increase the public message share in nano-influencer activity, in order to benefit from private and public influencer activity? Or does it defeat its purpose, diminishing nano-influencers' persuasiveness and total campaign results? This study analyses a unique campaign-level data set of various seeded marketing campaigns comprising the activity of 700,000 nano-influencers. We model the impact of nano-influencers' activity on incremental sales and return-on-investment (ROI) at the campaign level. To answer our questions, we include effects of public message share and optimal public message share and their interaction with activity; instrumenting both for identification, and controlling for campaign, marketing, and brand context. We find conditional optimal public message shares for both sales and ROI. The average campaign benefits most when increasing influencer activity (through design or incentives) at public message shares between 4\% and 5\%. This shows the importance of striking the right balance between nano-influencers' online and offline activity, and suggests a similar balance for combining nano- and macro-influencers in future campaign formats.}, language = {en} } @misc{BodenMaierDost, author = {Boden, Joe and Maier, Erik and Dost, Florian}, title = {The Effect of Electronic Shelf Labels on Store Revenue}, series = {International Journal of Electronic Commerce}, volume = {24}, journal = {International Journal of Electronic Commerce}, number = {4}, issn = {1557-9301}, doi = {10.1080/10864415.2020.1806472}, pages = {527 -- 550}, abstract = {Today's retailers have a strategic imperative to integrate their channels. Some have implemented electronic shelf labels (ESL) to replace paper tags to technologically enable the omnichannel transformation by aligning the presentation of price and product information between online and offline channels. However, consumer reactions to ESL are yet unexplored. They could be positive or negative: on one hand, the fear of frequent price changes, a known phenomenon in e-commerce, could spread to offline channels and reduce consumer purchase intent and overall revenue; on the other hand, ESL could prevent showrooming by signaling price consistency and offering consistent information (e.g., including reviews) between the on- and offline channels. We explore a retailer data set that allows isolating the "mere ESL effect", as the retailer's pricing strategy remained unchanged over the introduction of ESL (i.e., no dynamic pricing), but the presentation of the price and product information was integrated through ESL. A difference-in-difference analysis establishes that revenue in product categories in which ESL was introduced grows at the expense of those product categories in which it was not introduced. Visitor numbers are not affected by introducing ESL. This finding supports the adoption of e-commerce capabilities in a brick-and-mortar store as it could help prevent shopper behavior aimed at exploiting channel differences (i.e., showrooming for price or more information).}, language = {en} } @misc{DostPhieler, author = {Dost, Florian and Phieler, Ulrike}, title = {How To Set Up Seeded Marketing Campaigns with Offline-Focused Nano-Influencers That Create Engagement, Sales, and Return-On-Investment}, series = {Reconnecting and reconceiving the marketplace : AMA Winter Academic Conference 2023 : AMA educators proceedings volume 34 : online, 6 February, Nashville, Tennessee, USA, 10 - 12 February 2023, part 1}, journal = {Reconnecting and reconceiving the marketplace : AMA Winter Academic Conference 2023 : AMA educators proceedings volume 34 : online, 6 February, Nashville, Tennessee, USA, 10 - 12 February 2023, part 1}, publisher = {American Marketing Association}, address = {Chicago, ILL.}, isbn = {978-0-87757-015-8}, pages = {194 -- 196}, abstract = {Marketers know the majority of impactful product and brand recommendations happen in offline conversations. To become part of these conversations, marketers increasingly utilize thousands of nano-influencers---ordinary consumers who "buzz" about a brand---with specialized marketing formats: seeded marketing campaigns (SMCs). The idea is to equip a large number of nano-influencers with the product or brand to be marketed, then encourage them to share their brand experiences and excitement with their peers. Overall, the created seed activity from SMCs has been shown to increase sales (Dost et al. 2019, Chae et al. 2017, Godes and Mayzlin 2009) at comparably low cost, which makes SMCs an attractive marketing mix addition for managers. The key challenge with SMCs, and a major difference to marketing campaigns with professional online influencers, is that nano-influencer activity is not contractually specified, and managers cannot economically engage with thousands of nano-influencers individually. Instead, managers have to rely on their initial campaign setup decisions to activate nano-influencers. SMC setup comprises SMC size and selection (how many nano-influencers, and who from where to select?), SMC content (which products and incentives to send the nano-influencers?), and SMC timing (how long should the campaign run?). Managers actively seek advice from literature to improve their setup decisions; however, extant research offers them only incomplete setup recommendations. This