@misc{HoffmannByrukuriGangadharMuesgens, author = {Hoffmann, Christin and Byrukuri Gangadhar, Shanmukha Srinivas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Smells Like Green Energy - Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Impact of Bioenergy Production on Residential Property Values}, series = {SSRN eLibrary}, journal = {SSRN eLibrary}, issn = {1556-5068}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4760312}, pages = {1 -- 26}, abstract = {Residents' acceptance of bioenergy is a prerequisite for its fast and efficient development but is ambiguously discussed in practice and research. We interpret a causal impact of bioenergy plant commissioning on housing prices in their vicinity as the average net external effects for residents. We utilize bioenergy plant construction data in Germany between 2007 and 2022 as a quasi-experiment with naturally occurring control groups in their vicinity and apply recently improved difference-in-difference estimation procedures to analyze instantaneous and heterogeneous treatment effects. We find a significant and negative impact on housing prices if plants use gaseous biofuel, generate electricity on-site, and are medium-sized. The magnitude of the effect is comparable to those for solar fields. In contrast, we find no impact for small and large bioenergy plants and those that use solid or liquid biofuels.}, language = {en} } @techreport{BadeKaesoLienertetal., author = {Bade, Alexander and K{\"a}so, Mathias and Lienert, Martin and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Schmitz, Christoph and Wissen, Ralf}, title = {Ausgestaltung eines Auktionsmodells f{\"u}r EE-Anlagen in Deutschland}, publisher = {r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.]}, address = {K{\"o}ln ; Cottbus}, pages = {90}, language = {de} } @misc{NikodinoskaKaesoMuesgens, author = {Nikodinoska, Dragana and K{\"a}so, Mathias and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {306, Part A}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {1872-9118}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117983}, pages = {17}, abstract = {Precise renewable energy feed-in forecasts are essential for an effective and efficient integration of renewables into energy systems, and research contributions that help to reduce the uncertainty related to renewables are in high demand. This importance will increase in the future, as renewable energies are the world's fastest growing electricity generation capacities. Forecast combinations have been empirically proven to outperform individual forecasting models in many disciplines. Our work uses an elastic net method, with cross-validation and rolling window estimation, in the context of renewable energy forecasts. Namely, the forecast combinations are obtained using regional data from Germany for both solar photovoltaic and wind feed-in during the period 2010-2018, with quarter-hourly frequency. The dynamic elastic net estimation, preceded by dynamic data pre-processing, improves forecasting accuracy for both photovoltaic and wind power feed-in forecasts. Moreover, our forecasting framework outperforms benchmarks such as simple average and individual forecasts. Our forecasting framework can be applied widely to estimate renewable power in other countries, systems, or individual power plants.}, language = {en} } @incollection{MuesgensOckenfels, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Ockenfels, Axel}, title = {Marktdesign in der Energiewirtschaft}, series = {Umwelt und Energie : Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Seminar Ottobeuren}, booktitle = {Umwelt und Energie : Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Seminar Ottobeuren}, editor = {Franz, Wolfgang and Ramser, Hans-J{\"u}rgen and Stadler, Manfred}, publisher = {Mohr Siebeck}, address = {T{\"u}bingen}, isbn = {978-3-16-149104-7}, pages = {247 -- 272}, language = {de} } @techreport{MuesgensSchulz, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Schulz, Walter}, title = {Energiereport IV: Die Entwicklung der Energiem{\"a}rkte bis zum Jahr 2030 - Energiewirtschaftliche Referenzprognose}, publisher = {Vulkan Verlag}, address = {Essen}, language = {de} } @misc{JansenStaffellKitzingetal., author = {Jansen, Malte and Staffell, Iain and Kitzing, Lena and Quoilin, Sylvain and Wiggelinkhuizen, Edwin and Bulder, Bernard and Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Offshore wind competitiveness in mature markets without subsidy}, series = {Nature Energy}, volume = {5}, journal = {Nature Energy}, number = {8}, issn = {2058-7546}, doi = {10.1038/s41560-020-0661-2}, pages = {614 -- 622}, language = {en} } @misc{BadeMuesgens, author = {Bade, Alexander and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Verteilungsaspekte einer Harmonisierung der europ{\"a}ischen Klimaschutzmaßnahmen}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, volume = {40}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, number = {1}, issn = {0343-5377}, doi = {10.1007/s12398-016-0170-y}, pages = {33 -- 40}, language = {de} } @misc{BadeMuesgens, author = {Bade, Alexander and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Auswirkungen eines 'Wassertiefenbonus' bei Ausschreibungen f{\"u}r Windenergieanlagen auf See}, series = {ET Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen}, volume = {66}, journal = {ET Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen}, number = {10}, issn = {0013-743X}, pages = {25 -- 27}, language = {de} } @techreport{BadeGrowitschLienertetal., author = {Bade, Alexander and Growitsch, Christian and Lienert, Martin and M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Schmitz, Christoph and Wolf, A.