@misc{JalboutGengeMuesgens, author = {Jalbout, Eddy and Genge, Lucien and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {H2Europe: an analysis of long-term hydrogen import-potentials from the MENA region}, series = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, journal = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-6654-0896-7}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921055}, pages = {1 -- 7}, abstract = {Our paper assesses the economic viability of green hydrogen exports from the middle east and north Africa to the EU in the long-term (for the year 2050). For this purpose, we simulate a techno-economic hydrogen supply chain based on generation from renewable energy sources. The chain of production, conversion, and transportation costs, in combination with potentials, yields a merit order of hydrogen supply. The paper focuses on one low-cost option for imports from the middle east and north Africa region. In addition, it provides a classification of additional options. We find that due to proximity, retrofitting and potentially even installing new pipelines from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia could provide nearly half the expected European demand of 60 million tons p.a. by 2050. Based on our assumptions, the costs would be around 2 €/kgH 2 .}, language = {en} } @incollection{MuesgensRadke, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Radke, Silvian}, title = {Warmer Lichtsturm - Umgang mit Erzeugungsspitzen aus PV und Wind : Arbeitspaket 1}, series = {Warmer Lichtsturm - Umgang mit Erzeugungsspitzen aus PV und Wind}, volume = {2024}, booktitle = {Warmer Lichtsturm - Umgang mit Erzeugungsspitzen aus PV und Wind}, pages = {13 -- 30}, abstract = {{\"U}ber das Scientific Advisory \& Project Board Die vorliegende Kurzstudie wurde von einem Konsortium entwickelt, das sich aus Mitgliedern des 50Hertz Scientific Advisory and Project Boards (SAPB) zusammensetzt. Das SAPB ist ein Kreis von Professorinnen und Professoren, die 50Hertz darin unterst{\"u}tzen, neue Denk- und L{\"o}sungsans{\"a}tze zu entwickeln und Erkenntnisse aus der Forschung - wo angemessen - in die Praxis von 50Hertz zu {\"u}bernehmen. Disclaimer Im Kontext der durch 50Hertz beauftragten SAPB-Studien forschen die beteiligten Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler frei und ergebnisoffen. Alle durch das Konsortium entwickelten Handlungsempfehlungen werden von 50Hertz eingehend gepr{\"u}ft und diskutiert, letztendlich entsprechen aber nicht alle Positionen denen von 50Hertz.}, language = {de} } @misc{MuesgensGenge, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Genge, Lucien}, title = {European hydrogen infrastructure planning : insights from the TransHyDE project system analysis}, series = {Flagship Project TransHyDE}, volume = {2024}, journal = {Flagship Project TransHyDE}, pages = {67}, abstract = {The white paper was developed by a selected authorship of the TransHyDE Project System Analysis. The contents of the TransHyDE publications are produced in the project independently of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research.}, language = {en} } @book{MuesgensBade, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Bade, Alexander}, title = {Energy trading and risk management}, edition = {1. Auflage}, publisher = {Springer Link}, address = {Schweiz}, isbn = {978-3-031-57237-1}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-031-57238-8}, pages = {211}, abstract = {This book offers important insights into the intricacies of energy trading and risk management to students and professionals in the liberalized electricity and natural gas markets. In its opening chapter, the book delves into fundamental concepts, including price formation on wholesale markets. The various market places and trading products are presented, and the distinguishing characteristics of electricity and natural gas compared to other commodities are emphasised. Moving forward, the next chapter concentrates on portfolio management, offering insights into the trading process through the perspectives of various agents. It begins with proprietary traders and progresses to encompass the portfolio management activities of integrated companies responsible for both generation assets and a retail client base. The book then looks at risk management, explaining the diverse risks that impact the value of energy portfolios inthe market. It places emphasis on credit risk, price risk, quantity risk, and product liquidity risk as the most influential factors and presents effective practices for their management. Furthermore, readers will gain a comprehensive understanding of how to manage quantity risk and its interconnectedness with price risk. Additionally, the book addresses the measurement of product liquidity and its disparities across different energy market products. The book then looks at risk management, explaining the diverse risks that impact the value of energy portfolios inthe market. It places emphasis on credit risk, price risk, quantity risk, and product liquidity risk as the most influential factors and presents effective practices for their management. Furthermore, readers will gain a comprehensive understanding of how to manage quantity risk and its interconnectedness with price risk. Additionally, the book addresses the measurement of product liquidity and its disparities across different energy market products. In summary, this book is an accessible introduction and a concise reference for students and professionals across all fields of energy.