leaves managers at a loss and complicates result- and cost-conscious campaigns set-ups. With a unique dataset of 148 SMCs comprising the activity of nearly 700,000 nano� influencers and covering about a twentieth of all SMCs in the EU during data collection, we comprehensively model how setup decisions affect all relevant campaign outcomes---seed activity, sales, cost, and return-on-investment---while considering marketing and brand context. Our cross-campaign data enables a comparison of various SMC setups to find out which of managers' available setup decisions aid in planning effective and/or efficient SMCs. Results show that campaign success lies mostly in managers' hands, as setup decisions show the highest impact on campaign outcomes. Brand context plays only a minor role---contrasting organic word-of-mouth settings. Marketing context, such as parallel advertising or product price, matter differently, depending on the campaign goal. We identify trade-offs between effective brand building (maximum seed activity), effective promotion (maximum sales), and efficient (maximum return-on-investment) campaigns, reconciling conflicting suggestions from extant research. Our model predicts that managers could increase seed activity by 97\%, sales by 162\%, or return-on-investment by 100\% compared to current practice.}, language = {en} } @misc{DostMaier, author = {Dost, Florian and Maier, Erik}, title = {Promoting Price Discounts across Channels: The Role of Discount Level and Product Sales Frequency}, series = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy, EMAC 2023 Annual, Odense, Denmark, May 24, 2023}, journal = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy, EMAC 2023 Annual, Odense, Denmark, May 24, 2023}, publisher = {European Marketing Academy}, issn = {2709-1589}, abstract = {The most common promotional activity are price discounts, and retailers have to choose whether to further promote their price discounts with ads in offline (e.g., print) or online (e.g., banner ads) channels. However, retail managers lack guidance for which promotional channel (offline or online) would support price discounts best and what types of products (high or low sales frequency) would benefit most. Using a field experiment, we disentangle the interacting effects of price discounts (at various discount levels) and their supporting promotional channel. We find that digi-tal promotions of price discounts are more effective than non-digital print campaigns to increase sales beyond the base price discount effect. In addition, the product's sales frequency matters: rela-tively, digital promotions best support price-discounted low-sales-frequency products, and steeply discounted high-sales-frequency products receive additional support from offline ads.}, language = {en} } @misc{SchmidtMaierDost, author = {Schmidt, Lennard and Maier, Erik and Dost, Florian}, title = {Location-Based Interactions with Geographically Targeted Advertising}, series = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy, Budapest, May 24 - 27, 2022}, journal = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy, Budapest, May 24 - 27, 2022}, publisher = {European Marketing Academy}, pages = {2}, language = {en} } @misc{RennieCleophasSykulskietal., author = {Rennie, Nicola and Cleophas, Catherine and Sykulski, Adam and Dost, Florian}, title = {Analysing and visualising bike sharing demand with outliers}, series = {arXiv}, journal = {arXiv}, doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2204.06112}, pages = {1 -- 45}, abstract = {Bike-sharing is a popular component of sustainable urban mobility. It requires anticipatory planning, e.g. of terminal locations and inventory, to balance expected demand and capacity. However, external factors such as extreme weather or glitches in public transport, can cause demand to deviate from baseline levels. Identifying such outliers keeps historic data reliable and improves forecasts. In this paper we show how outliers can be identified by clustering terminals and applying a functional depth analysis. We apply our analysis techniques to the Washington D.C. Capital Bikeshare data set as the running example throughout the paper, but our methodology is general by design. Furthermore, we offer an array of meaningful visualisations to communicate findings and highlight patterns in demand. Last but not least, we formulate managerial recommendations on how to use both the demand forecast and the identified outliers in the bike-sharing planning process.}, language = {en} } @misc{SchmidtMaierDost, author = {Schmidt, Lennard and Maier, Erik and Dost, Florian}, title = {Challenging the Location Paradigm: Parsimoniously Predicting Store Performance with Urban Scaling}, series = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy (EMAC), 50th Annual Conference}, journal = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy (EMAC), 50th Annual Conference}, pages = {1 -- 10}, abstract = {Location is considered the most important driver of retail store performance; hence, retailers invest in extensive location research, utilizing expensive rich data. This research proposes an alternative, singular, freely obtainable predictor for location potentials. Drawing on the system scaling literature outside of marketing, we suggest that measures of the urban scale in a store's trading area are a substitute for a multitude of traditional location measures, such as demographic or socio-economic variables. We demonstrate that our scale measure, the route factor calculated from road map data, performs on par with a common set of traditional predictors in a large dataset of supermarket sales. Moreover, our theory correctly predicts, and the analysis shows, a collinearity problem that has gone unrecognized in traditional store performance models. We validate our approach on a second variety-store dataset that covers a wider range of location conditions for generalizability.