}, title = {Aktionsprogramm Klimaschutz 2020: Konsequenzen potenzieller Kraftwerksstilllegungen}, publisher = {r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.]}, address = {K{\"o}ln ; Hamburg ; Cottbus}, pages = {48}, language = {de} } @techreport{BadeMuesgens, author = {Bade, Alexander and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Warum brauchen wir eine st{\"a}rkere Harmonisierung der Energiepolitik in der EU?}, publisher = {r2b energy consulting GmbH [u.a.]}, address = {K{\"o}ln ; Cottbus}, language = {de} } @misc{NguyenMuesgens, author = {Nguyen, Thi Ngoc and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {A Meta-Analysis of Solar Forecasting Based on Skill Score}, series = {arXiv}, journal = {arXiv}, doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2208.10536}, pages = {1 -- 55}, abstract = {We conduct the first comprehensive meta-analysis of deterministic solar forecasting based on skill score, screening 1,447 papers from Google Scholar and reviewing the full texts of 320 papers for data extraction. A database of 4,687 points was built and analyzed with multivariate adaptive regression spline modelling, partial dependence plots, and linear regression. The marginal impacts on skill score of ten factors were quantified. The analysis shows the non-linearity and complex interaction between variables in the database. Forecast horizon has a central impact and dominates other factors' impacts. Therefore, the analysis of solar forecasts should be done separately for each horizon. Climate zone variables have statistically significant correlation with skill score. Regarding inputs, historical data and spatial temporal information are highly helpful. For intra-day, sky and satellite images show the most importance. For day-ahead, numerical weather predictions and locally measured meteorological data are very efficient. All forecast models were compared. Ensemble-hybrid models achieve the most accurate forecasts for all horizons. Hybrid models show superiority for intra-hour while image-based methods are the most efficient for intra-day forecasts. More training data can enhance skill score. However, over-fitting is observed when there is too much training data (longer than 2000 days). There has been a substantial improvement in solar forecast accuracy, especially in recent years. More improvement is observed for intra-hour and intra-day than day-ahead forecasts. By controlling for the key differences between forecasts, including location variables, our findings can be applied globally.}, language = {en} } @misc{JalboutGengeMuesgens, author = {Jalbout, Eddy and Genge, Lucien and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {H2Europe: an analysis of long-term hydrogen import-potentials from the MENA region}, series = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, journal = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), 13-15 September 2022, Ljubljana, Slovenia}, publisher = {IEEE}, address = {Piscataway, NJ}, isbn = {978-1-6654-0896-7}, issn = {2165-4093}, doi = {10.1109/EEM54602.2022.9921055}, pages = {1 -- 7}, abstract = {Our paper assesses the economic viability of green hydrogen exports from the middle east and north Africa to the EU in the long-term (for the year 2050). For this purpose, we simulate a techno-economic hydrogen supply chain based on generation from renewable energy sources. The chain of production, conversion, and transportation costs, in combination with potentials, yields a merit order of hydrogen supply. The paper focuses on one low-cost option for imports from the middle east and north Africa region. In addition, it provides a classification of additional options. We find that due to proximity, retrofitting and potentially even installing new pipelines from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia could provide nearly half the expected European demand of 60 million tons p.a. by 2050. Based on our assumptions, the costs would be around 2 €/kgH 2 .