}, language = {en} } @misc{BenAmorAkkalDeviMuesgens, author = {Ben Amor, Souhir and Akkal Devi, Prashanth and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Meta-forecasting for solar power generation: algorithm-based swarm intelligence}, series = {20th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, journal = {20th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, publisher = {IEEE}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM60825.2024.10608959}, pages = {5}, abstract = {Our paper introduces a dynamic meta-forecasting approach that optimizes the weights of several available forecasts using a swarm intelligence algorithm, named Particle Swarm Optimization. This algorithm was chosen for its efficiency and convergence performance in solving optimization problems. We apply the methodology to solar photovoltaic day-ahead forecasts utilizing regional data from Germany. Our sample covers the period between 2019 and 2022 at a quarter-hourly frequency. We provide day-ahead forecasts using a rolling estimation window. Alongside benchmark models, Particle Swarm Optimization predictive accuracy is comparable to state-of-the-art models, particularly a dynamic elastic net benchmark model. However, there are slight differences. The investor can choose between Particle Swarm Optimization for its simple implementation and computational efficiency, or dynamic elastic net models for its parameters explainability.}, language = {en} } @misc{GrueblerMuesgens, author = {Gr{\"u}bler, Lene Marie and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Applying spatial decomposition in energy system models}, series = {20th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, volume = {2024}, journal = {20th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM60825.2024.10608869}, pages = {8}, abstract = {The European energy transition requires the expansion of renewable generators and consequently, the expansion of grid infrastructure and flexibility options. When modelling complex energy systems, the application of decomposition techniques is reasonable to keep models computationally tractable. Our paper focuses on the efficient optimization of energy systems covering large geographic areas. To accelerate the solving process, we apply a variant of Benders decomposition, which does not only apply temporal but also spatial decomposition. We show that by applying our decomposition approach, the solving time decreases up to 75\% compared to the runtime of the equivalent monolithic model solved by a commercial solver and the barrier algorithm. Furthermore, we show that additionally applying spatial decomposition results in time savings compared to an only temporally decomposed approach.}, language = {en} } @misc{BenAmorMoebiusMuesgens, author = {Ben Amor, Souhir and M{\"o}bius, Thonas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Bridging an energy system model with an ensemble deep-learning approach for electricity price forecasting}, series = {General Economics (econ.GN)}, volume = {2024}, journal = {General Economics (econ.GN)}, doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2411.04880}, pages = {1 -- 49}, abstract = {This paper combines a techno-economic energy system model with an econometric model to maximise electricity price forecasting accuracy. The proposed combination model is tested on the German day-ahead wholesale electricity market. Our paper also benchmarks the results against several econometric alternatives. Lastly, we demonstrate the economic value of improved price estimators maximising the revenue from an electric storage resource. The results demonstrate that our integrated model improves overall forecasting accuracy by 18 \%, compared to available literature benchmarks. Furthermore, our robustness checks reveal that a) the Ensemble Deep Neural Network model performs best in our dataset and b) adding output from the techno-economic energy systems model as econometric model input improves the performance of all econometric models. The empirical relevance of the forecast improvement is confirmed by the results of the exemplary storage optimisation, in which the integration of the techno-economic energy syst}, language = {en} } @misc{SgarciuMuesgensOsorioetal., author = {Sgarciu, Smaranda and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Osorio, Sebastian and Pahle, Michael}, title = {Is Germany on track to achieve 2030 climate and energy targets?