}, language = {en} } @misc{DostSchmidtMaier, author = {Dost, Florian and Schmidt, Lennard and Maier, Erik}, title = {The Filter Curve: Uncovering p-Hacking from filtering}, series = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy (EMAC), 50th Annual Conference}, journal = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy (EMAC), 50th Annual Conference}, pages = {1 -- 8}, abstract = {Many empirical studies filter participants (e.g., for incorrect attention checks or quick re-sponses), especially when using participant pools such as Amazon MTurk. Yet, there is no consensus on whether and how to filter. This might originate from different perspectives on filtering participants: it may be evaluated positively (e.g., as it might be necessary to prevent inattentive participants from biasing results) or negatively (e.g., as it may enable p-hacking). This research aims to bridge these opposites: first, we empirically compare the effects of different filters and filter levels on validity, reliability, power and effects sizes of the results. Second, we introduce the Filter Curve and our R-package "FiltR" as a means to recognize filtering which might be used to p-hack results. We suggest that filtering is not per se bad - although some filters decrease reliability and validity - but that researchers should be trans-parent in how sensitive results are for different filter combinations.}, language = {en} } @misc{WernerDost, author = {Werner, Bastian and Dost, Florian}, title = {Behavioral Pricing and Innovative Pricing Mechanisms in Purchase Decisions- a Review and Recommandations for Future Research}, series = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy, EMAC 2023 Annual, Odense, Denmark, May 24, 2023}, journal = {Proceedings of the European Marketing Academy, EMAC 2023 Annual, Odense, Denmark, May 24, 2023}, language = {en} } @misc{RennieCleophasSykulskietal., author = {Rennie, Nicola and Cleophas, Catherine and Sykulski, Adam and Dost, Florian}, title = {Identifying and responding to outlier demand in revenue management}, series = {European Journal of Operational Research}, volume = {293}, journal = {European Journal of Operational Research}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1016/j.ejor.2021.01.002}, pages = {1015 -- 1030}, abstract = {Revenue management strongly relies on accurate forecasts. Thus, when extraordinary events cause outlier demand, revenue management systems need to recognise this and adapt both forecast and controls. Many passenger transport service providers, such as railways and airlines, control the sale of tickets through revenue management. State-of-the-art systems in these industries rely on analyst expertise to identify outlier demand both online (within the booking horizon) and offline (in hindsight). So far, little research focuses on automating and evaluating the detection of outlier demand in this context. To remedy this, we propose a novel approach, which detects outliers using functional data analysis in combination with time series extrapolation. We evaluate the approach in a simulation framework, which generates outliers by varying the demand model. The results show that functional outlier detection yields better detection rates than alternative approaches for both online and offline analyses. Depending on the category of outliers, extrapolation further increases online detection performance. We also apply the procedure to a set of empirical data to demonstrate its practical implications. By evaluating the full feedback-driven system of forecast and optimisation, we generate insight on the asymmetric effects of positive and negative demand outliers. We show that identifying instances of outlier demand and adjusting the forecast in a timely fashion substantially increases revenue compared to what is earned when ignoring outliers.}, language = {en} } @misc{GeigerDostSchoenhoffetal., author = {Geiger, Ingmar and Dost, Florian and Sch{\"o}nhoff, Alejandro and Kleinaltenkamp, Michael}, title = {Which types of multi-stage marketing increase direct customers' willingness-to-pay? Evidence from a scenario-based experiment in a B2B setting}, series = {Industrial Marketing Management}, volume = {47}, journal = {Industrial Marketing Management}, number = {2}, issn = {0019-8501}, doi = {10.1016/j.indmarman.2015.02.042}, pages = {175 -- 189}, language = {en} } @misc{DostGeiger, author = {Dost, Florian and Geiger, Ingmar}, title = {Value-based pricing in competitive situations with multi-product price-response maps}, series = {Journal of Business Research}, volume = {76}, journal = {Journal of Business Research}, issn = {0148- 2963}, doi = {10.1016/j.jbusres.2017.01.004}, pages = {219 -- 236}, language = {en} }