}, language = {en} } @misc{RiepinSgarciuBerneckeretal., author = {Riepin, Iegor and Sgarciu, Smaranda and Bernecker, Maximilian and M{\"o}bius, Thomas and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Grok It and Use It: Teaching Energy Systems Modeling}, series = {SSRN eLibrary}, journal = {SSRN eLibrary}, issn = {1556-5068}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4320978}, abstract = {This article details our experience developing and teaching an "Energy Systems Modeling" course, which sought to introduce graduate-level students to operations research, energy economics, and system modeling using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). In this paper, we focus on (i) the mathematical problems discussed in the course, (ii) the energy-related empirical interpretations of these mathematical problems, and (iii) the best teaching practices (i.e., our experiences regarding how to make the content interesting and accessible for students).}, language = {en} } @misc{WatermeyerMoebiusGrotheetal., author = {Watermeyer, Mira and M{\"o}bius, Thomas and Grothe, Oliver and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling}, series = {arXiv}, journal = {arXiv}, doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2304.09336}, pages = {1 -- 38}, abstract = {The accurate prediction of short-term electricity prices is vital for effective trading strategies, power plant scheduling, profit maximisation and efficient system operation. However, uncertainties in supply and demand make such predictions challenging. We propose a hybrid model that combines a techno-economic energy system model with stochastic models to address this challenge. The techno-economic model in our hybrid approach provides a deep understanding of the market. It captures the underlying factors and their impacts on electricity prices, which is impossible with statistical models alone. The statistical models incorporate non-techno-economic aspects, such as the expectations and speculative behaviour of market participants, through the interpretation of prices. The hybrid model generates both conventional point predictions and probabilistic forecasts, providing a comprehensive understanding of the market landscape. Probabilistic forecasts are particularly valuable because they account for market uncertainty, facilitating informed decision-making and risk management. Our model delivers state-of-the-art results, helping market participants to make informed decisions and operate their systems more efficiently.}, language = {en} } @misc{MuesgensOckenfels, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Ockenfels, Axel}, title = {Design von Informationsfeedback in Regelenergiem{\"a}rkten}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, volume = {35}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, number = {4}, issn = {1866-2765}, doi = {10.1007/s12398-011-0062-0}, pages = {249 -- 256}, abstract = {Auf vielen kontinentaleurop{\"a}ischen Energiem{\"a}rkten werden derzeit die Regeln f{\"u}r das Feedback auf Regelenergiem{\"a}rkten diskutiert: welche Informationen zu vergangenen Auktionen sollen wann ver{\"o}ffentlicht werden? Dieser Artikel beleuchtet Vor- und Nachteile verschiedener Feedbackpolitiken am Beispiel der Schweizer Regelenergiem{\"a}rkte. Die Ver{\"o}ffentlichung des Grenzleistungspreises ist in der Regel zu empfehlen. Dies gilt jedoch nicht f{\"u}r weitere Informationen (insbesondere extramarginale Gebote). Die optimale Feedbackpolitik h{\"a}ngt allerdings vom jeweiligen Marktdesign und von der Marktstruktur ab}, language = {de} } @misc{KreuzMuesgens, author = {Kreuz, Sebastian and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Asymmetric Diesel Retail Pricing Strategies: Depending on Brands and Population Densities?}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, volume = {43}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Energiewirtschaft}, number = {2}, issn = {0343-5377}, doi = {10.1007/s12398-019-00252-x}, pages = {117 -- 130}, language = {en} } @techreport{EngelhornMuesgens, author = {Engelhorn, Thorsten and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Why is Germany's energy transition so expensive? Quantifying costs from wind energy decentralisation}, publisher = {Brandenburgische Technische Universit{\"a}t}, address = {Cottbus ; Senftenberg}, pages = {35}, language = {en} } @techreport{RiepinMuesgens, author = {Riepin, Iegor and M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {Seasonal Flexibility in the European Natural Gas Market}, publisher = {University of Cambridge, Energy Policy Research Group}, address = {Cambridge}, pages = {28}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Muesgens, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix}, title = {The Economics of Wholesale Electricity Markets}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t}, address = {K{\"o}ln}, pages = {VII, 119}, abstract = {Die Dissertation analysiert die {\"o}konomischen Zusammenh{\"a}nge und Wechselwirkungen auf Großhandelsm{\"a}rkten f{\"u}r Strom.}, language = {en} } @techreport{MuesgensNeuhoff, author = {M{\"u}sgens, Felix and Neuhoff, Karsten}, title = {Modelling Dynamic Constraints in Electricity Markets and the Costs of Uncertain Wind Output}, publisher = {University of Cambridge, Electricity Policy Research Group}, address = {Cambridge}, pages = {26}, language = {en} }