}, series = {List Forum f{\"u}r Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik}, volume = {49}, journal = {List Forum f{\"u}r Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik}, issn = {2364-3943}, doi = {10.1007/s41025-023-00255-0}, pages = {93 -- 107}, abstract = {The future development of CO2emissions in the German electricity sector by 2030 is unclear: On the one hand, the amendment to the Climate Protection Act (from August 2021) aims to tighten emission reduction targets in order to promote the path to a decarbonised energy system. On the other hand, the complex interplay between the main instruments for reducing carbon emissions, fuel prices and the current energy shortage as a result of Russia's attack on Ukraine is creating pressure for an increase in emissions. In our study, we examine whether Germany is on track to achieve its climate protection targets for 2030 and which measures can increase the likelihood. To do this, we use an energy system model parameterized to reflect the situation in the energy market in 2021, i.e. before Russia's attack on Ukraine. In addition to the quantitative side, we provide a qualitative analysis of the energy market in the light of recent events. We stress the importance of introducing a carbon price floor that can be dynamically changed in response to the development of other market forces and policies. This instrument would institutionalize a more plausible path to decarbonization and provide reassurance to investors.}, language = {en} } @misc{HoffmannByrukuriGangadharMuesgens, author = {Hoffmann, Christin and Byrukuri Gangadhar, Shanmukha Srinivas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Smells Like Green Energy - Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Impact of Bioenergy Production on Residential Property Values}, series = {SSRN eLibrary}, journal = {SSRN eLibrary}, issn = {1556-5068}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4760312}, pages = {1 -- 26}, abstract = {Residents' acceptance of bioenergy is a prerequisite for its fast and efficient development but is ambiguously discussed in practice and research. We interpret a causal impact of bioenergy plant commissioning on housing prices in their vicinity as the average net external effects for residents. We utilize bioenergy plant construction data in Germany between 2007 and 2022 as a quasi-experiment with naturally occurring control groups in their vicinity and apply recently improved difference-in-difference estimation procedures to analyze instantaneous and heterogeneous treatment effects. We find a significant and negative impact on housing prices if plants use gaseous biofuel, generate electricity on-site, and are medium-sized. The magnitude of the effect is comparable to those for solar fields. In contrast, we find no impact for small and large bioenergy plants and those that use solid or liquid biofuels.}, language = {en} } @misc{SgarciuScholzMuesgens, author = {Sgarciu, Smaranda and Scholz, Daniel and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {How CO2 prices accelerate decarbonisation - The case of coal-fired generation in Germany}, series = {Energy Policy}, volume = {173}, journal = {Energy Policy}, issn = {0301-4215}, doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113375}, abstract = {This paper analyses the potential impact of the world's two main coal phase-out instruments: 1) direct regulatory intervention restricting the operation of existing coal-fired generation capacity and prohibiting investment in new capacity and 2) market-based CO2-pricing instruments that make emission-intensive coal-fired generation less competitive. We quantify these instruments' potential effects in the empirical setting of Germany, where both instruments are employed concurrently. However, this paper's approach and methodology can be applied in any jurisdiction or energy system worldwide. Our paper provides quantitative results with a pan-European partial-equilibrium electricity system model. The model applies an innovative three-step approach. Step 1 solves an investment and dispatch problem with reduced technical and temporal complexity for European countries. Step 2 computes the dispatch problem at a bihourly resolution and step 3 solves the investment and dispatch problem for Germany with increased technical complexity. Our results confirm that both a regulated phase-out as well as a price on CO2 emissions can reduce the amount of coal-fired generation in an electricity system. If CO2 prices remain at current levels, coal-fired power plants leave the market significantly before the regulated phase-out date, reducing demand for employees in the Lusatian lignite industry. Regions and federal governments should take this finding into account when planning and preparing for structural change.}, language = {en} }